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Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

  • #1,381
  • Oct 12, 2006 11:16am Oct 12, 2006 11:16am
More Brillant observations from Newstraderfx~


Quoting NewstraderFX
Trade Signal #208 Sell AUD/USD at .7465

Stop is .7493

Target#1 is .7350

Risk is 33 pips

Reward is 110 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 3.3 to 1

For research purposes only.

The fundamentals that apply to EUR/USD & GBP/USD may not apply at times to this pair and the NZD/USD pair. You have the carry traders here to take into account; the capture of the interst rate differential controls a lot of what happens here...
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #1,382
  • Edited 11:57am Oct 12, 2006 11:35am | Edited 11:57am
I'm long AUS/USD since the jobs report yesterday @ 7435-but I claim no brillance there-just a good old fashioned no-brain straddle...care to offer any of your own brillance summit-hey wait a minute...that wouldn't be you pipsqueak-would it??

The point was to always be aware of the fundamentals as they obviously can have a big effect

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...efer=australia

Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Australian employers hired six times as many workers as expected in September and the jobless rate held at a 30-year low. The nation's currency rose and bonds fell as traders bet the central bank will raise interest rates again this year.
  • #1,383
  • Edited 1:21pm Oct 12, 2006 11:41am | Edited 1:21pm
Thursday October 12 at 14:45 ET

Trading Wave 1 down:

Trade Signal #209 Sell AUD/JPY at 89.67

Stop is 90.26

Target is 87.25

Risk is 69 pips

Reward is 232 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 3.4 to 1

For research purposes only.

Note: the above entry price is a possible reversal point. If the price rises to 90.00, which is also possible, then the probability of success will be larger with a similar sized stop. Or alternatively, the same stop could possibly be employed ( 90.26) Resulting in a trade with a superior reward : risk ratio of 7.4 to 1

If AUD/JPY rises to about 90.80, the probability of a successful short trade will be even higher. The conservative trader should monitor this pair and consider entering when it reaches this higher price.
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  • #1,384
  • Oct 12, 2006 3:07pm Oct 12, 2006 3:07pm
itme, this is my view for these 2 pairs.

AUD/USD seems headed for 7553 before topping out just a little above the
R1 Daily, I placed my Stop at 7558 - 17 pips higher than your signal @208A.

AUD/JPY is probably headed for 89.96 just a few pips under the R1 Daily,
the Stop at 90.26 should be good.

Monarch
  • #1,385
  • Oct 12, 2006 3:49pm Oct 12, 2006 3:49pm
dear Itme..
How about usdjpy?
when u analisis this pair?
thanks
  • #1,386
  • Edited 6:40pm Oct 12, 2006 6:06pm | Edited 6:40pm
Free educational video:

Video of How To Trade a Diagonal Triangle – Elliott Wave International's futures analyst, Jeffrey Kennedy, is one of those natural-born teachers. He likes to explain what he does as much as he likes to do it. In fact, in his Monthly Futures Junctures, he even includes a short Trader's Classroom article each month. In this video, he talks about his favorite Elliott Wave pattern – the diagonal triangle. And, remember, what you learn in this video applies to all charts, not just commodity charts. Click here to view the video.
"The diagonal triangle is the most dynamic wave pattern of all. It nearly always presents a clear-cut strategy with a superior risk/reward trade setup." – Jeffrey Kennedy

Jeffrey Kennedy is widely regarded among the world's elite Elliott wave instructors. And Jeffrey says How to Trade Diagonal Triangles might be his finest work to date!

In this two-part series, Jeffrey will tell you how to identify a diagonal triangle. But then he goes beyond the basic wave pattern and dives into the rules and guidelines, wave structures and personalities, and real-time strategies for trading this exciting pattern.

http://www.elliottwave.com/education...e=weeklyselect

Interesting essay:


Social Mood Changes the Economy -- Not the Other Way Around


Excerpt from The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior by Robert R. Prechter, Jr


http://www.elliotwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=pmp
  • #1,387
  • Oct 12, 2006 6:37pm Oct 12, 2006 6:37pm
I like to rag on you- Sorry- you've got thick skin right?


Quoting NewstraderFX
I'm long AUS/USD since the jobs report yesterday @ 7435-but I claim no brillance there-just a good old fashioned no-brain straddle...care to offer any of your own brillance summit-hey wait a minute...that wouldn't be you pipsqueak-would it??

The point was to always be aware of the fundamentals as they obviously can have a big effect

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...efer=australia

Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Australian employers hired six times as many workers as expected in September and the jobless rate held at a 30-year low. The nation's currency rose and bonds fell as traders bet the central bank will raise interest rates again this year.
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #1,388
  • Oct 12, 2006 6:39pm Oct 12, 2006 6:39pm
The USD/CHF is just a screaming short in my opinion. I need to review your methodology to understand your perspective.


Quoting itme
Thursday October 12 at 1:45 ET

Regarding Trade Signal #206 Buy USD/CHF at 1.2690 , upon further study we discovered that we placed our stop in the wrong location, which caused this trade to be stopped out. The stop should have been at 1.2664. The low was 1.2676. We should therefore still be in this trade. Therefore, we shall re-enter at 1.2692 or so, which is close to our original entry price.

Re-enter Trade Signal #206 Buy USD/CHF at 1.2692

Stop is 1.2664

Target is 1.2820

Risk is 32 pips

Reward is 124 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 3.9 to 1

For research purposes only.
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____________________________________________

Previous trade signal:

Wednesday October 11 at 6:00 ET

Trade Signal #206 Buy USD/CHF at 1.2690
Stop is 1.2676
Target is 1.2820
Risk is 18 pips
Reward is 126 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 7.0 to 1

For research purposes only.
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Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #1,389
  • Edited 7:09pm Oct 12, 2006 6:49pm | Edited 7:09pm
Hi Summitfx,

I also look forward to the top of this trend, as I anticipate some spectacular downwards slides on the USD/CHF over coming days and weeks. But for now, my interpretation of the Elliott Wave pattern, and that of my mentor, says that we have one more swing wave up to go.
  • #1,390
  • Oct 12, 2006 7:09pm Oct 12, 2006 7:09pm
Thursday October 12 at 22:15 ET

Adjust stop on Trade Signal #205 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8580 to 1.8665
_____________________________________________

Previous trade signal:

Wednesday October 11 at 6:00 ET

Trade Signal #205 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8580
Stop is 1.8623
Target #1 is 1.8450
Risk is 47 pips
Reward is 126 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 2.7 to 1

For research purposes only.
  • #1,391
  • Oct 12, 2006 7:13pm Oct 12, 2006 7:13pm
Thursday October 12 at 22:15 ET

Adjust stop on Trade Signal #206 Buy USD/CHF to 1.2645
______________________________________________

Previous Trade Signal:

Thursday October 12 at 1:45 ET

Regarding Trade Signal #206 Buy USD/CHF at 1.2690 , upon further study we discovered that we placed our stop in the wrong location, which caused this trade to be stopped out. The stop should have been at 1.2664. The low was 1.2676. We should therefore still be in this trade. Therefore, we shall re-enter at 1.2692 or so, which is close to our original entry price.

Re-enter Trade Signal #206 Buy USD/CHF at 1.2692
Stop is 1.2664
Target is 1.2820
Risk is 32 pips
Reward is 124 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 3.9 to 1

For research purposes only.
<!-- / message --><!-- controls -->
  • #1,392
  • Oct 12, 2006 7:17pm Oct 12, 2006 7:17pm
Thursday October 12 at 22:15 ET

Adjust stop on Trade Signal #204 Sell EUR/USD at 1.2555 to 1.2606
____________________________________________________

Previous Trade Signal:

 Trade Signal #204 Sell EUR/USD at 1.2555
Stop is 1.2583
Target is 1.2460
Risk is 30 pips
Reward is 93 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 3.1 to 1

For research purposes only.
  • #1,393
  • Oct 12, 2006 7:36pm Oct 12, 2006 7:36pm
Thursday October 12 at 22:45 ET

USD/JPY will probably descend to 119.05 and then ascend to 120.30 - 120.55
  • #1,394
  • Oct 12, 2006 11:13pm Oct 12, 2006 11:13pm
Hi itme

Given your new GBP/USD stop @18 665, at what point do you see it turning.
I am currently long and would like to flip my trade.

Thankyou
  • #1,395
  • Oct 12, 2006 11:32pm Oct 12, 2006 11:32pm
i think cable will test 1.8700 today or monday before continue falling down...keep your long position..
{Link Removed}]
  • #1,396
  • Edited 9:17am Oct 13, 2006 2:12am | Edited 9:17am
Yes, Kenario, a rise to 1.8700 on GBP/USD is possible. But I consider it somewhat improbable.
  • #1,397
  • Oct 13, 2006 8:18am Oct 13, 2006 8:18am
Quoting monarch
itme, this is my view for these 2 pairs.

AUD/USD seems headed for 7553 before topping out just a little above the
R1 Daily, I placed my Stop at 7558 - 17 pips higher than your signal @208A.

AUD/JPY is probably headed for 89.96 just a few pips under the R1 Daily,
the Stop at 90.26 should be good.

Monarch
AUD is still moving up.

AUD/JPY rose to 89.91 this morning, and I expect it to climb to or past the 89.96 area. I have Sells waiting at both 89.96 and 90.35.

AUD/USD has stalled a bit, I am still expecting it to rise to 7553 and possibly to 7581. I have Sells waiting at both 7548 and 7577.

Should be an interesting week of trading next week.
Have great weekend everyone!
Monarch
  • #1,398
  • Edited 10:10am Oct 13, 2006 8:49am | Edited 10:10am
Friday, October 13 at 11:55 ET

In accordance with our prediction, USD/JPY descended to precisely 119.05 at 3:55 ET on Friday October 13 (today), and then ascended rapidly to 119.87. It is in the middle of its third wave up, so it seems well on its way to "ascending to 120.30 - 120.55" as predicted.

______________________________________

Previous "prediction":

Thursday October 12 at 22:45 ET

USD/JPY will probably descend to 119.05 and then ascend to 120.30 - 120.55
  • #1,399
  • Oct 13, 2006 9:01am Oct 13, 2006 9:01am
Quoting itme
Friday, October 13 at 11:55 ET

According to our prediction, USD/JPY descended to precisely 119.05 at 3:55 ET on Friday October 13 (today), and then ascended rapidly to 119.87. It is in the middle of its third wave up, so it seems well on its way to "ascending to 120.30 - 120.55" as predicted.

______________________________________

Previous "predition":

Thursday October 12 at 22:45 ET

USD/JPY will probably descend to 119.05 and then ascend to 120.30 - 120.55
Dear itme..
What point top of usdjpy for this wave?
What point for reversal cable and euro?
plis i have trade in that pair..
thanks

waskito
  • #1,400
  • Edited Oct 14, 2006 7:06pm Oct 13, 2006 9:07am | Edited Oct 14, 2006 7:06pm
Friday, October 13 at 12:15 ET

Our trade signal is still good because our stop was placed in a relatively safe place, but AUD/JPY has started another wave up. AUD/USD seems to have turned the corner downwards, and USD/JPY jumped up with great conviction exactly as predicted. The USD/JPY upwards move has been stronger than the AUD/USD downwards move, bringing AUD/JPY up to an interim high of 89.93. As Monarch observed above, AUD/JPY seems to be set to rise to 89.96 - 90.00.

According to our analysis, which Monarch concurs with employing his or her system of analysis, 90.00 is a high probability reversal point. Both the Elliott Wave pattern and the reversal prediction system point clearly to this number as a high probability trend reversal point. As stated earlier, "If the price rises to 90.00, which is also possible, then the probability of success will be larger with a similar sized stop. Or alternatively, the same stop could possibly be employed ( 90.26) Resulting in a trade with a superior reward : risk ratio of 7.4 to 1"

__________________________________________________

Previous trade signal:

Thursday October 12 at 14:45 ET

Trading Wave 1 down:

Trade Signal #209 Sell AUD/JPY at 89.67
Stop is 90.26
Target is 87.25
Risk is 69 pips
Reward is 232 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 3.4 to 1

For research purposes only.

Note: the above entry price is a possible reversal point. If the price rises to 90.00, which is also possible, then the probability of success will be larger with a similar sized stop. Or alternatively, the same stop could possibly be employed ( 90.26) Resulting in a trade with a superior reward : risk ratio of 7.4 to 1

If AUD/JPY rises to about 90.80, the probability of a successful short trade will be even higher. The conservative trader should monitor this pair and consider entering when it reaches this higher price.
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