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The Swamp

  • #29,981
  • Feb 8, 2019 2:02am Feb 8, 2019 2:02am
Could not resist the temptation to sell more at 39.
I am going to freeride this in a few pips
Riding the Dragon....
  • #29,982
  • Feb 8, 2019 2:23am Feb 8, 2019 2:23am
2/8/2019 Levels

RU R3 ----------1.1386
WP S2 ----------1.1377
FP R2 ----------1.1371
RU R2 ----------1.1365
FP R1 ----------1.1361
RU R1 ----------1.1357
FP PP ----------1.1344
WP S3 ----------1.1329
RU S1 ----------1.1329
MP S1 ----------1.1328
FP S1 ----------1.1327
FP S2 ----------1.1317
RU S2 ----------1.1317
FP S3 ----------1.1300
RU S3 ----------1.1297
  • #29,983
  • Feb 8, 2019 2:32am Feb 8, 2019 2:32am
Morning Boulder.
32 reached and ALL my positions are free riders.
With a clear prospect of a further 40-50 pips of a downmove, the day starts bright!
I might short even more. So far all is cristal clear
Riding the Dragon....
  • #29,984
  • Feb 8, 2019 2:33am Feb 8, 2019 2:33am
Quoting Farstrider
Morning Boulder. 32 reached and ALL my positions are free riders. With a clear prospect of a further 40-50 pips of a downmove, the day starts bright! I might short even more. So far all is cristal clear
good.. I have shorts working too...plan to close around 1317...
No news in US today... today maybe we see the last push from bears
  • #29,985
  • Feb 8, 2019 2:39am Feb 8, 2019 2:39am
bears should be able to squeeze out 1311/1235.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #29,986
  • Edited 3:50am Feb 8, 2019 2:42am | Edited 3:50am
Quoting gatorinla
bears should be able to squeeze out 1311 or less.
Good morning.. Gator......it looks like that way...

1317 next to print...

FP PP ----------1.1344
WP S3 ----------1.1329
RU S1 ----------1.1329
MP S1 ----------1.1328
FP S1 ----------1.1327
FP S2 ----------1.1317
RU S2 ----------1.1317
FP S3 ----------1.1300
RU S3 ----------1.1297
add -------------1.1289
  • #29,987
  • Feb 8, 2019 2:58am Feb 8, 2019 2:58am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Good morning.. Gator......it looks like that way... 1317 next to print... FP PP ----------1.1344 WP S3 ----------1.1329 RU S1 ----------1.1329 MP S1 ----------1.1328 FP S1 ----------1.1327 FP S2 ----------1.1317 RU S2 ----------1.1317 FP S3 ----------1.1300 RU S3 ----------1.1297
I won't be around much today, later. atm 1330 or 34 may be all you get on a bounce.

1340/49 safest. pa may should not get above 1349x is my take. maybe not even 1334
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #29,988
  • Feb 8, 2019 3:06am Feb 8, 2019 3:06am
Quoting gatorinla
bears should be able to squeeze out 1311/1235.
For me the safe TP is in 11300-11310 band. Would like the sub 90ies in the 12x area.

What gets me pondering now is the overall scenario in play. My initial bias about the 50 fib mark was wrong (dive under and revisiting of fhe previous fib). That cost me about 45% of the earnings on the previous move.

Now I am considering both main scenarios
1. Dive under and revisiting the 50 fib mark. If in line with the current play around the 50, turning point should be in 11285-11275. Best entry at this point 11280-11282. Than back to 1135x and further drop.

2. Compression: Bounce in the 11295-11310 area. This entails revisiting 61.8 but a probability of a significant overshot is not negligible. Normally 1400-1410 would contain it but numbers such as 11418; 11425 are in play as well.

I have an overall feeling thet the game has changed to a more rapid decline and we might be out of the ziz-zag zone. Which means that scenario 1 is in favor
Riding the Dragon....
  • #29,989
  • Feb 8, 2019 3:10am Feb 8, 2019 3:10am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I won't be around much today, later. atm 1330 or 34 may be all you get on a bounce. 1340/49 safest. pa may should not get above 1349x is my take. maybe not even 1334
Dollar ready to pop...
  • #29,990
  • Feb 8, 2019 3:17am Feb 8, 2019 3:17am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Dollar ready to pop...
yep... at least the risk is much less.. Everything i have is usd bullish. its likely eu bearish to test 120x..I have fresh eu weakness on day. that could last weeks plus. I cant say support will break.. But I think it will.. not much news till wednesday
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #29,991
  • Feb 8, 2019 3:26am Feb 8, 2019 3:26am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Everything i have is usd bullish. its likely eu bearish to test 120x..I have fresh eu weakness on day.
  • #29,992
  • Feb 8, 2019 3:28am Feb 8, 2019 3:28am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} yep... at least the risk is much less.. Everything i have is usd bullish. its likely eu bearish to test 120x..I have fresh eu weakness on day. that could last weeks plus. I cant say support will break.. But I think it will.. not much news till wednesday
I booked my shorts at 1326... sideline for now..,.
  • #29,993
  • Feb 8, 2019 3:29am Feb 8, 2019 3:29am
Todays option Expire

- $EURUSD 1.1280 (902mln), 1.1380 (1bln)
  • #29,994
  • Feb 8, 2019 3:30am Feb 8, 2019 3:30am
Quoting gatorinla
Last like setup on the 5min dropped 110ish pips. Last time some of the higher tf were not committed. This time many more are. cd is about 1235ish.. The usdx has that last day hurdle at 96.59/62.. lots of sky after.
this was the take at 1356. a possible small db now has formed since. possible norm entry 1340.. stops limited to 1349 plus spread (5 min R). its not meant to long to 1340. its extremely bearish
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #29,995
  • Feb 8, 2019 3:55am Feb 8, 2019 3:55am
Quoting ill_be_back
Pending BUY {image}
still want to buy that 1304??.. I plan my long list.. one I will 1289...
  • #29,996
  • Feb 8, 2019 4:12am Feb 8, 2019 4:12am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} this was the take at 1356. a possible small db now has formed since. possible norm entry 1340.. stops limited to 1349 plus spread (5 min R). its not meant to long to 1340. its extremely bearish
I see a bottom formed on 5 min. Temporary thing. Closed my last sell from 39 and opened a pending there with larger size.
Riding the Dragon....
  • #29,997
  • Feb 8, 2019 4:30am Feb 8, 2019 4:30am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} still want to buy that 1304??.. I plan my long list.. one I will 1289...
My TP on this lot is 12900
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Focus.
  • #29,998
  • Feb 8, 2019 5:02am Feb 8, 2019 5:02am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} this was the take at 1356. a possible small db now has formed since. possible norm entry 1340.. stops limited to 1349 plus spread (5 min R). its not meant to long to 1340. its extremely bearish
So far didn't reach 40 by a fraction of a pip.
I'm in at 39
Is this the top?
Riding the Dragon....
  • #29,999
  • Feb 8, 2019 5:06am Feb 8, 2019 5:06am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Be careful to short.. H1 downtrend has been running 90+ hours,, very high possibility the trend will reverse tonight... Just let you know... Good night , Gator.. see you here tomorrow...
H1 down trend stop 1354 atm...
  • #30,000
  • Feb 8, 2019 5:13am Feb 8, 2019 5:13am
Quoting Farstrider
{quote} So far didn't reach 40 by a fraction of a pip. I'm in at 39 Is this the top?
I dont know.. all tf looks bearish to me. Boulder's one 1 hour is extended X2 time wise.. not news till wednesday.
to me 1340.x was/is still missed by a pip. my 5 min has 1349 as a unlikely broken R.. pa may get stuck some

Week wise, the usd AWR is near at 96.70
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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