Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Good Morning BenjaminIs,



Did not you get any chance on weekend to reply my quories you promised??

Plz advise about my user ID & PW were ok?? and plz let me know how/where

To start to learn your best/proven strategy, “MONEY FLOW METHOD”. Thanks &

Take care.



loveandpeace

Hello

Everything is SET UP for you. All you need to do is log into your account and enter your user number and password. I have arranged the symbols for you. Today we have RISK OFF. See the 2 Forex trades that I did on my platform today. That should answer all your questions for the moment.


Benjaminis

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ops+to+zero%29

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...?itok=LY4e264-


by Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/28/2019 - 10:24


The month-long rally - which just happened to coincide with the period when the US government was shut down - died with a thud today, when first China reported another month of declining industrial profits, but the real hit came when economic "bellwether" CAT posted its biggest earnings miss in 10 years...
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...20surprise.jpg


... and slashed guidance sending the stock tumbling pre-open, and once again crystalizing "peak earnings" and global growth concerns, while chip leader NVDA shockingly cut its revenue for the second time, this time placing the blame squarely on China, and sending its stock plunging by double digits.
Which brings us back to the warning from Nomura's Charlie McElligott, who last Thursday laid out various key reasons why he expects a spike in volatility and a sharp drop in equities over the week.


So a few days later, has Charlie changed his tune?
Well, as he admits, and as we reported over the weekend, a number of conversations the Nomura strategist held with clients last week "indicated a sentiment transition back into a “don't fight the central bank liquidity reversal” stance, with some real-money CIOs and PMs noting that they “have to” re-deploy cash into risk-assets on the medium-term, due to the change of footing from the Fed along with the PBoC escalation and despite the “end-of-cycle” signals being sent.

And yet, despite this FOMO approach to investing, McElligott repeats that near-term/tactical headwinds persist, among which:

1. Large expected “Pension Rebalancing” estimates with significant notional selling OUT of Equities and INTO Fixed-Income on account of very extreme MTD performance, with flows likely to weigh on this week’s returns into month-end.
2. Window for the “violent S&P selloff -17.5% in 6-7d or less” analog pullback remains in place for another week or so, still tracking the ’07-’08 and ’11-’12 analogs

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...8%20analog.jpg

On the technical front, following the recent greater than expected releveraging by CTAs to the long side, there is a lack of systematic trend “covering flows” at current levels, after having cut prior “Max Shorts” across Global Equities in-half over the past two weeks; this also means that the next wave of "buy triggers" is currently well above current spot market levels, so there is little risk for another forced short squeeze event.
Last, and perhaps most importantly, on Jan 30, there is a significant Fed quantitative tightening/balance sheet run-off event, which as per the "chart that every trader should have taped to their screens"...

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...20jan%2030.jpg

... sees a major $7.5 billion MBS maturation from the SOMA/QT Calendar at -$7.5B of maturation — which as Nomura has documented since last July has corresponded with a major negative S&P, and positive VIX weekly change.

The good news is that even if he is correct, McElligott concedes that after the imminent “peak pullback risk” over the coming week, there are catalysts for another short-term rally immediately after due to the

1. analog psychology tracking,
2. the return of the corporate buyback demand-flow and
3. potential for VERY volatile NEGATIVE model input dates of Feb 2018 to “drop off” the 1Y window (currently the largest single time-weighting) in our CTA Trend model, then MECHANICALLY LOWER the “buy trigger” levels

Beginning Balance 0.00

Rollover Fee 2.50

Profit/Loss of Trade 1,580.50

Deposit 50,000.00

Ending Balance 51,578.00

Floating P/L 0.00


Equity 51,578.00


Necessary Margin 0.00


Usable Margin 51,578.00

Comments from Benjaminis: 4 Forex Trades 4 Forex Wins - 4 days of Forex trading - 3% profit in 4 days.

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...kOVbhiL56BZrQ/

The administration claimed companies would expand their businesses following the TCJA Tax Cuts & Jobs Act. Let's check.

A National Association of Business Economics’ (NABE) surveys shows the $1.5 trillion U.S. Tax Cut has No Major Impact on Business Capex Plans.

The Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion cut tax package appeared to have no major impact on businesses’ capital investment or hiring plans, according to a survey released a year after the biggest overhaul of the U.S. tax code in more than 30 years.

The National Association of Business Economics’ (NABE) quarterly business conditions poll published on Monday found that while some companies reported accelerating investments because of lower corporate taxes, 84 percent of respondents said they had not changed plans. That compares to 81 percent in the previous survey published in October.

The White House had predicted that the massive fiscal stimulus package, marked by the reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21 percent from 35 percent, would boost business spending and job growth. The tax cuts came into effect in January 2018.

The NABE survey also suggested a further slowdown in business spending after moderating sharply in the third quarter of 2018. The survey’s measure of capital spending fell in January to its lowest level since July 2017. Expectations for capital spending for the next three months also weakened.


Where did the Money Go?

1. Stock buybacks
2. Dividends

The buybacks were a waste because valuations are insane. We did get something out of this: more debt.

The CBO says GOP Tax Law Will Add $1.9 Trillion to Debt.

According to the report, the tax law would cost the government $2.3 trillion in revenues, but economic growth would offset that figure by about $461 billion.
And as tax cuts go, this one was hugely one-sided. The middle class got peanuts.

The growth won't happen and the lost revenues will likely be worse. There were no spending cuts, and we did not even see the typical lie both sides employ: "This will pay for itself".


I am in favor of reduced taxes. But I am also in favor of balanced budgets.


Republicans are always in favor of spending cuts, provided Democrats are in charge.


Mike "Mish" Shedlock

https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/...ecious-metals/

Today is the day we want to warn our followers that we expect the precious metals to continue to base with a fairly narrow price range for about 45 to 65 more days before upside pricing pressures start to take hold of the markets. There has been quite a bit of chatter about Gold breaking above $1300 recently. Many people have been expecting it to move much higher fairly quickly. We don’t believe that will be the case – but expect it have another significant rally in April, May or June.

Monthly Gold Forecast Chart – Posted October 2018

Back in early October 2018, we shared this chart with all of our followers suggesting that Gold and precious metals would rally to above $1300 near December/January using our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system. We’ve been suggesting to our followers for many months that Gold, Silver, and miners would begin a new upside price swing, yet we knew the big breakout moves were still many months away.


Pay very close attention to the DASH lines on the chart and the GREEN and RED arrows we drew to help our followers understand what we expected to see happen in the future.
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/...019/01/1-3.png

Todays Updated Monthly Gold Chart

Now, take a look at the current Gold chart below with the same ADL levels displayed on it. Notice how price moved towards the DASHED lines almost perfectly in alignment with our predictive modeling results? Yes, the move in December was a bigger upside swing compared to the previous few months, but that is what happens when a “price anomaly” sets up with the ADL system. When the price falls “out of alignment” with the ADL predictions, we call this a “price anomaly”. This is when the price may quickly rally or sell-off, depending on the direction of the anomaly, to attempt to catch up to the mathematically predicted price levels.


Currently, we expect the price of Gold to stay between $1250 and $1320 for the next few months while it consolidates towards the $1260~1275 range near early April or early May 2019. And that will be all she wrote, folks. Because once price settles near this level near the April/May timeline, this should be the basing formation that will launch massive new momentum to the upside. Our opinion is that it would be best NOT to wait till the last minute to prepare for this move. Even though we expect this move to start near April/May of 2019, it could start to melt-up earlier than we expect – this is why we are warning you today that we have about 45 days left to plan and prepare for this trade. Subscribers entered a long GDXJ position down near the lows at $27.52 a while back slowly preparing for this major market bottom.
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/...019/01/2-3.png

Daily SP500 Index Chart

If our analysis is correct, the US markets will settle into a melt-up format where global capital continues to pour into the US stock market in an attempt to avoid risks associated with global market slowdowns and events. This “capital shift” will continue to play out for the first 2 quarter of 2019 without much interruption. Our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting that by May/June of 2019, precious metals should start to rally above $1400 and that means something is going to cause fear in the markets. It could be the US Presidential election cycle spinning up or it could be something external – we don’t know yet. We do know that the Brexit date, March 29, 2019, is likely to spark some renewed fears in the global markets and we are eagerly watching the news cycles to see what is next.


The current support levels in the ES is between 2525 and 2645. We recently posted a public article sharing our research regarding our opinion that rotation near 2670 was likely and that the GREEN support zone should act as a floor for current price rotation. Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting there is a vast array of support in this zone where the price should base, build power and begin a continued upside “melt-up” over the next 60~90+ days.
https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/...019/01/3-2.png

Why is it important to understand that this stock market may continue to rally as Gold and precious metals begin a breakout upside move? It is important to understand how fear rotates through the markets as a result of “origin”. The origin of the event or crisis that is generating this fear in the markets tends to shift perception as to the extent this fear/event will reach other economies. With the 2008-09 credit market crisis, the origin was the US and global financial institutions – the biggest institutions on the planet. We believe the new crisis event may be “regional” to Asia/China and Europe. Thus, the origins and reach of these events may be more isolated than last time.


Also, we know that the once leaders of a market (tech) become the dogs, and the unwanted assets become market leaders. Commodity/resource stocks (precious metals) tend to outperform the USA stock market in the final few months before the bull market ends and that could be what is happening right now. Tech stocks are lagging while the precious metals sector is one of the strongest.


We believe 2019 is going to be the year where skilled traders can make a fortune if you know what you are doing and can see these moves in advance. Our team of traders and researchers at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com are dedicated to helping you find and execute better trades. Visit our web site and see how we can help you build for a greater future. I will drop one little hint before the news hits the wires, we are building a new client services portal that will blow your minds in terms of ease of live intraday analysis, trading opportunities from day trading, to swing trades, and even our own long term investment signals). This new client portal will allow you to more actively engage with our team and fellow traders of our service. Get started now as we are only a few weeks away from launching these new member tools.


Chris Vermeulen

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ops+to+zero%29

Confirming earlier reports that distressed California utility PG&E had rejected a proposal by some of the world's most prominent investors that would keep it out of bankruptcy, moments ago Bloomberg reported that the board of the embattled utility which is facing $30 billion in wildfire liabilities, voted late Monday to file for bankruptcy protection as soon as midnight.


In pursuing a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing, PG&E is declining a proposal by an investing group led by Paul Singer’s Elliott Management that would’ve been backed by $4 billion in bonds and given the company enough cash to stay avoid bankruptcy while working through its liabilities. A second group of investors including Ken Griffin’s Citadel and Leon Black’s Apollo who had pitched a rival plan, were also rebuffed.


By rejecting the last minute rescue bids, PG&E - which was rated investment grade as recently as a few weeks ago by both S&P and Moody's- is set to file one of the biggest U.S. utility bankruptcies of all time, with over $30 billion in debt about to be in default. The company which serves 16 million customers, said a Chapter 11 filing is the only way it can handle the crippling costs of 2017 and 2018 wildfires that its equipment has been blamed for igniting. Since November, when California was hit by the deadliest fire in its history, the company has seen its shares plunge by 75 percent and its credit rating cut to junk.
By going from investment grade to bankruptcy within one year, PG&E will be what BofA recently dubbed not a "fallen angel" but a "failing angel", representing a singular event: when it files for bankruptcy some time in the next 12 hours, PG&E will become the third largest IG default since 1999, behind Lehman and Worldcom, with $17.5bn of index eligible debt.


The chart below lists all US index defaults since 1999 that occurred within one year of being included in ICE BofAML benchmark US high grade index. The three largest defaults in terms of index notional were Lehman ($34.9bn), WorldCom ($22.9bn) and CIT Group ($12.4bn).

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...6E%20BOFA4.jpg


By filing before the end of the month, PG&E joins an exclusive group of formerly-IG companies, including Enron, Lehman and MF Global, that defaulted directly out of IG, before making it into the HY index first as Fallen Angels.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...6E%20BOFA3.jpg


The last minute investor proposals to provide PG&E with emergency funding were spurred by last week’s surprising finding that PG&E wasn’t responsible for 2017's Tubbs Fire, the deadliest of the Wine Country blazes that tore through Northern California. The goal was to buy PG&E more time to seek relief from wildfire claims, perhaps through an act by state legislature, according to the people.


In the end, however, it was not enough.

The PG&E board vote followed a decision by California utility regulators to approve a waiver allowing PG&E to access $5.5 billion of debtor-in-possession financing, which is necessary to allow the company to operate under Chapter 11 protection. Bankers have been seeking to offer parts of that financing to investors, and after meeting resistance from some potential lenders, were still poised to sell the debt, Bloomberg reported.


And while it is unclear how many bonds PG&E's various investment consortiums own, one clear loser is BlueMountain Capital, which similar to Baupost, bought PG&E shares right before the stock collapsed, and challenged the California power giant’s plans to seek bankruptcy protection. In an open letter to PG&E’s board, it said there is “overwhelming evidence” that the utility holding company is solvent -- and that a bankruptcy filing is “damaging, avoidable and unnecessary."


In retrospect, it may have also been inevitable, and the result will be tens of millions in losses for BTFDers like BlueMountain.

In a regulatory filing, BlueMountain also cited a PG&E form 8-K earlier this month in which the company said it could shore up liquidity by using its assets to secure more capital, or access alternative capital. A spokesman for BlueMountain declined to comment on whether the firm is working with either of the rival financing groups.


Meanwhile, oblivious to the demands of its vocal shareholders, PG&E is already preparing for life under bankruptcy protection with Reuters reporting that the company is set to hire turnaround specialist James Mesterharm as its chief restructuring officer to help the company navigate bankruptcy proceedings.

Mesterharm, a managing director at AlixPartners, previously served as restructuring chief at Eastman Kodak during its bankruptcy proceedings, and also advised General Growth Properties and Zenith Electronics during their Chapter 11s. He has advised PG&E in the weeks leading up to its anticipated bankruptcy filing, Reuters said.

https://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html


The "Working Rich" Are Not Like You and Me--or the Oligarchs
January 28, 2019
Rising income inequality may be a reflection of the changing nature of work.

F. Scott Fitzgerald's story The Rich Boy included this famous line: "Let me tell you about the very rich. They are different from you and me." According to a recent paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Capitalists in the Twenty-First Century (abstract only), the "working rich" are different from you and me, and from the Oligarchs above them who pay little in U.S. income taxes due to offshore tax havens and philanthro-capitalist tax avoidance scams.

Before we start complaining about the rich not paying their fair share, let's note that the top 3% of taxpayers--mostly "working rich"-- pay more than 50% of all income taxes. The latest available IRS data is from the 2016 tax year, as reported by Bloomberg: Top 3% of U.S. Taxpayers Paid Majority of Income Tax in 2016.

The top 1% paid 37% of all income tax collected,the top 5% paid almost 60% and the top 10% paid about 70%. What's striking is the progressive nature of taxes compared to the income of each bracket: the top 1% earned about 20% of total income but paid 37% of the income tax, the top 5% earned 35% and paid almost 60% of the income tax and the top 10% earned 46% of the income and paid 70% of the tax.

So what distinguishes the "working rich" from the Oligarch rich? The Oligarch rich collect passive, rentier income from the ownership of assets: stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. The "working rich" are owners of companies, and most of their income comes from human capital, meaning their knowledge, expertise and experience. According to the NBER authors' research, when these "working rich" owners retire or die, business income tanks by 75%.


In contrast, the passive income from financial/physical assets continues on unchanged even if the owner retires or dies.

The "working rich" have a few tax advantages in terms of their effective tax rate, but the bottom line is they pay most of the income taxes collected by the U.S. Treasury. The "working rich" are not tax cheats like the super-wealthy revealed by the Panama Papers; they're the ones doing the heavy lifting of paying most of the $1.7 trillion in income taxes (which doesn't include the payroll taxes of Social Security and Medicare, with employees and employers each paying 7.65% of wages/salaries).

While a high-earner employee's tax rate is 35% above $200,000 (and 6.2% up to $132,000 for Social Security taxes and 1.45% Medicare taxes on all earned income), business owners can shift much of their income from earnings (wages/salaries) to profits or long-term capital gains, which are taxed at lower rates.
This is the key difference between employees and the "working rich": the working rich, as business owners, can elect to pay themselves a salary but distribute most of their income as profits or long-term capital gains, which are taxed at 15% up to $425,800 and 20% on everything above that level.


Despite this advantage, the top 1% paid an effective tax rate of 26.9% compared to 15.6% for the top 50% of taxpayers while the top 5% paid 23.5%.

The other key finding of the NBER paper is that the "working rich" kept most of the gains earned by their enterprises: rather than distributing much of these gains to employees, the business owners increased their share of net profits, a trend which has fueled the income inequality so many of us have been scrutinizing.

Why is this occurring? I have a theory. I doubt this theory lends itself easily to quantification, so it may be difficult to support statistically, but here goes: business owners are keeping more of the net gains because the commoditization of labor has reduced the incentives to retain the most experienced employees.

In terms of human capital, the gains in productivity accrue to those with long experience in difficult, high-value tasks. The most experienced employees make the most money for the firm because they can solve problems faster and more effectively than employees with less experience.

But once labor has been commoditized, i.e. sliced into discrete tasks, long experience no longer pays dividends. In a commoditized labor force, paying higher wages to retain senior workers simply doesn't make business sense. The most profitable way to manage employees is hire the least-experienced workers, get them up to speed and then keep their wages more or less the same. If they leave for another job, the tasks they were performing can be learned by new employees relatively quickly because they've been commoditized.


Now that even inexperienced workers are scarce in many regions, businesses are having to pay more wages and offer more flexibility to get replacement workers. But the modest rise in wages (roughly 3%, if recent estimates are accurate), are much less than the gains being accrued by successful privately owned companies.


In other words, rising income inequality may be a reflection of the changing nature of work: to streamline and automate work, labor has been commoditized wherever possible so the tasks can be performed by anyone with some training anywhere in the world.


The days in which the senior workers held the most profitable knowledge in their heads, and employers who wanted to secure strong profits paid senior workers handsomely to keep them, are largely gone. Would you pay someone $30 an hour when someone getting $20 an hour produces the same output? No wonder the "working rich" are keeping most of the gains for themselves: there's not much incentive to reward seniority if seniority is no longer adding to the enterprise's core human capital.
https://www.oftwominds.com/photos201...-taxes1-19.png




Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($6.95 ebook, $12 print): Read the first section for free in PDF format.


My new mystery The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake is a ridiculously affordable $1.29 (Kindle) or $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)
My book Money and Work Unchained is now $6.95 for the Kindle ebook and $15 for the print edition. Read the first section for free in PDF format.


If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.


https://www.oftwominds.com/covers/POD-250.jpg(Kindle ebook $6.95, print $12 )
America teeters on the precipice: our government is now captive to special interests and big money, twin cancers that threaten our democracy. This accelerating crisis is exacerbated by a toxic social media-fueled tribalism that has replaced “what do you think?” with “which side are you on?”
Our crisis isn’t just political—it’s structural:as the pace of change explodes from gradual to non-linear, the organizations that dominate our economy—centralized corporations and government—become destined to fail. We see this failure in both the soaring inequality that has hollowed out the American Dream as well as in the rising tide of social and political disunity.
To prevent the fall of our democratic republic, we must transform our economy and society from the ground up. As we enter a new era of rapid, unprecedented tumult, it is we citizens who will need to save our democracy. For our political and financial elites will cling to their centralized power, doing more of what’s failed, even as civil society unravels.
All is not lost--yet. Our way forward starts with understanding the fatal flaws of our brittle, self-serving status quo and embracing this basic truth: better options are available if we’re willing to explore.
To pathfind our way to a better destiny, we must create new localized structures optimized for resilience and adaptability—a flexible, decentralized, sustainable, democratic, opportunity-for-all nation.
Read the first section for free in PDF format.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...NoDUE7zeoMg9aI

Authored by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,
Here we have an eighteenth century depiction of two-thirds of the motto of the French Revolution – Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité, or “Liberty, Equality, Fraternity.”
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...8_16-12-30.jpg
It’s significant that Karl Marx was inspired by the French Revolution to form his concept of a utopian society. He envisioned a worldwide revolution in which all people everywhere would do away with the rich and everyone would then be equal. He felt that this could be achieved by peaceful means in England and America, but would require force in Germany and Russia, and a “temporary” dictatorship by the proletariat in order to create the ideal society. The utopia, he said, would from then on be self-sustaining.
As we now know, his utopia was a bit naïve, as revolutionary leaders, once exposed to the heady thrill of achieving power, are extremely reluctant to then give it up. They tend to become far more autocratic and ruthless than their predecessors and, rejecting socialist abnegation for themselves, ultimately become the next aristocracy.
It’s a pity that Mr. Marx didn’t see this coming. It was certainly evident during the French revolution, as is seen in the contemporary banner above, with its prominently featured skull and crossbones. (In case the observer didn’t get the point, the artist further accentuated his composition with the addition of two guillotines.)
Had Mr. Marx been paying attention to the actual results of the revolution, he might have noticed that the “Liberty” was never intended to be liberty for all, merely for some. (The others were meant to offer up their heads to the cause.)
And, in this, they were, of course, by no means “equal” to the proletariat who conquered them. As for fraternity, that was most certainly achieved in the form of mob violence, but it didn’t take long for the fraternity to break down, as the proletariat fought amongst themselves for the spoils, and the leaders elevated themselves above the proletariat.
But France has survived Robespierre, Napoleon and other demagogues into the present day and, for many years, the socialist party has dominated France.
But, in the last election, in 2017, centrist Emmanuel Macron was elected President.
So, where is France now with its grand socialist experiment? Well, surprisingly,for a country that’s so proud of “favouring the little man,” taxes are at 45% of GDP, much higher than other OECD countries. Social security tax rose as high as 71.3% of gross salary.
Although more than half of the population pays no income tax whatsoever, the government more than makes up for that with other taxes, which far exceed what exists in more capitalistic countries.
Today, France has had 220 years to sort out its “temporary dictatorship” by the proletariat and should now be the peaceful congregation of happy workers who treasure the lack of exploitation that’s the hallmark of the socialist ideal.
So, let’s have a look at recent events, to inform us as to how it’s going:

1. In 2017, France officially was declared the European nation in which the highest number of voters (78%) now believe that their government doesn’t care about them or their concerns.
2. Recently, Government raised the gasoline tax to 64%, ostensibly to address climate change, but intended to be credited to General Revenue.
3. Conversely, massive cuts were made to basic government services, including a €62 million decrease in the law enforcement budget.
4. At the same time, an incredible ‎€40 billion was allocated for immigrant housing at a time when the average Frenchman fears losing his home, due to high mortgage costs.
5. As a result of the Gilets Jaunes protests, approval for the government has dropped below 20%.

In these spontaneously-created protests, hundreds of thousands of citizens take to the streets each weekend, burning cars and generally behaving as irresponsibly as their government.


And yet, their central demand is entirely justified – they recognize that, in the government’s eyes, they’ve become milk cows and they’ve demanded a reversal in taxation.
In response, the government has offered a half-hearted suspension of the new tax in a manner and tone that’s ominously reminiscent of “Let them eat cake.”
So – socialist/globalist France appears to be imploding. Is it time to dust off the guillotines?
Well, we may not be at that point just yet, but neither are we far off.
The EU experiment is nearing its sell-by date, the French government is broke. The State has flung the doors open to tens of millions of refugee immigrants, and made the commitment to pay their way, with funding that simply doesn’t exist.
Although the French people may not be aware of it, these are in fact, “the good old days.” What’s headed their way will be decidedly more oppressive and more chaotic.
At present, although there’s considerable anger and disruption in the streets of France, the proletariat are not quite ready to storm the Bastille, but that would take little additional provocation at this point.
But, it’s important to note that, in 1789, once this had occurred – once blood had been spilt and the head of Governor de Launay had been raised upon a pike, the die was cast and Mr. Robespierre would soon turn beheading into a cottage industry.
Whenever we see such developments brewing, it’s wise to review previous historical events. If we do so, we find that revolutions do not come as pronouncements, followed by troops in different-coloured coats marching off to battle to determine the winner.
Revolutions begin with mounting dissatisfaction by a small percentage of a people, then are triggered by an angry moment in time, from which there is no return.
France may be only one event away from this eventuality. And if we recognise this, we can more easily gauge how far away other countries may be.
* * *
Clearly, there are many strange things afoot in the world. Distortions of markets, distortions of culture. It’s wise to wonder what’s going to happen, and to take advantage of growth while also being prepared for crisis. How will you protect yourself in the next crisis? See our PDF guide that will show you exactly how. Click here to download it now.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...Itxm0.facebook

QUESTION: Martin.
Do you give credence to the work of … ?
Can’t government pension funds be privatised or sent to open market?
Thank you.
NM
ANSWER: No, I do not. The problem is far more complicated. First, you clearly have tremendous losses already. If you privatized the various government pension funds, you then have many laws that have to be altered. You would have to take away the political playground of politicians. In California, for example, the politicians directed the pension fund to INVEST in “green” companies for the environment. They lost a ton on money on that one.
Secondly, we have governments who have directed that a percentage of pensions MUST be “conservative,” and that they EXCLUSIVELY own government bonds. Even the Social Security system is 100% invested in government bonds. While no OECD countries impose a ceiling on investment in government bonds, there are actually four countries applying minimum floors that require they own government debt. In Austria, for example, pension funds are required to invest at least 35% of their assets in mortgage bonds, government bonds, and euro denominated debentures. French pension funds must invest a minimum of 50% in EU government bonds. In Denmark, pension funds must invest a minimum of 60% of their portfolio in domestic debt. Finally, in Mexico, pension funds must invest at least 51% of fund assets in inflation-linked or inflation-protected securities, and at least 65% in securities that either have a maturity shorter than 183 days or floating rate notes whose rate is revised in less than 183 days
As far as PRIVATE PENSION funds, keep in mind that many can invest in what they want in North America. The following table is a list of restrictions on pension funds and their investments in selected asset classes. There are only SEVEN nations that do not regulate the mix of private investments in a pension fund — USA, Australia, Ireland, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and New Zealand (which the new socialists want to change).
https://d33wjekvz3zs1a.cloudfront.ne...ate-Assets.jpg
Categories: Pension Crisis
Tags: Bonds, Pension Crisis, Pensions

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/m...IAyco.facebook

811
Blog/Agriculture
Posted Jan 29, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
https://d33wjekvz3zs1a.cloudfront.ne...-Dust-Bowl.jpg
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I love the fact that you look at everything from a pure cyclical perspective. Al Gore who started this whole mess was not a climatologist. He was a politician. You are 100% correct that people will believe what they want to believe. There is no talking to one of this idiots. When there is a food shortage, they will be the first to advocate taking food from those who did prepare. Did wheat rise in value during the Dust Bowl because of the decline in supply? They don’t have wheat charts that go back that far on ____ system.
WP
ANSWER: You cannot forecast the future of anything in isolation. I only look at the cycles. The computer correlates absolutely everything including the weather. The correlation models show that we are heading into a colder period. This is when crops fail and the ground freezes as far down as two feet, which makes winter crops impossible. We are also heading into a solar minimum and that is when there are far more volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. All I can say is that it appears that when the ECM turns, the next wave will be back to an inflationary run and we should also see a rise in commodity prices. We have two major trends behind that: 1) weather, and 2) fiscal mismanagement resulting in currency value changes.
The Dust Bowl Rally in wheat was about 245% advance 420 to 1452. What also came into play, interestingly enough, was the devaluation of the dollar in 1934 from $20.67 for one ounce of gold to $35. That was effectively a near 70% devaluation of the dollar. We are approaching our Monetary Crisis Cycle, which will again mark the decline in purchasing power of world currencies. Just maybe we will see a very similar convergence of trends that took place during the Dust Bowl era.
Categories: Agriculture, Climate
Tags: Climate Change, Dust Bowl, Global Warming

1. Post 5,407
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4. Jan 25, 2019 6:38am | Edited at 6:50am

1. https://cdn-assets.faireconomy.media...ar392875_1.gif BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,555 Posts | Online Now

Quoting loveandpeace
Hi BenjaminIs, this is my personal and humble opinion, would not that be better to OPEN a LIVE with MICRO account, you know what I mean, you know better than anyone, the difference between Demo and Live account. what's your expert opinion about GOLD/SILVER, nowadays, is this the right time to buy them(physically)??
Good Morning my friend.

Your questions are excellent and right to the point. The SECRET to being a successful Forex trader is by learning to trade by removing FEAR and GREED and your EGO most of all.

The market is always right. There are no exceptions to this rule. If you cannot make profits of 5% each month that you trade Forex there is something wrong. 95% of all Forex traders both commercial and retail lose their capital and the second part of my answer to you involves capital that you trade with.

I have traded real funds since March 9, 2006 to be exact. Whenever I traded with $5000 US dollars , I lost my money. When I traded with $10,000 US dollars I would eventually have the same results. I have determined through trial and error with real funds that $50,000 US dollars must be the minimum amount.

Why is this ? The KEY to trading Forex with leverage of 100 to 1 is RISK MANAGEMENT.

My foolproof solution is to never trade more than 20% of your capital funds at any one time. So I never use more then $10,000 US dollars in my Forex trading account while trading. Since the MAXIMUM LOSS for each Forex Trading Plan is 5% of your trading capital as long as you win over 50% of all your Forex trades and have a STOP LOSS of $1000 US dollars on any open trading contract it is impossible to lose more than 5% of your trading capital for any of the 5 Trading Plans already established until March 31, 2019. Please post here any follow up questions that you have.

The second part of my RISK MANAGEMENT plan that always works as long as the Forex trader can control their FEAR and their GREED.

That is done by having the 100% rule that no one Trade Plan can lose more than 5% of their Forex trading capital. I decide every three months which are my 5 Forex Trading plans.

Until March 31, 2019 the five Forex trading plans are as follows;

(1) SHORT US30 (Dow 30)
(2) SHORT SP500
(3) Long Gold
(4) Long Silver
(5) SHORT USD/JPY (CORRELATION FOREX TRADE)

We trade NO OTHER Forex currency or CFD. (Contracts for Difference)

The next KEY is using my self developed over 16 years MONEY FLOW METHOD.

What does that mean ? Each day when we see at the start of the trading day which is set as 8:30 AM Eastern Standard Time or GMT plus 5 then we know at that moment by looking at the DOW FUTURES whether we have RISK ON or RISK OFF. Of course in this trading environment this can change in seconds.

This leads to another KEY FACT about Forex traders that depend mainly on Technical Indicators. If you do that then you are guaranteed to lose money trading Forex. You need to first factor in MONEY FLOW as the first fundamental that you use. Each day we will see MONEY FLOW from Bonds to Equities or the other way around if we have RISK OFF. The largest market in the world are the Bond markets.

This post should give you good starting insight into my proven 100% Forex trading method. I have traded one account at the start of my Forex trading career with real funds that had $100,000 US dollars in the account. I traded this account for exactly 35 days and my Net Profit was over $19,000 US dollars and my winning percentage of my Forex trades was over 75%. I have been an introducing broker for FXCM in New York and Questrade in Toronto and AVA Trade in Ireland.

I need to watch your Forex trading for 90 days in order to see if you have first the DISCIPLINE to be any kind of trader whether Commodity or Equity trader.

I need to see if you can deal with your FEAR and your GREED. Your results will show me and yourself that.

The only way that I can teach anyone is through communication. That is why it is essential that anyone here that really wants to learn must post on this thread with their questions. You questions today led to all of my answers.

Thank you very much for your interest and attention.


Benjaminis
BWM

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https://larouchepac.com/20190129/ban...igger%20Threat

Bank of England: Warning of a Debt Crash — or Covering Up a Bigger Threat?
https://larouchepac.com/sites/defaul...?itok=WOdjdhyo


Bank of England, British Pounds

As the failing British elite shows its incapacity to implement the British people's vote for a Brexit — a revolt against economic austerity imposed by that same elite — some ominous statements by the Bank of England about the state of "junk debt" and "leveraged loans" have gone almost unnoticed. They have certainly not been examined to see what the London-centered banking system as a whole is faced with, even if a "disorderly" Brexit doesn't crash the derivatives markets and the City of London banks.


First the Bank testified Jan. 18 to the House of Commons Finance Committee — which was completely distracted by the Brexit parliamentary chaos anyway — that indices of risky, deteriorating corporate "leveraged loans" amounted to $1.3 trillion worth. Leveraged loans are loans to companies that don't have the revenue to take them or repay them. Then it became clear the Bank was actually saying it was a $2.2 trillion (U.S. and European) bubble, because many of the worst-indebted of these companies were not included in these "indices" which made the $1.3 trillion. The $2.2 trillion was bigger than the 2007 U.S. subprime mortgage securities bubble, the Bank acknowledged, and 25% of it was in the form of super-risky collateralized loan obligations, which all the central banks are warning loudly about now, because they blew out in 2008.


Don't worry, the Bank said, 80% of these toxic loans are held by non-banks and shadow banks (i.e., investment banks, hedge funds, etc.), and so there is LESS danger than if commercial banks held them. The major banks are OK, it said, even as middle-sized banks have been failing in Europe from Italy to UK, and some big ones like Deutsche Bank are on the edge.


BUT the Bank issued a release at the same time, saying that there was a "leveraged loans" problem in China, and most of China's toxic corporate loans are also held by non-banks and shadow banks. But the Bank said this meant that there is a GREATER danger there than if commercial banks held them. The reason: Shadow banks are less capitalized, less regulated.


The Bank of England was telling the truth about China's leveraged loan problem, but obviously lying about the trans-Atlantic financial system's dangerous bubble, more than twice as big! Add $1.5-2 trillion in junk bonds to those leveraged loans, and the Wall Street-London "junk debt" bubble is four times that in China. And because there is no Glass-Steagall bank separation in the United States or Europe, the shadow banks borrow heavily from the big commercial banks, so the contagion is spreading.


This bubble is going to blow up! Reinstating Glass-Steagall will shield commercial bank credit, and the economy, from the explosion. It is part of Lyndon LaRouche's four new laws to save the nation; it enables the process of issuing national credit for productive activity.


The Schiller Institute, led by Helga Zepp-LaRouche, is mobilizing two urgent actions while this financial crash is threatening. First, U.S. citizens must defeat the British-led attempt to drive President Trump out of office with fantastic "Russian agent" charges. Second, with the President able to act, an agreement for a new "Bretton Woods" international credit system has to be initiated exactly by the United States and China, together with at least Russia and India. Keep London sidelined; 50 years ago it ruined Franklin Roosevelt's original Bretton Woods.

Classes are being held Saturdays in New York and online to explain the science behind this new system.

Benjaminis, wow, wow, how do you manage giving us tons of informations/knowledge. This is NOT an easy job.

I as a reader, sometimes feel my head is spinning, lol. I am pretty sure you are not from this world., you are using

Your BRAIN more than average people do. How do you manage your time with trading and all that??



Any way I feel lucky that I got a mentor like you. Take care.



loveandpeace