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Learning From Unsuccessful Mouteki Trades - The Search for Filters...

  • #181
  • Oct 9, 2006 2:33pm Oct 9, 2006 2:33pm
[quote=mungo]Trader416

Initial stop was close of signal bar + or - ATR(10) x 2.5. . Stop was ATR(10) Ratchet (Le Beau) on each bar.

hi mungo,
the atr ratchet sounds very interesting. do you know how to use this indicator?
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ATR_RATCHET.mq4   2 KB | 468 downloads
  • #182
  • Oct 9, 2006 3:43pm Oct 9, 2006 3:43pm
Ok, here are the new July results using 4h candles for GBP/USD....

Mouteki +329
Filter +300

Again, a lot of false signals using pure Mouteki, but in the end, taking every trade netted a gain. Now there were several trades where the trendline was close to vertical, but if it opened under it/above it, I took it. I only recall Mouteki saying he liked a 45degree angle, I believe, but never saw a post that he ignored the others. These and a few others ended up being bad trades, which could explain why he got so many more pip in July than me.

Just as an FYI = 12 Mouteki trades taken, 7 gainers, 5 were losers.
6 Filter trades were taken, 4 gainers and 2 losers. The 2 losers were also Mouteki losers, so using Mouteki s/l calculation would have the filter at +315 instead of +300 as in the filter I put at least a 60 pip s/l.

I also wrote down under each trade exactly what I saw in the charts regarding the 4 filters that were listed earlier in the post (except the buying/selling pressure as I have a question on it), however I only used 1 of the 4 in these calculations.
  • #183
  • Oct 9, 2006 3:51pm Oct 9, 2006 3:51pm
Can somebody answer me about the buying/selling pressure and it needing to be above/below the line. Say on a 75degree angle a sell occurs. At what point is the line above the line instead of below it? When you draw the horizontal line, do you look at the point that it crossed on the breakout candle, open candle or the candle used to determine buying pressure?
  • #184
  • Oct 9, 2006 5:38pm Oct 9, 2006 5:38pm
NEW JUNE DATA...


Ok, when I said I thought June and July were tested together, I was right. I used the 1H on both months. I just posted new July results and here are June, which are worse than before:

Mouteki -23
Filter -29

There were some very good trades and a lot of bad ones for both methods this month. One time, Mouteki hit s/l on same candle because it was a 36 s/l, but ended up reaching target. Filter had 60 s/l, but the next candle went down exactly 40 pips, so a +10 was used, however target would've hit as well.

Very good setup happened at the end of the month. 2 consecutive sells occurred, but were stopped out on the Thursday before the end of month, week, quarter. I take it some big dollar negative news happend. This plus the above paragraph hurt the results.

15 Mouteki trades taken. 6 positive, 9 negative
10 Filter trades taken. 3 positive, 7 negative - however of the 7 negative, a +10 occurred, but because I got in at a lower/higher price waiting on the candle to outdo the other one, two were actually supposed to be "free trades"... I am not sure how to go about this part, so I will study the data.
  • #185
  • Oct 12, 2006 4:21am Oct 12, 2006 4:21am
hello all.

i did a search of all the posts by mouteki in all threads.

He mentioned in the "naked charting" thread, that he uses trendlines and fibs for trading.

has anyone heard\read\know of some way that fibs can be used as a filter with mouteki's system? or in conjunction with the system?

phoenix
  • #186
  • Oct 12, 2006 3:17pm Oct 12, 2006 3:17pm
This message will also post in other relevant threads (Please read through).<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>

<o> </o>

Notes from Mouteki statements found throughout his threads on FF:<o></o>

<o> </o>

· “I love this currency…” “This pair has a lot of potential. It responds rather well to the mouteki method. I have become a full time trader of it.” (GBP/CHF thread post #8)<o></o>

· Regarding Mouteki & Fibo’s I have found the following:<o></o>

o In the thread Mouteki Trading post #405, as Horace has pointed out, Mouteki posts his chart with Fib on it and uses it as a SL on that particular trade.<o></o>

o In the thread Mouteki Trading post #125 his chart of AUD/NZD has Fibo on it.<o></o>

o In the thread Naked Trading post #8 he states, “I use strictly trend lines and fibs on my charts. No indicators for me, they all lag, whats the use, for them to tell you what already happened in price. Anyway, that’s what I do…”<o></o>

· Looks for setups during the <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>London</st1lace></st1:City> session and NY time. I am sorry I didn’t note the thread because I forgot to write it down, but he did state this and I would assume these are prime setups and not exclusive by the looks of his charts.<o></o>

· “Let me take a stab at your?” “I think of it this way...If you spend sleepless days creating a system that you have strictly traded demo day in and day out and notice that it creates profit on a regular, are you in return going to release it to the general public who has not suffered the way you have to create your system. It's simple human nature not to share something for free, is it not? If someone had a strategy of trading that they have proof of its accuracy they arent going to turn around and give it away for free, would you? No, you would create a charting system and sell it to subscribers, why not hard work desirves a pay off in the end, does it not? Lets say you were to give it away for free, what is your payoff going to be, pesimistic traders who only target the flaws not benefits of your system. Just some food for thought on the subject!!!” (Thread was How Come Nobody Likes to Share? His post is #38)<o></o>

<o> </o>

Note: When looking at Mouteki’s chart time, it is GMT -4<o></o>

<o> </o>

Regarding his PowerPoint presentation for ALL of his trades for GBP/USD in the month of July (Located in Mouteki Trading thread post #885). Some points that I have noted:<o></o>

<o> </o>

· 5 trades taken in the entire month by Mouteki (I think this is much less than trades that could have been taken strictly on non-discretionary setups).<o></o>

· Trade Entry Times<o></o>

o Trade #1 entered at 0000 GMT (Asian Session) and resulted in +34 Pips, but TP was initiated on a reversal signal on Trade #2.<o></o>

o Trade #2 entered at 0800 GMT (London Session) and resulted in TP hit +142 pips.<o></o>

o Trade #3 entered at 1600 GMT (London Close, end of prime NY trading) resulted in SL being hit -46 pips.<o></o>

o Trade #4 entered at 0800 GMT (London Session) and resulted in TP hit +144 pips.<o></o>

o Trade #5 entered at 1200 GMT (London Session) and resulted in TP hit +213 pips. <o></o>

<o> </o>

Notes from threads he posted on the other forum:<o></o>

<o> </o>

· QUESTION
Hello Mouteki,
Do you have any preference as to how steep a demand/supply line should be when broken? To elaborate, if you must decide to enter on only one trade, would you choose one whose demand line is so gentle that it is almost horizontal, or one whose demand line is so steep that it is almost vertical?

ANSWER
I love it when the supply/demand line broken is close to a 45 degree angle. A supply/demand line that is at a 45 degree angle signifies it was a sustainable trend to me, and the break of such a line would indicate that sustainable trend has broke the opposite way, possibly creating a new sustainable trend. If I had to choose between a demand line so gentle its almost horizontal as to a demand line so steep its almost vertical, I would have to say the one that is almost horizontal. My reasoning, simply the problem with extremely steep lines is the breakout is most likely picking up the retracement of the fast moving trend in force. So you may get in and see it just open the direction your looking to enter and quickly stop you out. Now, in a almost horizontal trend line, that signifies a strong point of support/resistance in the market that if broken will almost always give you pips, the problem is that the price projections are some times to big due to the length of the trend line.<o></o>

· QUESTION
Dear Mouteki
Thanks for sharing your system. I know you are extremely busy, but would appreciate if you can answer the question briefly:
There are many trend line breaks that we come across every day on 4 hour charts and most of them are very successful Trades. In your experince "What do you define as A-1 Trend Break ". Meaning, what is the setup you will be looking into, you think will be a perfect trend break that you dont want to miss!!
I would like get into a trade which is A-1 trend break (it could be one trade in all of the week among all the pairs).
You dont have to reveal right away,I can wait, but would like to know if there is such a thing in your system.
Thanks again.
Rishi

ANSWER
Yes, I believe I have something like this up my sleeve. <?xml:namespace prefix = v ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" /><v:shapetype id=_x0000_t75 stroked="f" filled="f" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" oreferrelative="t" o:spt="75" coordsize="21600,21600"><v:stroke joinstyle="miter"></v:stroke><v:formulas><v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></v:f><v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></v:f><v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></v:f></v:formulas><vath o:connecttype="rect" gradientshapeok="t" o:extrusionok="f"></vath><o:lock aspectratio="t" v:ext="edit"></o:lock></v:shapetype><v:shape id=_x0000_i1025 style="WIDTH: 11.25pt; HEIGHT: 11.25pt" alt=";D" type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata o:href="http://s3.images.proboards.com/grin.gif" src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\JOSHKO~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image001.gif"></v:imagedata></v:shape><o></o>

· QUESTION:
hello mouteki,
seems this method is only consistent on cable only, can you confirm this?
rgds

ANSWER
No I can not confirm this statement. I have found it profitable on the four majors as well as the jpy crosses. It depends on if you define consistancy by more winners that lossers. Than I would have to get back to you on that one, but as far as profitability, I have found it mostly in the majors and eur/jpy since they are my main focus.<o></o>

· QUESTION:
Greetings Mouteki,
I recall somewhere you said you don't trade Mondays, rather you let the markets settle in. Could you recommend some arbitrary time based on GMT that you usually feel comfortable to commence trades for the week?
Secondly, you also say you close any open trades on a Friday - do you look to open trades on Fridays? regards
Xerof

Answer
Greetings Xerof,
This is a great question so I want to answer to it accordingly. As my recommendation I would take any trades given to me from the open of the Sunday asian session and trade all the way up to <st1:State><st1lace>New York</st1lace></st1:State> 8 am Friday. I don't look to necessarily exit all trades on Friday, but I manage them accordingly. It all depends on the situation, I remember a few weeks ago I was in a trade for over a week on the gbp/jpy with about a 350 pip price projection. It was Friday and after over a week being in the trade I closed it out with 320 pips just to lock in the trade. But, honestly if I were a beginner to this method I would recommend trading the parameters I stated above. Hope this helps...<o></o>

· Everyone should have recieved a PM from me stating the move back to Forex Factory. Please check your PM folder. (Posted Sept 25)<o></o>

<o> </o>

My general thoughts on what I have presented:<o></o>

<o> </o>

· We know only the basics of the way he trades.<o></o>

· He uses Fibonacci amongst other things in his trading<o></o>

· Time of day may play a role in his trading, how important I am not sure, but in my other trading styles it is huge. With that said my other systems are based on 1HR and less timeframes and not 4HR charts.<o></o>

· Higher timeframes are possibly used as filters or confirmations of trade direction.<o></o>

· He may at this point not disclose anymore information on his system. This is based upon the statement he made to question in the forum where someone asks why nobody shares. I personally agree with aspects of this statement, but may not fully agree with the details or necessarily the end use of it. <o></o>

· My general opinion of what has been presented by Mouteki is this: He has brought to my attention the importance of price action. It is my belief that you must create your own trading style based on your trading personality and trying to use a system exactly as someone with the same results may cause you the trader to focus too much on how to follow a system and achieve those same results. He has also made me rethink my patience with the market and allowing the market to work for you rather than trying to make the market do what I want, if that makes any sense.<o></o>

<o> </o>

I just sat down and wrote this afternoon here at my office, so I didn’t put a tremendous amount of time into it, but these are my thoughts as I was sitting here and I thought it would good to look at what Mouteki has stated in the past and picked out what I thought were important points.<o></o>

<o> </o>

Any thoughts on this material would be greatly appreciated…<o></o>
  • #187
  • Oct 13, 2006 12:31am Oct 13, 2006 12:31am
Great job MNFX. Thank you for taking the time to do that!
  • #188
  • Oct 13, 2006 12:32am Oct 13, 2006 12:32am
Please forgive, trying to get as many eyeballs as possible here...

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfo...8617#post118617

HK

<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
  • #189
  • Oct 18, 2006 3:06pm Oct 18, 2006 3:06pm
My mouteki filter is pretty controversial but it works 99% of the time for me. I cut my t/p in half...you loose alot of potential profit, but you also protect yourself from ALOT of looseing trades. This is applied with the filter thats been discussed in this forum (dont open until you breach the close of the previous candle)
  • #190
  • Oct 18, 2006 3:29pm Oct 18, 2006 3:29pm
Quoting mestx41
My mouteki filter is pretty controversial but it works 99% of the time for me. I cut my t/p in half...you loose alot of potential profit, but you also protect yourself from ALOT of looseing trades. This is applied with the filter thats been discussed in this forum (dont open until you breach the close of the previous candle)
What pair? I still have to post my filter results, but I didn't try the t/p in half idea. I'll look and see.
  • #191
  • Oct 18, 2006 3:37pm Oct 18, 2006 3:37pm
it seems like head and shoulder pattern price projection = mouteki price projection. maybe td supply/demand lines only to be used for h&s pattern? anyway those h&s is wellknown as a reversal, (ghost pattern in woodies cci, its all the same)
  • #192
  • Oct 18, 2006 3:38pm Oct 18, 2006 3:38pm
Hello guys

Was Away....

So what are the <NOBR>official</NOBR> filters using right now..
Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
  • #193
  • Oct 18, 2006 3:45pm Oct 18, 2006 3:45pm
some charts from trading-naked.com :

http://www.trading-naked.com/FloorTr...tsforToday.htm

it mention about triangle pattern too, any price action guru help to elaborate valid triangle pattern etc please?
  • #194
  • Oct 18, 2006 4:45pm Oct 18, 2006 4:45pm
Quoting MaXeY
Hello guys

Was Away....

So what are the <NOBR>official</NOBR> filters using right now..
MaXeY - we are all guessing. No official anything. Some pairs just do not respond well to Mouteki, filters or not.
  • #195
  • Oct 18, 2006 4:49pm Oct 18, 2006 4:49pm
Quoting mestx41
My mouteki filter is pretty controversial but it works 99% of the time for me. I cut my t/p in half...you loose alot of potential profit, but you also protect yourself from ALOT of looseing trades. This is applied with the filter thats been discussed in this forum (dont open until you breach the close of the previous candle)
I wish y'all would quit calling this, "Mouteki", considering that he took this straight from the pages of Demark's book from 1994...

Sorry, on my soapbox. It's annoying to me and I'm not even Tom Demark.

Demark talks about using different price projections as an option. One of them is, instead of taking the high or low of the range in your calculation, you take the close of the high or low bar of the range. It's a bit more conservative, and I like it better from a mental perspective.

Also, I recommend nothing more than a 50 degree angle... maybe 45 or less. Anything more and it's probably going to fail.
Mr. Trend
  • #196
  • Oct 18, 2006 4:59pm Oct 18, 2006 4:59pm
Post #8 is an avatar rip-off if I have ever seen one



Quoting MNFX
I thought you enter right when the bar opens and do not wait otherwise you will have lost profits. This was my undrstanding anyways.
  • #197
  • Oct 18, 2006 5:08pm Oct 18, 2006 5:08pm
Quoting Mr Trend
I wish y'all would quit calling this, "Mouteki", considering that he took this straight from the pages of Demark's book from 1994...

Sorry, on my soapbox. It's annoying to me and I'm not even Tom Demark.

Demark talks about using different price projections as an option. One of them is, instead of taking the high or low of the range in your calculation, you take the close of the high or low bar of the range. It's a bit more conservative, and I like it better from a mental perspective.

Also, I recommend nothing more than a 50 degree angle... maybe 45 or less. Anything more and it's probably going to fail.
Mr. Trend, no offense to you and none taken here, but I just say Mouteki because it is easy for me to write and get my point across since it was his method that was posted and I studied. I can't say Demark because I have not read his book to know that, even if it is true.

After all, it is called the Mouteki Niche forum here at Forex Factory. It doesn't say Demark Niche Forum.

Maybe Mouteki modified Demark method, but if it aint strictly Demark, it doesn't belong to Demark. That's the way I see it, even if he should have acknowledged it at least.

Sorry for being on my soapbox.
  • #198
  • Oct 18, 2006 5:16pm Oct 18, 2006 5:16pm
Quoting llambert3
That's the way I see it, even if he should have acknowledged it at least.
And that's just it, right there. See, I don't care if you call it Billy Bob's Method -- just give props where props are due.

I've used Demark lines for awhile now, and it's just annoying when people don't say, "Hey, Demark is a stud and here's what I've done to modify it and make it my own..."

That's all I'm saying -- just give props. But he didn't. He just came up in here on the forums and got 5,000,000 views on a system that came from a book 12 friggin' years ago, and not even ONCE, did he mention it came from Demark.

And what annoys me more is that he's got this huge following and he didn't even create the darn system.

But that's ok. Look for a new Despair parody poster in my poster thread here soon that addresses these common occurrences on forums.
Mr. Trend
  • #199
  • Oct 18, 2006 5:22pm Oct 18, 2006 5:22pm
Quoting Mr Trend
And that's just it, right there. See, I don't care if you call it Billy Bob's Method -- just give props where props are due.

I've used Demark lines for awhile now, and it's just annoying when people don't say, "Hey, Demark is a stud and here's what I've done to modify it and make it my own..."

That's all I'm saying -- just give props. But he didn't. He just came up in here on the forums and got 5,000,000 views on a system that came from a book 12 friggin' years ago, and not even ONCE, did he mention it came from Demark.

And what annoys me more is that he's got this huge following and he didn't even create the darn system.
ok point taken. I just wonder if HE is Mouteki or there is another person he got the system from that changed Demark who was called Mouteki????. Then he may not had a clue about Demark. His screenname was Moutekitrader, which could mean anything.

And, no I am not trying to defend him. I wish he'd show back up and respond to our questions. Maybe he was only in it for the money. Who knows....
  • #200
  • Oct 18, 2006 5:23pm Oct 18, 2006 5:23pm
Quoting llambert3
Who knows....
I bet Merlin knows the truth about where he is and what happened.
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