Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Thanks Benjaminis for you reply, should I call you Benjaminis or BWM??

Would you mind answering more questions?? Here are they:-

 

1. When am I expecting 1.00 hr mentoring from you?? Having said that I work Mon-Fri, 8.00-4.30pm NY time.
   Could you plz adjust your time for me so I could learn.

 

1. Which Time Frame you follow??
2. Do you trade currencies also?? Because CAC, DAX FTSE or EQUITIES are other than currency.
3. You said NO indicators, then how would we know about VOLUME?? Or the TREND??
4. Who is your BROKER in Live Account??
5. Do you only follow PRICE ACTION??

 

1. In real trading world, DOES broker play against us(traders)??
   
2. What’s your success rate( you can ignore this question if you want )??
   
3. Do you trade everyday??
   
4. Do you believe that History Repeat in forex??
   
   
   Thanking you in advance. Take care.
   loveandpeace

Thanks Benjaminis for you reply, should I call you Benjaminis or BWM??

My first name is Bruce

My English Jewish name is Benjamin.

You can call me your friend.

Would you mind answering more questions?? Here are they:-

 

1. When am I expecting 1.00 hr mentoring from you?? Having said that I work Mon-Fri, 8.00-4.30pm NY time.
   Could you plz adjust your time for me so I could learn.

Benjamin: We could spend about one hour after 7 P Eastern Standard Time.

 

1. Which Time Frame you follow??

Benjamin: I trade from 2:00 AM EST to 6:00 PM EST Monday to Friday.

1. Do you trade currencies also?? Because CAC, DAX FTSE or EQUITIES are other than currency.

Benjamin: Because you can now trade the CAC and DAX and FTSE on this platform as CFD's Contracts For Difference then we could also trade them

. My corporation manages money and I trade equities on the TSE and TSX Venture. I usually average a return of 250% yearly for my corporation and it"s shareholders.

1. You said NO indicators, then how would we know about VOLUME?? Or the TREND??

Benjamin: I only Trade with the Trend. I determine the TREND by the fundamentals not the technicals. I use the technicals to decide where is the best entry. As for exit my plan determines that.

1. Who is your BROKER in Live Account??

I deal with AVA Trade in Ireland and soon Friedberg in Toronto through AVA Trade.

 

1. Do you only follow PRICE ACTION??

Benjamin: The only PRICE ACTION that I follow is my MONEY FLOW as Assets move from the different classes such as Stocks and Bonds and Commodities.

Post any other questions that you might have.

Thank You...

 

1. In real trading world, DOES broker play against us(traders)??

Benjamin: Always !!!

1. What’s your success rate( you can ignore this question if you want )??

Benjamin: I win over 75% of all my Forex trades and my monthly return on investment is over 15% and 180 % yearly.

PROOF available upon request to accredited investors that I am friends with as I do not deal with the Public.

1. Do you trade everyday??

Benjamin: I trade from Sunday at 3:00 AM starting in Wellington New Zealand occasionally until Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time.

1. Do you believe that History Repeat in forex ?

Benjamin: The MONEY FLOW is different each day and YES in many ways History and Forex repeats through Recessions and Boom Times.

1. Thanking you in advance. Take care.
   loveandpeace

https://goldswitzerland.com/de-gaull...enkOLYGtzouARE

Tinker, tailor, soldier, sailor, rich man, poor man, beggar man, thief

This old nursery rhyme, or counting game, dating back from the late 17th century, could be seen as a prediction of things to come. Many people, from various backgrounds, could soon realize that they may become a poor man, beggar man or thief within the next 5 to 10 years as the world experiences a massive wealth destruction.


Tinker used to be someone who traveled around to mend pans and utensils. The verb Tinker also means to tamper with or manipulate. No one should be under the illusion that the powers that be in any way are tinkering or repairing the world economy. No, the tinkering that is going on tells us that we are now in the very final stages of the biggest manipulation or rigging of the world economy, markets, gold, news, politics and people etc that the world has ever experienced.


THE WORLD IS UNPREPARED FOR WHAT IS TO COME
Since this level of manipulation has never, ever occurred in history, no one can predict the magnitude of the collapse that will take place. Even worse, 99.99% of the world’s population is totally unprepared for what is going to come. And even the minuscule minority who are predicting a cataclysmic event will not evade the suffering that would follow.


No one knows where or how it will begin. It can start with a slow decline in the economy and markets or there could be a sudden and sharp drop, taking everyone by surprise. What is certain is that the consequences will be devastating for the majority of people. Many will lose their jobs, social security benefits, pensions, medical care and all the normal supports that they have been used to.


Also, very few realize that the high standard of living in the West in the last many decades has nothing to do with real economic growth or productivity. Instead it is all based on debt and printed money to the extent of at least $500 trillion including unfunded liabilities such as medical care and pensions.


THERE ARE NO RESERVES
A rigged world economy based on debt has no foundations and no reserves. The bubble can be expanded for a limited time by just issuing more debt and this is what we have seen since the 2006-9 financial crisis. The fake life support that the world economy has received in the last 10 years, in the form of additional debt of $125 trillion, has inflated asset markets to the extent that the rich are getting insanely richer and the poor are just landed with more debt. But doubling global debt in 10 years to $250 trillion has not just doubled risk. Instead, risk has grown exponentially as the quality of the debt has deteriorated catastrophically.


Global government debt is at record highs and at unsustainable levels and so is corporate debt and personal debt. The problem is that there are no reserves.

To draw an analogy with people and longevity, very fat and very thin people on average live shorter lives than the ones with moderate overweight. Because the extra fat reserves protects you in periods of weakness or disease. The same with the world economy, when the next crisis comes it will become evident that the world has no reserves. The only way the world can deal with the next debt crisis is by printing money and issuing more debt. But you can’t solve a debt problem with more debt.

When the crisis soon hits the world, corporate profits will suffer. Highly indebted companies will not meet their debt covenants, especially as interest rates will also rise with inflation going up and bond prices collapse. So companies will default on their debt. Same with the property market. Commercial property will suffer as tenants can’t afford the rents. Same with retail property which will collapse as spending comes down. The West and especially the USA is over-shopped with retail space and most of it at very high rents. As people lose their jobs and interest rates rise, the housing market will collapse by 75% to 90%.


DAILY GOLD TRADING 850X DAILY MINE PRODUCTION
Of all the manipulated markets, gold might be the worst of them all. Investment gold represents less than 0.5% of world financial assets. Why then one might ask are daily traded gross gold volumes over 2x the S&P 500 volumes. According to the World Gold Council, gross traded daily gold volume is US$280 billion. The daily S&P volume is $125 billion.


Annual gold mine production is $120 billion or $329 million per day. So why is daily gold trading at $280 billion, 850x daily mine production of gold?

Who shuffles paper gold back and forth to the extent of over 1/4 of $1 trillion on a daily basis. It can’t be the investment market which is very small. It could be speculators but not at that magnitude. Most likely is that the bullion banks are trading massive amounts of gold to cover up for the major shortage of physical gold and especially central bank gold. We know that bullion banks and futures exchanges only have a fraction of physical gold to cover the outstanding paper gold commitments.
http://goldswitzerland.com/wp-conten...ly_trading.jpg


SILK ROAD BUYS ALL MINE PRODUCTION
The official Central Bank gold reserves are around 32,000 tonnes. This figure probably understates the holdings of many Eastern countries like China. The gold buying of the Silk Road countries China, India, Turkey and Russia is relentless. Since 2005 they have bought 33,000 tonnes. The buying accelerated in 2008 and since then they have bought 29,000 tonnes. This means that in the last 11 years, these Silk Road countries have bought virtually the total gold production every year.
http://goldswitzerland.com/wp-conten..._road_gold.jpg


IS THERE ANY US GOLD LEFT?
Gold Reserves are supposed to be just what they are called, Reserves to back the currency and the stability of the country. In spite of that many countries like the USA, UK and Switzerland have reduced their reserves significantly. Switzerland and the UK sold most of their gold at rock bottom prices at the end of the 1990s. The US had 20,000 tonnes at the end of the 1950s but then sold 12,000 tonnes between 1958 and 1971. Looking at the chart below, the US stopped selling gold after Nixon had closed the gold window in August 1971. One might ask if they have actually stopped selling or if they have just stopped reporting the sales? Until August 15, 1971, Sovereign states could demand payment of debt owed by the US in gold. De Gaulle did this for France and that is one importing reason why Nixon ceased the gold backing of the dollar.
http://goldswitzerland.com/wp-conten.../trust_gov.jpg


Virtually no central bank in the world publishes a full physical audit of their physical gold or any derivatives positions. The US has not done this since the 1950s. Same in most other countries. Since gold is a major asset held by the state, there should obviously be a detailed independent audit. The only reason why no country undertakes or publishes an audit is clearly because they don’t have the gold. A full audit of Western central bank gold would most probably reveal that the majority of the gold is gone. Some banks might have paper gold but they will never get the physical back since that has gone to China and India.


DE GAULLE WAS CERTAIN THERE IS NO US GOLD LEFT
Sources who were close to de Gaulle have informed me that he (de Gaulle) was certain already in the late 1960s that the US had no gold left.

Obviously I have no proof but neither do I have any proof that the gold actually exists. More about this subject in a later article.

The lack of audits and the massive trading of paper gold, does point to the fact that there is something more sinister going on in the gold market.

This is all likely to be revealed when the real pressure on the dollar starts and gold rises fast. At that time paper holders of gold will ask for delivery and China and Russia will call the US bluff.

Before then, it is imperative to hold physical gold in a safe jurisdiction and outside the financial system.




GOLD IS NOW ON ITS WAY TO NEW HIGHS
Short term, the next up-leg in gold has started as I have predicted for a while. This will be a long move to much higher levels. So buying gold today around $1,300 for wealth preservation purposes will in a few years be seen as a superb insurance and a bargain of a lifetime.
http://goldswitzerland.com/wp-conten...019/01/end.jpg



Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Managing Partner
Matterhorn Asset Management
Zurich, Switzerland
Phone: +41 44 213 62 45

Matterhorn Asset Management’s global client base strategically stores an important part of their wealth in Switzerland in physical gold and silver outside the banking system. Matterhorn Asset Management is pleased to deliver a unique and exceptional service to our highly esteemed wealth preservation clientele in over 60 countries.
GoldSwitzerland.com

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/r...yCAzE.facebook

625
Blog/Real Estate
Posted Jan 31, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
https://d33wjekvz3zs1a.cloudfront.ne...ic-markets.jpg


QUESTION: I work in the construction industry in Phoenix Arizona and there has been a boom in new construction for apartments, condos massive housing tracts and all of the retail that follows this.

When I read about your worldwide property crash forecast the economic forecast for growth in our market is that that there is no end in sight for the next 6-8 years.

Are these guys whistling past the graveyard??

Thanks and keep up the good work!
JW


ANSWER: There are 8 states without an income tax (Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington, Wyoming, and Tennessee). You are in one of them that is receiving NET population growth. There are herds migrating there from California. Now that said, the real estate market will have an undying bid in those states, but that will be specific to particular regions within the state. However, the trend that will cap the real estate is clearly interest rates and banks.

The greater the decline in confidence in government, the less likely it will be to find long-term mortgages. The 30-year fixed rates mortgage will eventually vanish.

During the Great Depression, real estate collapsed to 10% for there was no money available for loans whatsoever. On June 13, 1933, President Roosevelt signed the Home Owners’ Loan Act into law thereby creating the 30-year mortgage to try to give people time to buy a home that they otherwise could not afford without having the cash. This is the 86-year cycle due here in 2019. This really implies that we may see a Directional Change whereby the confidence in the future will start to decline because of political instability. Of course, we can now count on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to scream about taxing the rich and their property. The Democrats WILL look into creating a major tax increases and this will seriously harm the economy. We will see a collapse in capital investment resulting in money for 30-year mortgages drying up.

Hence, they always say there is no end in sight to all booms. We should still see 2019 provide a peak in new construction as capital becomes scarce to fund such projects.

Categories: Real Estate
Tags: Income Tax, Mortgages, Real Estate, Real Estate Bubble

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...1pIe8.facebook

Posted Jan 31, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
https://d33wjekvz3zs1a.cloudfront.ne...Jet-Stream.jpg


QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong,
Thanks for the Socrates forecast.

Just a question. What will possibly happen to existing Tropic Belt countries like my region South East Asia when the world is turning into global cooling? Any forecast?

Regards,
SS


ANSWER: I am awaiting their data to run it through and see what comes out. This is what I mean about opinion. How can anyone forecast something without the data? What we do know is also that the Jet Stream moves up and down, so it would make sense that the Tropic Belt would also do the same. The Jet Stream has been dipping as well and creating a very diverse curve pattern. So this produced the COLDEST New Year’s Eve on record last year. This is also why you have people who want to claim it is irrelevant if people die of cold in Wales. They argue that since it is warm where they are in Canada, it must prove that Global Warming is real. They are not the brightest bulb in the box.
https://d33wjekvz3zs1a.cloudfront.ne...am-Pacific.jpg


Then we have the Pacific Jet Stream. These people who always try to reduce any effect to a single cause should be barred from any research EVER!!! If you want to understand how interconnected our planet is then you also need to look at and study El Niño. The interconnectivity is similar to all the world financial markets, which create a level of complexity beyond most human’s ability to rationalize. Both the weather system and the financial system function on an extremely high level of complexity. The patterns and events in one place can affect life on the other side of the planet in both systems.


Hence, one person will argue it is Global Warming because they happen to be in a hot spot and others are dying in blizzard conditions. I moved to the Tampa area where hopefully the Jet Stream does not bring ice on my windshield. Nevertheless, it has been unseasonably cold here as well and it has even dipped into the 30s at night as far south as Miami.


Then we have the real simple minded people who actually believe we would drown if all the ice melted in the Arctic. They have completely forgotten about EVAPORATION. If the ice melted, that water would mix with the Atlantic and Pacific, causing them to become colder. But then the Arctic would be able to evaporate. This is how Ice Ages take place for a very long time because the water returns as snow and that is how the glaciers build.


There have been at least five major ice ages in the Earth’s history (the Huronian, Cryogenian, Andean-Saharan, Karoo Ice Age, and the current Quaternary Ice Age). Aside from these ages, the Earth seems to have been ice-free even in high latitudes. This is a historical fact that the Global Warming people ignore. Based upon the data we have gathered, there appears to be a cycle of 430 million years. This agrees with the 8.6-year frequency. The last Ice Age was the Quaternary glaciation, which was actually a series of glacial events separated by interglacial events. This began 2.58 million years ago, so at least according to our models, we have plenty of spare time left in this cycle. However, the ice caps today that the Global Warming people are screaming about are the remnants of that period. There is a bottom to the Arctic ice cap. The Antarctic ice sheet actually began to form earlier (about 34 million years ago) in the mid-Cenozoic to late Cenozoic Ice Age period. That means there have been periods that existed without ANY ice caps. We cannot blame even Egyptians for climate change since civilization did not exist back in those days.


This is my problem with the whole Global Warming nonsense being attributed to humans. I would agree if they could show me evidence that such a condition NEVER existed previously before the Industrial Revolution. To me, this is just a cycle and we should respect that the planet if a far more complex system than these idiots put out. NOTHING can ever be reduced to a single cause and effect.


Categories: Climate
Tags: Climate Change, Global Cooling, Global Warming
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https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item...l=ELD&region=C


Eldorado Gold Corp (2) Symbol C : ELD Shares Issued 158,801,722 Close 2019-01-30 C$ 3.86 Recent Sedar Documents
View Original Document



Eldorado resumes mining, heap leaching at Kisladag


2019-01-30 16:29 PT - News Release

Mr. Peter Lekich reports
ELDORADO ANNOUNCES DECISION TO RESUME MINING AND HEAP LEACHING AT KISLADAG; PROVIDES CONSOLIDATED 2019-2021 OUTLOOK

Eldorado Gold Corp. will resume mining, crushing, stacking and heap leaching at its Kisladag gold mine in Turkey. Advancement of the previously announced mill project has been suspended. The Company is also providing three year consolidated production guidance, along with detailed cost guidance for 2019.

Eldorado's President and CEO, George Burns, stated: "The Company remains focused on shareholder value in its capital allocation decisions taking into account the interests and expectations of all stakeholders. The decision to restart mining and heap leaching at Kisladag is supported by improved heap leach recoveries and confirmed by a revised heap leaching plan developed in early 2019. The revised heap leaching plan results in favourable economics when compared to milling, without the risks associated with the construction and financing of a $500 million project."

"At Lamaque, we are very pleased with the performance of our project team who delivered the first gold pour from the Sigma Mill in less than 18 months since acquisition. The Company continues to anticipate commercial gold production during the first quarter of 2019 and expects total output, including pre-commercial production, in excess of 100,000 ounces for 2019."

"Beyond completing remaining construction at Lamaque, Eldorado has no major capital projects underway and will remain focused on existing operations in order to realize the full potential from these assets. With annual gold production growing to over 500,000 ounces in 2020, the Company expects to generate significant free cash flow over the next three years and will consider debt retirement starting later this year."

Kisladag Update
On October 23, 2017 , the Company provided an update on Kisladag operations based on laboratory test work undertaken during the third quarter, which indicated that lower recoveries were expected from the zone of mineralization located around the base of the open pit where mining was underway. Based on available information, in the first quarter 2018, the Company elected to suspend mining in order to evaluate processing options. Following a year of engineering and testwork, in October 2018 the Company announced that the Board of Directors had approved the advancement of a mill project. Subsequent to that announcement, gold recovery from the leach pad increasingly exceeded expectations. The Company then focused testwork and analysis on the viability of resuming mining and heap leaching at Kisladag.

In parallel to mill engineering and analysis, testwork to extract maximum value from material already placed on the heap leach pad and the remaining reserves was ongoing throughout 2018. Approximately 900,000 tonnes of ore were placed on an inter-lift lined test pad in the first quarter of 2018. Late in the year, results from this pad were showing recoveries of approximately 58% from an extended leach cycle approaching 250 days (compared to approximately 40% recoveries from the original 90 day column tests). In early 2019, the Company analyzed the new data and developed revised heap leaching plans, showing improved economics for the heap leaching scenario. As a result, the Company decided to resume mining and heap leaching.

The benefits of resuming mining and heap leaching are expected to include:

 

1. Improved economics of heap leaching when compared to the mill project, demonstrates an increase in production and free cash flow over the next three years and a significant reduction in capital development costs;
2. The flexibility to consider debt retirement and address balance sheet leverage in 2019;
3. Lower construction risks;
4. Lower financing risks, as mining and heap leaching will not require external funding;
5. The potential for higher heap leach recoveries and the ability to extend heap leach mine life by conducting further metallurgical tests on deeper material in the pit under a longer leach cycle for both the three year guidance and beyond.

Mining is expected to recommence by the end of the first quarter. The three year guidance is based on mining and stacking an initial 22 million tonnes of ore grading over 1.1 grams per tonne gold during the next three years, as well as continuing to leach the material currently on the pad.

While the mill project has been suspended, the project remains viable in the short-term. The viability of the mill project will continue to be assessed in light of the results from ongoing heap leach metallurgical testwork on deeper material and in view of other investment opportunities within the portfolio.

Production and Financial Guidance
Full year gold production of 390,000-420,000 ounces in 2019 (versus 349,147 ounces in 2018) is expected from Kisladag, Lamaque, Efemcukuru, and Olympias, with higher consolidated production expected in the second half of the year. The Company expects average cash operating costs to decline from $621 per ounce of gold sold in 2018, to $550-600 per ounce of gold sold in 2019. The Company will focus on maximizing free cash flow, including optimizing and improving unit costs and production at all assets and decreasing global G&A expenses.

As mining and heap leaching at Kisladag ramps up in 2019, consolidated gold production is expected to increase to 520,000-550,000 ounces of gold in 2020. Production is expected to decrease to 350,000-380,000 ounces of gold in 2021. Guidance at Kisladag will be updated later in 2019 based on results of testwork being completed on deeper material and prevailing economics around both heap leaching and the mill project.

2019-2021 Gold Production and Consolidated Cost Guidance Production (oz) 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E Kisladag 172,009145,000 - 165,000 240,000 - 260,00075,000 - 95,000 Lamaque 35,3501100,000 - 110,0002125,000 - 135,000125,000 - 135,000 Efemcukuru 95,038 90,000 - 100,000 90,000 - 100,000 90,000 - 100,000 Olympias 46,750 50,000 - 55,000 55,000 - 65,000 55,000 - 65,000 Total 349,147390,000 - 420,000 520,000 - 550,000350,000 - 380,000 Consolidated Costs ($/oz sold) 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E Cash Operating Cost - C1 ($/oz sold) 621 550 - 600 500 - 600 600 - 700 Total Operating Cost - C2 ($/oz sold)646 600 - 650 550 - 650 650 - 750 AISC ($/oz sold) 990 900 - 1,000 800 - 900 900 - 1,000
1 Pre-commercial production.
2 Includes ~10,000 ounces of pre-commercial production.

2019 Cost and Capital Expenditure Guidance 2018A2019E 2018A2019E Kisladag Corporate ($ millions) Cash Operating Cost - C1 ($/oz sold) 662 570 - 620 General and Administrative 47 302 Total Operating Cost - C2 ($/oz sold)683 610 - 660 Exploration3 28 25 - 30 Non-cash Inventory Costs ($/oz sold) 308 n/a Sustaining Capex ($ millions) 18 10 - 15 Growth Capital ($ millions) Kisladag 20 0 Lamaque Olympias 24 10 - 15 Cash Operating Cost - C1 ($/oz sold) n/a 550 - 6001 Lamaque4 142 30 - 35 Total Operating Cost - C2 ($/oz sold)n/a 580 - 6301 Other Project Spending ($ millions) Sustaining Capex ($ millions) n/a 35 - 45 Skouries 24 5 - 10 Stratoni 5 5 - 10 Efemcukuru Tocantinzinho 6 3 - 5 Cash Operating Cost - C1 ($/oz sold) 511 550 - 600 Certej 6 3 - 5 Total Operating Cost - C2 ($/oz sold)540 600 - 650 Sustaining Capex ($ millions) 24 15 - 20 Olympias Cash Operating Cost - C1 ($/oz sold) 730 550 - 650 Total Operating Cost - C2 ($/oz sold)759 600 - 700 Sustaining Capital ($ millions) 12 20 - 25
1 Excludes 10,000 ounces of pre-commercial production.
2 Re-allocation of the Company's general and administrative costs to better align with industry peer group practices, with the portion directly supporting operations to be reported, going forward, as cash operating costs.
3 33% expensed and 67% capitalized.
4 Includes development costs and capitalized operating costs less proceeds from pre-commercial sales. 2019 Commodity and Currency Price Assumptions Gold ($/oz) $1,275 Silver ($/oz) $ 17 Lead ($/mt) $ 2,250 Zinc ($/mt) $ 2,500 C$/US$ 1.35:1 EURO$/US$ 1:1.20 US$/TRY 1:5.75
2019 Operational Outlook


TURKEY
Kisladag
For 2019, the Company is forecasting production of 145,000-165,000 ounces of gold including approximately 70,000 ounces derived from ore previously placed on the leach pad. Approximately 9 million tonnes of new ore at an average grade of 1.1 grams per tonne is planned to be placed on the pad in 2019. Cash costs are estimated to be $570-620 per ounce of gold sold. Ore placed on the pad in 2019 is expected to contribute to production commencing in the second half of 2019 and into 2020.

Sustaining capital expenditures for 2019 are forecast to be approximately $10-15 million, spent primarily on capitalized waste stripping, equipment overhauls, some refurbishment work on the primary crusher and various small capital projects.

Efemcukuru
Efemcukuru remains a steady performer for the seventh consecutive year. In 2019, Efemcukuru is expected to mine and process over 510,000 tonnes of ore at an average grade of 7.0 grams per tonne gold, producing 90,000-100,000 ounces of gold at operating costs of $550-600 per ounce of gold sold.
Sustaining capital expenditures for 2019 are forecast to be approximately $15-20 million, spent primarily on capitalized underground mine development, equipment purchase and rebuilds, and various small capital projects including in-stream analysis, water management upgrades and a dry-stack tailings dam expansion.


CANADA
Lamaque

Eldorado acquired the Lamaque project in July 2017. In the 18 months following the acquisition, Eldorado filed a prefeasibility study (PFS) (see March 21, 2018 release ), drilled over 150,000 meters, completed 14,000 meters of underground development and largely completed refurbishment of the existing Sigma Mill, which began commissioning in November 2018. A total of 42,411 ounces were produced from a series of toll milling campaigns in 2017/2018, and in December 2018 the first gold was poured from ore processed in the Sigma Mill. In 2019, Lamaque is expected to declare commercial production during the first quarter and is planning to mine and process over 500,000 tonnes of ore at an average grade of 7.0 grams per tonne gold. Production is expected to be 100,000-110,000 ounces of gold (including pre-commercial production), at cash operating costs of $550-600 per ounce of gold sold.

Excluding proceeds from gold sales, total 2018/2019 capital spending is forecast to come in roughly 10 - 15% over the PFS estimate. The increase relates primarily to the purchase of certain pieces of mobile equipment as opposed to leasing, additional costs associated with underground development, further work on the existing tailings dam to increase storage capacity, offset by the deferral of construction of the Sigma paste plant.

Total capital expenditures for 2019 (excluding proceeds from pre-commercial gold sales) are forecast to be below the PFS estimate at approximately $80-90 million, including $35-45 million of sustaining capital.

37,000 metres of exploration drilling are planned to further expand resources in the lower part of the Triangle Deposit, focusing on the 500 metre vertical interval between the C5 and C9 zones, and to test additional targets in the project area. Resource conversion drilling planned from underground platforms (31,200 metres) will target Inferred Resources in the lower part of the C4 Zone and the C5 Zone. The Company expects to further evaluate and optimize the mine plan as we progress resource conversion, particularly in the C5 ore body.

The recent exploration success at Lamaque has provided the opportunity to review options for increasing throughput at the Sigma Mill. The mill has a refurbished nameplate capacity of 2,200 tonnes per day and the potential to expand to its former capacity of 5,000 tonnes per day with a purchase and installation of a SAG mill. Based on planned drilling and the potential conversion of Inferred Resources in C4, C5 and C6, the Company expects to explore options to increase mill feed.


GREECE
Olympias
In 2019, Olympias is expected to mine and process 430,000 tonnes of ore at an average grade of 7.8 grams per tonne of gold, 92 grams per tonne of silver, 3% lead and 4% zinc. Production is expected to be 50,000-55,000 ounces of gold, 850,000-900,000 ounces of silver, 8,750-9,250 tonnes of lead and 12,000-12,500 tonnes of zinc. Cash operating costs net of by-products are expected to be $550-650 per ounce of gold sold. Global market conditions for gold pyrite concentrate softened in late 2018, resulting in the Company budgeting lower payabilities for material sold in 2019.

Sustaining capital expenditures are expected to be $20-25 million on underground capitalized development, an infill diamond drill program, raise bore installations, mobile machinery, equipment rebuilds and process plant upgrades.

Development capital expenditures are expected to be $10-15 million, including a pump station installation underground along with various infrastructure upgrades associated with completing Phase II as well as ongoing engineering associated with Phase III.

Going forward, the Company expects the variability in ore blending to stabilize at Olympias. The paste backfill plant has been operating efficiently and is allowing for consistent backfilling of mined voids. Mining performance is expected to improve as a result of an enhanced ore deposit model based on infill drilling completed in 2018. Cost reduction initiatives in both the mining operations and the process plant are ongoing with high-cost consumables and operational inefficiencies being initially targeted.

As part of the Company's 2018 financial year-end, the valuation assumptions for Olympias are under review and there is a likelihood that an impairment charge will be recorded.

Skouries
Ongoing care and maintenance costs are estimated to be $5-10 million per year for 2019, including $2-4 million of direct site costs and its portion of country overhead costs.

Stratoni
For 2019, Stratoni is expected to process 210,000 tonnes of ore at grades of 6% lead, 9% zinc and 165 grams per tonne silver. Sustaining capital expenditures at Stratoni are expected to be $5-10 million including mine mobile equipment purchases and overhauls, mine facility upgrades and upgrades to some of the process facilities.

Through additional investment in the exploration program at Stratoni for 2019, the Company expects to continue to extend mine life. An additional 10,000 metres of resource expansion drilling is planned for the year.

ROMANIA
The Company expects to spend approximately $3-5 million at Certej during 2019 with the focus on continuing to optimize engineering along with modest site enabling works for the main electric power and water lines to the site. An economic assessment for the nearby Bolcana project is underway, and will determine next steps for advancing the project.

In January 2019, the Company received notice that the Urban Zonal Permit (PUZ), originally issued in 2010 for the Certej project in Romania, was suspended. The Company will appeal after the reasoning behind the ruling has been received, which can take up to a month. This suspension is not expected to have a significant impact on development at Certej.

BRAZIL
Work is underway to update the 43-101 compliant PFS for the Tocantinzinho project. The PFS is expected to be completed in the first half of 2019.

Development capital spending in 2019 is expected to be $3-5 million.

Conference Call to Discuss Path Forward
Senior management will host a conference call to review the information contained in this release on Thursday, January 31st, 2019 at 7:00 AM PT (10:00 AM ET). The call and associated slides will be webcast and can be accessed at Eldorado Gold's website: www.eldoradogold.com and via http://services.choruscall.ca/links/...d20190131.html

Conference Call Details Replay (available until February 21 st , 2019) Date: Thursday, January 31, 2019Vancouver: 1-604-638-9010 Time: 7:00 am PT (10:00 am ET) Toll Free: 1-800-319-6413 Dial in: 1-604-638-5340 Pass code: 2931 Toll free:1-800-319-4610

About Eldorado Gold
Eldorado is a gold and base metals producer with mining, development and exploration operations in Turkey, Canada, Greece, Romania, Serbia, and Brazil. The Company has a highly skilled and dedicated workforce, safe and responsible operations, a portfolio of high-quality assets, and long-term partnerships with local communities. Eldorado's common shares trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: ELD) and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: EGO).
We seek Safe Harbor.

2019 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

https://news.goldcore.com/ie/gold-bl..._hsmi=69472539

Gold Breaks Out of Range After Dovish Fed – Further 1% Gain to $1,321/oz

31, January

– Gold breaks out of range to highest in 8 months after dovish Fed
– Fed keeps benchmark interest rates unchanged (range between 2.25 percent and 2.5 percent), will be ‘patient’ on future hikes and “flexible” on its balance sheet as indebted and vulnerable US economy slows
– Fed decision and statement are very gold positive and strongly suggest that rather than tightening the Fed may be forced to ease monetary policy; further QE is likely in the coming months
– Gold is up 3.4% in January and is set for 4th monthly gain; silver gains 3.8% in January
– Meanwhile White House warns nations not to buy Venezuelan gold as reports of Russian plane landing in Caracas to collect gold

Gold in USD (1 Year) – GoldCore.com


Source: Bloomberg, US Global Investors

News and Commentary
Gold marks highest finish since mid-May, extends gains after Fed decision (MarketWatch.com)
Fed leaves rates steady, says will be ‘patient’ on future hikes (Reuters.com)
Pushing for Maduro to go, White House says don’t trade Venezuelan gold (Reuters.com)
Gold refiners Valcambi and Asahi make separate bids for bankrupt U.S. rival (Reuters.com)
Gold settles higher, extends gains in electronic trade after Fed statement (NavyTimes.com)
https://news.goldcore.com/ie/wp-cont...019.png?x78236
Source: US Global Investors via GoldSeek
Gold SWOT Analysis: Gold Traders Bullish for 11th Straight Week (GoldSeek.com)
LBMA: 2019 Precious Metals Forecast Survey (GoldSeek.com)
Refusal to hand over Venezuelan gold may mean end of Britain as gold center (RT.com)
China, Russia Preparing For “Blackout Warfare” With “Super-EMP” Bombs (ZeroHedge.com)
Is war between China and the US inevitable? | Graham Allison (Youtube.com)
Listen on iTunes, Blubrry & SoundCloud & watch on YouTube above
https://news.goldcore.com/ie/wp-cont...A-1.jpg?x78236
Gold Prices (LBMA PM)
30 Jan: USD 1,312.95, GBP 1002.04 & EUR 1,148.44 per ounce
29 Jan: USD 1,308.35, GBP 994.48 & EUR 1,143.24 per ounce
28 Jan: USD 1,301.00, GBP 987.98 & EUR 1,139.81 per ounce
25 Jan: USD 1,282.95, GBP 981.33 & EUR 1,132.08 per ounce
24 Jan: USD 1,279.75, GBP 981.70 & EUR 1,128.36 per ounce
23 Jan: USD 1,284.90, GBP 990.14 & EUR 1,131.74 per ounce
22 Jan: USD 1,284.75, GBP 994.14 & EUR 1,130.58 per ounce
Silver Prices (LBMA)
30 Jan: USD 15.91, GBP 12.15 & EUR 13.92 per ounce
29 Jan: USD 15.85, GBP 12.05 & EUR 13.87 per ounce
28 Jan: USD 15.68, GBP 11.93 & EUR 13.75 per ounce
25 Jan: USD 15.37, GBP 11.74 & EUR 13.55 per ounce
24 Jan: USD 15.30, GBP 11.75 & EUR 13.48 per ounce
23 Jan: USD 15.38, GBP 11.80 & EUR 13.54 per ounce
22 Jan: USD 15.26, GBP 11.84 & EUR 13.44 per ounce
Recent Market Updates
– U.S.-China War May Be “Just A Shot Away”
– Buy Bitcoin or Gold? Bitcoin Buyers Investing In Gold In 2019
– Gold Consolidates Above $1,300 After 1.2% Gain Last Week
– Gold Bullion Will Protect From Politicians, Brexit and Increasing Market Volatility In 2019
– Brexit – The Pin That Bursts London Property Bubble
– Davos: David Attenborough Warns We Are Damaging The World ‘Beyond Repair’
– Gold May Return 25% In 2019 Given Brexit, Trump and Other Risks – IG TV Interview GoldCore
– Brexit, EU, Germany, China and Yellow Vests In 2019 – Something Wicked This Way Comes
– Three Reasons Gold May Embark On An Extended Rally
– Political Turmoil in UK & US Sees Gold Hit 2 Week High
– Gold Holds Steady Over €1,100/oz – Increased Possibility Of A Disorderly Brexit
– Turbulence and Brexit Make Safer Options Like Gold and Cash Essential
– Where Will The “Pending” Financial Crisis Originate?
https://news.goldcore.com/ie/wp-cont...B-1.jpg?x78236
https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/4...29&d=blank&r=g
Mark O'Byrne
Executive Director

https://seekingalpha.com/article/423...oadblock=false

Summary
Dalio made the remarks in a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos on Tuesday where he reiterated that a limited monetary policy toolbox, rising populist pressures and other issues, including rising global trade tensions, are similar to the backdrop present in the latter part of the Great Depression in the late 1930s.


However, while the markets are celebrating the very clear confirmation that the "Fed Put" is alive and well, it should be remembered these "emergency measures" are coming at a time when we are told the economy is booming.


As Dalio noted, one of the biggest issues facing global Central Banks is the ongoing effectiveness of "Quantitative Easing" programs.
"What scares me the most longer term is that we have limitations to monetary policy - which is our most valuable tool - at the same time we have greater political and social antagonism." - Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates


Dalio made the remarks in a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos on Tuesday where he reiterated that a limited monetary policy toolbox, rising populist pressures and other issues, including rising global trade tensions, are similar to the backdrop present in the latter part of the Great Depression in the late 1930s.

Before you dismiss Dalio's view Bridgewater's Pure Alpha Strategy Fund posted a gain of 14.6% in 2018, while the average hedge fund dropped 6.7% in 2018 and the S&P 500 lost 4.4%.


The comments come at a time when a brief market correction has turned monetary and fiscal policy concerns on a dime. As noted by Michael Lebowitz yesterday afternoon at RIA PRO

"In our opinion, the Fed's new warm and cuddly tone is all about supporting the stock market. The market fell nearly 20% from record highs in the fourth quarter and fear set in. There is no doubt President Trump's tweets along with strong advisement from the shareholders of the Fed, the large banks, certainly played an influential role in persuading Powell to pivot.


Speaking on CNBC shortly after the Powell press conference, James Grant stated the current situation well.

"Jerome Powell is a prisoner of the institutions and the history that he has inherited. Among this inheritance is a $4 trillion balance sheet under which the Fed has $39 billion of capital representing 100-to-1 leverage. That's a symptom of the overstretched state of our debts and the dollar as an institution."
As Mike correctly notes, all it took for Jerome Powell to completely abandon any facsimile of "independence" was a rough December, pressure from Wall Street's member banks, and a disgruntled White House to completely flip their thinking.


In other words, the Federal Reserve is now the "market's bitch."

However, while the markets are celebrating the very clear confirmation that the "Fed Put" is alive and well, it should be remembered these "emergency measures" are coming at a time when we are told the economy is booming.

"We're the hottest economy in the world. Trillions of dollars are flowing here and building new plants and equipment. Almost every other data point suggests, that the economy is very strong. We will beat 3% economic growth in the fourth quarter when the Commerce Department reopens.

We are seeing very strong chain sales. We don't get the retail sales report right now and we see very strong manufacturing production. And in particular, this is my favorite with our corporate tax cuts and deregulation, we're seeing a seven-month run-up of the production of business equipment, which is, you know, one way of saying business investment, which is another way of saying the kind of competitive business boom we expected to happen is happening." - Larry Kudlow, Jan 24, 2019.


Of course, the reality is that while he is certainly "spinning the yarn" for the media, the Fed is likely more concerned about "reality" which, as the data through the end of December shows, the U.S. economy is beginning to slow.
"As shown, over the last six months, the decline in the LEI has actually been sharper than originally anticipated. Importantly, there is a strong historical correlation between the 6-month rate of change in the LEI and the EOCI index. As shown, the downturn in the LEI predicted the current economic weakness and suggests the data is likely to continue to weaken in the months ahead."

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uplo...519_thumb1.png

Limited Monetary Tool Box
As Dalio noted, one of the biggest issues facing global Central Banks is the ongoing effectiveness of "Quantitative Easing" programs. As previously discussed:
"Of course, after a decade of Central Bank interventions, it has become a commonly held belief the Fed will quickly jump in to forestall a market decline at every turn. While such may have indeed been the case previously, the problem for the Fed is their ability to 'bail out' markets in the event of a 'credit-related' crisis."
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uplo...518_thumb1.png

"In 2008, when the Fed launched into their "accommodative policy" emergency strategy to bail out the financial markets, the Fed's balance sheet was only about $915 Billion. The Fed Funds rate was at 4.2%.

If the market fell into a recession tomorrow, the Fed would be starting with roughly a $4 Trillion dollar balance sheet with interest rates 2% lower than they were in 2009. In other words, the ability of the Fed to 'bail out' the markets today, is much more limited than it was in 2008."

But it isn't just the issue of the Fed's limited toolbox, but the combination of other issues, outside of those noted by Dalio.
The nonprofit National Institute on Retirement Security released a study in March stating that nearly 40 million working-age households (about 45 percent of the U.S. total) have no retirement savings at all. And those that do have retirement savings don't have enough. As I discussed recently, the Federal Reserve's 2016 Survey of consumer finances found that the mean holdings for the bottom 80% of families with holdings was only $199,750.
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uplo...rth-012519.png


Such levels of financial "savings" are hardly sufficient to support individuals through retirement. This is particularly the case as life expectancy has grown, and healthcare costs skyrocket in the latter stages of life due historically high levels of obesity and poor physical health. The lack of financial stability will ultimately shift almost entirely onto the already grossly underfunded welfare system.

However, that is for those with financial assets heading into retirement. After two major bear markets since the turn of the century, weak employment and wage growth, and an inability to expand debt levels, the majority of American families are financially barren. Here are some recent statistics:

1. 78 million Americans are participating in the "gig economy" because full-time jobs just don't pay enough to make ends meet these days.
2. In 2011, the average home price was 3.56 times the average yearly salary in the United States. But by the time 2017 was finished, the average home price was 4.73 times the average yearly salary in the United States.
3. In 1980, the average American worker's debt was 1.96 times larger than his or her monthly salary. Today, that number has ballooned to 5.00.
4. In the United States today, 66 percent of all jobs pay less than 20 dollars an hour.
5. 102 million working age Americans do not have a job right now. That number is higher than it was at any point during the last recession.
6. Earnings for low-skill jobs have stayed very flat for the last 40 years.
7. Americans have been spending more money than they make for 28 months in a row.
8. In the United States today, the average young adult with student loan debt has a negative net worth.
9. At this point, the average American household is nearly $140,000 in debt.
10. Poverty rates in U.S. suburbs "have increased by 50 percent since 1990".
11. Almost 51 million U.S. households "can't afford basics like rent and food".
12. The bottom 40 percent of all U.S. households bring home just 11.4 percent of all income.
13. According to the Federal Reserve, 4 out of 10 Americans do not have enough money to cover an unexpected $400 expense without borrowing the money or selling something they own.
14. 22 percent of all Americans cannot pay all of their bills in a typical month.
15. Today, U.S. households are collectively 13.15 trillion dollars in debt. That is a new all-time record.

Here is the problem with all of this.
Despite Central Bank's best efforts globally to stoke economic growth by pushing asset prices higher, the effect is nearly entirely mitigated when only a very small percentage of the population actually benefit from rising asset prices. The problem for the Federal Reserve is in an economy that is roughly 70% based on consumption, when the vast majority of American's are living paycheck-to-paycheck, the aggregate end demand is not sufficient to push economic growth higher.


While monetary policies increased the wealth of those that already have wealth, the Fed has been misguided in believing that the "trickle down" effect would be enough to stimulate the entire economy. It hasn't. The sad reality is that these policies have only acted as a transfer of wealth from the middle class to the wealthy and created one of the largest "wealth gaps" in human history.

The real problem for the economy, wage growth and the future of the economy is clearly seen in the employment-to-population ratio of 16 to 54-year-olds. This is the group that SHOULD be working and saving for their retirement years.
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uplo...519_thumb1.png


The current economic expansion is already set to become the longest post-WWII expansion on record. Of course, that expansion was supported by repeated artificial interventions rather than stable organic economic growth. As noted, while the financial markets have soared higher in recent years, it has bypassed a large portion of Americans NOT because they were afraid to invest, but because they have NO CAPITAL to invest with.

To Dalio's point, the real crisis will come during the next economic recession.
While the decline in asset prices, which are normally associated with recessions, will have the majority of its impact at the upper end of the income scale, it will be the job losses through the economy that will further damage an already ill-equipped population in their prime saving and retirement years.
Furthermore, the already grossly underfunded pension system will implode.


An April 2016 Moody's analysis pegged the total 75-year unfunded liability for all state and local pension plans at $3.5 trillion. That's the amount not covered by current fund assets, future expected contributions, and investment returns at assumed rates ranging from 3.7% to 4.1%. Another calculation from the American Enterprise Institute comes up with $5.2 trillion, presuming that long-term bond yields average 2.6%.
The massive amount of corporate debt, when it begins to default, will trigger further strains on the financial and credit systems of the economy.
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uplo...518_thumb1.png


Dalio's View Is Likely Understated.
The real crisis comes when there is a "run on pensions." With a large number of pensioners already eligible for their pension, the next decline in the markets will likely spur the "fear" that benefits will be lost entirely. The combined run on the system, which is grossly underfunded, at a time when asset prices are dropping will cause a debacle of mass proportions. It will require a massive government bailout to resolve it.


But it doesn't end there. Consumers are once again heavily leveraged with sub-prime auto loans, mortgages, and student debt. When the recession hits, the reduction in employment will further damage what remains of personal savings and consumption ability. The downturn will increase the strain on an already burdened government welfare system as an insufficient number of individuals paying into the scheme is being absorbed by a swelling pool of aging baby-boomers now forced to draw on it. Yes, more Government funding will be required to solve that problem as well.


As debts and deficits swell in the coming years, the negative impact to economic growth will continue. At some point, there will be a realization of the real crisis. It isn't a crash in the financial markets that is the real problem, but the ongoing structural shift in the economy that is depressing the living standards of the average American family. There has indeed been a redistribution of wealth in America since the turn of the century. Unfortunately, it has been in the wrong direction as the U.S. has created its own class of royalty and serfdom.

The issue for future politicians won't be the "breadlines" of the 30s, but rather the number of individuals collecting benefit checks and the dilemma of how to pay for it all.

The good news, if you want to call it that, is that the next "crisis," will be the "great reset" which will also make it the "last crisis."

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

https://finviz.com/news.ashx?v=2

https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index2776.htm

January 31, 2019
Trump Counterattack Decapitates One Of Most Powerful Democrat Party Leaders In America While Muller Farce Nears End


By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers


A bombshell new Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) report circulating in the Kremlin today states that the long anticipated counterattack against “Deep State” forces by President Donald Trump has begun with the takedown of John “Johnny Doc” Dougherty, who is one of the most powerful Democratic Party leaders in America in total control of the pivotal swing election State of Pennsylvania—but whom yesterday was slammed, along with 7 of his co-conspirators, with a massive 116 criminal count 153 page indictment filed yesterday against them by feared First Assistant US. Attorney Jennifer Williams, who served as the Chief of the National Security and Cybercrime Unit, and continues to serve as the Office’s National Security Cyber Specialist and its Crisis Management Coordinator—with this Democrat Party leadership decapitation to be particularly noted as it comes within days of acting-US Attorney General Matthew Whitaker signaling that the farce Trump-Russia collusion investigation being conducted by Special Counsel Robert Muller is nearing its end. [Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/doct1.jpg

Feared and powerful First Assistant US Attorney Jennifer Williams (above) announces takedown of top Democrat Party leader John “Johnny Doc” Dougherty on 30 January 2019

According to this report, virtually unknown to the American people is that the single most consequential event occurring in the aftermath of President Trump’s shocking 2016 election victory over Hillary Clinton was the unannounced and unscheduled visit made to Trump Tower the day after this election by National Security Agency Director Admiral Mike Rogers—whom President Obama was pressured to fire for doing so, but couldn’t do because of NSA Director Admiral Rogers immense and secretive powers.


As the SVR is a vital part of Russia's security system aimed at protecting the individual, society and the state from external threats by using the means and resources stipulated in Federal Law, this report notes, the monitoring of the activities and movements of US intelligence officials is a legally protected function—and as it regarded NSA Director Admiral Rogers, shows his electronic spying agency having had a major role in the 2009 case designated United States v. Colleen LaRose a/k/a “Jihad Jane”—and whom in prosecuting saw NSA Director Admiral Rogers working closely with the US Department of Justice Chief of the National Security and Cybercrime Unit Jennifer Williams who was the lead US Attorney prosecuting this case.


In April-2018, this report continues, SVR analysts recorded US Attorney Jennifer Williams abruptly leaving Washington D.C. and being stationed at The United States Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania where President Trump had appointed her as First Assistant Attorney General—a seemingly not surprising move as Williams had been the law clerk to the Honorable Anthony J. Scirica, United States Circuit Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, and to the Honorable Anita B. Brody, United States District Judge of the Eastern District of Pennsylvania—but whose true reason for this sudden move became more obscure when upon her arrival she joined a highly secretive working group headed by Senior Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit Maryanne Barry—one of the most powerful US Federal Judges in America, who also happens to be the older sister of President Trump.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/doct2.jpg

Senior Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit Maryanne Barry (above) heads secretive working group to protect her brother President Donald Trump

At the time President Trump sent First Assistant US Attorney Jennifer Williams to join the secretive working group headed by his sister Judge Maryanne Barry, this report details, the Democrat Party was avenging its Pennsylvania loss to Trump in the 2016 election that allowed his stunning victory over Hillary Clinton—and whose machinations for doing so saw them packing the Pennsylvania Supreme Court with Democrat Party operatives, who than redrew all of their State’s election boundaries to throw Republican Party lawmakers out of power—and that was masterminded by the powerful union leader John “Johnny Doc” Dougherty, who heads “the single-most effective political organization” in the key 2020 presidential battleground State of Pennsylvania.


With John “Johnny Doc” Dougherty heading the union that is the single biggest independent source of Democrat Party campaign funding in Pennsylvania, this report further notes, his indictment yesterday by First Assistant US Attorney Jennifer Williams now sees these Democrats recoiling in fear as both political and labor organizations in this State have now been all upended—but whose greater fears should be in their noting that President Trump has just attacked them with a US Attorney who’s an expert in national security and terrorism laws, not political corruption.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/doct3.png

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/doct4.jpg

Most astonishing to note about President Trump’s takedown of powerful Democrat Party leader John “Johnny Doc” Dougherty yesterday, this report concludes, are that many of the 116 criminal counts filed against him and his co-conspirators include their lying to US federal authorities, but that they’re able to answer to after they turn themselves in—that stands in sharp contrast to Special Counsel Robert Muller’s treatment of Trump associate Roger Stone who, just days ago, when after he was charged with 8 concocted criminal counts, lying included, experienced the American nightmare of “Jackboots In The Morning” when a platoon of heavily automatic weapons armed US federal police officers being directed by Mueller descended upon him with armored vehicles, planes and patrol boats—all of which was captured by CNN cameras whose so-called reporters were tipped off by Mueller that this arrest raid was taking place—but who kept hidden from the American people the footage showing these modern day storm troopers dragging Stone’s 72-year-old terrorified deaf wife from her home barefoot and still wearing her nightgown—thus leaving it no wonder why the powerful Republican Party US Senator Lindsey Graham is demanding an investigation into how distorted from reality US law enforcement has become these days.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/doct5.jpg

January 31, 2019 EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked back to its original source at WhatDoesItMean.Com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

Hi Bruce, enjoying the weather?? did you get my PM??

Yes , I did ... Look for all your answers on this thread. PM me your telephone number and I will call you on the weekend. Have a great warm day !!!

POST 5402 Answered There !!!

post 5402?? that was my post.

Sorry , my mistake it is 5482 !!!

 

1. Post 5,482
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Edit
5. Jan 30, 5:34pm (22 hr ago)

1. https://cdn-assets.faireconomy.media...ar392875_1.gif BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,590 Posts | Online Now

Thanks Benjaminis for you reply, should I call you Benjaminis or BWM??

My first name is Bruce

My English Jewish name is Benjamin.

You can call me your friend.

Would you mind answering more questions?? Here are they:-

 

1. When am I expecting 1.00 hr mentoring from you?? Having said that I work Mon-Fri, 8.00-4.30pm NY time.
   Could you plz adjust your time for me so I could learn.

Benjamin: We could spend about one hour after 7 P Eastern Standard Time.

 

1. Which Time Frame you follow??

Benjamin: I trade from 2:00 AM EST to 6:00 PM EST Monday to Friday.

1. Do you trade currencies also?? Because CAC, DAX FTSE or EQUITIES are other than currency.

Benjamin: Because you can now trade the CAC and DAX and FTSE on this platform as CFD's Contracts For Difference then we could also trade them

. My corporation manages money and I trade equities on the TSE and TSX Venture. I usually average a return of 250% yearly for my corporation and it"s shareholders.

1. You said NO indicators, then how would we know about VOLUME?? Or the TREND??

Benjamin: I only Trade with the Trend. I determine the TREND by the fundamentals not the technicals. I use the technicals to decide where is the best entry. As for exit my plan determines that.

1. Who is your BROKER in Live Account??

I deal with AVA Trade in Ireland and soon Friedberg in Toronto through AVA Trade.

 

1. Do you only follow PRICE ACTION??

Benjamin: The only PRICE ACTION that I follow is my MONEY FLOW as Assets move from the different classes such as Stocks and Bonds and Commodities.

Post any other questions that you might have.

Thank You...

 

1. In real trading world, DOES broker play against us(traders)??

Benjamin: Always !!!

1. What’s your success rate( you can ignore this question if you want )??

Benjamin: I win over 75% of all my Forex trades and my monthly return on investment is over 15% and 180 % yearly.

PROOF available upon request to accredited investors that I am friends with as I do not deal with the Public.

1. Do you trade everyday??

Benjamin: I trade from Sunday at 3:00 AM starting in Wellington New Zealand occasionally until Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time.

1. Do you believe that History Repeat in forex ?

Benjamin: The MONEY FLOW is different each day and YES in many ways History and Forex repeats through Recessions and Boom Times.

1. Thanking you in advance. Take care.
   loveandpeace

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ops+to+zero%29

And so it looks promising for a while. There was that scary flare up in 2016 when the patient regressed and the normalization had to be put on hold, but then a miracle drug came along called Tax Cut and suddenly it seemed as if the removal of drugs from the system could be accelerated.
So jubilant and optimistic were the Fed doctors that they promised further rounds of withdrawal and kept pointing to their dot plot of normalization.
Yet here we are, a mere 3 months later and the Fed doctors are at a loss again. Unable and unwilling to admit to the patient the true nature of the disease the Fed doctors once again decided to stop all withdrawal of the drugs, worse, they indicated they may have to administer new drugs to come. The patient begged for more drugs and the Fed doctors absolved themselves of their hippocratic oath and capitulated once again to the patient’s scream for another high, a scream only drowned out by the dying sigh of the Fed’s credibility, the initial casualty in this war on monetary drug dependency.
For it is true, the Fed doctors failed to wean off the patient:

But now Jay Powell has made it official and killed off the Fed’s credibility in the process.
It’s probably just as well. It’s been painful to watch as everybody knew the probability of survival was low. It was a slow death. And nobody wants to see suffering longer than needed and everybody knew it anyways.
As to the patient? Well, he’s back on the drip, smiling at the prospect of his final fix. The 10 year addiction never ended and the patient remains uncured. Yet the patient can’t get a new high without new drugs and so the current satisfaction at seeing the drip may turn into a great disappointment first before the new drugs finally arrive. See the Fed doctors have been withholding a vital piece of information from the patient: We can’t cure you, we can only get you hooked on drugs to make you feel better. In medical terms that’s called malpractice, which typically kills off the credibility of any medical professional. It shouldn’t be any different for a central bank. And it isn’t.
* * *

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...kiNwTkg5tPxKg/

Five Reasons
Please consider Five reasons Why Italy is Back in Recession - and How it Could Blow Up the Eurozone

1. Global Economic Slowdown: The world economy seems to be at a tipping point. After a long, slow recovery from the financial crisis growth was back on track a year ago, yet momentum has faded. Fears now abound. China has slowed. The US has peaked.
2. Confidence: The combination of political turmoil, weak international growth, worries over debts and the long-term travails of Italy’s banks has left the country’s businesses on edge. Investment remains is muted as companies hold off committing to any big financial decisions.
3. Debt: Italy’s government has debts of more than 130pc of GDP - a tottering pile that limits its spending power, threatens higher taxes on workers and businesses, and risks destabilizing financial markets. Countries do not rack up debts like this by accident: borrowing and spending is a tried and tested way to pep up growth. However, at this level, debt is now a constraint on the economy.
4. Banks: The banking crisis began a decade ago, but Italy’s lenders were never fully cleaned up.
5. Permanent Crisis: Italy’s eternally slow growth rate indicates there are very fundamental problems with the structure of its economy. Yet successive governments have also struggled to make any of the necessary reforms, despite constant urging from economists including those at the European Central Bank. The economy is heavily regulated, with access to many professions tightly limited and an inflexible jobs market.

Rating the Reasons
Numbers 5, 3, and 4 are at the center of the crisis in that order. Number 2 is a symptom of those three. Number 1 is simply a recent development that didn't help.
Number five above is the best reason. For decades Italy has been in a permanent crisis. It's court system, tax schemes, ease at starting a business, work rules are pathetic. Fraud is rampant, but it has to be for people to escape onerous regulation.
Missing Item: The Euro
The euro did not cause Italy's problem, but it did make the problem much worse. Italy never belonged in the Eurozone. To be more specific, the euro was a failed construct from the beginning.
Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Greece, etc, all have differing work ethics, levels of productivity, and regulation. The less the regulation, the better the economic chances.
The idea that there could be one interest rate set by the ECB that would foster growth among widely diverse economies was fatally flawed. We saw that with Greece, Spain, Portugal, and now Italy.

The negative balance at the ECB is a function of its bond buying, quantitative easing manipulation practices.
Too Big to Bail, Too Big to Jail
Italy owes creditors close to half a trillion euros. How's that supposed to work?
Italy is too big to bail, and too big to jail. It cannot be locked up like Greece and Cypress, so the ECB is itself caught in a trap of perpetually buying Italian government debt because few else want that debt.
Supposedly, all Eurozone debt is "risk free". If the market agreed, Greek and Italian bonds would trade at the same yield. They don't and won't.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

https://nftrh.com/2019/01/31/gold-in-global-currencies/

They say a real gold bull market sees gold rising in all major currencies. The basket of items in the USD bear fund UDN fits the bill in giving a global view of gold’s bull move.

Daily Au/UDN has forcefully broken through a resistance zone we’ve been watching in NFTRH.
https://i1.wp.com/nftrh.com/wp-conte...00%2C400&ssl=1

Weekly Au/UDN is onboard with the bull view as well.
https://i0.wp.com/nftrh.com/wp-conte...00%2C400&ssl=1

Here is a daily chart of gold vs. the usual currency suspects including the USD index, for what it’s worth. Not lookin’ too shabby, is it?
https://i1.wp.com/nftrh.com/wp-conte...00%2C900&ssl=1

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium (monthly at USD $33.50 or a 14% discounted yearly at USD $345.00) for an in-depth weekly market report, interim market updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas.

You can also keep up to date with actionable public content at NFTRH.com by using the email form on the right sidebar and get even more by joining our free eLetter. Follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS.

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http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article64078.html

Will 35th Recession Bring A Swift Return To Zero Percent Interest Rates?


Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

Jan 28, 2019 - 04:08 PM GMT
By: Dan_Amerman
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images...s/interest.gif


http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/diamond.gif

Many people view the seven years of zero percent interest rates experienced in the United States between 2008 and 2015 as being safely in the past, with normal times having returned.


As explored in this analysis, so long as the business cycle of expansions and recessions has not been repealed - then we are highly likely to see a swift return to a potentially protracted bout of zero percent interest rates with the next major downturn in the economy.


Indeed, even the staff of the Federal Reserve itself expects more frequent episodes of zero percent interest rates in the future, and for those episodes to be on a more protracted basis.

This just may change everything when it comes to the financial plans of retirement and other long term investors. Zero percent interest rates don't just eviscerate the ability of retirees to earn interest income, but they also fundamentally change stock, bond, housing and precious metals prices, moving them to places that are outside of the historical averages.

This analysis is part of a series of related analyses, an overview of the rest of the series is linked here.


A Change In The Cycles
As reviewed in the previous analysis in this series, which is linked here, the United States has experienced 34 cycles of expansion and recession since 1854. As explored in that analysis, the business cycle is an extremely reliable night and day cycle.

The sun has gone down 34 times, with those sunsets being the onsets of recessions. The sun has come up 34 times, with those sunrises being the beginnings of the expansions.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images...ionCyclesA.jpg


However, as can easily be seen - the left side of the graph is very different from the right side. There was a major change after the Great Depression and the end of World War Two: the recessions grew less frequent and less severe, and the expansions became longer.


What happened was not random, but has been the result of an ongoing series of Federal Reserve interventions, which have transformed the business cycle relative to what it was before the Great Depression and World War II.


The 100% Reliable Way In Which The Fed Responds To Recession

The business cycle has changed because the Fed uses modern monetary policy to actively intervene in the business cycle, with the attempt to shorten recessions and to extend the economic expansions. There's some different aspects to it but the core for how the Federal Reserve has been containing recessions in the modern era and how they change the cycle can be seen in the graph below.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images...onCyclesA4.jpg


The graph shows Fed Funds rates and recessions from 1977 to 2018, a period of a little over 40 years. There's a pattern that can be very easily seen: every single time that there is a recession, the Federal Reserve slashes interest rates.


The core of the policy is for the Federal Reserve to very rapidly force short term interest rates downwards in the attempt to jolt the economy out of recession. Now, the timing can be a little bit different because sometimes the Federal Reserve acts preemptively when they think a recession coming, but they turn out to be unable to prevent it. Sometimes they are a little bit late in the recognition that a recession has occurred - the starting dates of recessions are not known in real time, but are assigned afterwards when all the data is available for study.


The Federal Reserve often continues the cycle of reducing interest rates well after the official end of the recession, first because they are not sure the recession has ended yet, and then more importantly, because they are trying to make sure the economy has reliably and robustly moved into the next expansion, so that there is no backsliding into recession.


When we review each one of these cycles of recession and the modern monetary response of Federal Reserve - which is to slash interest rates - then we can see how this has worked in process over the last four or so decades.


For the recession of 1980, the decline started a little bit late as the Fed tried to overcome the persistent stagflation of the late 1970s, but Fed Funds rates were eventually forced down from a peak of about 17.5% (rounded monthly averages) to about 9%, which was a decline of about 8.5% in three months. Now that's a major reduction in interest rates!


When we look at the 1981 recession, there was an even bigger reduction, as the Fed dropped rates from the approximately 19% level - which they had raised them to in the attempt to break the back of inflation - down to about 8.5%, which was a decline of about 10.5%.

For the 1990 recession, the peak had reached about 9.8% before the Fed paused the increasing interest rate cycle then in process, because it appeared that the economy was in trouble. The trough after the end of the official recession was about 2.9%, so the total reduction in interest rates was just a little less than 7%.


When we look at the 2001 recession, rates had reached about 6.5% before the Fed paused. The Fed then forced rates down to just below 1% by the end of the cycle in the attempt to jolt the economy out of recession, so that was a reduction in interest rates of about 5.5%.


The Great Recession began at the end of 2007. Rates had reached about 5.25% the last time that the Fed had to pause a cycle of increasing interest rates.

Because rates started so low, not yet having recovered from the reduction needed to overcome the 2001 recession, the Fed had to slam interest rates down to about zero percent, so the reduction was about 5.25% (and that was not nearly enough by itself, as we will be covering in the next analysis in this series).



Over the last forty years and five recessions, the Federal Reserve has forced short-term interest rates down by an average of about 7.25% per recession.

This response to recession of rapidly decreasing interest rates has been 100% reliable in the modern era for a simple reason - that this is the policy. Slamming interest rates downwards is the very heart of what the Federal Reserve does when it recognizes a recession or the imminent danger of a recession. It does it every time, without exception.



The Coming Return To Zero Percent Interest Rates

In the last approximately 20 years the Fed has moved to a very different place than where they were for most of the post-World War II era. The last two recessions have been different, they have been worse than most, and they were each at least partially precipitated by asset bubble collapses. Having an asset bubble collapse which leads to major investment losses and reductions in household net worth that create persistent spending issues is not a normal feature of the typical business cycle recessions seen between the 1940s and the 1990s.


The tech stock asset bubble collapse precipitated the 2001 recession and because interest rates started from such a low point, the Fed had to knock rates all the way down to a 50 year low, as can be seen below.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images...RErbA8L123.jpg


The graph above shows Fed Funds rates that fall in the range experienced between 1975 and 2000 in green and blue, and interest rate outliers - Fed Funds rates that are entirely outside of that range - in gold. As can be seen by the red numeral 1, in response to the 2001 recession the Federal Reserve knocked interest rates far down into the outlier range.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images...RErbA4L123.jpg


When the Fed slammed Fed Funds rates down to a 50 year low, it also brought mortgage rates down into an outlier range, as can be seen by the red numeral 1 in the graph of 30 year mortgage rates above. Indeed, as explored in the analysis linked here, one of the primary reasons that the real estate bubble formed was the extraordinary low interest rates created by the Fed's response to the 2001 recession.


When that real estate bubble collapsed, it helped to precipitate the Great Recession. Unfortunately, Federal Funds rates started at an even lower level than they had been before 2001, and the Fed knocked interest rates down to zero percent in order to exit that recession, as can be seen below.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images...RErbA4L123.jpg


Now, let's take another look at our graph of recessions and Fed Funds rates, and compare the right side graph - which is where we are right now - to the rest of the graph. Look at how low interest rates are right now, before a potential recession hits, and how different this is from where rates were before any prior recession.


We're starting at a less than a 2.5% Fed Funds rate, and it's a little uncertain what the Fed will do between now and a possible recession in the next 1-2 years. There is now quite a bit of discussion that the Fed will indeed "pause" in 2019, with no further rate increases. If rates do go up - the chances currently look very high that they will not go up by more than 0.5% or so, perhaps 1% at the maximum. Anywhere within that range, from no increase up to a 1% increase, would mean going into the next recession with much lower starting interest rates than with any prior recession in the last four decades.


It is very difficult to make definitive statements with regard to the economic future, but if there is one statement that can be made with close to 100% confidence, it is that if there is another recession, then the Fed will quickly slam interest rates right back down to zero percent (or less).


Many investors view zero percent interest rates as a bizarre anomaly which never should have happened, but are now safely in the past. However, if we look at history, and we then look not just history but we look at the source of that history which is what Federal Reserve policy is, then given that the average reduction in interest rates over the previous 5 recessions is about 7.25%, with a minimum of about 5.25%, and given that we are likely to start with a Fed Funds rate in the 2.25% to 3% range, perhaps 3.5% at the outside - those Fed Funds rates are almost certainly going straight back to zero percent.


What Federal Reserve history and policy shows us is that so long as the cycle is not broken, so long as there is a 35th iteration of recession, so long as we have night following day yet again, then interest rates will immediately move right back to zero percent (if not lower).



This cycle has radical consequences for investment prices, as well as profits and losses. Indeed there's extraordinary information value there because if there is a 35th iteration of recession followed by 35th iteration of expansion, then we're going to see a series of some of the biggest investment price changes that we have seen since 2006, and these changes are likely to impact every investment category.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images...RErbA2L123.jpg


One example is housing prices as explored in the analysis linked here. When we had the golden outliers in terms of Fed Funds rate changes and mortgage rate changes, those in turn created the gold outliers above for housing price ranges - including those seen today, in the second "golden spike".

The real world investment side effects of the Fed's monetary policies has been to create an entirely different price range for housing, where almost every price has been a historical outlier, relative to the markets before the Fed's heavy-handed interventions. Rephrased, while "monetary policy" might sound hopelessly abstract, every house on every street in every neighborhood might have a value that is 20% to 40% different today than it would have been in the past (in inflation-adjusted terms), specifically because of extraordinary monetary policy interventions.


This then means that home prices are far more subject to rapid change with recessions and changes in monetary policy than they used to be. Volatility is up sharply: housing prices used to fluctuate in a band of about +10%/-10% relative to the inflation-adjusted mean, but now the volatility in housing prices is 4X to 5X as great.


So, just using the example of housing, if there is a 35th recession, and the Fed continues with the policies it has used every time since World War II, and Fed Funds rates do go right back down to zero percent - that is likely to again translate to outsized housing losses - and housing gains - in a way that can't be seen by studying the long term historical averages.


These same principles also hold true - with widely varying specifics - for bond prices, stock prices and precious metals prices. When the recession hits, all prices move, and when the Fed slams rates back down to zero percent in response - all prices move, and in a manner that is different than what we have seen in the past. This means that the common practice of expecting the investment statistics of the 20th century to endlessly repeat themselves could potentially lead to some dangerous mistakes.


The graphic below is something that I've been using in my analyses to help communicate the framework for what can happen to prices and returns in all categories, with each turn in the long established night and day historical cycles of recession and expansion, that are now being amplified by our modern heavy-handed Federal Reserve interventions.


The essence is that every time we have a change in the economic cycles (the columns), we also have potentially radical changes in each of the investment categories (the rows). Using a logical framework and an understanding of how the Fed's interventions have changed the markets, we can better identify where the risks are in each investment category, and where unusual opportunities may be available on a cyclical basis as well.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images...dBlackCweb.jpg


An explanatory analysis for the matrix is linked here.

While parts of this analysis may sound negative - and there are indeed some major issues to be concerned about - there will also be many opportunities in these exaggerated cycles. As covered in the previous analysis, over the last 164 years we have seen 34 iterations of the sun going down and nighttime, and 34 iterations of sunrises and the day times that have followed. In both cases there can be extraordinary opportunities from an investment perspective for people who are aware of what is happening.



There is another source when it comes to the likelihood of future rounds of zero percent interest rates. Consider this excerpt from the August 2018 minutes for the Federal Open Market Committee (there is a much more in-depth discussion in my 2019 Cycles Overview):
"...spells at the ELB could become more frequent and protracted than in the past, consistent with the staff’s analysis."


The ELB in this case is Fed-speak for the Effective Lower Boundary for interest rates, which is zero percent. When the Fed staff looks at the future, the current low levels of interest rates, and the ongoing iterations of the business cycle - it doesn't only see zero percent rates in the past. It also sees them in the future, on a more frequent basis than in the past, and possibly on a more protracted basis with each iteration as well.


This may sound radical - but it is the opposite. This is very center of the current conventional wisdom when it comes to monetary policy. If anyone understands the dilemma posed by the business cycle and the current very low level of interest rates, it is the Fed themselves, and they know exactly what is likely to happen when it comes to running up against the boundary in the event of recessions, over and over again.


When we carry through to the investment implications - the cycles will still be with us, but many of the other aspects of investment performance are likely to be transformed. The key is to understand what is coming right now - rather than waiting to be blindsided by it - and hopefully this analysis has been helpful for you in that regard.


*******************************


Read the 2019 Cycles Overview brochure.
Read the investment strategies for crisis and the containment of crisis DVD course brochure.
Read the Spring 2019 workshop brochure.
Daniel R. Amerman, CFA


Website: http://danielamerman.com/