Harmonic Elliott Wave (HEW)

May be this will be the 5the wave before abc correction,1.1330-1.1350 to 1.1225-1.1210

I feel a need to update my update from yesterday evening....I was wrong yesterday with my blue wave-ii....I think

It looks this wave-ii is an Expanded flat towards 1.1376-78.

That would also fullfill my initial expectation that we needed to get a little higher for meeting the sma89 and 200 in the H1 eventually also the H4 (market motion would then be complete for a new start)...

let 's see how this works-out....

The current moves made another target....but I currently not see where we are in count... if true then it looks a little to strong for the efc I was looking for..... still searching...

Well....I still think I'm correct with the Expanded Flat... and also with the last leg of this flat (5-wave move)

Okay... we had a deep pink wave b/iii but that hold my target for wave-iii intact. With a deeper wave-b/iii there is a change the wave-iv could be less deep as normal... and with that also wave-v. We have to correct that if it happens. Anyway I think this move 1,1379-90 even 1,1406 could be the end of this Expanded flat I think. The decision maker here is the wave-iii. If it is around 1,1360 instead of 1,1341 then wave-iv and wave-v must both around 20pips higher. See both excel screenshots. I think both are possible and the decision point is the end of wave-iii

If we reach the high in this up-move we can prepare for a down move in the blue wave-iii....in the towards 1,0771-0692

Can you believe it.....indeed we are seeing an Expandet flat now....but last Thursday I only identificated the blue wave-i a little to high!

Think we now saw the wave-i @1,1249 and are now into the Expanded flat.
we can go from the start directly higher towards the 1,1227-35
or we first must go meet the PP @1,1277 then we could see only the 1,1214-22
So the coming low is depended for the end of the wave-ii

whatever high we get now I think it's a short one (between 1,1214-35)..... this coming high is in mine opinion the last high for the coming time! From now on we must see the EURUSD sinking...

mhhh I have a Pat-statement here and so I'm a little confused....form one-side my forecast for the last session worked pretty nice. Following that view we had our wave-ii @1,1334
From the other hand if we look to the 4H-chart with the sma-200-89 it looks if the market want to snap at least one of them. That means we still have a bullish view for tomorrow towards the 1,1368-95 for getting the market again in balancing. That's ofcourse not a must....more a sort of guideline I normaly use.

So I'm very unsure about the next move....
Well I was looking for such a possible count but they all do not look valid to me...but yes it's possible...

So for tomorrow I have to views:
1) if market goes above 1,1334 I expect the market can go towards the 1,1367-95
2) if the market goes below 1,1295 my view for last session is correct an then we had our wave-ii @1,1334 and so we can anticipate a stronger down-move.

let's wait and let the market show his real face....

gosh....retracements ...somehow I can't control them really, often I'm just to late in those ...with the correct view and moves.
The good news is that I already was prepared about an eventual move towards the sma89 and/ore sma200 in 4H-chart! see last screenshot

It looks that is the way to go....Possibly @1,1397-1412 is the High we can see in this Expanded Flat. And again....if this is reached I again prepare for a real move down... at 14Febr I wrote "If we reach the high in this up-move we can prepare for a down move in the blue wave-iii....towards the 1,0771-0692" and yes...this view is still holding for me!

but oke...first we need that high...in the blue wave-ii. Then I expect that abc as wave-iii.

My last view and post where actually oke....direction as well the possible targets. The only thing that was happen is that the last wave-v in this Expanded Flat was a short one...
Indeed I think we saw the Expanded Falt ending @1,1371 (blue wave-ii) and that means we just started the wave-a/iii downwards.

Be aware....this new down-move must be a (blue) wave-c/iii so I expect "just" 5-waves. and we now are in the wave-a/i. In my opinion it must be a longlong wave, somewhere towards the 1.0736-670 as it looks now.....

If I try to measure the current moves I think we can see the wave-a/i ending around 1,1221-08

Actually it was very shoppy session last friday. But at the end nothing really happened. My forecast for friday was and is in a way still valid.

We saw a deep wave b/iii. That could put our purple wave c/iii a little higher and with that it is possible that also the wave-v can be higher. I would suggest for 1.1237-1.1227 and if the wave-iv is very short I opt for the 1.1227. If we see here the low I think we need to recover for a 70-80 pips....

Because there was no change at my last chart I add the 5-min chart (instead the normal 1H-chart) I have with the lower degree-counts in it.

What was looking good the last days...looks now not that right anymore.... The pressure from the bulls are still strong and are enough to hold at least the lower support. But as the time goes on...and the new prices are still overing in that range... we only can producing complex corrections.... and so that is suggesting to me that we still must look for a short-term up-move.

I reconsider my down count from 1.1514 to 1.1234. That whole move could be a 5-wave move. so the low at 1.1234 is then a wave-i. that is suggesting for an abc in the wave-ii. If that is true then we now just saw a wave-a and b and so we still have to look for a wave-c to reach the blue wave-ii.

So for tomorrow I expect a bullish-day. I expect the wave-ii around around 1.1438-45. If seen then I would suggest to look for strong bearish signals

It was a good thing to change my count yesterday ....unfortunately I believe I wasn't right with the abc as a blue wave-ii. It looks atm much more like a double! anyway my view of yesterday was guiding me towards the 1.1430-40.

Below I put a bigger overview because I think we can met that red resistance line. If we face a double now I think we can meet that resistance. The question then is do we face here a double or a tripple? So we still a little unsure about the final direction in this wave-ii?

It looks I'm close to it... indeed we see here a double until now... I think we still need one push upwards towards the 1.1422-30. the we need to wait what it wants to do....was this retracement just a double....or do we need here a triple?! So based on this count we then can just wait.... or can we even expect one push higher ones-more for a few pips...

If I look to the USDX it looks we currently saw an abc incl. a wave-x....and now we stil see a down-move. Then this must be a wave-a. So the USDX is now producing a not finished double.... That in combination with the current EURUSD count....it looks if we must see a triple in the EURUSD!

So I'm in waiting stand...and if I see a confirmation of the start of a triple I try to get in.
In first I think we still can get a little lower to reach the the 1.1354-49 before we can see the start of that last abc. For now I don't have a real profit target ....I must first have seen the foundation waves (wave-i and ii) anyway I still think 1.1430-40 can be in reach...

I made an error in the USDX-chart (below the new USDX-count)... actually also here it looks if we saw a double... and also here we have to wait what it will be.... a new zigzag for a triple or heading upwards. This count looks it isn't finished jet...so indeed I think we must see one more push upwards in the EURUSD.

Nice run....that worked!

Well for me it now looks if we finished a double zigzag...and now what next....for me it looks if we need an extra zigzag to form a triple!
I would suggest we need a new wave-a around 1.1478 then a wave-b to +/- 1.1435 (50% retracement) and a final push towards the 1.1520.....

mhhh it didn't went who I thought... but I still think we didn't saw the high here....

Currently I believe this down-move is a wave-x...must hold above the 1.1316 (it looks it's gone a be a deep wave-x... around 1.1319 the estimates telling)
After this I expect still an abc upwards to complete a triple...

I had some incredible perfect Carnaval here in town....! Back to reality again

well my last update wasn't the way the EURUSD or say USDX went. Anyway actually I'm very happy with this downward moves...because now the wave a/iii is really starter. that means we are leaving 1300 ranging area....

We are now in the blue wave a/iii towards I think 1.1154-32
then we still need a retracement towards 1.1287 before we can meet the blue wave-iii around 1.0827-0753

What today happened....gives a nice view of how the EUR-zone is going....in my opinion not good! also the main HEW-count gives since long a strong bearish view

Did you looked at my last view for the wave iii (1.1232) and iv (1.1248)....... today we saw the wave iii at 1.1230 and the wave iv at 1.1243. Cool, or?! I wished I could do that everyday..... But Oke... well I keep dreaming

the foreseen down-move is going now and I think we probably can see the dark-blue wave a/iii around 1.1160-43.
If price is from now retracing towards the Daily-PP (around 1.1227) I see now a 1.1160 in the cards.... for the dark-blue wave a/iii
If price is retraced to 1.1206 I think more about the 1.1143 for that wave...


If reached we have our dark-blue wave a/iii and so we need a retracement. Initial I always go for a 50% retracement (around 1.1280-90). But for better analyse we must follow the abc move.

this was a very short wave-v(!)..... unfortunately I did expected one more push downwards.... that also rise the question if the lower degree wave (dark blue) was correct....?!

I hesitate a little now.... from one view we now could saw the light blue wave-a/iii @ 1.1176 that means we could anticipate a retracement towards 1.1281-1319 for a lightblue wave b/iii.... In the higher degree waves this gives some line-up problems...... so it looks this isn't the real/correct count.

In another view (see the count below) the light blue wave a/iii is around 1.1083.... that would lines up much better with the higher degree count for reaching the light blue wave iii around 1.0827-0753. I prefer this view more atm!

Well in any case we now must see a wave-b (retracement) here. For now I believe we must first see the 1.1300-20 area ones again before the down continuation can start again.

I think I am in the right direction with my last forecast...after today I still think we need to see a retracement towards the 1.1304 even 1319 could be possible. I prefer the higher one.

If I follow the development now I believe we see a double in this retracement. First I think we can see a move towards the 1.1297. If we did not meet the sma98 in the 4H-chart then I think we first need a move lower towards the 1.1257-22 before we can see a new abc towards the 1.1304-19.

If seen we can continue the downmove following levels I had yesterday to guide us

Nothing to say much for today....The view from yesterday is still valid....
I still prefer the higher retracement around 1.1319

below the last count I have

It looks for me the 1.1339 was our high here.... it was close...4 pips higher and my count was broken...

for now I assume we are in the down-move again and must look for the wave c/iii (I expect it around the 1.0827-0753)
for now we must first find the wave a/i....as it looks now we could find it around 1.1234