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Alien's Extraterrestrial Visual Systems
- #21,390
- Jan 2, 2019 5:25am Jan 2, 2019 5:25am
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,603 Posts
Happy new year from Italy, Alien friends.
Per aspera ad astra 
- #21,392
- Jan 2, 2019 5:38am Jan 2, 2019 5:38am
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,603 Posts
Overlook for EUR and GBP:
"EUR/USD heads into 2019's first European market session struggling to hold onto 1.1450 as Wednesday sees the US Dollar take a leg up, with broader market sentiment twisting towards the downside, though thin market volumes and restrained trading outside of the Pacific sector is seeing the Fiber still buried deeply within familiar levels. Wednesday brings a fresh round of Markit PMIs for the EU, with Germany's Markit PMI dropping at 08:55 GMT, followed closely by the broad EU PMI at 09:00 GMT, and both indicators are expected to hold steady at their previous readings (51.5 and 51.4, respectively), though political discourse within Europe remains tense as the European Commission juggles overblown government budgets from Italy and France, while also trying to keep a close hand on the runaway Brexit scenario with January set to test investors' confidence with critical events slated for the coming weeks.
GBP/USD is building a near-term base close to 1.2730 after the pairing managed to stage a halting recovery from this week's lows near 1.2600, but the upside continues to look limited as January comes in with plenty of Brexit action to keep Pound bulls off-balance.Wednesday delivers the UK's latest Markit PMIs at 09:30 GMT (forecast 52.5, last 53.1), though the mid-tier economic indicator is set to be completely overshadowed by a fresh bout of Brexit-focused headlines; January sees Prime Minister Theresa May finally delivering her much-despised Brexit withdrawal agreement for a parliamentary vote after several weeks of strategic delay, and opposition party members are also slated to bring forward a parliamentary no-confidence vote in Mrs. May's government. PM May's original strategy of 'bleeding the clock' by withholding her divorce bill until it was too late to form an alternative should the bill fail ist also looking completely declawed, with key MPs in Britain's parliament seeking to secure a Brexit delay in case of an (almost guaranteed) no-vote on May's deal, a move that will draw plenty of ire from hard-line Brexiteers within May's own Tory party, who are perfectly happy to see the UK collapse out of the European Union without any semblance of a trade deal in place".
"EUR/USD heads into 2019's first European market session struggling to hold onto 1.1450 as Wednesday sees the US Dollar take a leg up, with broader market sentiment twisting towards the downside, though thin market volumes and restrained trading outside of the Pacific sector is seeing the Fiber still buried deeply within familiar levels. Wednesday brings a fresh round of Markit PMIs for the EU, with Germany's Markit PMI dropping at 08:55 GMT, followed closely by the broad EU PMI at 09:00 GMT, and both indicators are expected to hold steady at their previous readings (51.5 and 51.4, respectively), though political discourse within Europe remains tense as the European Commission juggles overblown government budgets from Italy and France, while also trying to keep a close hand on the runaway Brexit scenario with January set to test investors' confidence with critical events slated for the coming weeks.
GBP/USD is building a near-term base close to 1.2730 after the pairing managed to stage a halting recovery from this week's lows near 1.2600, but the upside continues to look limited as January comes in with plenty of Brexit action to keep Pound bulls off-balance.Wednesday delivers the UK's latest Markit PMIs at 09:30 GMT (forecast 52.5, last 53.1), though the mid-tier economic indicator is set to be completely overshadowed by a fresh bout of Brexit-focused headlines; January sees Prime Minister Theresa May finally delivering her much-despised Brexit withdrawal agreement for a parliamentary vote after several weeks of strategic delay, and opposition party members are also slated to bring forward a parliamentary no-confidence vote in Mrs. May's government. PM May's original strategy of 'bleeding the clock' by withholding her divorce bill until it was too late to form an alternative should the bill fail ist also looking completely declawed, with key MPs in Britain's parliament seeking to secure a Brexit delay in case of an (almost guaranteed) no-vote on May's deal, a move that will draw plenty of ire from hard-line Brexiteers within May's own Tory party, who are perfectly happy to see the UK collapse out of the European Union without any semblance of a trade deal in place".
Per aspera ad astra
- #21,393
- Jan 2, 2019 12:54pm Jan 2, 2019 12:54pm
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 13,922 Posts
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
- #21,395
- Jan 7, 2019 4:40am Jan 7, 2019 4:40am
- Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,603 Posts
What is in sight for EUR and GBP?
"The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1428 - still trapped in a 1.15-1.12 range, which has been in place since mid-November. The pair picked up a bid in Asia at a low of 1.1395 amid broad-based USD weakness. On Friday, Fed's Powell signaled that the central bank may pause rate hikes if the US economy weakened. He added that the central bank “will be patient” as it weighs future interest rate hikes in light of low inflation and the recent stock market volatility. The dovish Fed expectations could keep the EUR on the offensive. Further, heightened prospects of Fed rate pause, easing US-China trade tensions and PBOC's rate cut seem to have put a bid under the risk assets. The greenback, therefore, could take a beating, having acted as a safe haven in 2018. All-in-all, the pair looks set to revisit the upper edge of the trading range, that is, 1.15. The options market data is echoing similar sentiments. For instance, the EUR/USD one month 25 delta risk reversals are currently trading at -0.20 - the highest level since April 2018. Notably, the gauge has risen sharply from -0.90 seen two months ago, which indicates rising demand for call options (bullish bets).
GBP/USD is trading into 1.2750 heading into the London market session for Monday, and although broader market sentiment is improving and dragging the GBP along with it, Brexit concerns remain the key driver of the Sterling as the UK's parliament gears up for a vote on Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit withdrawal proposal.PM May pulled her EU divorce bill from a parliamentary vote in the eleventh hour last in December when a defeat looked guaranteed. Now Mrs. May's withdrawal proposal is set to be voted on by the UK's House of Commons despite May's delays, with parliament still set to reject May's deal, and with no other alternatives in the pipeline should May's plan fail, GBP sentiment could easily spiral into the bearish side. Monday delivers little economic data for Sterling or US Dollar traders, leaving Pound bidders to grapple with Brexit headlines as they continue to leak out of the UK, while Greenback traders are still focused on Fed head Jerome Powell, whose words last week knocked back expectations of rate hikes in the future, casting a shadow over the USD."
"The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1428 - still trapped in a 1.15-1.12 range, which has been in place since mid-November. The pair picked up a bid in Asia at a low of 1.1395 amid broad-based USD weakness. On Friday, Fed's Powell signaled that the central bank may pause rate hikes if the US economy weakened. He added that the central bank “will be patient” as it weighs future interest rate hikes in light of low inflation and the recent stock market volatility. The dovish Fed expectations could keep the EUR on the offensive. Further, heightened prospects of Fed rate pause, easing US-China trade tensions and PBOC's rate cut seem to have put a bid under the risk assets. The greenback, therefore, could take a beating, having acted as a safe haven in 2018. All-in-all, the pair looks set to revisit the upper edge of the trading range, that is, 1.15. The options market data is echoing similar sentiments. For instance, the EUR/USD one month 25 delta risk reversals are currently trading at -0.20 - the highest level since April 2018. Notably, the gauge has risen sharply from -0.90 seen two months ago, which indicates rising demand for call options (bullish bets).
GBP/USD is trading into 1.2750 heading into the London market session for Monday, and although broader market sentiment is improving and dragging the GBP along with it, Brexit concerns remain the key driver of the Sterling as the UK's parliament gears up for a vote on Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit withdrawal proposal.PM May pulled her EU divorce bill from a parliamentary vote in the eleventh hour last in December when a defeat looked guaranteed. Now Mrs. May's withdrawal proposal is set to be voted on by the UK's House of Commons despite May's delays, with parliament still set to reject May's deal, and with no other alternatives in the pipeline should May's plan fail, GBP sentiment could easily spiral into the bearish side. Monday delivers little economic data for Sterling or US Dollar traders, leaving Pound bidders to grapple with Brexit headlines as they continue to leak out of the UK, while Greenback traders are still focused on Fed head Jerome Powell, whose words last week knocked back expectations of rate hikes in the future, casting a shadow over the USD."
Per aspera ad astra
