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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #58,101
  • Jan 24, 2019 12:52pm Jan 24, 2019 12:52pm
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Remember not everything should be rescued - what if you are dead in waters against main trend versus just mistimed (where you are getting in at discount)/ what if you are in very deep pullback/ what if volatility against trend has increased could it be reversing/ what if trend has actually changed. Then Ro3k should be considered too. As for the numbers - play with them yourself to review the nos and what you can handle. Also for rescue I would advise you to do a search on the thread and read FTI posts on rescue for strategies and thoughts...
Hi Alex,
nice to see the yellow star near your nick I understand what you say.

First i define my terrain. Beyond its borders i surrender. Sometimes i may be fooled by volatility spikes but that's OK for me. I am always with my assumed main trend. Presently CRUDE OIL Weekly is in a downtrend and daily is in an uptrend. On the 15M shorter chart, i am batting for the uptrend.

Second, i bail out even after i get at discount price (which i may know only later). But after bailout, i immediately enter a new scout. This is just my way of ensuring I get atleast a part of the discount. As a result, i have a new scout which is at far discounted rate than the original (bailed out) one.

Third, CRUDE is supposed to be a mean reverting (ranging) instrument. Yes, sometimes, we have trending time, there i bail out if i am in wrong bus. If correct I ride with minimal exposure to make about 2% of my account size. I have got great success with this MO, which I have never experienced before.

Fourth, R03K i completely overlooked because i am not dealing with currency anymore. But I remember master said everything depends on USD, so i have to look at it. Thanks for pointing it out.

Hey can you please point me to some rescue scenario that master explains and which you mentioned above. I have read/reread this thread many times. But mine is a bird brain. Remember students sitting behind you in the last bench in the school

Respects !

PS: Please check my blotter if possible
  • #58,102
  • Jan 25, 2019 5:00am Jan 25, 2019 5:00am
Quoting pannet1
{quote} I have got great success with this MO, which I have never experienced before. Thanks for pointing it out. Hey can you please point me to some rescue scenario that master explains and which you mentioned above. I have read/reread this thread many times. But mine is a bird brain. Remember students sitting behind you in the last bench in the school Respects ! PS: Please check my blotter if possible
Hello Pannet,

If I may, in my opinion the generous FTI's sharing here should not be considered as a pattern, especially, on rescuing or salvaging. He gave precious advice deriving from his own unique and successful experience with banks. E.g., remember, when he started demoing Fx Spot, after swift doubling of 50K account, he adjusted a new account and made only 1.30 USD or even 0.30 USD profit daily per accepted risk. Importantly, and likewise it's being stressed by Phil and Alexandria, according to FTI, "rigidity of MM and of MO can lead for destructive mindset, that can in fact disorientate the trader to the risk of ruin". Trader must put himself in different and most dangerous scenarios and it is an individual (and long - requiring a lot of patience ) journey. And there is no a Rescue Sample by FTI within this thread (maybe in the scripts of his skype conversations with Leigsww). What I recall, it's a seemingly 50 -60 pips (deep in waters) rescue scenario turned to be a winning and strong attack (it was on a lower 5M TF, though higher TFs weren't depicted). Then, it's how you are feeling, reading the terrain, your swift, due and sufficient response in timely manner. But, FTI's thread and AoW is a key.
Still you can surely find illustration of winning battles and I should use opportunity and look at some journals benignantly presented by our friends - FTI followers. I believe that you already did or are doing so.

Trade safe and Best regards,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,103
  • Jan 25, 2019 1:54pm Jan 25, 2019 1:54pm
Hi all

Nobody is in here. this thread is good. We could learn something. Do you your guys which indicator is the best for forecasting the Trend?
  • #58,104
  • Jan 25, 2019 2:27pm Jan 25, 2019 2:27pm
Quoting OCtrader
Hi all Nobody is in here. this thread is good. We could learn something. Do you your guys which indicator is the best for forecasting the Trend?

Hi OCtrader

yes, there is only one and that is you/us, naked charts are the best to see the real action.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #58,105
  • Jan 25, 2019 2:31pm Jan 25, 2019 2:31pm
Quoting OCtrader
Hi all Nobody is in here. this thread is good. We could learn something. Do you your guys which indicator is the best for forecasting the Trend?
There is no something like "best indicator" my friend. Stay away from any "forecasting" if you want to live a long forex life.
Read this thread again and again, especially first 200 pages...
There you will find some very good answers...
  • #58,106
  • Jan 25, 2019 3:36pm Jan 25, 2019 3:36pm
Quoting OCtrader
Hi all Nobody is in here. this thread is good. We could learn something. Do you your guys which indicator is the best for forecasting the Trend?
read the thread even the first post for your answer

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #58,107
  • Jan 26, 2019 1:12am Jan 26, 2019 1:12am
Quoting 7thTorch
{quote} There is no something like "best indicator" my friend. Stay away from any "forecasting" if you want to live a long forex life. Read this thread again and again, especially first 200 pages... There you will find some very good answers...
Using past data to identify patterns is great approach, but methods are so sophisticated, that technical indicators publicly available is just funny stuff that creates impression that you trade using right tools
  • #58,108
  • Jan 27, 2019 2:39am Jan 27, 2019 2:39am
Hello Friends,

Someone has recently brought to my mind the Story of the Snake and Saw. Not a very nice view but one can find some similarity with Fx trading .
"A snake entered a Carpentry Shop, and as it crawled to the corner, it went through a saw and hurt itself a little bit. At that time he turned and bit the saw, and biting the saw, he hurt himself badly in the mouth.
Then, not understanding what was happening to him and thinking that saw was attacking him, he decided to roll around the saw as if wanting to suffocate him with his whole body, and shaking with all his strength. It was so, unfortunately, the snake ended up being killed by the saw."

https://aarifbillah.com/2018/08/02/s...e-and-the-saw/

And, having, salvaging a dog myself, I like this:

Inserted Video


Trade safe and Best regards,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,109
  • Jan 28, 2019 4:52am Jan 28, 2019 4:52am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Pannet, If I may, in my opinion the generous FTI's sharing here should not be considered as a pattern, especially, on rescuing or salvaging. He gave precious advice deriving from his own unique and successful experience with banks. E.g., remember, when he started demoing Fx Spot, after swift doubling of 50K account, he adjusted a new account and made only 1.30 USD or even 0.30 USD profit daily per accepted risk. Importantly, and likewise it's being stressed by Phil and Alexandria, according to FTI, "rigidity of MM and of MO can lead...
i was reading disciple Lusan's journal. this is very close to my mind. just stumbled across another disciple, priceaction's journal in which he had collected some of masters wisdom.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=484850

made a new entry in my journal .. invite your opinions and advise.
  • #58,110
  • Jan 28, 2019 9:50am Jan 28, 2019 9:50am
Quoting pannet1
{quote} i was reading disciple Lusan's journal. this is very close to my mind. just stumbled across another disciple, priceaction's journal in which he had collected some of masters wisdom. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=484850 made a new entry in my journal .. invite your opinions and advise.
Hello Pannet,

Thank you for inviting me to your Journal. I have been installing new accounts with different brokers since there some regulatory changes are occurring. A reliable broker suiting your MO/MM is an indispensable ingredient of trading.

Best regards,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,111
  • Jan 29, 2019 2:32am Jan 29, 2019 2:32am
I am at page 145 now. This material is gold. I meed to re-read this 2-3 times before going live. Fortunate to find FTI's thread.
  • #58,112
  • Jan 29, 2019 9:52pm Jan 29, 2019 9:52pm
very inspiring members in this forum. success always. Hopefully we have the same success at the Summit.
  • #58,113
  • Feb 4, 2019 10:01pm Feb 4, 2019 10:01pm
Is Oanda still the best broker in US?
  • #58,114
  • Feb 4, 2019 10:25pm Feb 4, 2019 10:25pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Is Oanda still the best broker in US?
hi,

just curious. don't you use spread comparison tools and other broker comparison tools.
i used to find my broker (for india)
  • #58,115
  • Feb 5, 2019 12:02am Feb 5, 2019 12:02am
Quoting OCtrader
Hi all Nobody is in here. this thread is good. We could learn something. Do you your guys which indicator is the best for forecasting the Trend?
No such thing as forecasting nobody can predict the market unless you have some insider information that you know will move the price in a certain direction. Better way to think about it is probabilities. For example if a fast moving average crosses above a slow moving average this could be signal that there is a high probability that the price will go up etc.
  • #58,116
  • Edited 1:28pm Feb 11, 2019 12:30pm | Edited 1:28pm
Quoting thomas101
{quote} For example if a fast moving average crosses above a slow moving average this could be signal that there is a high probability that the price will go up etc.
Hello Thomas,

You are right - it's all about probabilities. Let me add regarding your particular example: there is a sort of "highly likely" -
that it might have been a fast moving just to trigger early sellers SLs , news #fake# reaction to engage/ entrape early-hasty buyers, or it occurred in a Sellers area, Strong Resistance, Supply zone or just the only Big seller was waiting the price to come there and smash all the fast moving buyers (must be so many buyers to fill his/ her Short amount)... etc. How many probabilities that price won't obey/ follow that signal?

I quite agree that we should read the chart accurately (taking into account TA and Fundamentals) and follow the PA flow (did you mention that?). At least myself, I never trigger any trading order based on your example-signal alone. Although used to do so some 7 - 8 years ago.
I personally would prefer to follow this FTI thread and AoW, and (probably after underestimating of the fundamental stuff) read some books by John Murphy, Steve Nison, Robert Edwards, etc.


Trade safe, Best regards,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,117
  • Feb 12, 2019 8:23pm Feb 12, 2019 8:23pm
I've been checking Tech Analyses for a while, and the price never coincides with what the graphics say... What is the point of doing it then?
  • #58,118
  • Edited 12:44am Feb 13, 2019 12:34am | Edited 12:44am
Quoting arenysdemar
I've been checking Tech Analyses for a while, and the price never coincides with what the graphics say... What is the point of doing it then?
Hello Arenysdemar,

Very briefly - maybe because the graphics (charts) are depicting what the price has already done (in past - tic, minute ago, etc.), not otherwise. Almost each broker is drawing its own graph, especially on spikes, sudden moves - stop hunts. One may find even about 100 - 200 pips of difference in such occasions (I did notice it myself, e.g., along with the first Brexit down spikes). Later-on they were trying to make their graphs similar to a general picture and you won't see that difference on even Daily charts weeks aftermath. Then, different spreads, bid or ask price on the charts. E.g., 4.0 pips or 0.9 for Loonie. Or even no spread at all - just quotes - but quite a commission per amount traded with some banks. Or, I could have misunderstood your point.
Technical Analysis is One of the tools' pool that might enable a trader to read the chart as correctly as possible in order to follow the price. By the way, apart from your TA checking, did you read at least some 20 pages at the beginning of this thread? The ones equally important of the Pillars are the Market Knowledge and You - your skills, experience, how you read, dissect, understand and make trading decisions. May be a key to your question is lying there (for those who seek inquisitively and thoughtfully).

Best regards,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,119
  • Feb 15, 2019 3:19am Feb 15, 2019 3:19am
Dear Friends,

While being in the process of trading combined with reading the books indicated in one of my recent posts I have found an interesting text back of 1991 regarding our Scouts.
So, I have a pleasure to share it for your own judgement: "At times there will be "scouting parties" (this is my term and not a candlestick expression) sent by big traders, commercial accounts, or even locals to test the resolve of the opposing troops. For instance, there might be a push by the bulls to try to move prices above a resistance line.
In such a battle, we have to monitor the determination of the bears. If this bullish scouting party can set up camp in enemy territory (that is, close above resistance for a few days) then a beachhead is made. New, fresh attacking bull troops should join the scouting party. The market should move higher. As long as the beachhead is maintained (that is, the market should hold the old resistance area as new support), the bull troops will have control of the market."

Trade safe,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #58,120
  • Feb 17, 2019 10:59am Feb 17, 2019 10:59am
Hi All,

I just completed 200 pages of the thread. It took 2 months to do so. I am trying FTI approach in Demo account. Still long way to go. Once mindset, mo, mm are internalize i will start from page 201 to read more. I need to re-read those pages again.


CookieMonsta, How your long sword doing? any luck with FTI, i read few pages where in you asked and he is not reveling it. I will take at least 1 year to reach at that point in this thread, but i am not in hurry. LEt me polish short sword, build equity and then jump in further.

Happy trading to all of you.

Between, finished "Paper Money" and few AOW Chapters.

-Ant
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