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Plan the Trade

  • #10,181
  • Jan 14, 2019 9:19am Jan 14, 2019 9:19am
+1 just not happening today
  • #10,182
  • Jan 14, 2019 9:19am Jan 14, 2019 9:19am
Quoting Divergence
31 long +10
took the same trade
  • #10,183
  • Jan 14, 2019 9:21am Jan 14, 2019 9:21am
div at top short 5525
  • #10,184
  • Jan 14, 2019 9:23am Jan 14, 2019 9:23am
stop to +2
  • #10,185
  • Jan 14, 2019 9:24am Jan 14, 2019 9:24am
target 46
  • #10,186
  • Jan 14, 2019 9:27am Jan 14, 2019 9:27am
grabbed 15
  • #10,187
  • Jan 14, 2019 9:30am Jan 14, 2019 9:30am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Today is history in the making.... doing my screen recording for the very first time {image}
way to go VEE
  • #10,188
  • Jan 14, 2019 10:21am Jan 14, 2019 10:21am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Today is history in the making.... doing my screen recording for the very first time {image}
looking forward to it. especially commentary
  • #10,189
  • Jan 14, 2019 12:34pm Jan 14, 2019 12:34pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} looking forward to it. especially commentary
Yep. I will share everything in due time. Primary focus is my journey from curve fitting (/behavior) analysis to strategy development to stress testing to trading plan to consistency across minimum of 3 consecutive days, 3 consecutive weeks and 3 consecutive months (and then 3 quarters to finish the year). There is a reason why I say minimum of 3 yrs of consistency is required for long term success :-

some thought process in the works:
3x30min or 2x60min or 1x90 mins trading "sessions" until daily goal is met
3 days per week max (which day of week is TBD but definitely not on Fridays)
3 weeks per month max
3 months in a quarter so 3 quarter per year max (9 months/yr) with 2 months off in summer and 1 month off in winter

9 months, 27 weeks, 27*3=81 trading days, 81 trading hours/year.
Annual income goal/81hours = hourly wage which has to be atleast 2 times my current income potential.
Hourly Wage/Daily Ticks = $/Tick = Position size (derived from stats via daily ticks potential but one contract for one full year probably and then scale up)

wishing thinking or achievable?.... time will tell if market replay+Sim replicates live performance if all decisions are automated (as each process (by definition) is repeatable)
Staying in my lane...
  • #10,190
  • Jan 14, 2019 1:48pm Jan 14, 2019 1:48pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Yep. I will share everything in due time. Primary focus is my journey from curve fitting (/behavior) analysis to strategy development to stress testing to trading plan to consistency across minimum of 3 consecutive days, 3 consecutive weeks and 3 consecutive months (and then 3 quarters to finish the year). There is a reason why I say minimum of 3 yrs of consistency is required for long term success :- some thought process in the works: 3x30min or 2x60min or 1x90 mins trading "sessions" until daily goal is met 3 days per week max (which day...
Wishful thinking.

You threw out nearly 60% of the available trading days in a year. Not sure what your goals are but when I was working towards getting away from the 9-5 I traded every possible day (and still do for the most part). Why throw away nearly 60% of your annual earnings potential? If your system is automated why waste all of that potential? Just my opinion.

Daily earnings goals for the most part = failure. Having a daily profit goal will give you a reason to step outside the defined parameters of your system in order to make up for lost profits. Trade your system, let the money fall where the money falls.
  • #10,191
  • Jan 14, 2019 2:04pm Jan 14, 2019 2:04pm
I never heard of anyone working 24 hrs a day. Some work 8,10,12,14 some work less, In today's culture most jobs are salary it use to be hourly. So if some one could do there job in say 1hour they get paid the same as the one who worked 8 hours to finish the job
  • #10,192
  • Jan 14, 2019 2:10pm Jan 14, 2019 2:10pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Yep. I will share everything in due time. Primary focus is my journey from curve fitting (/behavior) analysis to strategy development to stress testing to trading plan to consistency across minimum of 3 consecutive days, 3 consecutive weeks and 3 consecutive months (and then 3 quarters to finish the year). There is a reason why I say minimum of 3 yrs of consistency is required for long term success :- some thought process in the works: 3x30min or 2x60min or 1x90 mins trading "sessions" until daily goal is met 3 days per week max (which day...
don't trade Wednesday but no reason. not to trade friday
  • #10,193
  • Jan 14, 2019 10:42pm Jan 14, 2019 10:42pm
Quoting magnumfreak
{quote} Wishful thinking. You threw out nearly 60% of the available trading days in a year. Not sure what your goals are but when I was working towards getting away from the 9-5 I traded every possible day (and still do for the most part). Why throw away nearly 60% of your annual earnings potential? If your system is automated why waste all of that potential? Just my opinion. Daily earnings goals for the most part = failure. Having a daily profit goal will give you a reason to step outside the defined parameters of your system in order to make up...
Thanks for your input Magnum. What I am dealing with is a "I don't know what I don't know until I get to know" problem in regards to the income potential of trading just one contract for the whole year/quarter/month/week/day partly because I cannot gauge from the current volatility and I have yet to get far back than september in my testing and hence the emphasis of taking the time to grind it out instead of jumping in heads down.

With the mindset of "whatever market gives" leads me to overtrade by greed taking over as I have never day traded before but now see the merit of having such a goal. It is also driven by my stats which tells me after a big win of 100+Ticks, I will get consecutive losses as is the case with trend following (but I got a hybrid model to trade any style/market condition with a few clicks so more to come on that). Also, my reference to automation is not 100% automated trading.. I have to manually kickoff the automation based on my interpretation of the market. There is no one ideal solution to make it work across the board.

With that said, I mentioned 3 trading "sessions" in quotes. session in my terminology is not market session or a fixed window or time-based. I don't know yet as I am only focused (and watched the NYSE open hour thus far) but it could be any window using the same architecture or methodology. As I said in CP's post, curve fitting is an extremely crucial part of my strategy development and I am not even there yet to look at other "sessions" or instruments. It's taking a lot longer as there is no way for "equity-based SL" or "Time-based SL in Sierra that I know of without diving into spreadsheet based automated trading. All that will also come later.

Regarding goal setting, 2 times my annual income in 3 yrs appears Aggressive but that is what I require before I can even think of quitting the workforce. What would you consider a decent income potential (in ticks) to shoot for? I feel 100T/day/contract is reasonable.
Staying in my lane...
  • #10,194
  • Edited 10:43am Jan 15, 2019 8:40am | Edited 10:43am
Power of Fractals and Chaos Theory :-)
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Staying in my lane...
  • #10,195
  • Jan 15, 2019 8:54am Jan 15, 2019 8:54am
Quoting VEEFX
Power of Fractals and Chaos Theory :-) {image} {image}
When you speak of fractals and chaos theory, are you speaking about the work of Bill Williams?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #10,196
  • Jan 15, 2019 8:55am Jan 15, 2019 8:55am
Quoting VEEFX
Power of Fractals and Chaos Theory :-) {image} {image}
Or just some boring a** moving averages.

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  • #10,197
  • Jan 15, 2019 8:59am Jan 15, 2019 8:59am
Quoting magnumfreak
{quote} Or just some boring a** moving averages. {image}
Your entry point also showed clear buying pressure from the prior three candles.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #10,198
  • Jan 15, 2019 9:04am Jan 15, 2019 9:04am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} When you speak of fractals and chaos theory, are you speaking about the work of Bill Williams?
I have only read about Mandlebrot and that too recently from our buddy FracktalFreak. Same about Chaos theory as well last month. You got to remember, I never had access to any library until I left my tiny home town and became an adult and enrolled in college. Knowledge wise, I am just a 30 year old kid in a 51 yr old body :-
Staying in my lane...
  • #10,199
  • Jan 15, 2019 9:08am Jan 15, 2019 9:08am
Quoting magnumfreak
{quote} Or just some boring a** moving averages. {image}
yep... but only to help with my eyes in making certain decisions that I am unable to automate.
Staying in my lane...
  • #10,200
  • Jan 15, 2019 9:09am Jan 15, 2019 9:09am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I have only read about Mandlebrot and that too recently from our buddy FracktalFreak. Same about Chaos theory as well last month. You got to remember, I never had access to any library until I left my tiny home town and became an adult and enrolled in college. Knowledge wise, I am just a 30 year old kid in a 51 yr old body :-
I did not know that VEE. You sound as if you had plenty of information. I have lived in nothing but Metropolis cities, I know when people are faking it. You are not one of them. I commend your work ethic. I was not even aware of Fractal Freak until I saw several posts from people I follow.

Anyways, this is true about markets, I doubt anyone can tell a time frame if the labels are removed. They are fractal in nature, as you know.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
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