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Diary of a Trader - "18 years and counting"

  • #61
  • Edited 7:41pm Nov 30, 2017 7:15pm | Edited 7:41pm
Quoting lfg4exp
i'm gonna post in this thread some highlights from cruicialpoint 18 years and your only floating and not swimming. ""95% of the time price will close above or below the open." Amateurs will never see the edge in this quote, unless a professional point it out where the edge lies within this quote. " "Let me ask you for a moment, which one is the most important in trading? Entry Exit Money management Psychology (discipline) Proven System (answer this to yourself before you continue reading) Okay, I want you to imagine these: Brain - (Psychology) Heart...
If you feel I am floating to each their own, while agree with much of what you have posted. If you noticed there are no indicators in my charts based on they are ruled based and the market is not defined by a set of rules, when institutions start to move prices is key.
  • #62
  • Edited 7:51pm Nov 30, 2017 7:31pm | Edited 7:51pm
Hi, thanks for your contribution so far Xxi.

Question, what evidence(s) do you base on to determine the length of time you will continue to ride a wave, or in other words, when to exit? Either going up or down, doesn't matter.

Case in point, GBPJPY has been rising non-stop lately since 48 hrs-ish ago.

Also, since you don't leave your trades over the weekend, I suppose you don't leave them over night either? i.e. Finish all your trading while you are actively involved in the market.
  • #63
  • Nov 30, 2017 7:44pm Nov 30, 2017 7:44pm
Sentiment trading, what do you mean by that? The only style of sentiment trading i could see being viable is
"Sentiment-oriented technical traders trade in response to predictable price patterns (“judge market sentiment”)"
it seems like you are doing that.
usually when I see the word sentiment i think of people trading based on "a feeling or emotion."
Users on FF that show signs of professional trading: CruicialPoint, ???
  • #64
  • Nov 30, 2017 8:15pm Nov 30, 2017 8:15pm
Quoting Qyqtxq
Hi, thanks for your contribution so far Xxi. Question, what evidence(s) do you base on to determine the length of time you will continue to ride a wave? Either going up or down, doesn't matter. Case in point, GBPJPY has been rising non-stop lately since 48 hrs-ish ago.
The index charts will show the truer sentiment based on the depth of the pullback. In addition you can have all similar based currency charts up and running, as they move in sync (meaning seeing shallow retracements across all of them). To see this shallow retracements fibs is utilized. Keep in mind Fibs can be subjective and point out how I utilize them with regards to institutional activity and how they flow with the "laws of nature" In the chart below is the technique of how I use fibs. (Always start at edge of the engulfing candle and not at the start of the trend) as this really is instructions that started things at this point. Bottom of of the fib is the start of institutional buying with the inverted hammer as the end of that wave. When prices retreated back to the 38-50% retracement and stayed there for a few hrs and went sideways, look at the institutions kick in a few hrs later (Candles labeled 1,2,3,4) are institutional activity. Keep in mind did we know this was going to happen, No, however based on the retracements was the first clue.

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  • #65
  • Nov 30, 2017 8:17pm Nov 30, 2017 8:17pm
Quoting lfg4exp
Sentiment trading, what do you mean by that? The only style of sentiment trading i could see being viable is "Sentiment-oriented technical traders trade in response to predictable price patterns (“judge market sentiment”)" it seems like you are doing that. usually when I see the word sentiment i think of people trading based on "a feeling or emotion."
Never said sentiment was based on pure TA, it needs a driver to create that, Please refer to my earlier postings.
  • #66
  • Nov 30, 2017 9:30pm Nov 30, 2017 9:30pm
Quoting XxixixX
{quote} The index charts will show the truer sentiment based on the depth of the pullback. In addition you can have all similar based currency charts up and running, as they move in sync (meaning seeing shallow retracements across all of them). To see this shallow retracements fibs is utilized. Keep in mind Fibs can be subjective and point out how I utilize them with regards to institutional activity and how they flow with the "laws of nature" In the chart below is the technique of how I use fibs. (Always start at edge of the engulfing candle and...
Once the M15 and H1 "institution kick" candles have appeared as per your outline, would it be right to start investing in small amounts first during the beginning of the next hour?
  • #67
  • Nov 30, 2017 10:46pm Nov 30, 2017 10:46pm
Quoting Qyqtxq
{quote} Once the M15 and H1 "institution kick" candles have appeared as per your outline, would it be right to start investing in small amounts first during the beginning of the next hour?
Possible, if there is no other pending news related events than yes in most cases, if the index and other similar based currencies are in sync and as always start small incase you are wrongs in your analysis.
  • #68
  • Nov 30, 2017 11:45pm Nov 30, 2017 11:45pm
Would you skip this trade because they are not in sync?
one is moving up, the other is moving down.
Both are related to USD.
would you instead be looking at eur individually and gbp individually ?
i've thrown away ever bothering to look at related pairs for any "sync" to me it's never been more than an illusion and headache

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Users on FF that show signs of professional trading: CruicialPoint, ???
  • #69
  • Nov 30, 2017 11:49pm Nov 30, 2017 11:49pm
Quoting XxixixX
{quote} Possible, if there is no other pending news related events than yes in most cases, if the index and other similar based currencies are in sync and as always start small incase you are wrongs in your analysis.
Outside "most cases", with no pending related news and similar based currencies pairs are in sync, what factor(s) would you say give reason to not start right away?
  • #70
  • Edited 2:37am Dec 1, 2017 2:19am | Edited 2:37am
Quoting lfg4exp
Would you skip this trade because they are not in sync? one is moving up, the other is moving down. Both are related to USD. would you instead be looking at eur individually and gbp individually ? i've thrown away ever bothering to look at related pairs for any "sync" to me it's never been more than an illusion and headache {image}
I need a lot more data to answer that question: Based on this limited information one would be "floating", however in order to "swim" with the big fish, information such as providing the driver that is causing prices to move (If any), break down of that number (what the street was expecting), index chart, etc. What all the other similar pairs where behaving at the time (having 2 is not enough) and lastly ditch the indicator.

Please provide this additional information and can try to answer your question.
  • #71
  • Dec 1, 2017 2:21am Dec 1, 2017 2:21am
Quoting Qyqtxq
{quote} Outside "most cases", with no pending related news and similar based currencies pairs are in sync, what factor(s) would you say give reason to not start right away?
Based on experience of fake outs.
  • #72
  • Dec 1, 2017 2:39am Dec 1, 2017 2:39am
Quoting XxixixX
{quote} I need a lot more information to answer that question, please provide: the driver that is causing prices to move (If any), break down of that number: what the street was expecting, index chart, etc. What all the other similar pairs where behaving at the time (having 2 is not enough) and lastly ditch the indicator.
no news
45 pip move on both from top to bottom of range circled , every currency was sideways before the move. they broke out pretty much at the same time in opposite directions.
Heiken Ashi is considered an indicator to throw away ?

where would you get "street expecting"
i never looked at the index chart before, if it helps this move occurred and finished at exactly 17:00 to 20:00 gmt on Nov 28th of this year, very recent. you could look at your charts and tell me what you think
Users on FF that show signs of professional trading: CruicialPoint, ???
  • #73
  • Dec 1, 2017 2:49am Dec 1, 2017 2:49am
Quoting lfg4exp
{quote} no news 45 pip move on both from top to bottom of range circled , every currency was sideways before the move. they broke out pretty much at the same time in opposite directions. Heiken Ashi is considered an indicator to throw away ? where would you get "street expecting" i never looked at the index chart before, if it helps this move occurred and finished at exactly 17:00 to 20:00 gmt on Nov 28th of this year, very recent. you could look at your charts and tell me what you think
Check out Econoday for what the street is expecting. I do use Hanover's "Pair Strength Analyzer" as this is a quick read to show which pairs are in sync.
  • #74
  • Dec 1, 2017 2:55am Dec 1, 2017 2:55am
Quoting lfg4exp
Would you skip this trade because they are not in sync? one is moving up, the other is moving down. Both are related to USD. would you instead be looking at eur individually and gbp individually ? i've thrown away ever bothering to look at related pairs for any "sync" to me it's never been more than an illusion and headache {image}
If there is no news, than I skip any setup as that is the catalysis to start something.
  • #75
  • Dec 1, 2017 5:03am Dec 1, 2017 5:03am
Quoting feline207
{quote} Ok thanks for your example. I think the concept is very general, because when we see a big candle, it is what it is, a big candle in some direction, already happened, people, institutions or whatever is the driver already participated. And we have the future that is still in the empty space to the right and carries uncertainty. I want to ask a few things that interest me. First - how does the observing of the chart and the candles carry information regarding future unfolding of price action, which of course has to be in our favor mostly...
So, to answer that, we need to ask why did the candle develop in the first place?

If it was Long, it means a large buy order was placed. We may or may not have known beforehand, but now the evidence is in the chart. Did it fill entirely? Probably not. Most times they need to then manipulate the price back down, by selling that same position to get more retail sellers involved, then they can hoover up far more buys when price revisits their original order price.

This is basic Supply/Demand zones, so now you wait for the retest of that area and then see if you get a reversal candle to join in with the big buyer in the background.

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It's not rocket science. Risk:Reward is massively in your favour as stoploss is just below the previous demand area. Stoplosses can be moved up rapidly after such candle patterns, if momentum takes over.
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #76
  • Edited 7:50am Dec 4, 2017 1:34am | Edited 7:50am
I have gotten a few messages looking for clarity on how to read intraday sentiment with regards to economic related news releases. Major news events (impact labeled as red right here in FF) are reports to focus on. Breaking down how these numbers and understanding the dynamics can have a huge impact on the outcome for the rest of the day. Are the previous are forecast the same, or are they improving or declining from last time? Lets say for example the numbers are similar (forecast and previous) and the number is better or worst than expect? In some cases the numbers maybe increasing from last time however the actual number that comes out is worst than expected. Think of it this way, you are getting a paycheck weekly and usually is around the same amount, however you are told things are rough and expect to see a lower amount or in some cases much worst than you had expected, or let say you were expecting a lower amount but turns out it is much higher than you had expected it to be?

A good source for how the numbers are broken down and what the street is expecting is look at the site Econoday. They give a range of numbers, it's gets very interesting when a report is expected one way, turns out to be much better or worse and sometimes exceeds the ranges that makes for some very nice trending days. CNBC and Bloomberg have some good speakers to explain things in layman's terms.

So once these 2 areas are in sync (fundamentals and early signs of sentiment are in agreement), I usually wait til the top of the hr. to see follow through. There have been too many time that news breaks, enter a trade and "BOOM" get stopped out. With this in mind, I will use this waiting time for technical analysis. I like to see an engulfing candle with little wicks in the direction I am looking to enter. Areas of support and resistance being honored of broken in the direction of my trade, utilizing fibs as needed, currency index charts, etc.

Once these areas are all in sync, money management is factored in, meaning we enter with a small positions in case things go against the trade. Not all trade setups work out, even when it seems all the above areas are in sync which is why we start small and will add to the position if the trend unfolds. No one knows for sure how long this trade setup will last which is why we are very mindful of preservation of funds.
  • #77
  • Dec 7, 2017 10:11pm Dec 7, 2017 10:11pm
About fibs it is first when it retraces that we can draw them to see the top ? I understand the inconvinience of posting a live trade but for the purpose of better understanding can you post a trade that ave already happen sort of walkthrouth if possible ?

Thank You.

Best regards
  • #78
  • Jan 27, 2019 12:27am Jan 27, 2019 12:27am
Quoting feline207
hello. how do you define 'sentiment'
I guess; you are talking about market momentum; in this case the condition of market trend will be helpful to you. Of course, understanding momentum is important; it helps me a lot to know continuation or counter trend movements.
  • #79
  • Jan 27, 2019 12:40am Jan 27, 2019 12:40am
Quoting XxixixX
The purpose of this thread is more of a reflection and for others that are struggling, the path of success can be a long and painful road, however it is worth it. Comments and questions are welcomed. I would ask we are all adults and to be respectful to each other. Shall we begin? .
You mean you've been working at this for 18 years and you're still struggling to make it work for you? That's no business, it's hobby.
  • #80
  • Jan 27, 2019 1:32am Jan 27, 2019 1:32am
Quoting XxixixX
Here is an example of Index of the GBP and the how institutions have been driving up prices since 2 days ago. {image} Not much of a pullback as they have been, adding and adding and adding, which is fine, I just want to ride with the whales Here is an example of GBP/AUD along side of the index chart posted above. {image}
My strategy based currency index too. Where you get chart from GBP CAD JPY index? My broker only have USD index only so my strategy only limit with USD cross only
If you like my post throw me a Doge: D9eyP5TFYGDaN1JpjyU4jaU9ypg2wUk8Zp
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