Elliottwave-Forecast.com - Official Thread w/ Analysis Blogs

Oil: Impulsive Elliott Wave Structure In Play

Elliott Wave outlook in Oil (CL_F) suggests that the move lower from 10/3 high ($76.9) remains in progress as a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure. Down from $76.9, Primary wave ((1)) ended at $65.74, Primary wave ((2)) ended at $67.95, and Primary wave ((3)) remains in play. Internal of Primary wave ((3)) also unfolded as 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure of lesser degree where Intermediate wave (4) of ((3)) ended at $54.55.

Oil is currently in the final Intermediate wave (5) of ((3)) move lower which should also complete Primary wave ((3)). Internal of Intermediate wave (5) subdivides as another impulse Elliott Wave structure of lesser degree (Minor). Minor wave 1 of (5) ended at $50.08, Minor wave 2 of (5) ended at $54.26, Minor wave 3 of (5) ended at $42.36, and Minor wave 4 of (5) is proposed complete at $47. Near term, while Oil stays below $47, but more importantly below $54.26, expect for more downside in Oil.

Oil 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Elliott Wave Analysis: Forecasting Lower Lows on the Dow Jones Futures

Welcome traders, here we will look at a couple of Dow Jones futures chart and how profitable it can be to trade with our philosophy and basic Elliott Wave analysis.
Below its a chart from December 19th presented to our members. At this point in time, we called for an incomplete sequence to the downside after the low of October 29 had been broken on the 10th of December; hence our bearish sequence stamp. With our bearish sequence stamp, our members expect new lows are expected to come. From the 24844 pivot, an impulsive 5 wave move to the downside was spotted with an extended 3rd wave. The impulsive move was followed by a noticeable pullback, which we believed to be an A-B-C flat type of correction. With wave A & B defined we are able to define our blue box target areas. Using Fibonacci extension levels the area of 24292-24001 was the target to hit.
With our aggressive approach, our members are advised to sell the index in 3, 7 or 11 swing bounces once a bearish sequence stamp and target area are established. So, once the 3 swing A-B-C bounce reached the target area, we favored the selling.
Dow Jones Futures 12.19.2018 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis

What happened next, is the best type of reaction we can get off of our target areas. Below you can see an updated chart of the index from December 21st. Notice how the index, from the blue box target area, ripped to the downside breaking the low of wave A; previously labeled as wave (A). When a previous low is broken, a new equal leg target area is derived. In this case, Fibonacci extension levels were used off of the A & B wave pivots, giving us our new target area of 22721-22399.
Dow Jones Futures 12.21.2018 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis

*Note : Keep in mind the market is dynamic and the presented view can always change depending on the price action.
If you liked what you read or if you are interested on the Elliott Wave methodology and how it can work consistently with our philosophy, become a member and join our community today. As always, new comers can always try us out for 14 days with our Trial Plan. And, for this month only, we are offering a 2 for 1 End of Year promotion.

Trading success is a journey and you will never be perfect at it, but you can always master your reaction to the market.

Will Yen Continue to Outperform in 2019?

Care to guess what is the best performing major currency in 2018? Chances are you will say that it’s the US Dollar. Although US Dollar is doing pretty well this year, the best performing currency is in fact the Japanese Yen. You can see in the table below that despite the Dollar Index rallying 4.9% as of Dec 27th, the Yen has outperformed the U.S Dollar by 1.43%. We can also see the U.S. Dollar has rallied against all the other major currencies, but the Japanese Yen has rallied even at a greater percentage against the same currency. For example, EURUSD has dropped 5.08%, meaning that U.S Dollar has rallied 5.08% against European Dollar this year. However, EURJPY dropped 6.5%, which means that Japanese Yen has rallied at a greater percentage against the European dollar.

The market as always is a discount mechanism and it discounts events several months and years in advance. The BOJ (Bank of Japan) has embarked in a massive quantitative easing since 2013 and it’s the only major central banks that still maintains the program. The Fed has started to unwind the quantitative easing and normalize the balance sheet while the ECB has stopped the program.
BOJ is caught in a conundrum. The 2% inflation target remains as elusive as ever, and the recent selloff in Oil should further damp the outlook. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda admitted that BOJ must weigh in the negative cost of prolonged monetary easing. For example, it can hurt financial institutions’ profits and discourage them from boosting lending. The change in attitude underscores the rising hurdle for meeting BOJ’s price goal. Minutes of the October rate review shows a rift within the BOJ as board members disagree on the prolonged easing.
Last month, Kuroda also said that Japan no longer needs to “decisively implement a large-scale policy to overcome deflation.” This is perhaps the most specific hint that BOJ is preparing to exit from the most aggressive quantitative easing experiment. Couple this with the Fed’s rate hike path running out of steam, the Yen likely can continue to get stronger in 2019. This is the scenario where BOJ reduces stimulus as the Fed pauses. An anticipated end to BOJ’s negative interest rate policy in 2019 should make the yen more attractive.
Below we will take a look at Elliott Wave outlook for two Yen crosses: GBPJPY and EURJPY. We will check to see what the technical tells us about the outlook for Yen pairs in 2019.
GBPJPY Daily Elliott Wave Outlook 12.27.2018

GBPJPY Daily Elliott Wave chart above suggests that cycle from 2.2.2018 high shows an incomplete bearish sequence towards the target of 129.1 – 133.06. This view is valid as far as pair remains below 9.21.2018 high (149.78) which is the invalidation level. The decline from 2.2.2018 high is a textbook 7 swing double three Elliott Wave structure (WXY) This chart confirms that Japanese Yen will continue to outperform against Pound Sterling in 2019.
CADJPY Daily Elliott Wave Outlook 12.27.2018

CADJPY Daily Elliott Wave chart above also shows that cycle from 9.15.2017 high shows an incomplete bearish sequence towards the target of 75.49 – 78.11. This view is valid as far as pair remains below 10.3.2018 high (89.18) which is the invalidation level. The decline from 9.15.2017 high is also 7 swing double three Elliott Wave structure (WXY). The first leg Primary wave ((W)) unfolded as a Flat Elliott Wave structure (A)-(B)-(C) with 3-3-5 structure. This chart confirms that Japanese Yen will continue to outperform against Canadian Dollar in 2019.
In conclusion, both GBPJPY and CADJPY Elliott Wave outlook confirms the thesis that Japanese Yen can continue to outperform. The market price action has spoken and the current strength in Japanese Yen discounts the future in which BOJ reduces stimulus and the Fed pauses the rate hike.
If you enjoy this article, you can try our service 14 days without commitment to receive regular Elliott Wave chart updates in 4 time frames, as well as live session, chat room, live trading room, and more. Click here –> I want to get 14 days FREE Trial

OIL Elliott Wave Forecasting The Decline

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the charts of OIL published in members area of the website. As our members know, we were calling for decline in OIL from November 2018. As of right now the commodity is correcting the cycle from the 26.18 low. Proposed pull back is unfolding as Expanded Elliott Wave Flat Structure, when Oil still has scope to keep extending lower. We advised clients to avoid buying OIL and keep on favoring the short side. In the charts below, we’re going to explain the Elliott Wave structure and forecast.
OIL Elliott Wave 1 Hour Asia Chart 11.16.2018
As we can see at the charts below OIL is doing short term recovery that is unfolding as Elliott Wave double three pattern. It’s expected to make another leg up to complete 7 swings in proposed bounce. Recovery has scope to reach 58.25 + area ( blue box) , where we would like to be sellers. We recommended members to avoid buying OIL and keep selling short term rallies in 3,7,11 swings for further downside. Stop Loss of the trade is a break above 1.618 Fibonacci extension (59.87)

OIL Elliott Wave 1 Hour New York Midday Chart 11.16.2018
We got the proposed leg up , 7th swing as expected. However sellers appeared early and pushed the price down before proposed area was reached. The price has missed blue box by a few points. Now wave ((4)) recovery looks completed at 57.99 high, and we are calling for further weakness. We need to see break of previous low to confirm next leg down is in progress.

OIL Elliott Wave 1 Hour London Chart 11.21.2018
The price has held below 57.99 peak and we got proposed decline. Eventually OIL has made new short term low, confirming next leg down is in progress. Now the commodity has opened new cycle to the downside and it can be sold in 3,7,11 swings against the 57.99 peak. We don’t advise buying OIL and favor the short side against the 57.99 peak.

OIL Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 11.28.2018
The price has held invalidation level at 57.99 and we got a nice decline as expected. Short term recovery wave ((4)) has reached its equal legs at 52.48. It found sellers immediately and gave us nice reaction from the blue box. Members who are in short positions from there should be already risk free. We are calling wave ((4)) recovery completed.

OIL Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 11.30.2018
We got new low in OIL, however buyers are also strong at this stage and we’re getting choppy price action. We see possibilities of more short term strength toward 52.52-54.28 area

OIL Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 12.08.2018
Wave ((4)) recovery has taken form of Elliott Wave Flat pattern and completed at 54.59 . Now as far as the price holds below 54.59 peak, we expect further decline.
Keep in mind market is very dynamic and proposed view could have ended in the mean time. You can check most recent updates in the Membersip Area of the Website . Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.

Elliott Wave Forecast
We cover 78 instruments in total, but not every chart is trading recommendation. We present Official Trading Recommendations in Live Trading Room. If not a member yet, Sign Up for Free 14 days Trial now and get access to new trading opportunities. Through time we have developed a very respectable trading strategy which defines Entry, Stop Loss and Take Profit levels with high accuracy.
Welcome to Elliott Wave Forecast !

World Indices: When to Start Buying Them Again

The World Indices have shown a sideways to lower year in 2018. The last Quarter alone World Indices lost their gains, for example, the SPX or the Dow Jones. Other World indices peaked earlier than others this year and some of them did not produce new highs again.
There is a lot of speculation going around the Market which results in many questions which need to be answered. We can hear a lot of experts calling different reasons and scenarios. It goes from a Political crisis to the Trade war with China, to the Feds raising interest rates and many more assumptions. However, the reality is that neither of the mentioned reasons can justify the latest moves in our opinion.
The Market as we always say is a combination of time frames, cycles, and sequences. And the only thing that matters is the way Market Makers (Smart money) trade them. We understand this is a big secret which even people in the media or in the public don’t even talk about it.
The way the Market works is what we call Market Nature and goes from Inflection areas to inflection areas. It is very simple. The Market makers know those inflection areas because they are doing the Market and consequently, they know when to turn and when to push one side over the other. The World Indices are not just the SPX or the Dow Jones. World Indices are the Indices across the World. We at www.Elliottwave-Forecast.com always relate instruments with other similar instruments, which is called market correlation. That allows us to follow the Instruments which are showing the clearest structure. Then we relate them with the rest and make the Elliott wave counts accordingly.
Many believe in the Elliott Wave Theory. We are using and practicing the Theory as well every day. But we understand that Elliott Wave on its own is not a reliable tool. We believe that the Market Makers do not use The Elliott Wave Theory to trade. They use sequences, cycles and relate them across the Market. They have the power to make the Market.
Coming to the recent decline. The decline which we are seeing is very Technical and can be seen across other markets as well which many traders don’t even recognize. Everything started in January 2018. The World Indices have reached a stage in which a decent pullback was expected. In the following chart, you can see the Nikkei weekly chart presented to members in our Yearly Forecast earlier this Year. You can see that we expected a decent pullback in the Instrument.

Nikkei Weekly Chart published at our Yearly Forecast


The Blue Box which you can see in the chart above. Is the 61.8% Extension area within a Bullish Grand Supercycle. That area was reached already earlier this year. Also in other Indices like the FTSE100, SPX or the Dow Jones YM reached their respective areas. Therefore, we knew that 2018 was about to be a tough year for the World Indices and we told members that will be like 2015 over again. We presented this comment to our members at the Yearly Forecast:
“Since bottoming in 2009, the rally in Nikkei from 2009 low shows a 5 swing sequence, favoring further upside. Nikkei has now reached the area of 23576 – 25643 where the fifth swing can end, and we are calling swing #5 ended at 24200. Nikkei is expected to pullback in the 6th swing in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct the cycle from 2.2016 low. The expected correction in the 6th swing is similar in nature to the correction in 2013 (the 2nd swing correction) and then more upside in 7th swing. We don’t like selling Nikkei and prefer buying dips in 3-7-11 swing against 2.2016 low.”
Another quote in our Yearly Forecast stated the following:
“In conclusion, 2018 should be an interesting year for the Market, seeing the charts we can expected a temporary peak in the Indices. We believe the cycle from 2016 should be ending this year and a pull back like the one seen in 2013 should be seen before we get more upside in the Indices. Indices dips should find buyers in 3-7-11 swings against 2016 lows.”
As you can see, we already warned our members of a temporary peak in 2018 and that a decent pullback should follow. The next chart represented the Nikkei sequences overlayed with others World Indices showing the expected Pullback.

Nikkei vs World Indices Weekly Chart

So as you can see, we already warned our members that the 2016 cycle was ending and a pullback was coming.
For us, it is very clear that the World Indices decline is very Technical and was expected overall. With that said the decline has nothing to do with interest rates, Political environment or Trade War. The decline is happening, because the World Indices reached the areas in which by Nature the Market pulls back. It was easy to see and expect.
The White House can come and try to spin the decline and show the positive face and facts but the reality is that Market Nature, sequences, cycles are still calling for more downside. Stocks like BABA and XOM are the important players now and they are presenting the floor for the Market again to rally. Those have the clearest structure.
Elliott Wave Theory counts can be adjusted in second. But Sequences cannot, and they work in higher perfection than the Theory itself. The Sequences are clear and we are waiting for BABA and XOM to reach their respective extreme areas. And once they reach their extreme. The World Indices should rally again because, they are all trading at same cycles, sequences and all are related to each other. Sequences and cycles rule the Market.
The following chart shows the BABA sequences from the 06/05/18 peak. This stock is supporting the idea of World Indices still trading lower against 12/3/18 peak.

BABA Daily Sequence Chart

In the last chart you can see an overlay of SPX, BABA and the Nikkei Index. All are trading in the direction lower. And once BABA reached the 88.35-68.98 area (blue box) it will be yet the time again for us to buy the World Indices again.

SPX overlayed with BABA and Nikkei Daily Chart


We have learned over the Years to relate the Market with other correlating Instruments because that is the only way to get an edge. The Indices are not correcting the Grand Supercycle yet. They either have been correcting the 2016 cycle or the Supercycle. Anyway, they will offer us again a great opportunity to buy. Those whose are saying the economy is strong, they will be ending been right, because the sequences are supporting that fact. Stocks are having a very good price and the Grand Supercycle correction still need to wait. The chances that it is ending happening now is small, it can be seen through stocks like BAC because the stock would then go below zero which the chances are very small. We understand how the MARKET makers trade, so we follow them. And not the news events, Political world or Trade Wars. We at Elliott Wave Forecast trade like Smart Money.

Elliott Wave Analysis: Palladium’s Target Area Reaction

Welcome traders, today we will look at a couple of Palladium futures (PA #F) charts. The metal reached one of our blue target areas and react perfectly to our expectations. This will show you how profitable and efficient it can be to trade with our philosophy and basic Elliott Wave analysis.
First of all, we start with Palladium futures’ 45 minute chart from December 23rd presented to our members. At the time, we maintained a bullish perspective due to our Elliott Wave analysis. Our count suggested an ending diagonal cycle waiting for a final 5th wave up. Also, a bullish sequence stamp was presented on a larger time frame. This was due to the October 23rd high broken on November 15th. Consequently, this increasingly enforced ‘the right side’ of the market; hence opening higher probabilities of reaching newer highs.
With our aggressive approach, our members are encouraged to act on our target areas with the right side of the market. Furthermore, our approach unquestionably takes a trading opportunity when a bullish/bearish stamp is also present. Although we had no stamp in 45 minute time frame, but we do have a bullish sequence stamp in the 4 hour to back up the upside trend.
Palladium 12.23.2018 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis

Below you can see an updated chart of the instrument from December 28th. Notice how the metal reacted off of the blue box target area and resumed the upside. The area of 1160.74-1140.13 was calculated using the the Fibonacci extension tool, in this particular case, off of wave ((w)) & ((x)). This is what we call the ‘equal leg area’ where we sell or buy depending on the market.
A mapped entry, an invalidation level set up, the right side, sequences, add up to great trading opportunities. Above all, waiting for the right signals proved to be successful and we got the proposed reaction as expected.
Palladium 12.28.2018 1 Hour Chart Elliott Wave Analysis

*Note : Keep in mind the market is dynamic and the presented view might have changed after the post was published.
If you liked what you read or if you are interested on the Elliott Wave methodology and how it can work consistently with our bullish/bearish sequence method, become a member and join our community today. Visit us at Elliott Wave Forecast and as always, new comers can always try us out for 14 days with our Trial Plan.
Trading success is a journey and you will never be perfect at it, but you can always master your reaction to the market.

Bullish Outlook in Euro Cross

Six years ago in 2012, Euro zone was in the midst of crisis, with bailouts of Greece pushing the Euro to the verge of a collapse. Peripheral European countries like Greece, Portugal, Italy were unable to sell government bonds without offering significant yield. In order to convince international investor, ECB President Mario Draghi back in July 26, 2012 famously made the remark: “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.” ECB then announced a program to buy the bonds of distressed member countries. It never ended up using this program as the promise was enough to calm investors. It eventually launched a bond buying (QE) program in 2015. However, the Euro Zone’s peripheral yields have already stabilized by then as chart below shows:

Fast forward to today, ECB has confirmed on 13 December that it would end the Quantitative Easing program after almost 4 years. The bank has also left its guidance on interest rate intact. Interest rate will stay unchanged at least through the summer of 2019 or longer. ECB will also continue to reinvest the proceeds from maturing securities for as long as necessary. So is Quantitative Easing successful? At the outset, it helped to improve the region’s growth, stabilize financial market (bond, currency and equities market). It’s however too early to judge the long term implication.
In the chart below, we will look at a Euro cross pair (EURAUD). The pair looks bullish and we can see that the QE in 2015 did not really weaken Euro much further. Now that the Euro Zone has stabilized and the program ended, there’s a chance that the pair can continue the bullish move in 2019.
Weekly Elliott Wave Chart of EURAUD

Weekly Elliott Wave chart of EURAUD above shows that pair has a higher high sequence from 2.22.2017 low. If it breaks above Aug 21.2015 high (1.6585), it will show a larger degree bullish sequence from Aug 2, 2012 low. The rally from Aug 2, 2012 low is unfolding in a double three Elliott Wave structure. A double three Elliott Wave structure is a 7 swing structure, labelled as WXY. This structure suggests that EURAUD should continue to trend higher as far as it stays above 1.533 in first degree, and 1.36 in second degree. Potential 100% target area to the upside in wave (y) comes at 1.859 – 1.977.
It should be interesting to see how this pair affects other Euro pairs. If this pair moves as expected above, then it argues that Euro can be doing pretty well in the first half of 2019 if not the entire year. To get more Elliott Wave Analysis in 4 time frames for 78 instrument, you can click here –> 14 days FREE Trial. We are also still running a 2 for 1 promotion in first week of January where you can get 2 months subscription for the price of 1. Click here to subscribe –> 2-for-1 Promotion

Elliott Wave Analysis: Further Downside Expected in GBPUSD

Short term Elliott Wave view in GBPUSD shows that rally to 1.2816 ended Intermediate wave (4). Internal of that rally unfolded as a triple three Elliott Wave structure. Minor wave W ended at 1..2687, Minor wave X ended at 1.2528, Minor wave Y ended at 1.2739, second Minor wave X ended at 1.2614, and Minor wave Z ended a 1.2816. Decline from there ended at 1.2437 in Minute wave ((a)) as a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure.

Down from 1.2816, Minutte wave (i) ended at 1.2717, Minutte wave (ii) ended at 1.2773, Minutte wave (iii) ended at 1.258, Minutte wave (iv) ended at 1.2616, and Minutte wave (v) ended at 1.2437. Near term, expect pair to correct decline from 12/31 high (1.2816) within Minute wave ((b)) in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the decline resumes. We don’t like buying the pair with the right side tag showing lower and expect sellers to appear and pair to extend lower as far as pivot at 1.2816 stays intact.

GBPUSD 1 Hour Asia Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

ROKU ElliottWave Corrective Structure Suggesting a Recovery

ROKU investors had great hopes for 2018 as the streaming TV platform continued it outstanding growth in addition to its stock price surging to new all time highs. However in just 3 months, the stock erased all gains to end up with -40% similar to the rest of stock market in 2018.
The company earning report and steady growth attracted all type of investors and Hedge Funds interest in the stock grow as their number increased significantly in the previous quarter as we can see in this graphic.

Can ROKU recover in 2019 and turn the table around ?
The stock rally since IPO failed to achieve an impulsive 5 waves advance and ended up as 3 waves Zigzag structure. The take profit took place at the blue box area $72 – $82 which triggered the sell-Off.
The decline from October peak is taking the shape of a 7 swings move and it reached the measured Fibonacci target at 100%-$123.6 area $30.6 – $23.8. The pattern is an Elliott Wave corrective structure called Double Three which ideally would produce in this case at least a bounce to the upside to correct the previous cycle.
ROKU Daily Chart 1.2.2019

Consequently, as long as ROKU remain above its IPO low $15.75 then it will be looking for a recovery toward $50 – $60 then the stock can decide if the new cycle can take it higher toward $88 and above or a larger move lower will follow.
Get more trading and investing ideas for the Stock Market by trying out our services 14 days to learn how to trade our blue boxes using the 3, 7 or 11 swings sequence. You will get access to our 78 instruments updated in 4 different time frames, Live Trading & Analysis Session done by our Expert Analysts every day, 24-hour chat room support and much more.

Elliott Wave View: EURAUD Bullish Sequence Favors More Upside

Elliott Wave view in EURAUD shows that the decline to 1.5337 low ended wave b. Rally from there unfolded as a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure. Up from 1.5337 low, Wave (1) ended at 1.5886, wave (2) ended at 1.566, wave (3) ended at 1.6453, wave (4) ended at 1.6184, and wave (5) ended at 1.6794. The 5 waves move from 1.5337 low ended wave ((1)) of a higher degree.

Pair is currently in wave ((2)) pullback to correct the rally from 12.3.2018 low (1.5337). The correction is expected to unfold in 3, 7, or 11 swing and potential area is 1.568 – 1.6069 (50 – 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement). While the dips stay above 1.5337, pair should then resume higher again. The move to 1.5337 also broke the previous high at 10.11.2018 (1.6357), therefore creating a bullish sequence from 2.22.2017 low favoring further upside.

EURAUD 4 Hour Asia Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Elliott Wave View looking for SPX Rally to Fail

Short term Elliott Wave view in SPX suggests that the decline to 2346.58 ended wave (3). The Index is currently correcting in wave (4) as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from 2346.58, wave W ended at 2520.27, wave X ended at 2443.96, and wave Y remains in progress towards 2619.58 – 2727.95 area before Index resumes lower or pullback in 3 waves at least.

A double three Elliott Wave structure is a complex correction in which we have two Elliott Wave corrective structures together. In this case, wave W subdivides as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where wave ((a)) ended at 2467.76, wave ((b)) ended at 2397.94, and wave ((c)) of W ended at 2520.27. Wave X subdivides as a double three of lesser degree where wave ((w)) ended at 2467.47, wave ((x)) ended at 2519.49, and wave ((y)) ended at 2443.96.

Wave Y is proposed to be unfolding as a zigzag where wave ((a)) ended at 2538.07, wave ((b)) ended at 2522.13, and wave ((c)) of Y is in progress towards 2619.58 – 2727.95 before ending the entire wave (4) correction. Expect sellers to appear once wave (4) correction is over at the blue box area for a 3 waves pullback at least.

SPX 1 Hour Asia Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Elliott Wave Analysis: Impulse Move Suggests More Downside in USDCAD

Short term Elliott Wave view in USDCAD shows that the decline from 12/31/2018 high (1.3669) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 1.3669, Wave 1 ended at 1.3563, wave 2 ended at 1.3662, wave 3 ended at 1.3263, and wave 4 ended at 1.3323. We can see a momentum divergence with momentum showing a higher low while price showing a lower low.

This suggests that wave 5 is near complete and we can soon see a 3 waves rally to correct the decline from 12/31/2018 high. To get an estimate on how far the bounce can go, it should ideally end around 50 – 61.8% fibonacci retracement of the decline from 1.3669. This however is more of a guideline and not a rule. The actual rally can be deeper or shallower than the 50 – 61.8% retracement guide. The most important level remains to be 1.3669.

As the move lower from 1.3669 is impulsive, the bounce should fail below 1.3669 and give us at least another 5 waves down to end a zigzag Elliott Wave structure at minimum. The medium term outlook therefore favors further downside although short term we may see a bounce soon.

USDCAD 1 Hour Asia Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Short Term Elliott Wave View in Oil Favoring More Upside

Oil’s (CL_F) short term Elliott Wave view shows that the decline from 10/3/2018 high ended as 5 waves impulse in wave a at $42.41. The cycle from 10/3/2018 high has ended and Oil should now see at least a 3 waves rally. The rally from $42.41 is unfolding as Elliott Wave zigzag structure where wave ((A)) is currently in progress.

An internal of a zigzag is 5-3-5, which means that wave ((A)) should subdivide in 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from $42.41, wave (1) ended at $47, wave (2) ended at $44.35, and wave (3) ended at $52.58. Expect a pullback in wave (4) which ideally ends at 23.6 – 38.2 Fibonacci Retracement of wave (3) at $49.4 – $50.62. Oil should then rally 1 more leg higher in wave (5) to end 5 waves up and complete wave ((A)). After wave ((A)) is complete, it should pullback in wave ((B)) to correct rally from 12/25/2018 low ($42.41) in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes again in wave ((C)).

Oil 1 Hour Asia Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Elliott Wave View: Indian Rupee (USDINR) Should Turn Lower

Short term Elliott Wave view in USDINR suggests that the decline to 69.56 low ended wave (W) and bounce to 72.56 high ended wave (X). Internal of wave (X) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave A ended at 71.14, wave B ended at 70.44 and wave C ended at 72.55. Pair has resumed lower with the break below wave (W) at 69.56 and now shows a bearish sequence from 10.11.2018 peak.

Wave (Y) lower is unfolding as a zigzag where wave A ended at 69.65. Subdivision of wave A is in 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure. Down from 72.56, Wave ((i)) ended at 71.67, wave ((ii)) ended at 72.36, wave ((iii)) ended at 69.847, wave ((iv)) ended at 70.68, and wave ((v)) of A ended at 69.65.

Wave B is currently in progress as an Expanded Flat Elliott Wave structure. Up from 69.65, wave ((a)) ended at 70.39 and wave ((b)) ended at 69.22. Wave ((c)) of B is expected to end below 72.56 and pair should then resume lower again. Potential area to end wave B is towards 70.89 – 71.77 (50 – 76.4 Fibonacci retracement) of the decline from 72.56. As far as pivot at 72.56 high is holding, expect pair to eventually resume lower again.

Indian Rupee (USDINR) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Has the Next Bull Market for Gold Started?

Gold has been used as the currency of choice throughout history, despite what the central banks of the world say. Ben Bernanke, then the Fed Chairman, famously said that Gold is not money in 2011 during congressional hearing with Senator Ron Paul.

Since President Nixon removed Gold’s peg from the US Dollar in 1971, the world has officially came off the yellow metal’s standard. This new fiat system is backed only by faith in the government who issue it. Once the gold standard was dropped, countries began printing more of their own currency. Today, the world has a cumulative total debt of $250 trillion as of the first quarter of 2018.

The world’s debt has continued to accelerate in the last decade due to central banks manipulating interest rate and making it so cheap. As central banks start to tighten last year, it is no longer cheap to accumulate debt. As a natural consequence of the ever expanding debt, the world’s fiat currency will continue to devalue. A weaker currency makes it easier to pay off debts. For example, if the U.S. dollar’s value falls in half, Americans will owe only 50% of the debt’s value.
Indeed the yellow metal has continued to ascend against various world’s fiat currency. Or more accurately, it is the currency against which Gold is measured that loses their value. Many people only look at Gold in terms of U.S. Dollar and conclude that Gold has been in the bear market in the past 7 years. However, when we look at other markets, we can see the yellow metal has been performing very strongly. For example, Gold has made a new all-time high against emerging market currencies. These include currencies like Turkish Lira, Russian Ruble, Indonesian Rupiah, South African Rand, Brazilian Real, and the Mexican Peso. Investors in these countries do not switch to more stable currencies like the Euro or the U.S. Dollar. Instead, they are moving to hard currency like Gold.
And it’s not just against the emerging market currencies. This year, Gold has broken to new all time high against Australian Dollar as below’s chart shows:
XAUAUD Gold In Australian Dollar Weekly Chart

The yellow metal in Australian Dollar terms has broken to new all time high above 22 Aug 2011 high, which now makes it bullish against 15 Dec 2016 low (1534.8) in the first degree. Rally from there is also showing a 5 swing up, favoring further upside while dips stay above 1534.8.
The yellow metal also almost makes all-time high against Canadian Dollar. It is only CAD$47 away from the all-time high in Canadian dollar’s term. Thus, major developed economies currencies have started to fall in value against the yellow metal in 2019. Gold against the Japanese Yen also looks like a multi-year Elliott Wave symmetrical triangle which likely break out to the upside like chart below shows:
XAUJPY Gold in Japanese Yen Weekly Chart

A separate cycle analysis on USD cycle we did last year remains valid. The analysis seems to suggest that USD has made important high in year 2017 and can be due for multi-year decline like the chart below shows:
US Dollar Time Cycle Analysis

With the Fed close to ending the current rate hike cycle while other central banks like the ECB catches up, USD may finally start to weaken this year. When this happens, Gold (XAUUSD) can finally catch up higher. The key level for the yellow metal remains to be 12 Feb 2018 high at $1361 as chart below shows. A break above there can take us to $1700 as the next swing target
XAUUSD Gold in U.S. Dollar Weekly Chart

The structure of weekly Gold above is a multi year rounded bottom (inverse head and shoulder) with a neckline at $1361. A break above the neckline at $1361 suggests a move higher to $1700, which is the same distance from the head to the neckline.
Keep in mind that market is dynamic and price action may have changed since the writing time of the article. To get regular Elliott Wave Forecast updates on Gold or other instrument in 4 time frames, you can take our 14 days trial here –> 14 days FREE Trial.

Cleveland Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) Aiming for Double Digits

Cleveland Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) is an American mining company that specializes in Iron Ore. With the demand for construction steel soaring around the world and specially in China, the price of Iron Ore continues to rise which makes big miners such as CLF, BHP, Rio Tinto and Vale a major beneficiaries thanks to the high-grades of the ore in their mines.
Since 2016, CLF made few attempts to close the year above $10 handle and it failed every time despite reaching $12 – $13 area. Will 2019 be any different from the previous 3 years ?
Looking at the weekly chart, we can count 5 swings to the upside which ended around the 61.8 fib ext area $12.44 – $14.07 and produced the 6th swing correction during last year. We consider it as an incomplete bullish sequence as long as the pivot at $5.56 low remains intact. We use our proprietary pivot system to tell us when a cycle has ended and when we need to switch to a different degree. Therefore, as both price and pivot are holding $5.56 then the sequence is suggesting a bullish path toward 100% fib ext area $16.70 – $19.34.
Cleveland Cliffs Weekly Chart

CLF is already up 10% this month after ending the 6th swing pullback which started from September 2018 peak. The decline happened as a corrective Elliott wave double three structure which found buyers at the blue box 100% fib ext area $76.4 – $6.78. The blue boxes in our charts are the High-frequency areas where the Markets are likely to end cycles and make a turn. Consequently, Cleveland Cliffs is looking to either resume the rally higher to break 2018 peak or at least bounce in 3 waves toward 50% area $10 – $11.
Cleveland Cliffs 4H Chart

Get more insights about the Basic Materials & Mining Sectors by taking this opportunity to try our services 14 days for Free and learn how to trade Stocks and ETFs using our blue boxes and the 3, 7 or 11 swings sequence. You will get access to our 78 instruments updated in 4 different time frames, Live Trading & Analysis Session done by our Expert Analysts every day, 24-hour chat room support and much more.

Short term Elliott Wave view of Alibaba (BABA) calls for the rally from Dec 24, 2018 low ($129.1) as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from there, wave ((1)) ended at $142.51 and wave ((2)) pullback ended at $129.99. Wave ((3)) rally ended at $153.35 and wave ((4)) pullback is proposed complete at $146.54. The stock still needs to break above wave ((3)) at $153.35 to avoid a double correction.

As an Impulse, internal of wave ((1)), ((3)), and ((5)) subdivide in 5 waves of lesser degree. Within wave ((3)), we see the lesser degree Impulse in wave (1) at $131.15, wave (2) at $130.05, wave (3) at $147.54, wave (4) at $142.06, and wave (5) at $153.35. Wave ((4)) pullback ended as a double three Elliott Wave structure, where wave (W) ended at $148.88, wave (X) ended at $153.38, and wave (Y) ended at $146.54.

Near term, expect Alibaba to extend higher in wave ((5)) while it stays above $146.54. Potential target wave ((5)) can reach as high as $160 – $163 area when wave ((5)) = ((1)). Afterwards, cycle from Dec 24, 2018 should end and Alibaba can pullback to correct that cycle in 3, 7, or 11 swing.

Alibaba (BABA) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

AUDCAD Elliott Wave Sequence Presents Clear Trading Opportunity

Australian Dollar has seen a surge in volatility at start of the year which started with a sharp decline followed by a quick recovery and AUDCAD is no different. Traders know that volatility brings along trading opportunities so in this video blog, we take a look at the Swing Sequence and Elliott Wave Forecast of AUDCAD forex pair to highlight the next high probability trading area.
AUDCAD Elliott Wave Swing Sequence from 2012 peak
Chart below shows Elliott wave swing sequence down from 2.2012 peak. Numbers on the chart represent swings and not waves. Currently we can see 5 swings down from 2.2012 peak when 1st swing ended at 0.9175, 2nd swing ended at 1.0349, 3rd swing ended at 0.9151, 4th swing ended at 1.039 and 5th swing ended at 0.9105, 6th swing is proposed to be still in progress and is expected to stay below 4th swing high (1.039) and below the descending trend line (currently at 1.0165) for another swing lower to complete 7 swings Elliott wave sequence between 0.8739 – 0.7711.

AUDCAD Daily Chart Highlights High Probability Trading Area
AUDCAD daily chart below shows the Elliott Wave structure of the decline from 2016 peak (1.0410). Decline from 1.0410 unfolded in 7 swings and since then pair is proposed to be in a bounce to correct the decline from 1.0410 peak. While above 1/3/2019 (0.9154) low, expect the pair to continue higher toward 0.9826 – 1.0242 area to complete wave ((X)) from where it can resume the decline for new lows toward 0.8739 area or pull back in 3 waves at least to allow sellers to get into a risk free position. As there is no bullish sequence so we don’t like the buying and expect sellers to appear in 0.9826 – 1.0242 area to push prices lower.

EURCAD : Will Bears Take Control?

EURCAD Technical Analysis January 14/2019
Bearish market patterns can be seen on the EURCAD 4 hour chart. In the chart below there are possible bearish patterns that can trigger SELLS if the market makes another move higher. The blue bearish pattern triggers SELLS at the BC 0.50% Fib. retracement level and the purple bearish pattern also trigger SELLS nearby at the XA 1.618% Fib. retracement level. Traders should watch these levels for a possible reaction lower because there has been previous support price action in the past at these levels. EURCAD showed strong support in the past at the blue BC 0.50% level which should now play as strong resistance if price can reach back up there. EURCAD can also rally a bit higher towards the purple XA 1.618% Fib. retracement level where the pair will encounter more selling pressure from traders reacting to the purple bearish pattern. Traders will need to wait and watch if the pair makes another push higher and also see how price reacts at the possible resistance zone (blue box) where EURCAD bears can be waiting to take back control. If looking to trade EURCAD stops should be placed at the point B high of the blue bullish pattern and traders should be patient and wait for price to make a move higher to the possible resistance zone (blue box) looking for a move lower to extend below the January 9/2019 lows which will hit the target levels (green). Waiting to SELL/SHORT at the minimum BC 0.50% Fib. retracement level (blue) will offer a better risk/reward trade setup. If price continues lower and breaks below the blue AB 2.24% Fib. retracement level before touching the minimum BC 0.50% Fib. retracement level then the sell trade setup is cancelled. Only time will tell what EURCAD will do but at least now you are aware of the possible area where the pair can reverse lower from.
EURCAD 4 Hour Chart 1.14.2019

Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX or chat me on Skype > EWF Aidan Chan
*** Always use proper risk/money management according to your account size ***
At Elliottwave-Forecast we cover 78 instruments (Forex, Commodities, Indices, Stocks and ETFs) in 4 different timeframes and we offer 5 Live Session Webinars everyday. We do Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Trade Setup Videos and we have a 24 Chat Room. Our clients are always in the loop for the next market move.
Try Elliottwave-Forecast for 14 days FREE !!! Just click here –> 14 day FREE trial

World Indices: Why FTSE Elliott wave sequence favors to keep buying

The World Indices have seen the biggest decline since the lows at 2009. However, despite the size of the decline, it does not affect the overall trend. We always say at www.elliottwave-forecast.com that knowing the cycles and Market sequences are the key to become a successful trader. Many people believe the Market works in a straight line and of course that is not the case.
We track most of World Indices and over 100 instrument across the World. We correlate them to get the edge of the Market. The following chart show FTSE ($UKX-FTSE) the Grand Super cycle since the all time low. We can see how we have not reached the 100% Blue Box at 10296.34 – 11913.27 which will be a moment when 2 Super cycle degree will reach equal length in price. The first super cycle degree goes from all-time low to 1999, whereas the other one started at 2009.
This suggests that until these two cycles reach 100%, we should keep buying the World Indices. We look at other instrument within the Indices group to discover the next entry levels and the best timing. The $UKX-FTSE chart is showing the Monthly path and it shows an incomplete sequence price wise in red. In addition, it also shows 5 swing incomplete sequence in black from 2009 low which is also a bullish event. The combination of both bullish sequences from two degrees suggest that the Index will likely remain above the 2009 low.
This also means that the Index will continue higher when swing 6 black or swing 2 Blue ends. As we are saying to members, this decline in World Indices is another chance to buy stocks and Indices at very good levels. As always, the social media’s bias of a big market crash will again become another trap. Nothing big will happen at minimum
until year 2020-2022 and it can even pass those times. Until then, keep buying the dips in World Indices in 3-7-11, The ruling trend is still higher.
FTSE Elliott Wave Sequence Monthly Chart