NZD retail sales | Forex Factory

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NZD retail sales

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 12, 2006 4:42pm Oct 12, 2006 4:42pm
damn noone was trading that killer NZD report? another stunner!
Relax and be happy.
  • #2
  • Oct 12, 2006 4:44pm Oct 12, 2006 4:44pm
btw, i think the NZD is the only currency i would be long against the dollar. im not ready to put my money down just yet, but i have a feeling we will breach .67 here soon. the central bank is hawkish, but officials are dovish. the central bank always wins! (other than the BOJ )
Relax and be happy.
  • #3
  • Oct 12, 2006 4:47pm Oct 12, 2006 4:47pm
I traded this report.

I straddled it as it appears to be a very consistent performer.

I tightened my entries just before the release and tada

I took 2 lots @ 10 pips
Left 1 lot at Breakeven with a trail.


DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #4
  • Oct 12, 2006 4:50pm Oct 12, 2006 4:50pm
Quoting drcole1
I traded this report.

I straddled it as it appears to be a very consistent performer.

I tightened my entries just before the release and tada

I took 2 lots @ 10 pips
Left 1 lot at Breakeven with a trail.


DC
Hello DC,
What broker do u use? Thanks.
  • #5
  • Oct 12, 2006 4:52pm Oct 12, 2006 4:52pm
I took 22 pips and that was entering before the spike. I saw an intial a whipsaw of 7 to 10 pips, then, as it retraced on the sell. Everything else came out as expected. I normally don't trade retail sales, or anything to do with NZD, but. Today was a good,

by the way. I don't, or didn't straddle. Nor do i use any news feeds.
  • #6
  • Oct 12, 2006 5:05pm Oct 12, 2006 5:05pm
The number came below consensus at 0.0%, consensus was 0.1%.
I didn't trade this one when I saw the number came out so close, the kiwi always surprise me
  • #7
  • Oct 12, 2006 5:13pm Oct 12, 2006 5:13pm
perfect setup..

straddle 10 pips distance, 15 pips TP, 5 pips spread

it made a 30 pip initial salvo before the retrace; just exactly touching my exit price.

The other broker widened spread so I was not able to take full advantage of it.
  • #8
  • Oct 12, 2006 5:14pm Oct 12, 2006 5:14pm
Quoting Shafii
The number came below consensus at 0.0%, consensus was 0.1%.
yes but FF predicted 0.0%:

we do get unlucky too though
Relax and be happy.
  • #9
  • Oct 12, 2006 5:16pm Oct 12, 2006 5:16pm
Quoting forexplayer
"Hello DC,
What broker do u use? Thanks."
I use FXSol....just to answer your question. It is not a recommendation.
Each broker has it's own rules...you need to get to know them and trade accordingly.

I believe that it is not really the broker, but how you adapt to the market that makes one successful.

DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #10
  • Oct 12, 2006 5:27pm Oct 12, 2006 5:27pm
BTW BurgerKing

I would like to express deep appreciation for all of your hard work. Your historical charts have framed my strategy all week and I have had very good trades.

I know I could do the research myself, but I really appreciate your work. If there is anything that I can do to help or be of some assistance let me know.

DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
  • #11
  • Oct 12, 2006 6:40pm Oct 12, 2006 6:40pm
Quoting drcole1
BTW BurgerKing

I would like to express deep appreciation for all of your hard work. Your historical charts have framed my strategy all week and I have had very good trades.

I know I could do the research myself, but I really appreciate your work. If there is anything that I can do to help or be of some assistance let me know.

DC
Seeing people making good use of those charts is enough.

I'm opening up a donation box soon to fund my TTN subscription ... hehe..
Nahh.. just for laugh.
  • #12
  • Oct 12, 2006 7:35pm Oct 12, 2006 7:35pm
Quoting BurgerKing
Seeing people making good use of those charts is enough.

I'm opening up a donation box soon to fund my TTN subscription ... hehe..
Nahh.. just for laugh.
BugerKing there is a coupon code to save like 30% per month off the audio version... : fxb3006

Thanks for all the stuff you post!
  • #13
  • Oct 13, 2006 4:26am Oct 13, 2006 4:26am
Quoting Shafii
The number came below consensus at 0.0%, consensus was 0.1%.
I didn't trade this one when I saw the number came out so close, the kiwi always surprise me
I think you'll find it was the core retails that caused the move, not the headline
  • #14
  • Dec 13, 2006 12:04pm Dec 13, 2006 12:04pm
here it goes, this NZD retail sales news time is arrived again, any input on this one is much apprecaited.

<table class="tborder" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><thead><tr><td class="alt2" align="center">NZD</td> <td class="alt2">Retail Sales m/m</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">[img]images/misc/mi_high.gif[/img]</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">-0.2%</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">1.2%</td></tr></thead></table>

just for considration, i see the consensus in most other news site is +0.1%, but here is -0.2%, i dont know which is correct, thanks for your comments.
  • #15
  • Dec 13, 2006 12:32pm Dec 13, 2006 12:32pm
Quoting mohsen57
here it goes, this NZD retail sales news time is arrived again, any input on this one is much apprecaited.

<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt2 align=middle>NZD</TD><TD class=alt2>Retail Sales m/m</TD><TD class=alt2 align=middle>[img]images/misc/mi_high.gif[/img]</TD><TD class=alt2 align=middle>


</TD><TD class=alt2 align=middle>-0.2%</TD><TD class=alt2 align=middle>1.2%</TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY></TBODY></TABLE>

just for considration, i see the consensus in most other news site is +0.1%, but here is -0.2%, i dont know which is correct, thanks for your comments.
Any ideas what would be a safe deviation to trade this one?
  • #16
  • Dec 13, 2006 1:01pm Dec 13, 2006 1:01pm
That is very true... I am getting mixed reviews aswell. But from some trusted sources it seems to be +0.1%. Also maybe this might help u guys a little ... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a03yOvotl_38

Personally myself i will enter Short just before the release on AUD/NZD, will target 35 pips and will have a very tight stop possibly 10 pips away. If I lose well 10 pips is not gonna kill me but if I win... well than its party time...Good luck everyone.

P.S Any good ideas of how to give your broker a slow death will be really appreciated.
  • #17
  • Dec 13, 2006 1:12pm Dec 13, 2006 1:12pm
Aud/Nzd, as high as 1.1415 and as low as 1.1360 today; trending down since 15:34 gmt. FF Forecasts sales down 1.4% from previous month (down to -.2 from +1.2) which seems like a significant decline m/m. If correct, I'd look for Aud/Nzd (currently ranging) to return to its 1.1415 high for roughly a +50 pip move to the upside (and beyond?).

Just information; not a recommendation.

merlin,

youse guys know something the rest of them don't??
  • #18
  • Dec 13, 2006 1:23pm Dec 13, 2006 1:23pm
Quoting Knight_Trader
That is very true... I am getting mixed reviews aswell. But from some trusted sources it seems to be +0.1%.



kiwi retail sales later today at 4:45 EST
(MoM prior 1.2% ex -0.5% YoY prior 3.7% ex. 4.5%)

Source from Forex.com

Ps. Are we still looking for NZD down ?
"Quality means doing it right when no one is looking"
  • #19
  • Dec 13, 2006 1:28pm Dec 13, 2006 1:28pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
merlin,

youse guys know something the rest of them don't??
im not the one who posts the forecast, but i know that we have good sources we have been right more times than not, but far from perfect.

i guess the only way to find out who is right on this one is to wait until 4:45:grin:

oh btw, i have seen some estimates for this as low as -0.5% MoM, i think i saw it from a UBS report.
Relax and be happy.
  • #20
  • Dec 13, 2006 1:43pm Dec 13, 2006 1:43pm
So for this one, AUDNZD is the better pair , compaired to NZDUSD?


Rusty
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