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Journey to consistency

  • #1,941
  • Feb 20, 2019 1:52am Feb 20, 2019 1:52am
I did attempt two long one was wrong! the other now looking I had a good reason all in all for now -0.9pips. Now I see a reversal but again I must see the effect before risking anything down the line!

I also see why you have to be very smart with your position sizing !!! because no matter how good you think you are following price and reading the form you never know!!!

332 is the new reference but again I must see the effect!! otherwise this could turn into bullish at any moment.
326 another bullish reference.
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  • #1,942
  • Edited 2:38am Feb 20, 2019 2:21am | Edited 2:38am
I'm thinking if my entry was correct !! above 367 I think it was!!

I think anything above 351 was correct that's when the retracement wave finished and bulls confirmed !I need some more time getting used to identifying these fractals properly.

I only attempted long entries although some were losers overall +13pips for now.

Looks like it was right ! only I did exit too early... at 395 exit are a whole new problem to be dealt with for now I'll focus on reading the form correctly !! and that includes trading with the flow - identifying the waves up or down and entering at the exact moment before it takes off!
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  • #1,943
  • Edited 3:19am Feb 20, 2019 2:57am | Edited 3:19am
391 they tried for another leg up 367 I see something familiar, waiting.... perhaps 350 or 337 ? I don't know.

In the meantime I'm just meditating reflecting back on past price behavior, my long attempts during Frankfurt I did get in on a retrace wave!!! I mean right before the retrace wave.

It's all about the peak and trough, S&R and fractals v opposite fractals above or below a prominent level. For up and down moves technically it is clean almost always if its not I'm probably or most likely in the wrong !

DAX is perfect - of course its me who don't see it !

OK interesting 392 OR 367 ...... the trend is up .

Let's finish this 5min candle above 392 this might go down if I don't let this candle close first.

366 next reference and I'm ready.
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  • #1,944
  • Edited 4:00am Feb 20, 2019 3:46am | Edited 4:00am
366 instead of falling right ahead why another fractal but I sold it anyways and paid for my error!!!! (+3.6) and now I understand why its hesitating around 350 area! it could have bounced right back up from 350.

for now its a retrace wave down ! that's why and my niche is trading the trend not the retracement waves, I need a focus.

But I must say I'm enjoying "reading the form" and trying to follow along - there's great satisfaction I believe when you finally reach a place where you just understand by reading price, form what's happening - just as in when you become fluent in a foreign language and actually understand what's being said. I'm not sure if I'm at a stage where I can reply back coherently just yet.

But I "really" am beginning to understand - I don't care if have lose a bit more I have stopped entering trades senselessly - my gambling habit seemed to have dissipated and I knew all along it was to do with lack of knowledge and lack of experience.

Looks like 350 might break retrace waves might continue next 337.

or 326. I actually traded the retrace wave - back to +11

Sometime in the future I might have to learn to play the retracement waves - and I got to practice that down retrace waves, I might get to practice up retrace waves some other day.

Now we're the bulls at ?!
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  • #1,945
  • Edited 4:19am Feb 20, 2019 4:09am | Edited 4:19am
Quote
Now we're the bulls at ?

somethings up below 351 R1 367, R2 392

that up wave doesn't look right if bears are coming in for their attack in theory 392 had been tested had a PB but 368 hasn't...

but there hasn't been a LL just yet
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  • #1,946
  • Feb 20, 2019 4:31am Feb 20, 2019 4:31am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} that up wave doesn't look right if bears are coming in for their attack
I exited a little too early again +15more

But hey I'm happy that I am actually seeing!!!!

overall +23pips I'm done for the day.

I think I deserve an early close today.
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  • #1,947
  • Edited 12:53am Feb 21, 2019 12:31am | Edited 12:53am
Bulls fought hard at 325 below 341 !! I saw and felt them trying to go for another leg up at 367 and 350 trend resumed safe and sound HH and more importantly the higher low was protected at 325 and as I see at this juncture 5m view for now from the close the bulls are still very much dominating I don't see any viable reason to start shorting from below possible areas of interest 395, 381, 376.
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  • #1,948
  • Edited 1:53am Feb 21, 2019 1:03am | Edited 1:53am
Quote
I don't see any viable reason to start shorting

I might have to take that back 1h may indeed ....

I'll just shut up and wait

If you're really going up 420 doesn't look like it - unless you're going to show me something else. <this is probably an extension of 400 move up>

I'm waiting for a new development don't want to get in halfway.

why do I feel so darn tired today maybe its all the staring ... *at a chart* day and night.
And here it goes "Night and Day"

<<<sums up my life pretty much and my relationship with charts>>>
<<< I guess I have a reason to be tried I'm being tormented !! and I won't be OKAY until I ...

Like the beat beat beat of the tom-tom
When the jungle shadows fall
Like the tick tick tock of the stately clock
As it stands against the wall
Like the drip drip drip of the raindrops
When the summer shower is through
So a voice within me keeps repeating you, you, you
Night and day, you are the one
Only you beneath the moon or under the sun
Whether near to me, or far It's no matter darling where you are
I think of you Day and night, night and day,
why is it so That this longing for you follows wherever i go
In the roaring traffic's boom
In the silence of my lonely room
I think of you Day and night, night and day
Under the hide of me
There's an oh such a hungry yearning burning inside of me
And this torment won't be through
Until you let me spend my life making love to you Day and night, night and day

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  • #1,949
  • Edited 2:35am Feb 21, 2019 2:11am | Edited 2:35am
421 and 428 is an S I'm keeping an eye on 450 is an R I'm keeping the other eye on for now.

Not a single position taken - because my rules told me so. Hey! I'm not gambling opening trades senselessly. Thats something to pat myself on the back for.

bulls aren't giving up
but this behavior I don't like it !!! what if its a bait.

selling it again at this juncture below 435 I'm not so comfortable.
we'll see

I'm going to wait for a clearer sign !

450R, 435S both failed I need to wait for a new reference point !
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  • #1,950
  • Edited 2:52am Feb 21, 2019 2:38am | Edited 2:52am
435 might break so this is a viable sell but how viable I'm not so sure just because of the struggle it had both running up and down and hesitation in general I felt that and I saw the signs I see a new possible reference at 440.7

I couldn't help myself paid for my mistake -13.5pips.

I'm done. Back to waiting on "clarity"
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  • #1,951
  • Feb 21, 2019 3:28am Feb 21, 2019 3:28am
RULES TO REINFORCE

 

  1. buy above peak, sell it below trough
  2. wait for a confirmation "fractal"
  3. if it fails move onto a new point of reference
  4. if it looks odd or if you see a new point of reference emerging do not get in you'll lose that's the "OBVIOUS"

I trade reaction after the action...
I trade the impulse waves not the retracement..

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  • #1,952
  • Feb 21, 2019 3:50am Feb 21, 2019 3:50am
I see price being sandwiched up above I see a trough 440.9 but below there's a peak 431.1 - I know full well that its not a good idea to sell it above a peak although there's a trough up ahead plus there's double fractal below the trough so lots of support will be below even if 431 fails. So it is better to wait for a new point of reference and wait for a clarity.

However from below above 431 I see something BUT it doesn't look like a fractal .... so I'm going to wait for a new point of reference since both sides failed.

I paid for not sticking to my rules ! - 23pips. But I'll go easy on myself this time because I'm still refining certain parts to my approach... but day by day my confidence in my approach is growing and by paying for my errors I keep being reminded that I am actually following price behavior and my reasoning is not completely off the wall.

:: New point of reference emerged above 431 as it broke but price is bouncing back off... thank you reminding that I should stick to my rules.
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  • #1,953
  • Feb 22, 2019 3:39am Feb 22, 2019 3:39am
Action reaction
Support and resistance
Peak and trough
Fractals


I keep learning new ways to look at price behavior every single day without fail of course all within the context of my mental roadmap. It's all a process and it is personal - "very" personal.

Losses are inevitable and its okay to take a loss as long as I did act on the "reaction" based off of a "fact" not an "opinion" and as long as I "trust" my method - trust of course will be built gradually after seeing it work trade after trade and after failing on my end not to see the actual "fact" or small overlayers that I was missing and among all internalization of everything I've acquired. Overall my mental roadmap is complete - I need of course some more polishing to do and again overall I feel good.

Btw I'm looking at a 454 area.
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  • #1,954
  • Feb 25, 2019 1:40am Feb 25, 2019 1:40am
Retrace down not a wave so not tradeable just yet who knows what might happen above 521 ! but I tried because I'm still trying to understand price behavior hip and lop , peak and trough, support and resistance they are coming together nicely although I'm still losing "moderate" again not complaining its a price 1 must pay

I see an up fractal S turned into R in the process of breaking up my area of interest is 521.

I'm only beginning to differentiate between impulse wave( up or down) from retracement wave (up or down)
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  • #1,955
  • Edited 2:44am Feb 25, 2019 2:22am | Edited 2:44am
-3.5 sold it at the break of 514, now waiting to see if there's going to be a PB OR something else...

521 didn't work out. I didn't enter.

I probably should have let that short run a bit further than +6.4 BUT what matters for now is that I "see" the "signs"

that down move was retracement wave I'm not sure if there's going to be a PB back to 514 however the trend is "up"

506.6 ???
if you say so I'll flow along

PB in progress... don't see anything for now except for PB
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  • #1,956
  • Feb 26, 2019 12:30am Feb 26, 2019 12:30am
So I realized I was paying too much attention to the "micro" and not enough to the "macro".

Dissecting 1h movement, not much of a dissect because well its been a steep up move about 45degree
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  • #1,957
  • Edited 12:58am Feb 26, 2019 12:43am | Edited 12:58am
Officially DAX is still very much in an uptrend. However on 1h I see some trouble boiling (I say trouble boiling because I don't know nothing! it could be natural to price behavior) which is the reason why I have those purple lines!! cause and effect areas of resistance AND 45degree steep up channel has broken.

So even if it were to fall with LH and LL this is still very much a correction as far as 1h up channel is concerned and "exists".

As I see it potential area of resistance are 513, 501, 493 and potential area of support 471(still a HL) , 440 not a LL but not a HL.

Somehow 501 feels more prominent if sellers are serious I feel like this the point in which they should aim for 471 or even 440 ?
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  • #1,958
  • Edited 1:17am Feb 26, 2019 1:04am | Edited 1:17am
Straight to 440 interesting, but this is not a new low if this fails then that's going to be a new low there's a LH from above.

I see rejection at 440, next support 415 LH LL might be completing on 5min.

NOT yet.
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  • #1,959
  • Feb 26, 2019 1:25am Feb 26, 2019 1:25am
This looks like a LL, I have a LH from above so I'm not buying this maybe going for a retest (5min)

I have drawn additional supports below (levels are from 1h)
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  • #1,960
  • Edited 1:45am Feb 26, 2019 1:33am | Edited 1:45am
428 trough is a LL I have LH from 539 yesterday and the steep upward channel on 1h has broken yes this still an uptrend on 1h but this steep rise up channel might correct secondary move might be in progress I have another less steep upward channel on 1h.

Now there're two possible scenarios to take into account at this point (I think) first this is probably going for 471 at this point but on 1h 440 hasn't been broken just yet the last HL things are going sour for bulls on 5min if I get a higher trough on 440 I think its a go for long possibly to 505 this is another critical level waiting for an effect.

So although there's been a LL on 5min its not going to be an easy straightforward sell especially if 440 holds. And I have to follow the peak and trough and 1h!
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