Deceiving Headline Numbers | Forex Factory

Options

Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Headline Research --> Capital Flow --> Which Markets To Watch 0 replies

MT4 Detailed statement numbers are not numbers? 2 replies

Are charts a little bit deceiving? 9 replies

Fibonacci numbers and their relevance to forex, by MTi Europe 0 replies

Vegas Tunnel & Fibonacci Numbers 4 replies

Deceiving Headline Numbers

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 15, 2006 5:40am Oct 15, 2006 5:40am
Many were fooled by the last Retail Sales. It was sure negative headline number but when people looked at the details, it was positive after all.

Again 2 fridays ago, NFP kicked a lot of people's behind with the "revision" number.

This week, we are having PPI and CPI.

Question: Does these numbers have any "breakdown" numbers like Price index for fuel, for food, for etc...

Fuel is a clear no brainer. It dropped and with that I predict that the negativity in the coming CPI/PPI will again CAUSE a massive USD bull once again (unless of course that the actual is USD bullish already)..

I sure will not trade this news based on the headline number alone. I would straddle it but will be ready with a market order hiting the sell if its USD bull and hit sell if there is an upmove (expecting it will drop).
  • #2
  • Oct 15, 2006 8:07am Oct 15, 2006 8:07am
Personally I straddle only in a very few instances any more. The Brokers widening of the market as created a need for me to adapt. And if I believe that there is a 50-50 chance of whipsaw I will NOT straddle.

I would educate myself about the numbers and perhaps put an entry order in the direction that I think the market will go. I will also watch the report.

Some newstraders try to beat the spike...that is not how I trade. I wait for the news to come out...I have a predetermined TRADING PLAN in place. If it appears to be a solid move...and I understand the report in a minute or two, I enter the market.

BK...this is one reason why your historical charts are so very helpful...it gives me parameters to work off of.

Keep them coming.

DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #3
  • Edited 9:21am Oct 15, 2006 9:10am | Edited 9:21am
I've posted this elsewhere on FF, but in both the NFP and retail sales numbers, when we had reports that first looked one way-then the other, there was more then enough time to listen to plain old bloomberg TV or radio, get the numbers, listen to their analysis and make a trade. On the retail sales number, the EURO was still at 40 2 minutes after the report. Dr C has a good sounding plan there, but you still have to remember a couple of things.

Trading at this time is still tricky; slips and requotes are possible. I personally go strictly by the Bloomberg interpetation myself before making a trade, but if you get that right you still have a chance to make something. You also need to have a sense of what a report is worth to a currency. Most off consensus reports tend to be worth about 60 pips from the pre-release price, but that can vary. Obviously revissions are possible so you need to know what they mean. The more numbers, including revissions, that are released simultaneously, the better the chances that you'll see what happened with the NFP and Retail Sales.
  • #4
  • Oct 15, 2006 9:57am Oct 15, 2006 9:57am
Quoting NewstraderFX
I personally go strictly by the Bloomberg interpetation myself before making a trade,
exactly what bloomberg interpretation are you talking about? do you mean from the bloomberg terminal?
Relax and be happy.
  • #5
  • Oct 15, 2006 10:00am Oct 15, 2006 10:00am
Quoting BurgerKing
Question: Does these numbers have any "breakdown" numbers like Price index for fuel, for food, for etc...
yes they sure do. every headline number is a compilation of a shitload of data.

for instance, here is the reports from last month...

CPI
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm (see table A)

PPI
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.t01.htm
Relax and be happy.
  • #6
  • Oct 15, 2006 12:32pm Oct 15, 2006 12:32pm
Quoting merlin
exactly what bloomberg interpretation are you talking about? do you mean from the bloomberg terminal?
Merlin,

I just go to the Bloomberg website and then go to the currency news. It always has good information that tells me how to look at the report coming out. For example, in the Retail Sales report...you are right...this report was bad.

But according to the Bloomberg reports if the number -gas and autos was +.4 or better it would exert positive USD pressure...well it came out +.6

Many times I find that the market reaction just does NOT coincide with the report. But I also find that the Bloomberg prognosticators seem to have a very good grasp on what to expect. They are usually very close.

In fact if I don't get a clear grasp of expectations I usually stand aside.

It really helps me in my trading.

DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #7
  • Oct 15, 2006 12:43pm Oct 15, 2006 12:43pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
Trading at this time is still tricky; slips and requotes are possible. I personally go strictly by the Bloomberg interpetation myself before making a trade, but if you get that right you still have a chance to make something. You also need to have a sense of what a report is worth to a currency. Most off consensus reports tend to be worth about 60 pips from the pre-release price, but that can vary. Obviously revissions are possible so you need to know what they mean. The more numbers, including revissions, that are released simultaneously, the better the chances that you'll see what happened with the NFP and Retail Sales.
NewstraderFX,

I have two brokers that I use. I have mentioned this in other posts. One does NOT widen the market in most cases (excluding NFP of course). The other widens the market, but they fill my market orders without slippage and requotes. I have found these brokers through personal experience, and there are many that do NOT like them. You can find them both on FF.

I also agree...the more numbers being released the more conservative I become. But then I am not after getting rich on one trade...I just want steady...consistent gains while minimizing my losses.

If you read my trade post on the Retail Sales you will see that my strategy was specifically designed with all of the numbers (Bloombergs analysis) in mind. This also happened with the NFP...I had a pretty good day with that report also.

I do think though that we can put way too much knowledge in our heads. It just serves to confuse. I put 1/3 of my energy in education about the trade and 2/3 of energy in my TRADE PLAN. I think that many of those who visit here do the opposite. If they even put anything into the specific plan at all.

Just MHO


DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #8
  • Oct 15, 2006 1:29pm Oct 15, 2006 1:29pm
Quoting drcole1
NewstraderFX,
I put 1/3 of my energy in education about the trade and 2/3 of energy in my TRADE PLAN. I think that many of those who visit here do the opposite. If they even put anything into the specific plan at all.

Just MHO


DC
Hi drcole:

This sounds like the kind of trading I would like to develop.

What exactly do you mean by the TRADE PLAN? Could you specify? Is it like some kind of "Emergency Plan" that considers "What if..." Scenarios?

Thanks for you valuable time!

PC
  • #9
  • Last Post: Oct 15, 2006 1:43pm Oct 15, 2006 1:43pm
Quoting petercross
Hi drcole:

This sounds like the kind of trading I would like to develop.

What exactly do you mean by the TRADE PLAN? Could you specify? Is it like some kind of "Emergency Plan" that considers "What if..." Scenarios?

Thanks for you valuable time!

PC
Petercross,

Many traders seem to be stuck in one mode of trading...."I straddle the market" for example. Or "I only fade the news", as another example.

I believe that the more weapons you have in your arsenal the better. Have I straddled the news? Yes. Have I faded the news? Yes, but of all of my methods, this is the one I am least experienced with. I also use what I call a new trend method, and a two point method, (similar to the A-B idea).

I am always looking for different tools to use. This keeps my trading fresh and adaptable.

So after I research the report (1/3 of my energy) I take the next step to formulate my TRADE PLAN for this specific trade!!!!!

I look at historical charts. Preferably the whole year. (BK's work has been invaluable to me in this regard)
I then ascertain the risks. Does it whipsaw? Does it trend nicely for the day? Does it move alot or just a little? Etc.

After I have a full grasp of all of the above then I make a decision. Straddle, one entry stop in the way of trend, or entry stop in way of expected move, perhaps a fade, or my two point method. (let the first 2 one minute candles close and then pick an entry point)

Once I determine my PLAN I stick to it. WITHOUT DEVIATION!!

I hope this helps a little. I know that there are alot of holes with this explanation but really it is my experience that you, and you alone are the only one who can trade for you....and you are the only one who can put together your arsenal and your method and your individual trade plan.

But I would be more than happy to help in any way.

DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
0 traders viewing now