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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #1,781
  • Feb 13, 2019 4:16am Feb 13, 2019 4:16am
Quoting russian30
Nice bullish divergence on the 5 min coupled with a possible ema bounce on the 1 hour
I hope we get support
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM5.png Size: 25 KB
life is a reflection of what we allow ourselves to see
  • #1,782
  • Feb 13, 2019 4:21am Feb 13, 2019 4:21am
Quoting davidmaree
Bearish signals mentioned earlier for 1H and 5m played out just fine. First HD stopped out rapidly but subsequent was good. Alan, in these cases will you generally re-enter on the pullback to the entry? Would've worked fine this time but my fear here is if price oscillates around the entry level you could get done in several times. Hedge should've been stopped out but since a bullish HD was forming near hedge BE it was left on. {image}
Are those your trades? what compelled you to take that second short?

edit, sorry maybe thats what your asking...
life is a reflection of what we allow ourselves to see
  • #1,783
  • Feb 13, 2019 4:33am Feb 13, 2019 4:33am
Quoting mikeeating
{quote} Are those your trades? what compelled you to take that second short? edit, sorry maybe thats what your asking...
Mike, that second entry was a HD at the time the price took out the pivot high. The question to Alan was about a pullback that occurs in the same candle as the entry.
  • #1,784
  • Feb 13, 2019 4:39am Feb 13, 2019 4:39am
Quoting davidmaree
{quote} Mike, that second entry was a HD at the time the price took out the pivot high. The question to Alan was about a pullback that occurs in the same candle as the entry.
Nice work, I can never see those
life is a reflection of what we allow ourselves to see
  • #1,785
  • Feb 13, 2019 4:49am Feb 13, 2019 4:49am
Quoting mikeeating
{quote} Nice work, I can never see those
IMO HD's (with HTF context) are high probability with very little DD. Personally have enough faith in them to go all in, as you'll see in today's chart. I will still use three entries for other div's and bull/bear support.
  • #1,786
  • Feb 13, 2019 5:42am Feb 13, 2019 5:42am
Quoting davidmaree
{quote} IMO HD's (with HTF context) are high probability with very little DD. Personally have enough faith in them to go all in, as you'll see in today's chart. I will still use three entries for other div's and bull/bear support.
Hi David,

Would you be so kind as to mark the HD on your trade image please. Just so i can see where/what it is. Many thanks.
  • #1,787
  • Feb 13, 2019 5:44am Feb 13, 2019 5:44am
Quoting forex_dimi
And also getting HD in cable. My problem is that I don't trust signals that time.
I clearly see the signals but enter always late!!!!
A clear entry point could help ...
If you don't build your DREAM, Someone will hire to help build theirs ...
  • #1,788
  • Feb 13, 2019 6:03am Feb 13, 2019 6:03am
Quoting russian30
{quote} Hi David, Would you be so kind as to mark the HD on your trade image please. Just so i can see where/what it is. Many thanks.
For hidden divergence see Alan's description in post 961 (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post11865778) and this is marked by the circles showing the first and second entries on my posted chart.
  • #1,789
  • Feb 13, 2019 6:10am Feb 13, 2019 6:10am
Quoting drsa1970
{quote} I clearly see the signals but enter always late!!!! A clear entry point could help ...
HD entries I do by monitoring the RSI of the current bar (shown in indicator window) and placing the mouse cursor on the bar of interest. When price is close to the pivot high/low I can then quickly enter if there is divergence between price and RSI in real time.
  • #1,790
  • Feb 13, 2019 8:15am Feb 13, 2019 8:15am
Hey guys,

So one of the issues I often run into is picking the “wrong” divergence. I am sure many of you know the feeling of following the signals and take on positions either short or long as the divergence is signinaling, only to see that price continues to push in the same direction. To me, it looks like the ones who have gotten a better grasp of this strategy have been able to work out ways to deal with this.

Attached is a picture showing regular divergences (orange) and rsi divergences (red). As you can see, from the time the first divergence signal presented itself price kept on running north/south for a good distance.

I guess my question is, what tools and/or techniques do you apply to make sure that you enter closer to the tops/bottoms?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Divwrong.jpg Size: 191 KB
  • #1,791
  • Feb 13, 2019 8:24am Feb 13, 2019 8:24am
Quoting davidmaree
{quote} For hidden divergence see Alan's description in post 961 (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post11865778) and this is marked by the circles showing the first and second entries on my posted chart.
Thanks David.
  • #1,792
  • Feb 13, 2019 9:50am Feb 13, 2019 9:50am
Quoting simon.says
Hey guys, So one of the issues I often run into is picking the “wrong” divergence. I am sure many of you know the feeling of following the signals and take on positions either short or long as the divergence is signinaling, only to see that price continues to push in the same direction. To me, it looks like the ones who have gotten a better grasp of this strategy have been able to work out ways to deal with this. Attached is a picture showing regular divergences (orange) and rsi divergences (red). As you can see, from the time the first divergence...
2-bar test (see earlier posts by the OP to get the hang of it).
  • #1,793
  • Feb 13, 2019 3:52pm Feb 13, 2019 3:52pm
Quoting simon.says
Hey guys, So one of the issues I often run into is picking the “wrong” divergence. I am sure many of you know the feeling of following the signals and take on positions either short or long as the divergence is signinaling, only to see that price continues to push in the same direction. To me, it looks like the ones who have gotten a better grasp of this strategy have been able to work out ways to deal with this. Attached is a picture showing regular divergences (orange) and rsi divergences (red). As you can see, from the time the first divergence...

This is a good question Simon and absolutely 2-bar tests are good for entries. However, an important lesson for me was to accept losses as well. Alan's method is especially forgiving of these because of the insane reward for getting it right. Throw in the additional pips that hedges give and you can pay for several stop outs very quickly.

Other useful spots for entries in this type of PA is previous high/low swings of the average and also ABCD 50% levels or D points (see Alan's post https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post11991329 about this)
  • #1,794
  • Feb 13, 2019 4:18pm Feb 13, 2019 4:18pm
That 80 pip spike yesterday was as bullish as you can get these days yet the 4H 50% ABCD level ("wrong direction") was in contention and held.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4habcd 14 feb.jpg Size: 73 KB


At the same time the 1H was at a swing high and the bar ended in divergence giving a clue as to what the bias should be on the 5m for entries.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h14feb.jpg Size: 87 KB
  • #1,795
  • Feb 13, 2019 8:57pm Feb 13, 2019 8:57pm
Quoting russian30
Morning all, Both the 50% levels from the continuation divergence ABCD pattern were hit yesterday, Should we now remove these levels from the chart/analysis? As it looks like there is no continuation divergence on the hourly today, does that mean we are using 29360 (yesterday swing high) and 29390 (ABCD 100% level) as our target to the up side? thanks.
Hitting both side like that is an indication price is just ranging
  • #1,796
  • Feb 13, 2019 8:58pm Feb 13, 2019 8:58pm
Quoting drsa1970
There are few high impact news for GBP at 09:30 AM (GMT) {image}
I would never look at news it is a distraction from the signals
  • #1,797
  • Feb 13, 2019 9:01pm Feb 13, 2019 9:01pm
Quoting forex_dimi
And also getting HD in cable. My problem is that I don't trust signals that time.
If you cannot trust your signals then you are wasting your time trading because guess work won't cut it. The trick is the initial entry is small with an equally small risk to test the waters.
  • #1,798
  • Feb 13, 2019 9:13pm Feb 13, 2019 9:13pm
Quoting mikeeating
{quote} I hope we get support {image}
The trade looks OK but I worry about not moving that stop before you make the post.
  • #1,799
  • Feb 13, 2019 9:23pm Feb 13, 2019 9:23pm
Quoting drsa1970
{quote} I clearly see the signals but enter always late!!!! A clear entry point could help ...
I don't understand this. The signal is the entry.
  • #1,800
  • Feb 13, 2019 9:25pm Feb 13, 2019 9:25pm
Quoting davidmaree
{quote} HD entries I do by monitoring the RSI of the current bar (shown in indicator window) and placing the mouse cursor on the bar of interest. When price is close to the pivot high/low I can then quickly enter if there is divergence between price and RSI in real time.
Correct and if the price continues to run on and out of divergence then we will be stopped out for a small loss. Not a problem.
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