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The Swamp

  • #28,821
  • Edited 7:46pm Jan 10, 2019 7:29pm | Edited 7:46pm
1/11/2019 levels...

RU R3 ----------1.1581
FP R2 ----------1.1571
FP R1 ----------1.1551
RU R2 ----------1.1542
MP R2 ----------1.1541
FP PP ----------1.1519
RU R1 ----------1.1519
WP R2 ----------1.1518
MP R1 ----------1.1490
FP S1 ----------1.1486
WP R1 ----------1.1473
RU S1 ----------1.1472
FP S2 ----------1.1466
RU S2 ----------1.1448
FP S3 ----------1.1434
RU S3 ----------1.1409
  • #28,822
  • Jan 10, 2019 10:54pm Jan 10, 2019 10:54pm
SHORT
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A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #28,823
  • Jan 10, 2019 11:59pm Jan 10, 2019 11:59pm
Quoting ill_be_back
SHORT {image}
I think that’s a good level. I’m not selling but just closed a long up here.
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Focus.
  • #28,824
  • Edited 5:27am Jan 11, 2019 3:49am | Edited 5:27am
I will post these but always FYI this Is from my broker and not from me - I deserve no credit for this
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  • #28,825
  • Jan 11, 2019 5:15am Jan 11, 2019 5:15am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} if we get the close below 1520.. I will set pendings 1543/1569.
still waiting..it may bounce again at 1511/12ish.. toward 1543 again shortly.
L close below 1520 today is likely bearish, below 1512 looks stronger.
L close above 1520, makes the highs test vulnerable. (possibly more)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #28,826
  • Jan 11, 2019 5:19am Jan 11, 2019 5:19am
Quoting Replicant
A cross-party alliance of MPs (including 20 conservatives) was formed today in the UK to block a no-deal brexit at the end of March. They have the majority at the House. Basically they want to bind TM government's hands. It's still very likely TM's deal will be rejected next week (market expectations) but with these latest news a no-deal brexit (very bearish ST/MT/LT for the UK and GBP, bearish VST for EUR) won't be yet a "done deal". There are rumors extending article 50 would be on the table. Thinking that might calm markets down at the time of...
Extension on the table ; Foreign secretary even speaking of no brexit at all if TM's deal rejected next week (very likely). Cable could skyrocket at any time now. No brexit => target is above 1.5x ; extension to negotiate a soft brexit deal => target above 1.43 imo
  • #28,827
  • Jan 11, 2019 5:25am Jan 11, 2019 5:25am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Extension on the table ; Foreign secretary even speaking of no brexit at all if TM's deal rejected next week (very likely). Cable could skyrocket at any time now. No brexit => target is above 1.5x ; extension to negotiate a soft brexit deal => target above 1.43 imo
Is this extension agreed by the EU though?
Just because the UK wants an extension doesn't mean EU has to agree. From what I understand, the UK side is not ready for brexit. So if the deadline comes, they have only 2 choices which is either to stay or hard brexit.

I don't see where people are coming up with the "extension on deadline but brexit is still on the table" deal.
  • #28,828
  • Jan 11, 2019 5:29am Jan 11, 2019 5:29am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Extension on the table ; Foreign secretary even speaking of no brexit at all if TM's deal rejected next week (very likely). Cable could skyrocket at any time now. No brexit => target is above 1.5x ; extension to negotiate a soft brexit deal => target above 1.43 imo
From the beginning a hard brexit deal is impossible: irish border issue is impossible to solve ("they" never discussed about the irish border during the brexit campaign !).

Extrem brexit (brexit with no deal) looks now impossible since the cross-party alliance formed this week at the Parliament .

Soft brexit (Norway model) or no brexit look the only possible outcomes now.
  • #28,829
  • Jan 11, 2019 5:31am Jan 11, 2019 5:31am
Quoting thelws
{quote} Is this extension agreed by the EU though? Just because the UK wants an extension doesn't mean EU has to agree. From what I understand, the UK side is not ready for brexit. So if the deadline comes, they have only 2 choices which is either to stay or hard brexit. I don't see where people are coming up with the "extension on deadline but brexit is still on the table" deal.
Uk can stop article 50 at its own discretion
  • #28,830
  • Jan 11, 2019 5:39am Jan 11, 2019 5:39am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Extension on the table ; Foreign secretary even speaking of no brexit at all if TM's deal rejected next week (very likely). Cable could skyrocket at any time now. No brexit => target is above 1.5x ; extension to negotiate a soft brexit deal => target above 1.43 imo
possible but alot of things can happen next week
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When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #28,831
  • Jan 11, 2019 5:39am Jan 11, 2019 5:39am
Quoting thelws
{quote} Is this extension agreed by the EU though? Just because the UK wants an extension doesn't mean EU has to agree. From what I understand, the UK side is not ready for brexit. So if the deadline comes, they have only 2 choices which is either to stay or hard brexit. I don't see where people are coming up with the "extension on deadline but brexit is still on the table" deal.
haha EU will be glad to extend with or without agreement
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #28,832
  • Jan 11, 2019 5:44am Jan 11, 2019 5:44am
look we know that the british who voted yes for brexit are brainless, literally brainless or have little of that
but at the end of the day, you cannot execute brexit simply because it doesnt work. the irish border is a major issue, what to do about it? there is nothing in place to handle that. it is impossible, illogical, as the other colleague said.

also about the impact on economy, trade, foreign workers, etc, etc

the whole idea of brexit is a myth of british brainless ego

now talking about GPBUSD, for me we will hit 1.39 whether we have brexit or not, so the news for me is just the few that moves the car... i dont care what happens to UK the chart tells me everything
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #28,833
  • Jan 11, 2019 5:54am Jan 11, 2019 5:54am
last week the spread was 2.42, this week 2.50. We had some Fed members talking about not raising. When at 1.13/1.14 range. now range is 1.14xx/15xx. But even after that talk the spread has risen to favor usd. That makes breaking 1.15xx area harder. the week start of stronger R at 1570 held so for. month starts at 1.1600.. R is tough 1570+. 200 day ema at 1577/78. That spread is wider and contains the recent Fed rhetoric.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #28,834
  • Jan 11, 2019 6:03am Jan 11, 2019 6:03am
GPBUSD targets 1.262x and 1.39
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #28,835
  • Jan 11, 2019 6:12am Jan 11, 2019 6:12am
Quoting micho
look we know that the british who voted yes for brexit are brainless, literally brainless or have little of that but at the end of the day, you cannot execute brexit simply because it doesnt work. the irish border is a major issue, what to do about it? there is nothing in place to handle that. it is impossible, illogical, as the other colleague said. also about the impact on economy, trade, foreign workers, etc, etc the whole idea of brexit is a myth of british brainless ego now talking about GPBUSD, for me we will hit 1.39 whether we have brexit...
Then today will be a very important day for GU. If it closes above 1.2813 we will have our first higher high close. And after giving it some thought, it does seem like the likelyhood of a brexit happening is becoming less and less. So i'm jumping on the GU long bandwagon. Subject to today's close.
  • #28,836
  • Jan 11, 2019 6:18am Jan 11, 2019 6:18am
Quoting thelws
{quote} Then today will be a very important day for GU. If it closes above 1.2813 we will have our first higher high close. And after giving it some thought, it does seem like the likelyhood of a brexit happening is becoming less and less. So i'm jumping on the GU long bandwagon. Subject to today's close.
it can go either ways 1.26 or 1.39, so better play small to handle drawdown
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #28,837
  • Jan 11, 2019 6:20am Jan 11, 2019 6:20am
pa is having a hard time getting above Boulder's number 1537. Sometimes it dont.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #28,838
  • Jan 11, 2019 6:33am Jan 11, 2019 6:33am
Good morning... I see no new level printed last night... H1 downtrend stop 1537 has been tested and held so far at h1 close...

we might stuck in this range 1500-1550 till option expiration settle..

FX Option expiries - $EURUSD 1.1500-10 (3bln), 1.1550 (1.1bln)
  • #28,839
  • Jan 11, 2019 6:46am Jan 11, 2019 6:46am
We barely have US data releases due to US government shut down.. CPI coming up in 45 mins will be a market mover..

here is an interesting info...
Attached Image
  • #28,840
  • Jan 11, 2019 7:07am Jan 11, 2019 7:07am
coming up some close Resistance and Support... wait to see what direction US session will take..

RU R3 ----------1.1581
FP R2 ----------1.1571
FP R1 ----------1.1551
RU R2 ----------1.1542
MP R2 ----------1.1541
FP PP ----------1.1519
RU R1 ----------1.1519
WP R2 ----------1.1518
add1------------1.1517*
add 2------------1.1496*
MP R1 ----------1.1490
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