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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #6,981
  • Jan 19, 2019 3:57am Jan 19, 2019 3:57am
Yes EU another textbook PA, DBD. BUYING THERE WOULD BE BUYING INTO STRONG SUPPLY.
Wait for the system to show you the trade!
  • #6,982
  • Jan 19, 2019 5:15pm Jan 19, 2019 5:15pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} A bit of learning I took from last week was that 3 day sideways choppy movement. Notice the the setup that was building with a little swing high (red X) causing breakout traders to buy straight into supply. Love setups like this but don't always catch them! Anyone see the same setup on USDCAD? {image}

C

What keeps you from taking the engulfing candles where I put the yellow arrows? Technically, the first two worked out quickly as they touched into the next demand level on the 1hr chart. The place where your arrow is marked was obviously the best move though. I guess the stops would all be the same though, it would just be a longer wait if you had taken any of the trades where I marked with the arrows...

Thats one of the things that will still trip me up a little, when zones are sloppy and stacked right on another with lots of candles/wicks. Do you wait for those to be taken out, since they're not fresh, or do you jump in? Or maybe you wait even longer, and look for that above supply zone (which wasn't hit) to be triggered. But then you miss the down move.

** After looking at those charts again, it would only matter if you were trading the 1 hour supply zones. The 4hr was only touched once, and that was when you noted the prior high/wick being taken out to bait people in. I know you trade lower timeframes sometimes though. So do you skip situations like I marked, or just have more trades and more volatility to manage?

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  • #6,983
  • Jan 20, 2019 1:54am Jan 20, 2019 1:54am
Quoting jack411
{quote}I know you trade lower timeframes sometimes though. So do you skip situations like I marked, or just have more trades and more volatility to manage? {image}
I was shorting around the candles you highlighted and took a few mini losses, scratched trades and BE's.

You never know if price wants to retest the zone and how many times it will tap it. Ideally it's better to stick the SL behind H4 zone. I was concerned we might go for the upper zone above and it would kill my RR.

I'm crap at sitting on the sidelines so my strategy to avoid getting dragged into a dogfight is having another pair to trade, which is where GU comes in handy.
  • #6,984
  • Jan 20, 2019 2:41am Jan 20, 2019 2:41am
Ha! Ok, that’s exactly how I would have played it and have played similar scenarios in the past. Including worrying a little about going for the upper zone and killing the r/r.
I do understand the setup you were showing though, and it’s a good one. Breakout traders get suckered into the long and end up running right into supply.


Quoting C-12
{quote} I was shorting around the candles you highlighted and took a few mini losses, scratched trades and BE's. You never know if price wants to retest the zone and how many times it will tap it. Ideally it's better to stick the SL behind H4 zone. I was concerned we might go for the upper zone above and it would kill my RR. I'm crap at sitting on the sidelines so my strategy to avoid getting dragged into a dogfight is having another pair to trade, which is where GU comes in handy.
  • #6,985
  • Jan 20, 2019 3:17am Jan 20, 2019 3:17am
Quoting jack411
Ha! Ok, that’s exactly how I would have played it and have played similar scenarios in the past. Including worrying a little about going for the upper zone and killing the r/r. I do understand the setup you were showing though, and it’s a good one. Breakout traders get suckered into the long and end up running right into supply. {quote}
Here's a handy little indicator I keep forgetting to put on the charts.

Forget all the pivot junk, I just use it for the previous session high and low lines.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Ken_HLO_SDX-TzPivots_v4.7.2.ex4   25 KB | 515 downloads
File Type: mq4 Ken_HLO_SDX-TzPivots_v4.7.2.mq4   44 KB | 602 downloads
  • #6,986
  • Jan 20, 2019 3:44am Jan 20, 2019 3:44am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Here's a handy little indicator I keep forgetting to put on the charts. Forget all the pivot junk, I just use it for the previous session high and low lines. {file} {file} {image}
C-12 gbpnzd pa entry 4H/15M 71 pip reversal correct entry examples?
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  • #6,987
  • Jan 22, 2019 12:03pm Jan 22, 2019 12:03pm
Good PA setup on GU.

took some losses on buys on EU but hopefully that will now get in line.
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  • #6,988
  • Jan 23, 2019 11:32am Jan 23, 2019 11:32am
Managed to stack some more longs on this one and one left on the table.
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  • #6,989
  • Jan 23, 2019 11:36am Jan 23, 2019 11:36am
EU was determined to frustrate but got in line with GU in the end.

Had some limit orders that didn't trigger on demand zone.
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  • #6,990
  • Jan 23, 2019 11:56am Jan 23, 2019 11:56am
Quoting C-12
Managed to stack some more longs on this one and one left on the table. {image}
that zone on GU from today was enought for you to add long there ? or there was other reasons ? thanks for answering
  • #6,991
  • Edited 12:30pm Jan 23, 2019 12:10pm | Edited 12:30pm
Quoting Giova86
{quote} that zone on GU from today was enought for you to add long there ? or there was other reasons ? thanks for answering
The Daily and H4 PA was screaming to buy. Notice the PA that began yesterday on H4 and then confirmed on D1 it was heading up.

The little H1/M30 zone that popped up at the London open was something to get involved in the trend and to tuck a stop behind. A bit of a momentum play.

Red X on H4 chart was showing a very weak looking supply that was taken out easily.
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  • #6,992
  • Edited 11:38am Jan 24, 2019 11:21am | Edited 11:38am
Bloody hell, that was messy.
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  • #6,993
  • Jan 24, 2019 3:39pm Jan 24, 2019 3:39pm
Hi C-12,
How many different time frames do you use to enter trades?
Your trade order needs to be in the right place at the right time.
  • #6,994
  • Jan 24, 2019 3:50pm Jan 24, 2019 3:50pm
Quoting Islandfx911
Hi C-12, How many different time frames do you use to enter trades?
Here's my current chart stack on 4 monitors.

Upper Screen 1 (GU Daily / EU Daily)
Upper Screen 2 (USDX H4 + H1 + M15)
Lower Screen 3 (GU H4 + H1 + either M30/M15 or M5)
Lower Screen 4 (EU H4 + H1 + either M30/M15 or M5)

The only charts I'm cycling is the LTF (M30-M15-M5) just to catch some hidden zones or for smaller scalps.

My goal is to get in sync with the D1/H4 direction with LTF entries. I use every time-frame, very rarely M1.
  • #6,995
  • Jan 24, 2019 4:40pm Jan 24, 2019 4:40pm
Thanks.
Your trade order needs to be in the right place at the right time.
  • #6,996
  • Jan 25, 2019 6:53am Jan 25, 2019 6:53am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Here's my current chart stack on 4 monitors. Upper Screen 1 (GU Daily / EU Daily) Upper Screen 2 (USDX H4 + H1 + M15) Lower Screen 3 (GU H4 + H1 + either M30/M15 or M5) Lower Screen 4 (EU H4 + H1 + either M30/M15 or M5) The only charts I'm cycling is the LTF (M30-M15-M5) just to catch some hidden zones or for smaller scalps. My goal is to get in sync with the D1/H4 direction with LTF entries. I use every time-frame, very rarely M1.
So you trade only GU EU?
How many setups on average per week?
What do you mean "sync with D/H4"?
Does it means both D/H4 must be trending in the same way for you to take the trade?
  • #6,997
  • Jan 25, 2019 1:03pm Jan 25, 2019 1:03pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} So you trade only GU EU? How many setups on average per week? What do you mean "sync with D/H4"? Does it means both D/H4 must be trending in the same way for you to take the trade?
I take about 50 to 100 entries per week (multiple positions divided up) so probably 20 - 50 actual trades. I would say only half of these are legit trades, the rest are usually cancelled or aborted PA trades which account for of my losses.

I guess you could call these trades 'scouts' as FTI would call them, but too many of them can give back a lot of profits from previous sessions.

If H4 is trending then it's a lot easier, GU was great all week.
  • #6,998
  • Jan 29, 2019 10:12am Jan 29, 2019 10:12am
my short 3182 on GU

daily / m30 / h4 supply zones together
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  • #6,999
  • Jan 29, 2019 2:03pm Jan 29, 2019 2:03pm
Quoting Giova86
my short 3182 on GU daily / m30 / h4 supply zones together {image}
Nicely caught. I had a bloody mare with GU. Had shorts on from yesterday and got shaken out for BE by today's spike up. Then got caught wrong footed a couple of times. Real schoolboy errors.

Managed to get back on side with the H4 PA.

Pre FOMC is always annoying for me.
  • #7,000
  • Jan 29, 2019 2:04pm Jan 29, 2019 2:04pm
C-12 whare are you.
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