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Let's Trade Options

  • #16,481
  • Dec 28, 2018 10:17am Dec 28, 2018 10:17am
key will be if futures can finish in positive territory on closing
  • #16,482
  • Dec 28, 2018 10:50am Dec 28, 2018 10:50am
Quoting Cecil Gee
Happy new and prosperous year to all option traders
Same to you CG and to you too money. Trading options got a lot more interesting and lucrative in 2018 and I expect more of that in 2019.

Maybe old hoss Wulfgar will come back and drop knowledge some more in 2019?

Things I am watching in the coming year:

All FOMC meetings now followed by Press conferences - plus they are less clear now about how much more tightening they need to do - means FOMC's will be more vol-inducing & more tradeable. Next one is Jan30.

Expect more political fireworks out of DC and perhaps bombshell type stuff if Mueller releases info that implicated DJT in criminal or otherwise nefarious activity. That could come early in '19, maybe in Q1. Otherwise there will be divided govt gridlock, which is not negative for equities.

I think markets will rally like volcano erupting if DJT is forced out of office.

Historically US equities are up well in years following mid-term elections. Yes, yes everyone has been waiting for the old bull market to correct, but you could say we just saw it. 2018 was kind of like a year of rolling corrections in various sectors and the worst December in history punctuated that. So, unless we enter a recession, we should see >20% growth in 2019.

From current levels of spoos 2,500 - that would put us back in the neighborhood of 2018 ath's, back to 3,000 or better.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,483
  • Dec 28, 2018 11:11am Dec 28, 2018 11:11am
The Feb15 SPX 2250/2220 vert puts I sold for $7.50 now worth about $3.50, tempted to close and put a $4 win on the '18 books.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,484
  • Dec 28, 2018 1:02pm Dec 28, 2018 1:02pm
so tempted to put a call trade on NVDA 138 calls. Missed it and it closed at 133.65. probably best i didn't

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real-time price. Currency in USD
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133.65+2.48 (+1.89%)
  • #16,485
  • Dec 28, 2018 4:21pm Dec 28, 2018 4:21pm
Quoting The Fool
Stocks are going to rally. I still believe in santa. We should see spoos >2,700 to close the year. This dip off the fomc's completely expected action today is your xmas present. Go long.....
....ok, well one more day to make 2700 looks like a tall order.Could we get another 'day after Xmas' rally and break 2,550 on 12/31? Doubtful. Any new bullish trades I put on this week had time out to the end of Jan.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,486
  • Dec 28, 2018 8:48pm Dec 28, 2018 8:48pm
Happy New Year to ALL.
  • #16,487
  • Dec 30, 2018 3:56pm Dec 30, 2018 3:56pm
Futures up looking for a retrace throughout the night into early hours to close the gap up tight squeeze forming on the hourly since Friday . I'm looking north to finish the year off. Good luck if anyone trades the thin market tomorrow.
  • #16,488
  • Dec 30, 2018 4:45pm Dec 30, 2018 4:45pm
out of the money ford 8$ strike june -21 -19 ..... bought at 0.61 ..... limit orders in for 0.50

current pe 4.11 ......

price to book 1.45 .....

eps 1.54 ......

dividend yield 7.68 .....

buying the stock also......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #16,489
  • Dec 30, 2018 10:24pm Dec 30, 2018 10:24pm
F looks like it can easily regain $9, but the ER is 1/23....what is your intent for those long dated calls?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,490
  • Dec 30, 2018 10:31pm Dec 30, 2018 10:31pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
Futures up looking for a retrace throughout the night into early hours to close the gap up tight squeeze forming on the hourly since Friday . I'm looking north to finish the year off. Good luck if anyone trades the thin market tomorrow.
I have bullish trades running, I think if we get some (real) good news re: China/US trade and the govt shutdown is solved in the coming week, we can see us stocks rally right thru Q4 earnings season. I could see a >10% rally for Jan alone....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,491
  • Dec 30, 2018 10:47pm Dec 30, 2018 10:47pm
this crash is gonna be turned around just a matter of when and how long it takes, I would look for at least $55 to be regained in Q2
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,492
  • Dec 31, 2018 3:23am Dec 31, 2018 3:23am
Quoting The Fool
what is your intent for those long dated calls?
//-----

hey fool..... those are the shortest i've bought in several years...... tend to stick with leaps.....

my intent on those options is 100%..... in this case, 1.22 ..... very good chance i'll get in cheaper.....

the dividend on the stock will pay for the option at this price.... the stock itself is long term play for me......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #16,493
  • Dec 31, 2018 6:03am Dec 31, 2018 6:03am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I have bullish trades running, I think if we get some (real) good news re: China/US trade and the govt shutdown is solved in the coming week, we can see us stocks rally right thru Q4 earnings season. I could see a >10% rally for Jan alone....
hope they work out for you, short term bottom may help along with the news out of china
  • #16,494
  • Dec 31, 2018 7:12am Dec 31, 2018 7:12am
Quoting Cecil Gee
Futures up looking for a retrace throughout the night into early hours to close the gap up tight squeeze forming on the hourly since Friday . I'm looking north to finish the year off. Good luck if anyone trades the thin market tomorrow.
gap never closed overnight, little concerning that futures haven't followed through as of yet
  • #16,495
  • Dec 31, 2018 7:37am Dec 31, 2018 7:37am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} gap never closed overnight, little concerning that futures haven't followed through as of yet
bought some puts on SPY a little after the above post SPY 247 puts Jan 4 exp at $2.32, its struggling to go higher. Went light too. if it reverses i'll close


SPY Jan 2019 247.000 put
OPR - OPR Delayed price. Currency in USD
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2.32-1.44 (-38.30%)
As of 10:11AM EST. Market open.
  • #16,496
  • Dec 31, 2018 7:40am Dec 31, 2018 7:40am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} bought some puts on SPY a little after the above post SPY 247 puts Jan 4 exp at $2.32, its struggling to go higher. Went light too. if it reverses i'll close SPY Jan 2019 247.000 put OPR - OPR Delayed price. Currency in USD Add to watchlist 2.32-1.44 (-38.30%) As of 10:11AM EST. Market open.
current SPY price 248.67

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
NYSEArca - Nasdaq Real-time price. Currency in USD
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248.67+0.92 (+0.37%)
As of 10:38AM EST. Market open.
  • #16,497
  • Dec 31, 2018 8:26am Dec 31, 2018 8:26am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} current SPY price 248.67 SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) NYSEArca - Nasdaq Real-time price. Currency in USD Add to watchlist 248.67+0.92 (+0.37%) As of 10:38AM EST. Market open.
SPY now at 247.75 once I see decent profit minus comms i will close, best new years wishes to the Fool and MM and other options traders

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
NYSEArca - Nasdaq Real-time price. Currency in USD
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247.75+0.01 (+0.01%)
As of 11:22AM EST. Market open.
  • #16,498
  • Dec 31, 2018 9:34am Dec 31, 2018 9:34am
Gentlemen, I hope that everyone has a fun and safe New Year's Eve. I wish everyone a very profitable 2019!

Cecil- good luck with your SPY trade
TF- one of my resolutions for 2019 is to learn spread trading!
  • #16,499
  • Dec 31, 2018 9:46am Dec 31, 2018 9:46am
HAPPY 2019 to you, too, money. Feel free to throw up your spread trade ideas here and I will critique. Paper trading spread trades is the way to go and you can put on dozens at a time to see how they work. I encourage you to check out tastytrade also to see the vids on specific types of setups. They are not the last word, though - your experience with live trades is always the best teacher.

I am hoping we rally in the firt week or so of the year, it would be good to drain off some juice before earnings.

I am starting to shop earnings setups this week......will show some ideas in 2019.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,500
  • Dec 31, 2018 12:42pm Dec 31, 2018 12:42pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} bought some puts on SPY a little after the above post SPY 247 puts Jan 4 exp at $2.32, its struggling to go higher. Went light too. if it reverses i'll close SPY Jan 2019 247.000 put OPR - OPR Delayed price. Currency in USD Add to watchlist 2.32-1.44 (-38.30%) As of 10:11AM EST. Market open.
closed out this yoyo trade a while ago at $2.22 resulting in a 10c loss plus comms

SPY Jan 2019 247.000 put
OPR - OPR Delayed price. Currency in USD
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2.22-1.54 (-40.96%)
As of 3:24PM EST. Market open.
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