Journey to consistency

I traded Nikkei this morning continuation of yd's gamble, didn't turn out any good.
However again with DAX I had a chance to correct my mistakes.

Overall +3.7pips I tried its not much but the main point is I did eventually erase my loss for the day and I have done pretty well I think as far technicals are concerned yes my initial assumption was off (but I wasn't off about uptrend) but as the session went on I did manage quite well I sold the initial retracement wave then as price approached 65,54 area I knew that was going to be a retest area, after all this is still an uptrend on 30min so with the long trade I'm concluding the day.

Last few days I've been on my computer starting at charts all morning and late in the evenings and I really want some time off to freshen up for tomorrow's battle as I don't want to make the same mistake as I did yd.

I think I'm learning to read 30min chart pretty well not that great but good enough so that I can at least end the day in the positive, reading the main theme and levels on 30min was the right move, I can't just go by 5m its too chaotic and I get lost.

I guess that's it for now tomorrow in the AM I'll need to prepare my 30min levels and plan of action.

Absolutely but there are days that can be predicted on higher TF's like 30min or 1h cause and effect days but of course if market wants to do something else we must go along to get along !

I feel like this is topping but this is an uptrend still on the TF I try to do my analysis 30min. Going by the cause and effect law the only trigger I see is up on top 940 that's the main level of interest for today yes this does look bearish on the bears side there're two possibilities I either get a retest at 940 or it bounces back off from 917 mid resistance and falls through 893 and 875 in which case that would be a breakout the initial scenario is a retest both looks different to one another on 30min, but slightly different on 5min I really like this (fractal?) formation around a level on top or bottom of a level along with whatever you're seeing on 30min it can provide a decent confirmation. I still need to master more, I did some work yesterday in the evening, think I should work more through the weekends more screenshots comparing these patterns both on 30min and 5min.

now can it go up ? for the bulls side I see 917 support becomes resistance if it breaks can act as a support if that happens then this can rise up from the ashes out of the range well anything is possible and anything can happen but judging by the pattern and price behavior both on 30min and 5min I should get on with the right side as Frankfurt gets going I shouldn't restrict the flow !

940 or 917 ? you know what now looking at it it does look bullish !
I think yd I should have kept selling at every fractal on 5min.

I see that I need to wait for a confirmation on 30min full confirmation before entering on 5min that's the main dish.

looks like it could be a breakout on 30min but I haven't got a confirmation on 5min so I'm going to wait.

update

scenario a breakout fall
scenario b finds support on 830 and continue to go up

main level of interest 834 I haven't got a go on 5min on either side.

1 short in target 756

I'm having a lot of mental noise right now if I did the right thing or if I'm ready to deal with the uncertainty.... however I keep reminding myself that what I did see on 5min was accurate unless something else happens of course well for now I have to stick with this 1.

oops uncertainty..... -13
keeping an eye on 834 haven't gotten a signal on 5min for a buy yet we'll see short failed.

stop hunt I knew it !
+30pips I know I got out too early or maybe not.. its a support
net +23pips

I wasn't brave enough to get up on that long wick!

it sure ran over 80pips from up there.

now I need to reorient myself and the levels.

update

scenario a retest
scenario b it turns up

main S 790
main R 817, 825, 838

no signal on both yet.

from what I can see on 5min it doesn't look like its going to rise up but it also doesn't look like its going to be an easy retest gotta be very careful 817 S 808 another S I think the safest entry for another short here is below 808 OR 825 if I can get my hook at 825 no hook here I'll wait below 808

+5pips more another short as 825 hook broke but something else might happen it might turn up I didn't get my retest below 825 hook so I got out immediately also 30min looks like it could actually rise waiting for more confirmation no green light on 5min for long just yet.

bulls are fighting !

Update

scenario a 821 breaks down and I get a PB
scenario b 842 breaks up and I get a hook and a PB

it's a waiting game.

Oh no its not going up from the looks of it 30min I also realized that I did forget about 853 another resistance.

this is going for a retest at 878

although I did see my hook at 843 no PB back.

this is going to be a long day, I haven't decided if I want to trade the retest we'll see but I'm not buying that for sure!

Although this is against the trend I think I could have still bought it from 810 it's a matter of personal preference I guess but for now I think I should just focus on cause and effect maybe once I master this I could move onto other things such as this.

Ok I finally see what it was I came across a similar situation in Dec found support on previous resistance becomes support but not a retest PB back to 820 was a good entry point, initially this could have been a breakout sell as it did fall and there was a stop hunt but there was a mutation patterns can mutate and as much as I try my best to adapt to the current for today I didn't buy but only sold it, I've learned so much for today and I should be grateful that I did end the day in the positive.

I have more to study and I'm calling it a day here.

Main support levels for today

S 953
S1 936
S2 913
S3 861
S4 846

Oh the layers keep them coming, I'll keep on peeling !

Scenario 1 936 might get a retest
Scenario 2 There might be a down move.

I'm ready bring on the uncertainty.

And I have to say I was wrong yd... the breakout move was the last leg down from the down trend from the previous day as far as 30min chart is concerned and from 818 the hook that held the price sent it climbing up to 846 retest 836 was buyable but I think the main long entry point was from 861 retest and on 5min I can see that fractal perfect long fractal the fractal from 846 I'm not so sure why from 861 and not from 846 ? I guess it was the R at 871.

All of the moves prior to that main move could still have been traded but I really want to do this the proper way and I think I should stick to 30min and wait for a final go on 30min before doing anything on 5min.

Sold at the break of 53 with 36 as a target but I bailed out too early....

+4.6pips

I'll wait for London.

since I'm a bear for today I figured every time I see a fractal I sell it on 5min 53 entry was that kind of entry

oops hang on looking at 30min I'm not so convinced this is a bearish day maybe going for a retest at 936.

I think I'll have to play a bull judging by the look of 30min it is starting to look more like a retest of 936 I'm not so convinced on 953 break.

I hesitated but sold net +7... It did go down for about 30pips

913 zone anything can happen here before London open I was ready to sell every hook break (I mean fractal) but 30min 953 break didn't quite look like a sell hence my hesitation back to waiting mode.

I have a feeling this may have wanted to test 913 not 936.
I could be wrong though but I gotta say again I'm not so convinced on 30min 53 break so selling just yet as I'm split in between long/short 60/40

waiting for more confirmation on 5min while still hesitating I don't want to enter more trades I usually slip into the gamble mode.