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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #881
  • Jan 7, 2019 11:05am Jan 7, 2019 11:05am
Hi Alan, welcome back. I wish a wonderful year of trading with full of joys and pips for all of us
  • #882
  • Edited 1:14pm Jan 7, 2019 1:03pm | Edited 1:14pm
Quoting Riaanvw
Break even {image}
Well done mate i got stopped out twice and gave up.

Something occurred to me this morning what do you think.

In reference to the 1hour at the 108 for inference for an idea for direction.

1, Would you assume that if there was no divergence at the one hour at this time then the direction we would be looking for would still be the continuation north?

2, If /at the 108 or just after London open you discovered a bear divergence on the 5-15 min time frame (which happened yesterday) but still no divergence on the hour you would then look at entering with the expectation of hedging or making the next 5 min swing (south) your target then for b, your entry to continue north again?

Seems like this is what happened yesterday with that bounce off the lower 5 min swing, but then again it was chop city

edit: I am wondering now how long it would take to see a bearish divergence form on the hourly, 2-4 hours? maybe during these periods we end up trading in chop
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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life is a reflection of what we allow ourselves to see
  • #883
  • Jan 7, 2019 8:03pm Jan 7, 2019 8:03pm
Quoting mikeeating
{quote} Well done mate i got stopped out twice and gave up. Something occurred to me this morning what do you think. In reference to the 1hour at the 108 for inference for an idea for direction. 1, Would you assume that if there was no divergence at the one hour at this time then the direction we would be looking for would still be the continuation north? 2, If /at the 108 or just after London open you discovered a bear divergence on the 5-15 min time frame (which happened yesterday) but still no divergence on the hour you would then look at entering...
Hey Mike,

The old motto came into play last night, "if in doubt stay out"
For me is was a continuation trade as there was no regular divergence on the 1 hour but there was hidden divergence on the hourly indicating it was likely to go higher.

Cheers PauL
  • #884
  • Edited 11:45pm Jan 7, 2019 9:20pm | Edited 11:45pm
Guys

My understanding is that there are 2 types of signals to look for on the H1 prior to the Frankfurt Open

1. Momentum (RSI) at Extremes (no divergence)
2. Divergence at Momentum (RSI) Extremes - primarily price/RSI and RSI/RSI divergence.

There was a bearish divergence starting near the end of the previous day session (NY close) and finishing about 5 hours into the new trading day. However, it was not a bearish divergence at momentum (RSI) extremes.

There was a bearish divergence on the 5M chart just before the London Open. Price did drop as per the H1 and M5 signals after the London open, but it only dropped to the average swing low shown on the M5 chart, (and just above the 26EMA on the H1 chart), or about 20 pips.

If you look at the H1 chart, at the end of the first hour of the London Open you will see that:
1. the RSI (5) is at an extreme, just below 20.
2. the RSI (14) is still above 50, and
3. as I mentioned the price had just found bull support on the H1
On the 5M chart
1. Price had hit the swing low
2. Both RSI (14) and RSI (5) were at extremes, especially the RSI (14).
This is a clear indication that price would reverse, and most likely break the 26EMA on the 5M chart and go back to the swing high ... which it did.

On the H1 this price action was closely followed by a small bearish divergence and then a bullish divergence ... and on it goes.

This is how I have been reading the charts .... but I see Allan is back, so he will likely have some more explicit guidance.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD H1 2019-01-07.png Size: 56 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD 5M 2019-01-07.png Size: 83 KB
  • #885
  • Jan 7, 2019 10:08pm Jan 7, 2019 10:08pm
Quoting pakeha
. but I see Allan is back, so he will likely have some more explicit guidance.
I will but I am a tad busy for a couple of hours but I will be here later... In the mean time here is the 1 hour chart to have a look at...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 61 KB
  • #886
  • Jan 7, 2019 10:12pm Jan 7, 2019 10:12pm
Quoting mikeeating
{quote} Well done mate i got stopped out twice and gave up. Something occurred to me this morning what do you think. In reference to the 1hour at the 108 for inference for an idea for direction. 1, Would you assume that if there was no divergence at the one hour at this time then the direction we would be looking for would still be the continuation north? 2, If /at the 108 or just after London open you discovered a bear divergence on the 5-15 min time frame (which happened yesterday) but still no divergence on the hour you would then look at entering...
For my trade yesterday I took this short based on 60min div which was back towards the 60ema which I should have banked +20 pips instead of BE and from there north again yes on 5min div signals which were there
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 60.png Size: 58 KB
  • #887
  • Jan 7, 2019 10:15pm Jan 7, 2019 10:15pm
I see you also mentioned bearish div for the previous day/Friday but this is what I see
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #888
  • Jan 7, 2019 10:47pm Jan 7, 2019 10:47pm
Quoting Nala66
Hi Guys I just got home and it is 1am. ... to making you all Forexianaires. Alan

The doyen himself! Welcome.

We are all glad that you are back from the holidays.

Forexianaires: another addition to our lexicon. Check out the previous ones:
Bull support
Bear support
Average Swing high
Average Swing Low
Impulse Bar
Two-bar test
Alan's Divergence

I agree with you. 2019 is going to be very juicy for all of us on this thread. Infact, the more confusion there is with Brexit the better for us all.

Once again, welcome back.
  • #889
  • Jan 7, 2019 11:32pm Jan 7, 2019 11:32pm
Quoting pakeha
Guys My understanding is that there are 2 types of signals to look for on the H1 prior to the Frankfurt Open .... but I see Allan is back, so he will likely have some more explicit guidance. {image} {image}
Brilliant, Pakeha.

For me, I feel more comfortable with Alan's divs than with the regular divs. Like yesterday, H1 has a divergence presently but this time, Alan's. There is also a bearish Alan's div on M15. Notice that PA has done 33 pips already unlike yesterday that got only 20 pips. What is holding the bears at the moment is the H1 average at 2753. With the bear supports on M15 and M5 still looking solid, the H1 average may likely give way. If that happens, we should be testing 2707 first before 2680
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU H1 0108.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GU M15 0108C.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GU M5 0108C.png Size: 30 KB
  • #890
  • Jan 8, 2019 12:15am Jan 8, 2019 12:15am
Thanks for all the charts and replies guys, it's really great to see everyones points of view, definitely helps with the learning process.

I have posted 3 charts with my attempt at interpreting the situation, please feel free to criticise.

The one hour has a regular divergence, price is at the ema indicating indecision but the trend is up so we should still be aware of bullish (or should we be really looking for shorts or waiting for the ema to cross because of the bear div) the rsi is above the 50

The 15m has a bounce off the 1 hour ema with a bullish div ( or is this bear ) and has not crossed the ema

The 5m has bearish divergence but has since crossed the ema
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM15.png Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM5.png Size: 25 KB
life is a reflection of what we allow ourselves to see
  • #891
  • Jan 8, 2019 12:16am Jan 8, 2019 12:16am
In this long
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  • #892
  • Jan 8, 2019 1:33am Jan 8, 2019 1:33am
Quoting Riaanvw
In this long {image}
Congrats, what is an excellent trade! Oversold RSI with Alan's div M15 while price bouncing from MA on H1 makes easy +30 pips.
  • #893
  • Jan 8, 2019 1:57am Jan 8, 2019 1:57am
+30 Pips. 1ST trade should be from the div bar and then second trade from inside bar but I took both from the inside bar and a 3rd from the ema
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #894
  • Jan 8, 2019 2:02am Jan 8, 2019 2:02am
Battle of the Bulls vs Bears just above the H1 26EMA at the moment. Will be interesting to see if its continuation up, or the bears get their way.
  • #895
  • Jan 8, 2019 2:09am Jan 8, 2019 2:09am
OK you have my undivided attention for the evening...

Here is more information on Riaan's 15 min chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 54 KB
  • #896
  • Edited 3:58am Jan 8, 2019 2:14am | Edited 3:58am
Quoting Bydyke
{quote} The doyen himself! Welcome. We are all glad that you are back from the holidays. Forexianaires: another addition to our lexicon. Check out the previous ones: Bull support Bear support Average Swing high Average Swing Low Impulse Bar Two-bar test Alan's Divergence I agree with you. 2019 is going to be very juicy for all of us on this thread. Infact, the more confusion there is with Brexit the better for us all. Once again, welcome back.
You have omitted Hidden Divergence from the list and the two bar test
  • #897
  • Jan 8, 2019 2:17am Jan 8, 2019 2:17am
Hi Alan, Hope you had a great New years. Thanks for your time again

when we are into London open and price is sitting at the 1hr ema (like we are now) do you fall back to 15 min time frame to wait for divergence? or best to sit out still and wait for a direction from the hourly?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 22 KB
life is a reflection of what we allow ourselves to see
  • #898
  • Jan 8, 2019 2:18am Jan 8, 2019 2:18am
We are still learning hidden divergence Alan, and its significance. Were waiting for you to get back
  • #899
  • Jan 8, 2019 2:43am Jan 8, 2019 2:43am
Anyone going short? As far as I can tell it looks like we got Alan's divergence on H1 and M5 pointing south.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #900
  • Jan 8, 2019 2:54am Jan 8, 2019 2:54am
I already took just over 20 pips off that bearish divergence but I got out. The price action around the H1 26EMA (I draw that line on my 5M chart) hasn't convinced me yet that the bears will take control.

Other than the tiny drop in price to the average swing low at 1.27473 price action has been pretty muted since the London Open.
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