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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #1,201
  • Jan 17, 2019 9:20am Jan 17, 2019 9:20am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Well I have to withdraw in order to eat and pay the bills. Sure there are other ways to invest but I already have that covered. I am 70 years old so I am reluctant now to buy green bananas let alone look for other investments. I don't know what you mean by the term rentability. Off to bed now so will catch up tomorrow.
I understand! I'm 28 so I have to consider this possibility of the long term investment.

Anyway, good night sensei!
  • #1,202
  • Jan 17, 2019 9:27am Jan 17, 2019 9:27am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Where does the 2953 come from?
M5 Average swing high in November 2018
  • #1,203
  • Jan 17, 2019 2:25pm Jan 17, 2019 2:25pm
I just dont get why the pound is almost 500 pips up from the beginning of the month when all the news point for a complicated brexit deal. To me a 500 pip drop would make more sense. I think its possible that it will drop in the near future as this up move might be just some manipulation ( for me it looks like smart money is selling and then pushing the price up to hit the stops but i could be wrong). Do any of you know some reason as why this pair is going up?
  • #1,204
  • Jan 17, 2019 3:18pm Jan 17, 2019 3:18pm
Quoting STrading
I just dont get why the pound is almost 500 pips up from the beginning of the month when all the news point for a complicated brexit deal. To me a 500 pip drop would make more sense. I think its possible that it will drop in the near future as this up move might be just some manipulation ( for me it looks like smart money is selling and then pushing the price up to hit the stops but i could be wrong). Do any of you know some reason as why this pair is going up?

In fact, if you had not mentioned it, I wouldn't have reckoned with the 500 pips. You see, that is how beautiful our system is. GU could have gone 1,000 pips for all we care. Our System enables us to follow the moves correctly and we make our money.

If you look at Post 1165 above, I predicted that we could see 2953, 2971 and 2986 today. All those figures are the product of our System. Did they all play out? Of course, they did.

I am still thinking of how best we can appreciate our Doyen, Alan.

My advice to you is to take time to read the thread and understand the System. You will certainly become a confident and successful trader. That way you will always smile to your bank and worry less about whether GU is going up or down as expected
  • #1,205
  • Jan 17, 2019 3:24pm Jan 17, 2019 3:24pm
Quoting STrading
I just dont get why the pound is almost 500 pips up from the beginning of the month when all the news point for a complicated brexit deal. To me a 500 pip drop would make more sense. I think its possible that it will drop in the near future as this up move might be just some manipulation ( for me it looks like smart money is selling and then pushing the price up to hit the stops but i could be wrong). Do any of you know some reason as why this pair is going up?
Here’s my view ST. The pound was down earlier in the month on a stronger USD but since then the Fed has been a bit more dovish and further US rate hikes are looking less likely, at the moment. That weakened the USD and the pound started to rally.

With regard to Brexit a lot has happened in last month while also nothing has happened . The prime minister had her deal defeated in Parliament which UK businesses were not keen on or the city of London. That made the UK markets a lot happier. Since then a no deal Brexit is looking less likely and there’s talk of another referendum on leaving although I can’t see how it’s possible but it’s proving to be GBP positive for now.

As for intervention or manipulation, only the central bank would have the sheer might to defend the currency but I don’t think they would be stupid enough to try plus there is no need at the moment. Market intervention usually doesn’t work, the only central bank that has successfully done it is the CHF SNB but they openly stated to the markets they were doing it. The BOE has said nothing.

Thats my two cents worth but in a nutshell the UK markets are happier than they were with Brexit shenanigans.

Daz.
Keep smiling
  • #1,206
  • Jan 17, 2019 4:21pm Jan 17, 2019 4:21pm
Bydyke i will have a look at it.

Misterdaz those are some valid points you make, i just didnt see why the deal being rejected in the Parliament could have something positive for the Pound, but now looking at what you said there is a high chance that the Brexit will be delayed so maybe short term that was a positive sign for the Pound and in the future we will see how things go with the deal negotiation.
  • #1,207
  • Jan 17, 2019 5:58pm Jan 17, 2019 5:58pm
Quoting Bydyke
{quote} M5 Average swing high in November 2018
Strange I don't have one there...
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  • #1,208
  • Jan 17, 2019 6:25pm Jan 17, 2019 6:25pm
Look guys are you trading to make money or is your interest in political events.

There is good reasons for the decline in the GBP and it is associated with my birth. Just before I was born there were 4 US dollars in one GBP. In other words 5 bob was a dollar and half a crown was half a dollar. Then in 1949 when I was born the GBP devalued and for the following 70 years it has continued to fall against the USD with some small effort to pull back a little from time to time.

So we can conclude from this that it is my fault the GBP is now so low. Maybe it is waiting for my demise before it really begins to climb back.

P.s. My missus has just pointed out to me that for a price she is happy to help you out with that demise question.
  • #1,209
  • Jan 17, 2019 6:28pm Jan 17, 2019 6:28pm
Quoting hocius
{quote} I understand! I'm 28 so I have to consider this possibility of the long term investment. Anyway, good night sensei!
OK fair enough but why not make your money quickly and then invest that to take care of your future.
  • #1,210
  • Edited 7:07pm Jan 17, 2019 6:37pm | Edited 7:07pm
Quoting STrading
I just dont get why the pound is almost 500 pips up from the beginning of the month when all the news point for a complicated brexit deal. To me a 500 pip drop would make more sense. I think its possible that it will drop in the near future as this up move might be just some manipulation ( for me it looks like smart money is selling and then pushing the price up to hit the stops but i could be wrong). Do any of you know some reason as why this pair is going up?
There is nothing to understand, trade the market as it presents itself. If a 500 pip drop was on the cards then we would be trading in that direction. I have put forwards quite a comprehensive way here to be on the winning side irrespective of the direction. It bothers me that folks always try to find some political reason for the movements, it just means they are not paying attention to what the charts are telling us at the appropriate times.

You say the smart money is selling during this current up move whereas I believe the smart money is making profits not losses in real time. Speculation on what price may or may not do in the future is purely and simply fortune telling and has no place at all in this particular forum.

The market is always in a testing situation trying to get whatever price is can and doesn't care a fig which direction is going to yield profits.

Mostly the market is going to take off for these test areas throughout the European sessions and that is simply what I trade.

Don't get sucked into what the news broadcasters are saying, their job is to sell news by making it exciting (news worthy) another broadcaster may have completely the opposite view so your only one true fact is the reaction of the charts.
  • #1,211
  • Jan 17, 2019 6:39pm Jan 17, 2019 6:39pm
Quoting Nala66
Look guys are you trading to make money or is your interest in political events. There is good reasons for the decline in the GBP and it is associated with my birth. Just before I was born there were 4 US dollars in one GBP. In other words 5 bob was a dollar and half a crown was half a dollar. Then in 1949 when I was born the GBP devalued and for the following 70 years it has continued to fall against the USD with some small effort to pull back a little from time to time. So we can conclude from this that it is my fault the GBP is now so low. Maybe...
Lol. Yeah, brings back some memories.

But Allan .... wasn’t a bob, the same as a shilling which was 12 pence. In NZ where I grew up they basically converted the shilling to 10 cents, and the florin became 20 cents and the half crown was 25 cents. The half crown was basically 2 shillings and sixpence. So given your math your wife could actually double her money to deal with the demise issue
  • #1,212
  • Jan 17, 2019 7:28pm Jan 17, 2019 7:28pm
Quoting pakeha
{quote} Lol. Yeah, brings back some memories. But Allan .... wasn’t a bob, the same as a shilling which was 12 pence. In NZ where I grew up they basically converted the shilling to 10 cents, and the florin became 20 cents and the half crown was 25 cents. The half crown was basically 2 shillings and sixpence. So given your math your wife could actually double her money to deal with the demise issue
Yep all correct. I have to nip out to the shops now the missus wants me to pick up some Rat Saki or some name like that for tea.

However just before I go take a look at the 1 hour chart for accuracy yesterday... Post 1198
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  • #1,213
  • Jan 17, 2019 7:37pm Jan 17, 2019 7:37pm
Yes, good old days. We also had them in Nigeria: shilling, florin, guinea etc. The world is dynamic and we must move on.

Have you guys noticed the bullish Alan's div on H1? Are we about to see another trip to 3000?

Can it topple the bearish Alan's div on H4?
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  • #1,214
  • Jan 17, 2019 8:19pm Jan 17, 2019 8:19pm
I got 10 pips off that bull support on M5.

I exited at 2990 after seeing the bearish Alan's div on M30. It's like the bearish Alan's div on H4 is very much alive.
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  • #1,215
  • Edited 9:14pm Jan 17, 2019 8:35pm | Edited 9:14pm
Trigger pulled with short at 2988 after the bearish Alan's div on M5.

Protection at 2995 with a limit order since I have the hunch GU might touch 3025 before a definite plunge

Exited at 2975 because this is the Asian session. Would have let it run if it were the London session

It was good I exited because there is now on the hour, a bullish Alan's div on H1!
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  • #1,216
  • Jan 17, 2019 9:02pm Jan 17, 2019 9:02pm
Nala66 sorry for the post i placed here as i see know it had nothing to do with the thread (followed Bydike advice and spent last 2 hours reading). Its very interesting what you shared here so thank you for sharing this with us.
  • #1,217
  • Jan 17, 2019 9:13pm Jan 17, 2019 9:13pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Hi all I've not posted on this forum in anger for about 5 or 6 years now, rarely do I look in but I happened to stumble on Alan's thread and ended up reading the whole thing. This seems a genuinley good method and the OP is a helpful chap who shows a lot of restraint and patience from what I can see I can see some of you posting charts with real winning trades on too so that's always a good sign (Riaan). Would like to get involved myself at some point but I cannot use MT4 on my machine at work and I sit at a dealing desk in London from 8...
You can use tradingview. Add second RSI indicator and in options set length to 5, and choose RSI as the source and not the close. If it opens in a separate indicator window then just drag it to the 14 RSI window.

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  • #1,218
  • Jan 17, 2019 9:37pm Jan 17, 2019 9:37pm
Morning all, taking a shot at this
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  • #1,219
  • Jan 17, 2019 10:50pm Jan 17, 2019 10:50pm
Quoting Riaanvw
Morning all, taking a shot at this {image}
Not sure why you did this Riaaan… Late again and right on the signal for a long.
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  • #1,220
  • Jan 17, 2019 10:56pm Jan 17, 2019 10:56pm
Quoting STrading
Nala66 sorry for the post i placed here as i see know it had nothing to do with the thread (followed Bydike advice and spent last 2 hours reading). Its very interesting what you shared here so thank you for sharing this with us.
No need to apologise if I don't nip it in the bud from straying from the path we will have all sorts of things not associated with this strategy.

No harm done
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