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The Swamp

  • #28,601
  • Jan 7, 2019 11:39am Jan 7, 2019 11:39am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} It's going to break up, looks very telegraphed now. Fx and equities all aligned, repositionning on FED.
u.s. bond 2.66, german bund 0.22. spread difference bond/bund 2.44
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #28,602
  • Jan 7, 2019 11:45am Jan 7, 2019 11:45am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i think u get another shot + some.. {image}
Cancelled
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #28,603
  • Jan 7, 2019 12:10pm Jan 7, 2019 12:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} u.s. bond 2.66, german bund 0.22. spread difference bond/bund 2.44
End of rates cycle has a lot of MT/LT implications for many portfolios. The reshuffling should give enough momentum to EU to visit the top of the MT range, although its "fair value" is probably below this top (for now) given current rate differentials imo.
  • #28,604
  • Jan 7, 2019 12:23pm Jan 7, 2019 12:23pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} End of rates cycle has a lot of MT/LT implications for many portfolios. The reshuffling should give enough momentum to EU to visit the top of the MT range, although its "fair value" is probably below this top (for now) given current rate differentials imo.
might be a buy after ny close.. sell before ny close cycle to follow
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #28,605
  • Jan 7, 2019 12:59pm Jan 7, 2019 12:59pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} might be a buy after ny close.. sell before ny close cycle to follow
Seems, we are going to 1550-1560 area without any retracement. All TFs are uptrend now. If closes above 1460, it will be the highest 2 months close
  • #28,606
  • Jan 7, 2019 2:33pm Jan 7, 2019 2:33pm
Comatose mode for hours at the top of the range instead of a retrace while indicators in the lower TFs are stretched, that says a lot imo.
and not in thin hours.
  • #28,607
  • Jan 7, 2019 2:37pm Jan 7, 2019 2:37pm
the month, week, and day closed bullish.. But I expect some sort of retrace. I look to buy it.. maybe 1413 1393.. eu should be in resistance and usdx near support.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #28,608
  • Jan 7, 2019 3:13pm Jan 7, 2019 3:13pm
Quoting gatorinla
the month, week, and day closed bullish.. But I expect some sort of retrace. I look to buy it.. maybe 1413 1393.. eu should be in resistance and usdx near support. {image}

yes clearly a resistance there but no reaction/rejection so far. Your area to load longs looks great, but I just feel it would sound like markets will give a second chance to those who missed the train. I already find 1.1448 too far for my taste. Would say 1.1464-1.1454 at best if expectations for an imminent break up are correct.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #28,609
  • Edited 3:26pm Jan 7, 2019 3:13pm | Edited 3:26pm
i got stopped out on the last trade. to be honest it was a stupid place to put a SL... I will short 1.1490... and target 1.1410... Looking at the charts, the Euro has closed really bullish and USDx really bearish... like gator says - there should be some sort of retracement, break 1.15 and i won't short - not for a while... the USDx is still in a bullish trend imo - there is room to go down, but i will look for reversal if we hit the support trendline on USDx

EDIT: Just to add, I am thinking of a short because USDx may have support at 95.55 which is 11 pips away - so around 1.15 is where we could see some reaction - stops will be slightly above this.
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  • #28,610
  • Jan 7, 2019 3:54pm Jan 7, 2019 3:54pm
Quoting micho
after the move yesterday, the market has been very predictable with this reversal. could it be this easy?
Attached Image
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #28,611
  • Jan 7, 2019 4:13pm Jan 7, 2019 4:13pm
Quoting micho
{quote} {image}
lol, when I you look at your avatar I feel you've eaten too many mushrooms.

PS : 1.2195 too far for me. I have MT top in the 1.18xx and everything above locked via rates differential until we fully price one cut in the US or one hike in the EZ, in that case I will have 1.2150.
  • #28,612
  • Jan 7, 2019 4:26pm Jan 7, 2019 4:26pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} lol, when I you look at your avatar I feel you've eaten too many mushrooms. PS : 1.2195 too far for me. I have MT top in the 1.18xx and everything above locked via rates differential until we fully price one cut in the US or one hike in the EZ, in that case I will have 1.2150.

i am trying to convince boulder to eat mushrooms

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post11849299

yes 1.2195 far which makes it yield alot of pips
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #28,613
  • Jan 7, 2019 4:30pm Jan 7, 2019 4:30pm
took one at 1.1483 to start
  • #28,614
  • Jan 7, 2019 4:54pm Jan 7, 2019 4:54pm
1/8/2019 levels....next to print..either 1490 or 1451....

RU R3 ----------1.1556
MP R2 ----------1.1541
FP R3 ----------1.1538
RU R2 ----------1.1519
WP R2 ----------1.1518
FP R2 ----------1.1505
RU R1 ----------1.1496
MP R1 ----------1.1490
FP R1 ----------1.1484
WP R1 ----------1.1473
FP PP ----------1.1451
RU S1 ----------1.1451
RU S2 ----------1.1429
FP S1 ----------1.1418
MP PP ----------1.1408
WP PP ----------1.1401
FP S2 ----------1.1397
RU S3 ----------1.1392
  • #28,615
  • Jan 7, 2019 4:58pm Jan 7, 2019 4:58pm
Ooh boulder I like your 1.1408 MP. My tp 1.1410.

So probably a bounce here
  • #28,616
  • Jan 7, 2019 5:10pm Jan 7, 2019 5:10pm
Quoting jaylovin
Ooh boulder I like your 1.1408 MP. My tp 1.1410. So probably a bounce here
Hope so too.. I have been scalping shorts all day......,,
  • #28,617
  • Jan 7, 2019 5:48pm Jan 7, 2019 5:48pm
1451 reached....next to print.. either 1429 or 1490...

RU R2 ----------1.1519
WP R2 ----------1.1518
FP R2 ----------1.1505
RU R1 ----------1.1496
MP R1 ----------1.1490
FP R1 ----------1.1484
WP R1 ----------1.1473
FP PP ----------1.1451
RU S1 ----------1.1451
RU S2 ----------1.1429
FP S1 ----------1.1418
MP PP ----------1.1408
WP PP ----------1.1401
FP S2 ----------1.1397
RU S3 ----------1.1392
  • #28,618
  • Jan 7, 2019 7:02pm Jan 7, 2019 7:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
the month, week, and day closed bullish.. But I expect some sort of retrace. I look to buy it.. maybe 1413 1393.. eu should be in resistance and usdx near support. {image}
I thought retrace.. not sure how deep. 1393 or 1413 has a natural attraction. the current retrace is 1/2 way to 1398. Day pp 1418

chart after,, before is last/linked post. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...7#post11855297
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #28,619
  • Jan 7, 2019 9:18pm Jan 7, 2019 9:18pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i think u get another shot + some.. {image}
Was a perfect level
Cancelled at last minute
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #28,620
  • Edited 11:12pm Jan 7, 2019 10:02pm | Edited 11:12pm
Pending sell at 1461 *CANCELLED*
Focus.
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