WTI Crude Oil Trading

Also shorted wti 53.855 based on h4 candle (gravestone doji)

WTI: BULLS TAKING BACK CONTROL TO TEST THE CRITICAL $54.50 RESISTANCE LEVEL, AIMING FOR PRIOR ASCENDING WEDGE SUPPORT
14 February 2019, 22:15

 

1. Oil prices on Thursday have been whipsawed on opposing pressures, although the upside appears to be the path of least resistance and bulls retained control.
2. West Texas Intermediate, (WTI), dropped in European trade from $54.66bbls to a low of $53.13bbls before bulls committed and sent prices back to a late US session high of $54.57bbls.

WTI moved in for a positive close on Thursday following a sharp sell-off that took out the prior day's lows only to attract hungry bulls again which left spot prices close to overnight highs. Investors are trying to second guess that outcome of trade talks that are ongoing between the US and China, with hot to cold headlines creating volatility in the market based on supply and demand fears. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer are meeting with China President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Friday, but the sentiment is not so positive following a WSJ and Bloomberg report that there are road bumps along the way.

Trade war talks hit a bump in the road
A major concern in markets is over corporate governance and structural reform, such as intellectual property protection, and, equal market access , which the US requires of any counterpart in a trade deal with China, something which is unlikely to get over the line and of which could seriously jeopardise any agreement being made before Trump's tariff deadline kicks in on March 1st. Previous reports in the week suggested that Trump was in-fact considering a 60-day extension of the deadline if talks continued to progress, lending support to the upside case for the price of oil and risk sentiment in general. However, the US and China "have made little progress so far" during talks in Beijing, according to a WSJ report and a more recent Bloomberg story. Corporate governance is "an extremely sensitive issue that is seen as a non-starter for Chinese leaders," the Bloomberg story argued, adding, "The hurdles raise questions about whether negotiators can meet Trump’s criteria for pushing back the March 1 deadline for more than doubling tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods".

However on the other hand, there are more recent headlines from the South China Morning Post, citing sources, that acknowledges that said road bump, but also reports that, "in the latest round of talks underway in Beijing, both sides also are discussing the possibility of the US' removing the 10 per cent punitive tariffs it has imposed on US$200 billion of Chinese products, while leaving the 25 per cent tariffs on US$50 billion of Chinese products unchanged."

Supply cuts add to upside case
However, lending support to the upside comes with Saudi Arabia, pledging earlier this week to cut output further in the coming months, according to the Financial Times that was citing oil minister Khalid al-Falih. The oil minister said the Saudis would cut an additional 500,000 barrels a day to take production to 9.8 million barrels a day in March. Russia also claims to be accelerating required cuts under the latest OPEC+ agreement. Alexander Novak, the Russian energy minister, said that February output levels should see a decline of about 150,000 barrels a day relative to December. Adding to the upside case, involuntary declines from Iran and Venezuela are also likely to underpin a bull market.

WTI levels
Despite the advance, bulls still have not crossed the line and need the price to close and hold above 54.50 for prospects of the 56 handle and placement back into the rising wedge once the recent highs at 55.89 are broken, targeting 60. Otherwise, the technical outlook remains bearish while below the rising wedges support line. However, the rise above the 23.6% Fibo retracement is encouraging. On the flip side, a break of 51.50 and the 27th Jan fractal low will open a run to 50.63 as the last defence for 50 the figure, and 7th Jan swing high at 49.96. On the wide, the bottom of the prior trend is down at 42.54 (top of reverse H&S head).

Shorted @ 55.45

Its now in Daily Resistance !

I've gone short on oil again.

I think it will form a double top (of sorts) from here and go back to the 51 area, after that another push up maybe 54ish and looks like back down to 48 area.

That being said anything can happen. The close for today was at the highs of the day and the week, so I expect next week some further attempt to push up as bulls will think they own this but it should fail by end of day or week; if not I'll move on with my life. I don't have to have every trade be a winner, I'll come back at another opportune time. However this is the sell zone for now (55-57).

Personally yes, it recently breached 55 which was a big resistance and it seems to be consolidating @56, I'm bullish on it expecting it to hit 64ish

WTI RECEDES FROM FRESH 2019 TOPS BEYOND THE $56.00 MARK
18 February 2019, 15:20

 

1. Prices of WTI exceed the $56.00 mark and clinch YTD peaks.
2. WTI advances for the second session in a row.
3. Oil rig count rose by 3 during last week to 857 active oil rigs.

Prices of the barrel of the American reference for the sweet light crude oil are hovering the $56.00 mark today, a tad lower than earlier 2019 tops near $56.30.

WTI up on USD-selling, trade hopes

The rally in crude oil remains well and sound on Monday, moving further north of the $56.00 mark per barrel, or fresh yearly highs.

In fact, prices of the WTI are extending the upside momentum since monthly lows in the vicinity of the $51.00 mark seen on February 11, always on the back of rising expectations of a positive outcome from the US-China trade talks, which are expected to resume this week in Washington.
Furthermore, the ongoing turmoil around Venezuelan output (or rather absence of it) plus comments from Saudi officials stressing the country could curb its output further is also sustaining the up move in prices.
Additional news around crude oil noted the OPEC cut its forecasts for the demand of its crude oil following prospects of slowing economy, while the EIA now sees US oil production ticking higher to 13.2 mbpd in 2020 (from 12.9 mbpd in the previous report).

What to look for around WTI
Hopes of a US-China trade deal have lent extra oxygen to crude oil prices in past sessions and this should remain a key driver in the very near term ahead of this week’s negotiations. On the broader picture, the ongoing OPEC+ agreement to curb oil production, US sanctions against Venezuelan and Iranian oil exports and the so-called ‘Saudi Put’ should keep a firm floor under crude prices.

WTI significant levels
At the moment the barrel of WTI is up 0.70% at $56.13 facing the next hurdle at $56.24 (2019 high Feb.18) ahead of $57.05 (100-day SMA) and then $58.00 (high Nov.16 2018). On the downside, a breakdown of $53.82 (10-day SMA) would aim for $51.15 (low Feb.11) and finally $51.11 (55-day SMA).

Wao!. That's awesome

WTI HEADING BACK TOWARDS 2019 TOPS NEAR $ 56.80, API DATA EYED
19 February 2019, 12:27

1. Buoyed by a fresh round of US-China trade talks and tightening supplies amid OPEC output cuts.
2. Will it take out 56.80/57.00 barrier ahead of API data as full markets return?

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) stalled its minor correction from three-month tops of 56.73 in Asia and from there the bulls regained poise, now driving the rates back towards the YTD highs.

The black gold is seen extending the bounce from just ahead of the 56 handle, despite mild risk-off action in the European markets, as the sentiment around oil remains underpinned by the increased hopes of the US-China trade resolution heading into a fresh round of US-China trade talks this week.

Meanwhile, collaborating to the upbeat tone in the barrel of WTI are the expectations of tighter oil markets led by the OPEC output cuts, which are already underway. Further, the US sanctions against petroleum exporters Iran and Venezuela also continue to offer support to the oil bulls.

The immediate focus now remains on the US weekly crude supplies data due on the cards later today at 2130 GMT as markets await the outcome of the US-Sino trade talks for the next direction on the prices.

WTI Technical Levels
Overview:
Today Last Price: 56.37
Today Daily change: -0.01 pips
Today Daily change %: -0.02%
Today Daily Open: 56.38
Trends:
Daily SMA20: 53.95
Daily SMA50: 51.31
Daily SMA100: 55.74
Daily SMA200: 62.82
Levels:
Previous Daily High: 56.75
Previous Daily Low: 56.13
Previous Weekly High: 56.22
Previous Weekly Low: 51.56
Previous Monthly High: 55.48
Previous Monthly Low: 44.52
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 56.51
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 56.37
Daily Pivot Point S1: 56.09
Daily Pivot Point S2: 55.8
Daily Pivot Point S3: 55.47
Daily Pivot Point R1: 56.71
Daily Pivot Point R2: 57.04
Daily Pivot Point R3: 57.33

WTI turns negative below $56.00, trade, supplies eyed
19 February 2019, 16:18

 

1. Prices of the WTI are grinding lower from YTD peaks.
2. Renewed trade concerns keep weighing on crude oil.
3. API, EIA reports next of relevance in the weekly docket.

The barrel of West Texas Intermediate is trading on the defensive so far today, coming down to the sub-$56.00 area after clinching fresh YTD peaks in the $56.30 area at the beginning of the week.

WTI looks to trade developments, weekly supplies
Prices of the barrel of the American benchmark for the sweet light crude oil are returning to the negative ground for the first time after five consecutive daily advances, including fresh yearly peaks in the $56.30/35 band (February 18).
Trade concerns appear to have re-emerged today following the likelihood of 25% tariffs on US imports of EU cars, as per latest news, all ahead of the start of another round of US-China trade talks in Washington due later today.
Moving forward, the API and the EIA will report on US crude oil stockpiles on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, while Baker Hughes will release its US oil-rig count on Friday (+3 prev.).

What to look for around WTI
Hopes of a US-China trade deal have lent extra oxygen to crude oil prices in past sessions and this should remain a key driver in the very near term, although the likeliness of a trade dispute between the US and the EU carries the potential to remove some headwinds from the upbeat sentiment. On the broader picture, the ongoing OPEC+ agreement to curb oil production, US sanctions against Venezuelan and Iranian oil exports and the so-called ‘Saudi Put’ should keep a firm floor under crude prices for the time being.

WTI significant levels
At the moment the barrel of WTI is down 1.12% at $55.36 and a breakdown of $53.99 (10-day SMA) would aim for $53.68 (21-day SMA) and finally $51.15 (low Feb.11). On the flip side, the next up barrier emerges at $56.31 (2019 high Feb.18) seconded by $56.86 (100-day SMA) and then $58.00 (high Nov.16 2018).

Forming top or bulls still running?

Keltner bands w EMA20 (magenta) & WMA50 (green).

WTI approaching resistance near 57.5x/5x area based on daily chart.

Where is the China trade deal that has been close for 2 months? Tired off hearing same garbage almost EVERY single day and nothing. When the news event actually happens, this coil will unwind with such pressure will be some shock and awe. For sure will be a sell the news event, cause it has been a buy the rumor for weeks day after day...

I'm feeling the burn haha; poor oil trade execution on my part.

I should have linked Oil with USD/CAD then I would have been able to nail it. My bad!

Will have to wait until next time.

I will go long under 40.

Ll1979 thank you so much for your posts!

Best to all!

A little explanation here:

If the median line crosses a blue or red line, expect some continuation with a good probability -- maybe for scalping or daytrading, sometimes for a swing trade. Look at median line crossing on Feb 10 of the red line at ~52.80. This was also a cross of the EMA20, followed by ~3+ points advance.

If the median line bounces instead of crossing a blue or red line, consider playing it in the other direction.

Always with a stop loss--nothing is ever perfect.

I will add some more comments tomorrow.

Why the median? Because the truth is in the middle.

USOUSD forms Inverted Head and shoulder pattern in a daily time frame chart. I would suggest to execute a long position with a SL -51.45 and TP – 59.90.

Hey RicardoJoel i like your thoughts on the head & shoulders pattern. The Risk reward ratio is a bit high in my humble opinion risking 585 pips for a reward of 260 pips in these uncertain markets.

US Crude Oil Inventories data at 11:00 ET (16:00 UTC)

The chart shows 2 systems. First, the Keltner Channel Gradient is one I put together. EMA20 is the centerline. The bands show distance from the CL, giving an indication of oversold/overbought conditions. I use the median line with it. Interested MQ traders are welcome to use my KeltnerChanGrad indicator linked below.

The parallel trend lines system I got from Ata (EURUSD Only), who got it from his predecessors. All reds are parallel; all blues are parallel. Reds have equal, but opposite, slope from blues.

On the H4 chart, a buy signal was given on Feb 11 when the red line was crossed. In that advance, no blue line has been crossed as yet, so no short signal has been given. There will be one someday!

A red line was crossed on Feb 20 (15:00 UTC bar) at ~56.40, a 'buy long' signal. Ll1979 accurately called resistance at ~57.5x. The advancing bar neared the second band (UB2) indicating significantly overbought. These two conditions gave a good signal to close the long after ~1 point advance.

Ll1979's resistance at ~57.5x is still holding and could be a local top. WTI is now looking weak.