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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #1,401
  • Jan 28, 2019 1:26am Jan 28, 2019 1:26am
I am just waiting for price to hit a target then I will show it to you...
  • #1,402
  • Jan 28, 2019 1:39am Jan 28, 2019 1:39am
There we go...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 90 KB


These continuation divergences A - C form measured moves of AB = CD.
Where D is a support to be broken and becomes a resistance then.
  • #1,403
  • Jan 28, 2019 1:43am Jan 28, 2019 1:43am
Quoting Nala66
If we look at the weekly chart it puzzles me a tad because it can be drawn like this, indicating a short is due. {image} Or like this ( Yellow ) {image} Or even like this which I suspect is the right way.. {image} One thing is for sure I am not going to wait 4, 8, 12 hours to find out.
Hi Alan,

This is one of the spots I'm struggling with tbh. Whenever we have such situations (which is not rare at all), how do we pick the right high (or low in uptrend) to draw the beginning of the divergence from (in this case there are 3 possibilities)? In hindsight it's easy, but when trading in real time it isn't and we might end up losing a few trades along the way.

Any tips and insight would be greatly appreciated. Thanks and wishing you a great week ahead.
  • #1,404
  • Jan 28, 2019 1:47am Jan 28, 2019 1:47am
Quoting mikeeating
{quote} Is this wrong then? edit sorry I thought you were talking about the swing average target {image}

Here we are. As you can see from the chart below, the difference is not much between EMA 26 and EMA 29 but I am more comfortable with the latter as I monitor all the TFs at the same time
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU H1 0128B.png Size: 26 KB
  • #1,405
  • Jan 28, 2019 1:54am Jan 28, 2019 1:54am
Quoting Zelias
{quote} Hi Alan, This is one of the spots I'm struggling with tbh. Whenever we have such situations (which is not rare at all), how do we pick the right high (or low in uptrend) to draw the beginning of the divergence from (in this case there are 3 possibilities)? In hindsight it's easy, but when trading in real time it isn't and we might end up losing a few trades along the way. Any tips and insight would be greatly appreciated. Thanks and wishing you a great week ahead.
OK first off the highest times frame are not of much use to us most of the time.

Best to stick with the 1 hour and the 5 minute.

What inference did we see on the 1 hour chart?

What signal did we see on the 5 min that will attempt this inference?

Best if you try to answer this instead of me telling you.
  • #1,406
  • Jan 28, 2019 1:56am Jan 28, 2019 1:56am
Quoting Bydyke
{quote} Here we are. As you can see from the chart below, the difference is not much between EMA 26 and EMA 29 but I am more comfortable with the latter as I monitor all the TFs at the same time {image}
And your point is?
  • #1,407
  • Jan 28, 2019 1:59am Jan 28, 2019 1:59am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} OK first off the highest times frame are not of much use to us most of the time. Best to stick with the 1 hour and the 5 minute. What inference did we see on the 1 hour chart? What signal did we see on the 5 min that will attempt this inference? Best if you try to answer this instead of me telling you.
I couldn't see any div on the 60 min, except a return to the 60 min ema after it happened of course, maybe you can see something
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 23 KB
life is a reflection of what we allow ourselves to see
  • #1,408
  • Jan 28, 2019 2:01am Jan 28, 2019 2:01am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} And your point is?
To me both are valid.

Meanwhile, am looking at the Alan div on M30 and am wondering if H1 average will usher in the bulls as it did last Friday.

By the way, I have exited my shorts at 3151
  • #1,409
  • Jan 28, 2019 2:04am Jan 28, 2019 2:04am
Quoting mikeeating
{quote} I couldn't see any div on the 60 min, except a return to the 60 min ema after it happened of course, maybe you can see something {image}
Where are your previous swing high lines?
  • #1,410
  • Edited 2:17am Jan 28, 2019 2:05am | Edited 2:17am
I saw divergences on the 5min on the way down, but maybe they are not correct,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM5.png Size: 25 KB
life is a reflection of what we allow ourselves to see
  • #1,411
  • Jan 28, 2019 2:07am Jan 28, 2019 2:07am
Quoting Bydyke
{quote} To me both are valid. Meanwhile, am looking at the Alan div on M30 and am wondering if H1 average will usher in the bulls as it did last Friday. By the way, I have exited my shorts at 3151
All averages are valid it doesn't matter what number you use price will always attract them to itself.

This is not how I use the average..
  • #1,412
  • Jan 28, 2019 2:08am Jan 28, 2019 2:08am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Where are your previous swing high lines?
I have them on a seperate chart, ( if im looking for higher ones ) as Im on a laptop and they dont condense down enough

2 charts + the 5 min
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH12.png Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM5.png Size: 37 KB
life is a reflection of what we allow ourselves to see
  • #1,413
  • Jan 28, 2019 2:13am Jan 28, 2019 2:13am
Quoting mikeeating
{quote} I couldn't see any div on the 60 min, except a return to the 60 min ema after it happened of course, maybe you can see something {image}
Who said anything about a 1 hour Div, I keep using the word inference not Div and the inference can take on several forms.
  • #1,414
  • Jan 28, 2019 2:16am Jan 28, 2019 2:16am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Who said anything about a 1 hour Div, I keep using the word inference not Div and the inference can take on several forms.
ok thanks, so is there inference there?

ok maybe that price hit that historic swing high
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 19 KB
life is a reflection of what we allow ourselves to see
  • #1,415
  • Jan 28, 2019 2:20am Jan 28, 2019 2:20am
It's like the bulls are back! They are attacking M5 average at the moment
  • #1,416
  • Jan 28, 2019 2:21am Jan 28, 2019 2:21am
Quoting Nala66
There we go... {image} These continuation divergences A - C form measured moves of AB = CD. Where D is a support to be broken and becomes a resistance then.
Great to see the Continuation Divergences again ... From memory the reason the 2nd one started from where it did is because it was the 1st point/pivot/fractal that formed after the 1st one had completed (hit or exceeded it's Pt) that we can use to look for a new setup (The 2nd continuation divergence)
  • #1,417
  • Jan 28, 2019 2:26am Jan 28, 2019 2:26am
Quoting mikeeating
{quote} ok thanks, so is there inference there? ok maybe that price hit that historic swing high {image}
The price is near 2 average swing highs that haven't yet been reached by the EMA. I guess thats the 1h inference.
  • #1,418
  • Jan 28, 2019 2:28am Jan 28, 2019 2:28am
Quoting mikeeating
{quote} ok thanks, so is there inference there? ok maybe that price hit that historic swing high {image}
Good work that man however it failed to hit that historic high so it comes back to the EMA to make a new swing high price can have a go at.

So if the inference was a failure on the 1 hour should we not see a signal on the 5 minute?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 55 KB


Now we are in the London session so what are they going to do?
  • #1,419
  • Jan 28, 2019 2:30am Jan 28, 2019 2:30am
Quoting how2
{quote} Great to see the Continuation Divergences again ... From memory the reason the 2nd one started from where it did is because it was the 1st point/pivot/fractal that formed after the 1st one had completed (hit or exceeded it's Pt) that we can use to look for a new setup (The 2nd continuation divergence)
Ha Ha Ha what are you trying to do, blow peoples minds up.
  • #1,420
  • Jan 28, 2019 2:34am Jan 28, 2019 2:34am
See how price makes the EMA slither like a snake. Price fails a little bit then plods on leaving a series of swing lows but not lower lows.
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