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Trading Institutional Order Flow

  • #7,141
  • Feb 13, 2019 4:07am Feb 13, 2019 4:07am
A little gutted I missed a chance to place a trade on NZDJPY.....

I set an alert on the Daily to tell me when price was approaching the D1 SZ, so that I could check the approach to the 4h fresh and original zone. The alert, D1 and 4h zone were hit at 1:00 am my time when I was asleep. It is a great zone with a really great approach to it, nothing on the 4h to stop price dropping.

All I can do is see what price does and see whether my analysis flagged a high probability trade that I unfortunately missed.

See charts below:

D1:
Price broke momentum TL creating a nice SZ to short at, there is a lot of compression on this chart for price to keep on dropping.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 109 KB


4h:
There is/was a great fresh and original SZ at the distal of the D1 SZ to set a trade at.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The only reason I didnt set the trade was because I want to see how price approached the 4h SZ and assess what profit margin there would be.

Does anyone have any advice on 'set and forget' zones like this....do you disregard profit margin on th 4h with a great fresh and original zone like this or still asses how price approaches the zone and this decide whether to place a trade or wait for confirmation?
  • #7,142
  • Feb 13, 2019 5:18am Feb 13, 2019 5:18am
With respect to the NZDJPY Daily Chart, I noticed that there are zones above where the initial reversal has taken place. My challenge with this is usually deciding which level to go for. If there are levels on top of levels my inclination is to ignore the zones in between and go for the extreme zones. What are your thoughts on this?
  • #7,143
  • Feb 13, 2019 5:29am Feb 13, 2019 5:29am
GBPSEK 1:8 short trade, just closed
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To break the rules you must first master them.
  • #7,144
  • Edited 6:24am Feb 13, 2019 6:10am | Edited 6:24am
Hello everyone,analysis on
CADJPY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY DAILY 13TH FEB.png Size: 26 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY H4 13TH FEB.png Size: 25 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY H1 13TH FEB.png Size: 20 KB


AUDUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD DAILY 13TH FEB.png Size: 31 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD H4 13TH FEB.png Size: 31 KB


comments &advice are welcome,thanks.
  • #7,145
  • Feb 13, 2019 6:54am Feb 13, 2019 6:54am
Quoting Diddyy
Hello everyone,analysis on CADJPY{image}{image}{image} AUDUSD{image}{image} comments &advice are welcome,thanks.
Your CADJPY analysis is good, I agree with your charts.

AUDUSD trade is a bit aggressive without that 4h SZ being removed meaning you don’t have a good initial profit margin. Once that zone is removed then you have a really nice ‘path of least resistance’ up to D1 SZ. We are in a downtrend on the D1 so this 4h SZ might be the zone for a pullback to continue the down trend...

regards

MiyagiFX
  • #7,146
  • Feb 13, 2019 8:33am Feb 13, 2019 8:33am
Quoting MiyagiFX
{quote} Your CADJPY analysis is good, I agree with your charts. AUDUSD trade is a bit aggressive without that 4h SZ being removed meaning you don’t have a good initial profit margin. Once that zone is removed then you have a really nice ‘path of least resistance’ up to D1 SZ. We are in a downtrend on the D1 so this 4h SZ might be the zone for a pullback to continue the down trend... regards MiyagiFX
Thank you miyagifx for your reply,could you view the chart (H4) below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD H4 EXPLIAN 13TH FEB.png Size: 39 KB
  • #7,147
  • Feb 13, 2019 8:38am Feb 13, 2019 8:38am
Quoting Diddyy
{quote} Thank you miyagifx for your reply,could you view the chart (H4) below.{image}
You still don’t have good initial profit margin with that green SZ on the 4h. Until that is removed I wouldn’t place a trade at the DZ. That is my opinion, a more conservative one. Am I right or wrong....neither, I’m just being less aggressive than you. It is a CP zone so is weaker against the trend.
  • #7,148
  • Feb 13, 2019 9:11pm Feb 13, 2019 9:11pm
Quoting MiyagiFX
{quote} You still don’t have good initial profit margin with that green SZ on the 4h. Until that is removed I wouldn’t place a trade at the DZ. That is my opinion, a more conservative one. Am I right or wrong....neither, I’m just being less aggressive than you. It is a CP zone so is weaker against the trend.
i understand,thank you again miyagifx.
  • #7,149
  • Feb 14, 2019 3:13am Feb 14, 2019 3:13am
Hello everyone,analysis on NZDJPY,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY DAILY 14TH FEB.png Size: 25 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY H4 14TH FEB.png Size: 19 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY H1 14TH FEB.png Size: 20 KB
  • #7,150
  • Feb 14, 2019 5:28am Feb 14, 2019 5:28am
Quoting Diddyy
Hello everyone,analysis on NZDJPY,{image}{image}{image}
Won't hold, in fact the zone is already pierced
  • #7,151
  • Feb 14, 2019 9:56am Feb 14, 2019 9:56am
CADCHF almost 1:5 short trade
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To break the rules you must first master them.
  • #7,152
  • Feb 15, 2019 5:39am Feb 15, 2019 5:39am
Quoting Mr.PhiBo
CADCHF almost 1:5 short trade{image}{image}{image}{image}
nice Mr.Phibo

you've been gone for awhile I see..
"Fall in love with the process and the results will follow" - Bradley Whitf
  • #7,153
  • Feb 15, 2019 5:40am Feb 15, 2019 5:40am
Trade Idea on EURAUD

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"Fall in love with the process and the results will follow" - Bradley Whitf
  • #7,154
  • Feb 15, 2019 5:57am Feb 15, 2019 5:57am
Quoting T4i
Trade Idea on EURAUD {image}
Hi T4i,

I have the same analysis as you, I’ve had an alert at the proximal line of the D1 chart ready to alert me when price approaches the 4h DZ for a few days now, just got to be patient.

Would you wait for a confirmation on the 4h seeing as the trade will be countertrend on that timeframe?

Regards

MiyagiFX
  • #7,155
  • Feb 15, 2019 6:27am Feb 15, 2019 6:27am
Quoting MiyagiFX
{quote} Hi T4i, I have the same analysis as you, I’ve had an alert at the proximal line of the D1 chart ready to alert me when price approaches the 4h DZ for a few days now, just got to be patient. Would you wait for a confirmation on the 4h seeing as the trade will be countertrend on that timeframe? Regards MiyagiFX
cool..

I am taking that 4hr zone as is.
"Fall in love with the process and the results will follow" - Bradley Whitf
  • #7,156
  • Edited 9:38am Feb 15, 2019 8:32am | Edited 9:38am
Quoting T4i
{quote} cool.. I am taking that 4hr zone as is.
As in you’re taking a ‘set and forget’ trade?

It isnt an original/authentic zone on the 4h and neither is the D1 zone....shouldn’t you wait for confirmation?

edit:
i had another look....are you taking the 4h zone as a set and forget as it is a confirmation trade on the daily (we have a break in momentum in daily at weekly DZ) and therefor taking smaller zone within the daily to reduce you risk....
  • #7,157
  • Feb 15, 2019 8:52am Feb 15, 2019 8:52am
Quoting T4i
Trade Idea on EURAUD {image}
Doubt it is going to hold.

Weekly demand gave a reaction. The 4hr is a reaction of the previous zone which also happens to be a reaction of another zone.
  • #7,158
  • Feb 17, 2019 4:39am Feb 17, 2019 4:39am
Quoting MiyagiFX
{quote} As in you’re taking a ‘set and forget’ trade? It isnt an original/authentic zone on the 4h and neither is the D1 zone....shouldn’t you wait for confirmation? edit: i had another look....are you taking the 4h zone as a set and forget as it is a confirmation trade on the daily (we have a break in momentum in daily at weekly DZ) and therefor taking smaller zone within the daily to reduce you risk....
correct
"Fall in love with the process and the results will follow" - Bradley Whitf
  • #7,159
  • Feb 17, 2019 8:19am Feb 17, 2019 8:19am
Quoting Diddyy
Hello everyone,analysis on NZDJPY,{image}{image}{image}
Hello Diddy
Thank you for posting this idea on the NZDJPY.

If you don't mind pls, I would like to use it for a brief post-trade review, something all Roundtable members are required to do on their trades.
All this is in hindsight of course but it won't remove from the learning we can gain from reviewing the trade, learning that can then help in future.
As you know, we are very invested in processes, systems, steps and checklists, not outcomes.

Best wishes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdjpy d diddy.PNG Size: 41 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #7,160
  • Feb 18, 2019 5:22am Feb 18, 2019 5:22am
Quoting T4i
{quote} nice Mr.Phibo you've been gone for awhile I see..
Hello, Thank you. Yeah I think I was offline on forexfactory over a year or so. No trades, no posts. But I think I'm back with trading and posting. Have a good week!
To break the rules you must first master them.
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