dolla dolla bills ya'll

ok re did it, getting a handle now


curve, risk, inflation, oil, hedgers, rotations

113.8 hours later

We'll see how this structure of pre market analysis works out. probably make some edits in the coming days / weeks

months later......

can't trade in the mornings atm so I'll see how the pending order game goes. ideally I'd like to watch these HTF zones on m1/m5 charts. which would take me waaay back to what i was doing maybe a year or more ago.




almost got filled on the buy stop first after it went down to touch and no fill my limit. I would have probably closed it because it was still like 4 hours before frankfurt which is too early. also wouldn't have liked that it was going up overnight. that would make me more inclined to flip to a scalp short. fortunately it dropped back down so now we'll see how it plays out

another little one just for kicks. janpec style. it probably had more to give but its bed time

Dang thanks FOMC. Probably just gonna go down for a big liquidity grab, take my .01 lot and then head back north.

Got a little piece out of it. Just playing the typical Asian session rotation. The fact that it went all the way down to the bottom edge isn’t surprising but for a quick set n forgot on my phone at work I’d rather play it safe. The pending was set to catch price as it dropped back below the prior swing high

stepped into this one pretty aggressively. I like the PA and the value but I misinterpreted a Bloomberg headline about trade talks with China and got in too soon with too much.

now that the days over Id expect it to go down if it will continue up, so i'll watch it for a possible exit.it still looks like a great short tho on the HTF

been a long slow journey down. holding my last position to see if it will go for another measure

I really wish i had a vps to use this, but I cant justify the cost right now

looking back if I'd have known what it would take to learn to trade I dont think I could have justified that cost either. its like climbing mt everest maybe. if you made it to the top but you had friends die along the way could you rejoice about your accomplishment?

so much frustration over the years I think something inside me might have died somewhere along the way

Dang swap is kinda hefty. Was hoping tp would get hit before the close.

been listening to lots of trader podcasts lately. something that I'd like to implement is a playbook, a compilation of trades that really make sense to me. I did this a long time ago but it should be updated I think.

potential trade for the playbook:

yields are raging, price has built value kind of above the previous range somewhat. my limit entry was set to catch price if it made it down to the xx.50 price area which correlated with prior swing highs (not super visible on daily)



potential trade for playbook:
yields are again a major factor. I thought price might press onward to make a new high but I couldnt enter in the middle of the new range and put my stop where everyone else's would be. instead I put my limit entry there.


If I had to extract a few key factors from these trades to include in a trading plan it would be something like:

1.Yields suggesting direction
2. PA confirming that direction
3. Enter where a stop hunt will likely be

Both these trades were kinda set and forget as I dont have time to trade lower TFs right now so D is mostly what I look at. With that in mind I have to take cautious entries and find zones that will likely still cause a bounce regardless of PA over the next 24-48 hours.

The aspects I’m missing out on with these higher time frames is volume analysis, time of day, and clear PA patterns at important levels. I don’t think there’s too much value in looking at the volume of a daily candle - on average of how many times it will give false or pointless info.

However this way I’m always focused on the most important PA and value. So hopefully that will override the stuff I’m missing out on.

Also it may cause me to really focus on each candle and the story it tells as opposed to a pattern overall. So that could be a bonus

I've let 9% of floating profits go this week because I was trading 0.01 lots and couldnt do partial closes where I would have put a first tp. Id like to stick to htf charts but that has absolutely gotta change. I have no doubt I'd still be quite profitable like that but i just think its not an optimal way to trade, nor do I like it

also currently watching a 10% draw down on a stupid gamble trade on my phone. so, still trading like an adrenaline addict sometimes.

core things I look for in a trade...

1. zone
2. value
3. nearest liquidity

I think if I can tick off 2 out of 3 of those boxes before each trade I'd be in a pretty solid position


specific PA aspects....

1. L2 players
2. fast money
2. projections

rules...

1. SL on every trade
2. no phone entries


at this point its more about finding my routine, trusting my method, and just letting the system run. i need to get more consistent with my chart time though to do that. i decided to take my full loss somewhat as a punishment to try to teach myself a lesson cuz its kinda incredible, even for me. i didnt realize at the time of making the absolutely most retarded trade ever that it was actually at the end of my projection almost to the pip. my short was a small lot size and the buy was 5 times that. just amazingly unacceptable.

took a handful of losses trying to buy jpy recently. this one is particularly upsetting due to the fact it lost just because I put my stop so far away, which pushed out my TP

but i also had a handful of winners on other pairs




the thing I dont like about all these pullback trades is they are so subjective. sometimes I enter on the near side of a zone, sometimes the middle, sometimes I go for a stop hunt entry. and I never know how the market is going to look by the time it actually fills me as I check charts once a day. it seems if I stick to my plan of following value and leaning against a level I should be ok taking 2RRR trades but its just like... theres gotta be a better way.

I was looking for a short eg trade yesterday to play the forecast but got ran over by headlines. that is a huge dilemma when im trying to trade these short term opportunities but only check charts once a day. that short term edge can disappear easily without me knowing.

anyway, id be happy to get some short UC up above 1.13. yields look good, oil is weak but not declining and in the broader view looks ok. I certainly dont think it looks good enough to short CAD so with yields the way they are and recent PMIs its good enough for long CAD

very nice structure. I like the green box for a buy unless things look really bad when/if we get there