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The Swamp

  • #28,841
  • Jan 11, 2019 7:27am Jan 11, 2019 7:27am
Quoting Boulder
We barely have US data releases due to US government shut down.. CPI coming up in 45 mins will be a market mover.. here is an interesting info... {image}
I wouldn't read anything into that. interest rates are still low. the rise is following a huge drop the last 3 months. After reaching a norm support.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #28,842
  • Jan 11, 2019 7:33am Jan 11, 2019 7:33am
Quoting gatorinla
dow may catch its breath at 22640.44 this is what I have for Super Rigid support this week (this week only, next week likely lower).. super rigid on month at 22165.50 ish... {image}
Dow may dead cat to 24120 or even 25533. Before ended up at 21294
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #28,843
  • Jan 11, 2019 7:40am Jan 11, 2019 7:40am
Quoting Boulder
We barely have US data releases due to US government shut down.. CPI coming up in 45 mins will be a market mover..
inline but poor number
  • #28,844
  • Jan 11, 2019 7:45am Jan 11, 2019 7:45am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Dow may dead cat to 24120 or even 25533. Before ended up at 21294 {image}
Still riding longs here on ES. Have cleared at 2583 and now waiting for 2630 and 2723.
For DJ, not trading it, but I have 2520x
  • #28,845
  • Jan 11, 2019 8:09am Jan 11, 2019 8:09am
Quoting Boulder
Good morning... I see no new level printed last night... H1 downtrend stop 1537 has been tested and held so far at h1 close... we might stuck in this range 1500-1550 till option expiration settle.. FX Option expiries - $EURUSD 1.1500-10 (3bln), 1.1550 (1.1bln)
try to pin this...
  • #28,846
  • Jan 11, 2019 8:14am Jan 11, 2019 8:14am
new levels printed... 52 adr so far ( low 1486).. a lot of room to go...

MP R2 ----------1.1541
FP PP ----------1.1519
RU R1 ----------1.1519
WP R2 ----------1.1518
add1------------1.1517*
add 2------------1.1496*
MP R1 ----------1.1490
FP S1 ----------1.1486
WP R1 ----------1.1473
RU S1 ----------1.1472
FP S2 ----------1.1466
RU S2 ----------1.1448
  • #28,847
  • Jan 11, 2019 8:23am Jan 11, 2019 8:23am
by the look of it, it looks set to retrace to 1.143x/2x if it can't hold 1.148x on H4
  • #28,848
  • Jan 11, 2019 8:23am Jan 11, 2019 8:23am
Quoting gatorinla
last week the spread was 2.42, this week 2.50. We had some Fed members talking about not raising. When at 1.13/1.14 range. now range is 1.14xx/15xx. But even after that talk the spread has risen to favor usd. That makes breaking 1.15xx area harder. the week start of stronger R at 1570 held so for. month starts at 1.1600.. R is tough 1570+. 200 day ema at 1577/78. That spread is wider and contains the recent Fed rhetoric.
spread is 2.53 now. 1460 may not hold. pa target is 1465.. 1543 was norm before, missed atm
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #28,849
  • Jan 11, 2019 8:24am Jan 11, 2019 8:24am
66 adr now....close some shorts here 1477 then next batch to close 1466..
  • #28,850
  • Jan 11, 2019 8:29am Jan 11, 2019 8:29am
Quoting Replicant
by the look of it, it looks set to retrace to 1.143x/2x if it can't hold 1.148x on H4
I would like shoot for target below today... that will be 94 adr.. that maybe too much to ask......

RU S2 ----------1.1448
  • #28,851
  • Jan 11, 2019 8:34am Jan 11, 2019 8:34am
ping pong w/o hitting my target or norm.. yet
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #28,852
  • Jan 11, 2019 8:37am Jan 11, 2019 8:37am
Quoting gatorinla
ping pong w/o hitting my target or norm.. yet {image}
I shorted 1519 last night... it took a while for this drop to profit...if I waited till this morning to trade.. I would have shorted 1535/37 H1 down trend stop...
  • #28,853
  • Jan 11, 2019 8:38am Jan 11, 2019 8:38am
need a nap.. 1460 has 200 ema 1h to help support. it still may want 1437 other day support below on chart..adr 1452
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #28,854
  • Jan 11, 2019 8:45am Jan 11, 2019 8:45am
Quoting gatorinla
need a nap.. 1460 has 200 ema 1h to help support. it still may want 1437 other day support below on chart..adr 1452 {image}
will this be a false breakout 1500 if we close below 1500 today?...late buyers for breakout are under water..
  • #28,855
  • Jan 11, 2019 8:47am Jan 11, 2019 8:47am
Quoting Boulder
66 adr now....close some shorts here 1477 then next batch to close 1466..
yea,, close bunch 1466 and 1462..
  • #28,856
  • Jan 11, 2019 8:47am Jan 11, 2019 8:47am
1465 target hit..now.. we may see some institutions here 1460 area,
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #28,857
  • Jan 11, 2019 8:50am Jan 11, 2019 8:50am
I maybe done with all levels today,,, next one 1448 not sure its possible today...

MP R2 ----------1.1541
FP PP ----------1.1519
RU R1 ----------1.1519
WP R2 ----------1.1518
add1------------1.1517*
add 2------------1.1496*
MP R1 ----------1.1490
FP S1 ----------1.1486
WP R1 ----------1.1473
RU S1 ----------1.1472
FP S2 ----------1.1466
RU S2 ----------1.1448
  • #28,858
  • Jan 11, 2019 8:52am Jan 11, 2019 8:52am
Quoting gatorinla
1465 target hit..now.. we may see some institutions here 1460 area,
need to shake out the last buyers in 1440s-1460s .....they either defend or give up their positions...
  • #28,859
  • Jan 11, 2019 9:05am Jan 11, 2019 9:05am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} will this be a false breakout 1500 if we close below 1500 today?...late buyers for breakout are under water..
when it missed 1520 yesterday it was likely to retrace ( i figured 1460 would be tested). closing above 1399 is not so bad for bulls atm for week. that's the least goal.. above 1460 better .. and above 1512 is better.. above 1520 should challenge 1567 area or more.

That day 200 is a big one at 1567... It could slap pa well below 1460.. But if you add in the Fed doves rhetoric, who knows. cpi didnt help doves. I just know 1567 and 1460 are big numbers.. pa may range within these fo a long time. But if it starts closing out of this range. that may be a trend.

at these levels 1460/1567 the cot report is more valuable than usual. we need to see what side is growing to b/o the range.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #28,860
  • Jan 11, 2019 9:08am Jan 11, 2019 9:08am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} when it missed 1520 yesterday it was likely to retrace ( i figured 1460 would be tested). closing above 1399 is not so bad for bulls atm for week. that's the least goal.. above 1460 better .. and above 1512 is better.. above 1520 should challenge 1567 area or more. That day 200 is a big one at 1567... It could slap pa well below 1460.. But if you add in the Fed doves rhetoric, who knows. cpi didnt help doves. I just know 1567 and 1460 are big numbers.. pa may range within these fo a long time. But if it starts closing out of this range....
H4 uptrend stop 1419 atm..its moving up.. it will meet soon...
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