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Empire Manufacturing Index (Old Thread 12/06/06 Closed) 13 replies

Empire Manufacturing 16 replies

Empire Manufacturing

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 16, 2006 7:07am Oct 16, 2006 7:07am
I have seen Empire Manufacturing listed at 8:30 at a couple far less interesting sites. Merlin, is this something we should have on our calander?
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #2
  • Oct 16, 2006 7:17am Oct 16, 2006 7:17am
It is already listed for 8.30 am on the FF calendar.
  • #3
  • Oct 16, 2006 7:34am Oct 16, 2006 7:34am
Quoting PipStar
It is already listed for 8.30 am on the FF calendar.
So you are right. I missed it.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #4
  • Oct 16, 2006 7:36am Oct 16, 2006 7:36am
Empire manufacturing came in well above expectations, yet the $ is getting hurt this morning. I think we are seeing profit taking reacting stronger than news?..
  • #5
  • Oct 16, 2006 7:47am Oct 16, 2006 7:47am
There is an awful lot of important data this week.
It is likely just wait and see consolodation for more important indicators.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #6
  • Edited 8:06am Oct 16, 2006 7:50am | Edited 8:06am
Let me go out on a limb again. The analisis could be that since the manufactures have a rosey outlook it means that interest rates will not increase in the near future. That being said I went short at 1.8638 GBP/USD

Update to above. Took half of at 1.8623 moved stop down to break even and out at 1.8637 15 pips + I'm happy
  • #7
  • Oct 16, 2006 7:59am Oct 16, 2006 7:59am
The JPY/USD has been the most consistent so far this a.m.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #8
  • Oct 16, 2006 8:10am Oct 16, 2006 8:10am
It may be too early to say the USD is doing the reverse of last week and that it is now ignoring good news and falling, because the components of the NY Empire are alot less USD+ive than the headline suggests:

Prices Paid fell to 30.83 from 41.00
Prices Received edged up to 17.50 from 16.00
New Orders fell back to 11.75 from 13.96 (leading indicator to future activity)
Shipments a little higher at 22.54 from 20.56
Delivery Time in -ive territory at -5.00 from 0.00
Inventories higher at 2.50 from -4.00 (more inventory means less activity required in future as stocks can be run down)
Unfilled Orders also negative at -1.51 from 2.26 (weaker order book)
Number of Employees much higher at 19.39 from 12.47 (this is the only real stand out change)
but that is offset buy the fact that:
Average Workweek fell to 14.44 from 22.59
"Always bet on black"
  • #9
  • Oct 16, 2006 8:13am Oct 16, 2006 8:13am
Quoting abobtrader
It may be too early to say the USD is doing the reverse of last week and that it is now ignoring good news and falling, because the components of the NY Empire are alot less USD+ive than the headline suggests:

Prices Paid fell to 30.83 from 41.00
Prices Received edged up to 17.50 from 16.00
New Orders fell back to 11.75 from 13.96 (leading indicator to future activity)
Shipments a little higher at 22.54 from 20.56
Delivery Time in -ive territory at -5.00 from 0.00
Inventories higher at 2.50 from -4.00 (more inventory means less activity required in future as stocks can be run down)
Unfilled Orders also negative at -1.51 from 2.26 (weaker order book)
Number of Employees much higher at 19.39 from 12.47 (this is the only real stand out change)
but that is offset buy the fact that:
Average Workweek fell to 14.44 from 22.59
Very interesting. Wonder how they painted such a rosey number out of that data.?
  • #10
  • Oct 16, 2006 8:15am Oct 16, 2006 8:15am
Quoting abobtrader
It may be too early to say the USD is doing the reverse of last week and that it is now ignoring good news and falling, because the components of the NY Empire are alot less USD+ive than the headline suggests:

Prices Paid fell to 30.83 from 41.00
Prices Received edged up to 17.50 from 16.00
New Orders fell back to 11.75 from 13.96 (leading indicator to future activity)
Shipments a little higher at 22.54 from 20.56
Delivery Time in -ive territory at -5.00 from 0.00
Inventories higher at 2.50 from -4.00 (more inventory means less activity required in future as stocks can be run down)
Unfilled Orders also negative at -1.51 from 2.26 (weaker order book)
Number of Employees much higher at 19.39 from 12.47 (this is the only real stand out change)
but that is offset buy the fact that:
Average Workweek fell to 14.44 from 22.59
Your analysis makes the Index sound completely misleading. Would be interesting to see the scoring system that generates the index #.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #11
  • Oct 16, 2006 8:18am Oct 16, 2006 8:18am
Quoting abobtrader
It may be too early to say the USD is doing the reverse of last week and that it is now ignoring good news and falling, because the components of the NY Empire are alot less USD+ive than the headline suggests:

Prices Paid fell to 30.83 from 41.00
Prices Received edged up to 17.50 from 16.00
New Orders fell back to 11.75 from 13.96 (leading indicator to future activity)
Shipments a little higher at 22.54 from 20.56
Delivery Time in -ive territory at -5.00 from 0.00
Inventories higher at 2.50 from -4.00 (more inventory means less activity required in future as stocks can be run down)
Unfilled Orders also negative at -1.51 from 2.26 (weaker order book)
Number of Employees much higher at 19.39 from 12.47 (this is the only real stand out change)
but that is offset buy the fact that:
Average Workweek fell to 14.44 from 22.59
Very good analysis. A lot of times we forget that these reports have more into them than just the maint number. Remember what happened last NFP? The number was 51K which was horrible but the revision of 60K for the previous month made a rally. This is the main reason most traders say to wait at least 15 minutes after news to get into a trade since it takes time for the traders to digest the full report not just the headline number.
  • #12
  • Oct 16, 2006 8:21am Oct 16, 2006 8:21am
Well we have got the bond markets opinion. Let's see if the stock market crowd cares to speculate before the speeches.
Level 2 orders are pretty thin so far this a.m.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #13
  • Oct 16, 2006 8:26am Oct 16, 2006 8:26am
Thanks...the thing with some of these manufacturing indicies is that the headline doesn't capture all of the inputs. I've e-mailed the New York Fed as it would be interesting to know what the inputs are and what weights they are given.
"Always bet on black"
  • #14
  • Oct 16, 2006 8:33am Oct 16, 2006 8:33am
Quoting FXopportunist
The JPY/USD has been the most consistent so far this a.m.
Check out Aud/Usd. I think it is overbought so I'm shorting it. Don't think any of the speeches this afternoon can do anymore damage to USD, but quite possibly will cause a reversal of this mornings move.
  • #15
  • Oct 16, 2006 8:41am Oct 16, 2006 8:41am
Quoting SKW322
Check out Aud/Usd. I think it is overbought so I'm shorting it. Don't think any of the speeches this afternoon can do anymore damage to USD, but quite possibly will cause a reversal of this mornings move.
SKW322

Before you short AUD chekout my post. Link is here.

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...&page=96&pp=15
These too shall pass away.
  • #16
  • Oct 16, 2006 9:17am Oct 16, 2006 9:17am
[quote=fspirani]SKW322

Before you short AUD chekout my post. Link is here.

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...&page=96&pp=15[kkkk/QUOTE] on the home page calender it says bernake to speak at noon when i hit forex calender it says 5pm? which time is correct?

  • #17
  • Oct 16, 2006 9:17am Oct 16, 2006 9:17am
Thanks for the reading fsp.

No doubt Chris Young, author of the article you've cited, is correct about overall Aud strength. But I tend to see speculation on rate hikes quickly factored in by the market, not as he suggests. The market already has a good idea that the interest rate will be raised in Nov in Australia, but the wildcard is still when/if the Fed will raise interest rates.

Until we get a clearer picture from the Fed, the Aud/Usd pair is back up into the channel it was stuck in from Sept. 12 through the 27th (very roughly .7500 - .7550). As I see it, the speeches by the Fed today will either have little effect or will bring AUD/USD back down to the bottom of the aforementioned channel.
  • #18
  • Oct 16, 2006 9:21am Oct 16, 2006 9:21am
Quoting SKW322
Thanks for the reading fsp.

No doubt Chris Young, author of the article you've cited, is correct about overall Aud strength. But I tend to see speculation on rate hikes quickly factored in by the market, not as he suggests. The market already has a good idea that the interest rate will be raised in Nov in Australia, but the wildcard is still when/if the Fed will raise interest rates.

Until we get a clearer picture from the Fed, the Aud/Usd pair is back up into the channel it was stuck in from Sept. 12 through the 27th (very roughly .7500 - .7550). As I see it, the speeches by the Fed today will either have little effect or will bring AUD/USD back down to the bottom of the aforementioned channel.
Good conclusion. You may be right. Thanks
These too shall pass away.
  • #19
  • Oct 16, 2006 9:22am Oct 16, 2006 9:22am
[quote=59fender]
Quoting fspirani
SKW322

Before you short AUD chekout my post. Link is here.



http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...&page=96&pp=15[kkkk/QUOTE] on the home page calender it says bernake to speak at noon when i hit forex calender it says 5pm? which time is correct?

12.00 Noon for sure. May be 5.00 PM is GMT
These too shall pass away.
  • #20
  • Oct 16, 2006 9:27am Oct 16, 2006 9:27am
Can not sustain upside move. More bias to downside.
These too shall pass away.
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