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Trading Institutional Order Flow

  • #7,021
  • Jan 3, 2019 9:46pm Jan 3, 2019 9:46pm
Quoting MiyagiFX
Hey Guys, Happy New Year to you all. Thought I would share my first trade of the year with you all. This is the best trade I have taken in my short trading career and a great way to start the new year off...start as we mean to go on. USDCAD Weekly: Testing W1 SZ that was the origin of a large fall in the market. No longs permitted, allowed to look for shorting opportunities if they present themselves. {image} Daily: Testing 1st LOL SZ, either wait for the upper SZ to be reached or wait for confirmation on the 4h at the lower D1 SZ. We got a confirmation...
That’s a great trade and very well explained thank you.
  • #7,022
  • Jan 4, 2019 1:52am Jan 4, 2019 1:52am
Quoting MiyagiFX
{quote} Ah fair enough, any reason why you do 1:2...have you always used this ratio for counter trend or seen through backtesting/trading that this is a better ratio to use. Yes the markets can do anything they please. All we have to do is play probabilities and stick to our rules.
I'm trading futures market on very low tfs, and most of the time I get 1:2 before stopping out
  • #7,023
  • Jan 4, 2019 2:51am Jan 4, 2019 2:51am
Quoting MiyagiFX
Hey Guys, Happy New Year to you all. Thought I would share my first trade of the year with you all. This is the best trade I have taken in my short trading career and a great way to start the new year off...start as we mean to go on. USDCAD Weekly: Testing W1 SZ that was the origin of a large fall in the market. No longs permitted, allowed to look for shorting opportunities if they present themselves. {image} Daily: Testing 1st LOL SZ, either wait for the upper SZ to be reached or wait for confirmation on the 4h at the lower D1 SZ. We got a confirmation...

great trade..

here is my analysis but on the conservative side meaning I am waiting for the daily demand be removed and now I am looking to short BEFORE it hits daily demand.
your entry trade is the aggressive approach (Entry timeframe) that doesn't mean that its bad its just a different approach.


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"Fall in love with the process and the results will follow" - Bradley Whitf
  • #7,024
  • Jan 4, 2019 3:23am Jan 4, 2019 3:23am
Quoting T4i
{quote} great trade.. here is my analysis but on the conservative side meaning I am waiting for the daily demand be removed and now I am looking to short BEFORE it hits daily demand. your entry trade is the aggressive approach (Entry timeframe) that doesn't mean that its bad its just a different approach. {image}
Hi T4i,

Thanks for your perspective on the pair.

I originally approached this pair similar to you, I said to myself I want to see the momentum TL to break on the daily because we were in the lower DBD LOL SZ so I wanted to see the sellers on the daily proving which zone they were coming in at. But then I saw on the 4h that price was struggling to break higher and we had that TL break. With that being said I had a line drawn at 1.35562 which was the lowest low of that buying zone (not demand) you have shown, and would have liked to have seen a solid close below that price like you before setting the trade....however I was going to bed at the time that 4h candle confirmed a break in the 4h TL and was feeling rather aggressive so I placed the trade, woke up with my order filled and just waited to see what happened.

There are many ways to approach this trade, I took the very aggressive road with this one, you waited for a more conservative trade. Is one of us wrong...no...it’s just how each individual approaches the set ups. Profit or expense...there is always something to learn from the trade.
  • #7,025
  • Jan 4, 2019 3:39am Jan 4, 2019 3:39am
Quoting MiyagiFX
{quote} Hi T4i, Thanks for your perspective on the pair. I originally approached this pair similar to you, I said to myself I want to see the momentum TL to break on the daily because we were in the lower DBD LOL SZ so I wanted to see the sellers on the daily proving which zone they were coming in at. But then I saw on the 4h that price was struggling to break higher and we had that TL break. With that being said I had a line drawn at 1.35562 which was the lowest low of that buying zone (not demand) you have shown, and would have liked to have seen...
exactly well said bro
"Fall in love with the process and the results will follow" - Bradley Whitf
  • #7,026
  • Jan 4, 2019 7:47am Jan 4, 2019 7:47am
Hi guys, want to share my first trade in 2019
S&P 500 futures short from 5m supply inside 15m/1h supply's, 1:2 R:R

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btw Dow Jones chart looks just same
  • #7,027
  • Jan 4, 2019 8:05am Jan 4, 2019 8:05am
Quoting ykn4f
Hi guys, want to share my first trade in 2019 S&P 500 futures short from 5m supply inside 15m/1h supply's, 1:2 R:R {image} btw Dow Jones chart looks just same
Where were your entry and exit....what 5min SZ did you trade? I can’t see a good SZ to have traded...
  • #7,028
  • Jan 4, 2019 8:09am Jan 4, 2019 8:09am
Quoting MiyagiFX
{quote} Where were your entry and exit....what 5min SZ did you trade? I can’t see a good SZ to have traded...
Here 5m chart
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  • #7,029
  • Jan 4, 2019 8:17am Jan 4, 2019 8:17am
Quoting ykn4f
{quote} Here 5m chart {image}
Now who’s the aggressive one ! You took a set and forget trade, didn’t even wait for confirmation....

That zone you traded at was only a fresh zone, it was not original/authentic. So if you are trading countertrend, we should only set and forget at original/authentic zones, or what for confirmation.

Congrats on the trade bro
  • #7,030
  • Jan 4, 2019 8:33am Jan 4, 2019 8:33am
Quoting MiyagiFX
{quote} Now who’s the aggressive one ! You took a set and forget trade, didn’t even wait for confirmation.... That zone you traded at was only a fresh zone, it was not original/authentic. So if you are trading countertrend, we should only set and forget at original/authentic zones, or what for confirmation. Congrats on the trade bro
But it's not counter trend trade, we just lost momentum on 1H, but trend is still down, we didn't took out 2 supply's or 1 supply and have ability to draw momentum line, or have 3 rbr in row to say trend is changed

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And when price arrived to 1H supply there was 2 zones I watched, when I saw how price reacted to 1st one and then dropped just before second one i knew there was some sell orders left, take a look

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  • #7,031
  • Jan 4, 2019 9:05am Jan 4, 2019 9:05am
Quoting ykn4f
{quote} But it's not counter trend trade, we just lost momentum on 1H, but trend is still down, we didn't took out 2 supply's or 1 supply and have ability to draw momentum line, or have 3 rbr in row to say trend is changed {image} And when price arrived to 1H supply there was 2 zones I watched, when I saw how price reacted to 1st one and then dropped just before second one i knew there was some sell orders left, take a look {image}
It is counter trend on the 5 min chart though as the momentum and trend is up. Regardless of the trend/momentum on your Curve TF, you are counter trading on your entry TF. There is higher probability of a sell trade at curve TF SZ if the HTF trend and momentum are down, you will still most likely be counter trend trading at those HTF SZ on your entry TF and we should wait for confirmation always, unless there is an original/authentic zone to set and forget at.
  • #7,032
  • Jan 4, 2019 7:37pm Jan 4, 2019 7:37pm
Quoting MiyagiFX
{quote} It is counter trend on the 5 min chart though as the momentum and trend is up. Regardless of the trend/momentum on your Curve TF, you are counter trading on your entry TF. There is higher probability of a sell trade at curve TF SZ if the HTF trend and momentum are down, you will still most likely be counter trend trading at those HTF SZ on your entry TF and we should wait for confirmation always, unless there is an original/authentic zone to set and forget at.
So you saying 1h supply in down trend can't stop 5m up trend if momentum is broken and zone itself not original on 1h picture? I mean very low probability

Guys, any other opinions, maybe Akt?
Is this trading setup was bad? I know winning trade doesn't make it good trade so comments are welcome
  • #7,033
  • Jan 5, 2019 2:00am Jan 5, 2019 2:00am
Hi Happy new year :-)

well it was aggressive for my taste..

if we set and forget its best when we follow the trend and in my opinion we do not S&F in countertrends.

on the 15min the move away was poor yes it to out demand but I would like to see the departure stronger.

like I said its my opinion :-)

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"Fall in love with the process and the results will follow" - Bradley Whitf
  • #7,034
  • Edited Jan 6, 2019 2:05am Jan 5, 2019 9:36pm | Edited Jan 6, 2019 2:05am
Hi traders , Happy new year ,

Some good looking bearish bias on USDJPY and a promising countertrend for USDCHF
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  • #7,035
  • Jan 6, 2019 5:37am Jan 6, 2019 5:37am
Is there someone that backtest a trading system with entries based on DOM/time&sales and how you do it?
  • #7,036
  • Jan 6, 2019 3:14pm Jan 6, 2019 3:14pm
Quoting haluk
Hi traders , Happy new year , Some good looking bearish bias on USDJPY and a promising countertrend for USDCHF {image} {image}
Hi haluk. I think so...
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I am sorry, i speak English a little bit
  • #7,037
  • Jan 6, 2019 3:14pm Jan 6, 2019 3:14pm
Quoting haluk
Hi traders , Happy new year , Some good looking bearish bias on USDJPY and a promising countertrend for USDCHF {image} {image}
Hi haluk,

I think it would help everybody here if you did a top down analysis of your trade ideas rather than showing just the potential trade on your entry TF, that way people can learn and understand your reasoning behind it and maybe spot something you have missed that may make the trade lower probability, or even agree with your ideas...

Thanks
  • #7,038
  • Jan 6, 2019 9:54pm Jan 6, 2019 9:54pm
Quoting MiyagiFX
{quote} Hi haluk, I think it would help everybody here if you did a top down analysis of your trade ideas rather than showing just the potential trade on your entry TF, that way people can learn and understand your reasoning behind it and maybe spot something you have missed that may make the trade lower probability, or even agree with your ideas... Thanks
Hi Miyagi , Sure, Here are my multi-tf exercises for them ,
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  • #7,039
  • Jan 7, 2019 2:30am Jan 7, 2019 2:30am
Stay Discipline Traders, Process Over Outcome, Quality over Quantity, Manage Risk/Emotions. GL
  • #7,040
  • Jan 7, 2019 1:36pm Jan 7, 2019 1:36pm
Idea on AUD/USD
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