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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #2,001
  • Feb 21, 2019 6:02am Feb 21, 2019 6:02am
Quoting Bydyke
Did anybody see that 40-pip drop coming? The signals I had were all up before that sudden drop.
I didn't see any bullish signals except a sideways bullish support above the EMA, which was negated (at least for me) once it was broken a couple of times.

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  • #2,002
  • Feb 21, 2019 6:08am Feb 21, 2019 6:08am
Quoting Zelias
{quote} TP just hit for 50 pips to the pip. {image} Now there is a potential H1 HD bullish divergence...
TP1 hit and 25 pips locked for the Bullish HD EMA divergence. Trailing stops and/or waiting for divergence to show up - whichever comes first...

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  • #2,003
  • Feb 21, 2019 6:18am Feb 21, 2019 6:18am
Quoting Zelias
{quote} TP1 hit and 25 pips locked for the Bullish HD EMA divergence. Trailing stops and/or waiting for divergence to show up - whichever comes first... {image}
You had a bearish RSI div 10 min ago
  • #2,004
  • Feb 21, 2019 6:22am Feb 21, 2019 6:22am
Some signals
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  • #2,005
  • Feb 21, 2019 6:26am Feb 21, 2019 6:26am
Quoting Zelias
{quote} TP1 hit and 25 pips locked for the Bullish HD EMA divergence. Trailing stops and/or waiting for divergence to show up - whichever comes first... {image}
25 pips it is.
  • #2,006
  • Feb 21, 2019 6:27am Feb 21, 2019 6:27am
Quoting hocius
{quote} You had a bearish RSI div 10 min ago
I don't trust those divergences, so I won't be taking a sell there. Will wait for a better signal.
  • #2,007
  • Feb 21, 2019 6:29am Feb 21, 2019 6:29am
Quoting Zelias
{quote} I don't trust those divergences, so I won't be taking a sell there. Will wait for a better signal.
RSI div at average swing, that's a really strong signal. Big mistake to not trust them... But it's up to you
  • #2,008
  • Feb 21, 2019 7:00am Feb 21, 2019 7:00am
Quoting hocius
{quote} RSI div at average swing, that's a really strong signal. Big mistake to not trust them... But it's up to you
You've got to backtest for yourself - I did my backtesting and it turned out these divergences (where price breaks a big pivot but you still look at the origin of the move for the divergence) don't work out profitably in most cases.
  • #2,009
  • Feb 21, 2019 7:29am Feb 21, 2019 7:29am
Gee you guys have been busy moving the market while I was away
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  • #2,010
  • Feb 21, 2019 7:57am Feb 21, 2019 7:57am
Quoting Zelias
{quote} You've got to backtest for yourself - I did my backtesting and it turned out these divergences (where price breaks a big pivot but you still look at the origin of the move for the divergence) don't work out profitably in most cases.
You cannot possibly back test because any divergence taken out of context is going to give you false results.
  • #2,011
  • Feb 21, 2019 8:04am Feb 21, 2019 8:04am
Here is a grid indicator which paints coloured areas on the main chart window, just like Alan's.
I liked that a lot and finally found a free indicator.
I have set the grid at 10 pips with grey areas for a black chart.

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Mano Rounder.mq4   11 KB | 438 downloads
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #2,012
  • Feb 21, 2019 8:37am Feb 21, 2019 8:37am
Well that is me done I am off to bed. This was my last trade.

The 1 hour also pushed back up into a HD again
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  • #2,013
  • Feb 21, 2019 8:52am Feb 21, 2019 8:52am
Better just leave you all this info
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  • #2,014
  • Feb 21, 2019 9:37am Feb 21, 2019 9:37am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} You cannot possibly back test because any divergence taken out of context is going to give you false results.
Hi Alan,

I've been backtesting 5m alongside H1, so I feel that none my trades were out of context (except when the higher timeframes like H4 and Daily were kicking in, but these are easy to go back to and check on). It's actually the only type of setup I am not a fan of in the methodology you're showing to us, so I don't trade it.

In this particular case, had we taken the trade hocius mentioned, we would've had either a BE (at best) or a loss. I will, however, refrain from mentioning this in the future so not to cause any confusion. It's a personal preference based on my own findings.

Wishing you a blessed weekend.
  • #2,015
  • Feb 21, 2019 10:32am Feb 21, 2019 10:32am
Quoting Zelias
{quote} Hi Alan, I've been backtesting 5m alongside H1, so I feel that none my trades were out of context (except when the higher timeframes like H4 and Daily were kicking in, but these are easy to go back to and check on). It's actually the only type of setup I am not a fan of in the methodology you're showing to us, so I don't trade it. In this particular case, had we taken the trade hocius mentioned, we would've had either a BE (at best) or a loss. I will, however, refrain from mentioning this in the future so not to cause any confusion. It's...
Yes, if traded well, that trade would've ended in BE because we didn't had a bullish signal when it touched the EMA, which is rare. But there are many examples in this thread where the trade of the day started or ended only with an RSI div. Still I respect your choice of course.

Have a great weekend!
  • #2,016
  • Feb 21, 2019 11:23am Feb 21, 2019 11:23am
Quoting Fxerx
{quote} Hi Do you have version for mt5 terminal?
No I don't have that but you can ask here https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/179671/page46
MLaden Rakic is the coder and he is around there. Probably he will help you out.
Trading S/R with PA only. No indicators anymore!
  • #2,017
  • Feb 21, 2019 11:35am Feb 21, 2019 11:35am
Quoting hocius
{quote} Yes, if traded well, that trade would've ended in BE because we didn't had a bullish signal when it touched the EMA, which is rare. But there are many examples in this thread where the trade of the day started or ended only with an RSI div. Still I respect your choice of course. Have a great weekend!
I think I didn't explain myself clearly, so I'll try my best with a picture (usually worth a thousand words lol).

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I trade RSI divergences all the time, like the one plotted in "magenta" colour - these are our bread and butter.

However, I don't trade the RSI divergences in "yellow", where a major pivot has been broken - this is because my tests show me that those trades are either short-lived or losers in the bigger percentage of time. Of course, some of them will go as explained by Alan but lower % than the other setups (do your due diligence and test it if you're interested, don't take my word for it).

I simply distinguish between these two types of RSI divergences depending on where price/pivots are. The OP will likely disagree with me on this, because in the method he shares we trade RSI with RSI divergences (ignoring price location in those setups). Therefore, this is my last post about it - just making sure you understand what I meant earlier.

All the best and until next week!
  • #2,018
  • Feb 21, 2019 9:12pm Feb 21, 2019 9:12pm
Well that was an altogether busy session yesterday. I left you at number 2 here below and then I see we had a further number 3 all big pips.
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  • #2,019
  • Feb 22, 2019 1:06am Feb 22, 2019 1:06am
Something has got to give soon on the hour chart. For two days we have been stuck between the C point and the 50%
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  • #2,020
  • Feb 22, 2019 1:20am Feb 22, 2019 1:20am
5min price through D and OB
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