Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2018/...zy-market.html

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2018
The Psychology of Trading a Crazy Market
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-F-qeI6pFp...s400/Loser.jpg
It's been a while since we've seen a VIX greater than 30. It's also been a while since we've seen three consecutive days where there have been fewer than 100 stocks across all exchanges registering new monthly highs and well over 2500 making fresh monthly lows. And it's been a while since we've seen fewer than 10% of all SPX stocks trading above their 3, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages. I recently wrote a Forbes article on what market history tells us about the paths of bear markets. Over this holiday period alone it has generated well over 40,000 hits. That tells us something about market psychology.

I recently participating in a podcast with J.C. Parets of All Star Trading. If you haven't checked out his series, I suggest you do so. You'll find a wealth of trading perspectives. In my session with J.C., we discussed how the volatility of markets can induce our own emotional and behavioral volatility. An important priority in trading crazy markets is doubling down on our own sanity. That means mentally--and emotionally--rehearsing being wrong on trades so that we are prepared to take the right actions if the stuff hits the fan. As a rule, the more we face the heat of battle, the more we want to keep a cool head. When we *anticipate* the losing trade, we allow ourselves to normalize it emotionally--and that helps us keep the cool head.

Indeed, it's not at all unusual that I will structure a trade that looks like it has momentum in its favor. I put on a price stop in case of reversal, but I also put on a time stop. If the move cannot materialize in a relatively short period of time, momentum on that time is not what I had expected. That itself may disconfirm my idea. Exiting the position for a modest loss can set up a trade the other way. In such cases the loss is a tuition we pay for valuable market education; a fee we fork over for useful information.

When we take the threat out of losing, we open the door to using losses as learning lessons that make us better. That's a great psychology for a crazy market!
Podcast With J.C. Parets
.Posted by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.at 6:50 AM

morning benj,

QUOTE FROM BENJ :Good Morning Forex Traders

I have just shorted 50 units of US30 (Dow 30)

There is RISK OFF this morning and many Geopolitical risks out there over the next 72 hours.

There is the bail hearing in Vancouver today concerning the woman business executive from China. There is major risk or reward if she is given bail.

We have the Brexit vote tomorrow.

We have Macron making a Major announcement in France today concerning the riots over the last four weeks.

THE QUESTION : on 12/26/18 trading time est,searching in finviz (maybe i missed something important news)

there are no risk on news,the first 4 hour (8 am-12 am est) us30/usdjpy in down move,xauusd/xagusd in upmove but after lunch time they behave contrarily (12 pm- 5 pm est) ,would please explain the situation that cause that move?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Good Morning

The answer to the question that you asked ...

THE QUESTION : on 12/26/18 trading time est,searching in finviz (maybe i missed something important news)

there are no risk on news,the first 4 hour (8 am-12 am est) us30/usdjpy in down move,xauusd/xagusd in upmove but after lunch time they behave contrarily (12 pm- 5 pm est) ,would please explain the situation that cause that move?

The answer to your question cannot be found in Finviz.

Europe stops trading in the Equity markets each day at 11:30 AM Eastern Standard Time.

The FTSE and the DAX and the CAC are closed then and so there is LESS Money Flow.

We also have short covering and closings of positions. The maximum money flow is between 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time and 11:30 AM when the major equity markets are open at the same time.

In these times where you can have swings of 1000 points in one direction and then it reverses the next day as we have today there are many factors.

Most traders and people that have money in the market do not understand why the markets (The Dow) went up over 1000 points yesterday. It was a balancing between the equity market and the bond market and pension holdings in the USA. I will post the article later that will explain this to you.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...FMJJE705k65rsc

Investors welcomed Kevin Hassett’s assurance that Jerome Powell’s job is “100 percent” safe.
But the biggest driver of today's exuberance appears to be actual pension rebalancing or front-running the pension panic.

SNIPPET:
Last Friday, when stocks were tumbling, we reported "some good news for the bulls" which was lost in the overall chaos over the latest mutual fund liquidation discussed earlier.


And no, we did not anticipate that President Trump would activate the Plunge Protection Team over the weekend: the good news in question was that as Wells Fargo calculated U.S. defined-benefit pensions fund would need to implement a "giant rebalancing out of bonds and into stocks" - in fact the biggest in history - with the bank estimating roughly $64 billion in equity purchases in the last trading days of the quarter and year, prompting the banks to ask if traders are about to make pension rebalancing "great" again.


Judging by today's market action, the answer is a resounding yes, even though as Wells warned investors and traders looking for a desperately needed respite from market gyrations "may have to deal with yet one more seismic bout of volatility before Dec 31 finally pops up on their calendar dials."


For those who missed our Friday post on the topic, Wells explained where this massive rebalancing comes from: the huge, end-of-quarter buy order was precipitated by the jarring divergence between equity and bond performances both in Q4 and the month of December. The stocks in the bank's pro forma pension asset blend had suffered a 14% loss this quarter, including about an 8.5% drop in December. Contrast this with a roughly +1.6% quarterly total return for the domestic aggregate bond index. The gap between equity and bond performance in pension portfolios would have been even larger had IG credit OAS not widened nearly 40 bps in Q4.


As a result of this need for massive quarter-end rebalancing, corporate pensions would need to boost their equity portfolios by as much as $64 billion into year-end. Getting a bit more granular, Wells analyst Boris Rjavinski wrote that domestic stocks – both large cap and small cap – may need disproportionately large boosts of $35 billion and $21 billion, respectively, compared to “only” $9 billion for global developed equities (see table below). This is driven by large performance gaps within equity markets: U.S. stocks have trailed global and EM equities in Q4 and December after outperforming the ROW for quarters on end.

I have much more to share with you on this subject so thank you for your excellent question and keep up your good work learning what you need to know.

It is trading experience and knowledge that you can only reach by actual trading of Forex with sufficient trading funds to learn with.

Happy New Year.


Benjaminis
BWM

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...EK4dYQ8-XIAwg/

Mother of All Sucker Rallies Sends Dow 1,000 Points Higher
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...yUClYhdnWhWftQ
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...%3Fversion%3D0
byMike Mish Shedlock13 hrs[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.38)]-edited[/color]


Following a brutal four days in a brutal month, stocks staged a massive rally. Alas, it won't last.

The Wall Street Journal reports Dow Industrials Leap More Than 1,000 Points.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 1,000 points for the first time in a single session Wednesday, rebounding after a bruising four-session selloff put the blue-chip index and the S&P 500 on the brink of a bear market.

All 30 stocks in the Dow industrials notched gains, as did each of the 11 sectors in the broader S&P. Shares of Amazon.com , Facebook and Netflix climbed more than 8%, while retailers rallied as early data on the crucial holiday shopping season appeared robust. And a nearly 9% rise in oil prices offered a respite for shares of beaten-down energy companies.

Verge of Bear Market?
The WSJ says the S&P 500 was "on the verge of a bear market".
I disagree. I claim the S&P 500 is in a bear market.
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...XkagNohYNRU8RA
Who's right?

Arguably, we both are. It depends on where you measure from.

The high of 2940.91 as shown in the above chart was an intraday high. The high the previous day was 2930.75. That was also the highest close ever. On a close-to-close basis the S&P only fell 19.78%

Is the WSJ ridiculously splitting hairs? Yes.

About Bear Market Rallies
Today was a typical bear market rally. I posted some charts on December 24: S&P 500 Slips into Bear Territory on Worst Christmas Eve Trading Ever


Yes Virginia, it's a bear market. Expect a lot more days like today, with everyone caught believing "the bottom is in", every step of the way.

The next real bottom will not be in until everyone is totally disgusted with the stocks and gives up. Demographically-speaking it will come at the worst time for boomers.

There was one and only one thing surprising about today: Trump did not yap about it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

https://www.birchgold.com/news/murky-2019-for-us-economy-thanks-to-feds-monetary-policy


From Birch Gold Group


December 19 marks the day the Fed may have decided it’s going “all in” on the idea of a “strong U.S. economy.”


The Fed locked in an increase of the Federal Funds Rate from 2.25% to 2.40%, and it will increase the primary credit rate to a full 3.00%. These December increases were pretty much anticipated back in early November.


The increases came in spite of commentary by Jeffrey Gundlach from Doubleline, who said the Fed shouldn’t have raised rates:

I don’t think they should… The bond market is saying there’s no way the Fed should be raising interest rates.

From here on out, things get murky, and that uncertainty could very well set the tone for 2019.

Let’s start with the Fed’s now-infamous “dot plot,” below (sourced from their December projections document):
https://www.birchgold.com/wp-content...c-dot-plot.png


As you can see in the “dot plot” above, chances are Federal Fund rates will be soaring over 3 percent in 2019. In 2020, there is still a good chance rates will soar even higher, nearing 3.75 percent. It also looks as though rates will stay at or above 3 percent for the foreseeable future.


That means credit is about to get (and stay) more expensive. Growth is likely to slow down, and the cost of commodities could rise dramatically.


In fact, according to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, food and most energy prices are already on the rise (emphasis ours):

Food prices increased 1.4 percent for the year ended November 2018. Prices for food at home increased 0.4 percent, while prices for food away from home rose 2.6 percent. In November 2018, prices for cereals and bakery products rose 1.3 percent, the largest 12-month increase among the six grocery store food groups.

Within energy, gasoline prices rose 5.0 percent for the 12 months ending November 2018, and fuel oil prices increased 16.1 percent. Electricity prices increased 0.6 percent and natural gas prices declined 2.1 percent.

But according to the Fed’s December statement, things are “roughly balanced.” If this is “balanced”, it would be interesting to see what the Fed considers out of balance.



It seems like Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hopes that people will just take his “spoonful of sugar” to help this bad tasting economic medicine go down.

The “Poison Pill”: Real Inflation and QE Unwind

The Fed, and the U.S. Government in general, doesn’t like to report real inflation. They report CPI inflation at 2.2%, which is missing energy and food costs (see chart).
https://www.birchgold.com/wp-content...tion-rates.png


As you can see in the “adjusted” chart, inflation jumped right after the 2008 financial crisis, and then again in 2016.

The Fed likes to create the illusion that 2% is somehow an ideal target. They call it their “symmetric objective rate.”


According to the Fed, so long as this target is “out there” and decisions are being made according to it, inflation will magically stay in line.


But when we examine real inflation with food and energy costs factored in, we see a completely different picture (see BLS chart below):
https://www.birchgold.com/wp-content...age-change.png


As you can see, real inflation was still trending upwards to the end of November 2018. We’re getting dangerously close to levels of inflation not seen since 2011. And with the cost of commodities already going up, it doesn’t look good.


Obviously the trend could change, like it did in November 2006 before spiking over 5% during the last financial crisis. Ultimately, no one really knows how this will play out, no matter how Chairman Powell spins it. Although Jim Cramer might have an idea (emphasis ours):

Let me put it very simply: Powell wants a slower economy than we have. He wants one that hurts Main Street… He has his reasons, but please, don’t go into denial here. The Fed is perfectly happy to gradually strangle … the U.S. economy in order to stamp out inflation.

And speaking of spin, all of that money the Fed printed up during its Quantitative Easing (QE) phase is being shed off in a plan that started back in late 2017. Powell calls it “balance sheet normalization,” except the balance sheet appears anything but normal.

The money being unwound has to go somewhere, and a chart from ZeroHedge paints another murky picture:
https://www.birchgold.com/wp-content...s-and-soma.jpg


As you can see, the Fed’s holdings (bottom graph) from unwinding their QE program don’t look so good. When the “piper has to be paid,” who knows what will happen.


So strap in, because 2019 is going to be a murky year.


Don’t Let the Fed’s Murky Plans Leave Your Retirement “Dead”

Wolf Richter explained the Fed’s stated objective well, and linked to their first “stability report”:

Preventing another financial crisis – or “promoting financial stability,” as the Federal Reserve Board of Governors calls it – isn’t the new third mandate of the Fed, but a “key element” in meeting its dual mandate of full employment and price stability, according to the Fed’s first Financial Stability Report.

If their objective is full employment and price stability, then they have a lot of work to do to ensure 2019 doesn’t make things worse.

Making sure your portfolio includes a diversified set of assets can help to keep it afloat. Consider gold and silver as part of any stable diversification plan. Especially when, traditionally, both assets perform well in “murky” markets.

Bureau of Labor and Statistics, federal fund rates, federal reserve, inflation, interest rates, jeffrey gundlach, jim cramer, quantitative easing, rate hike, us economy

From Birch Gold Group

December 19 marks the day the Fed may have decided it’s going “all in” on the idea of a “strong U.S. economy.”
The Fed locked in an increase of the Federal Funds Rate from 2.25% to 2.40%, and it will increase the primary credit rate to a full 3.00%. These December increases were pretty much anticipated back in early November.

The increases came in spite of commentary by Jeffrey Gundlach from Doubleline, who said the Fed shouldn’t have raised rates:

I don’t think they should… The bond market is saying there’s no way the Fed should be raising interest rates.

From here on out, things get murky, and that uncertainty could very well set the tone for 2019.

Let’s start with the Fed’s now-infamous “dot plot,” below (sourced from their December projections document):
https://www.birchgold.com/wp-content...c-dot-plot.png

As you can see in the “dot plot” above, chances are Federal Fund rates will be soaring over 3 percent in 2019. In 2020, there is still a good chance rates will soar even higher, nearing 3.75 percent. It also looks as though rates will stay at or above 3 percent for the foreseeable future.

That means credit is about to get (and stay) more expensive. Growth is likely to slow down, and the cost of commodities could rise dramatically.
In fact, according to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, food and most energy prices are already on the rise (emphasis ours):

Food prices increased 1.4 percent for the year ended November 2018. Prices for food at home increased 0.4 percent, while prices for food away from home rose 2.6 percent. In November 2018, prices for cereals and bakery products rose 1.3 percent, the largest 12-month increase among the six grocery store food groups.

Within energy, gasoline prices rose 5.0 percent for the 12 months ending November 2018, and fuel oil prices increased 16.1 percent. Electricity prices increased 0.6 percent and natural gas prices declined 2.1 percent.

But according to the Fed’s December statement, things are “roughly balanced.” If this is “balanced”, it would be interesting to see what the Fed considers out of balance.

It seems like Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hopes that people will just take his “spoonful of sugar” to help this bad tasting economic medicine go down.
The “Poison Pill”: Real Inflation and QE Unwind

The Fed, and the U.S. Government in general, doesn’t like to report real inflation. They report CPI inflation at 2.2%, which is missing energy and food costs (see chart).
https://www.birchgold.com/wp-content...tion-rates.png

As you can see in the “adjusted” chart, inflation jumped right after the 2008 financial crisis, and then again in 2016.
The Fed likes to create the illusion that 2% is somehow an ideal target. They call it their “symmetric objective rate.”
According to the Fed, so long as this target is “out there” and decisions are being made according to it, inflation will magically stay in line.
But when we examine real inflation with food and energy costs factored in, we see a completely different picture (see BLS chart below):
https://www.birchgold.com/wp-content...age-change.png

As you can see, real inflation was still trending upwards to the end of November 2018. We’re getting dangerously close to levels of inflation not seen since 2011. And with the cost of commodities already going up, it doesn’t look good.

Obviously the trend could change, like it did in November 2006 before spiking over 5% during the last financial crisis. Ultimately, no one really knows how this will play out, no matter how Chairman Powell spins it. Although Jim Cramer might have an idea (emphasis ours):

Let me put it very simply: Powell wants a slower economy than we have. He wants one that hurts Main Street… He has his reasons, but please, don’t go into denial here. The Fed is perfectly happy to gradually strangle … the U.S. economy in order to stamp out inflation.

And speaking of spin, all of that money the Fed printed up during its Quantitative Easing (QE) phase is being shed off in a plan that started back in late 2017. Powell calls it “balance sheet normalization,” except the balance sheet appears anything but normal.

The money being unwound has to go somewhere, and a chart from ZeroHedge paints another murky picture:
https://www.birchgold.com/wp-content...s-and-soma.jpg

As you can see, the Fed’s holdings (bottom graph) from unwinding their QE program don’t look so good. When the “piper has to be paid,” who knows what will happen.
So strap in, because 2019 is going to be a murky year.



Don’t Let the Fed’s Murky Plans Leave Your Retirement “Dead”

Wolf Richter explained the Fed’s stated objective well, and linked to their first “stability report”:

Preventing another financial crisis – or “promoting financial stability,” as the Federal Reserve Board of Governors calls it – isn’t the new third mandate of the Fed, but a “key element” in meeting its dual mandate of full employment and price stability, according to the Fed’s first Financial Stability Report.

If their objective is full employment and price stability, then they have a lot of work to do to ensure 2019 doesn’t make things worse.

Making sure your portfolio includes a diversified set of assets can help to keep it afloat. Consider gold and silver as part of any stable diversification plan. Especially when, traditionally, both assets perform well in “murky” markets.

Bureau of Labor and Statistics, federal fund rates, federal reserve, inflation, interest rates, jeffrey gundlach, jim cramer, quantitative easing, rate hike, us economy

thanks for the answer benj,

FROM POST 4530: I use RISK OFF if when North America Equity markets open at 9:30 AM New York Time as selling off. I also need to see the SP500 as selling off as well.

HOWEVER things can change in seconds so there are KEY Points to watch between 9:30 AM and 10:00 AM. This is option expiry at 10:00 AM each day and news releases at 10:00 AM if there are any. Then we use Charts (5 Minutes) to see Top and Bottom of Range. We only short if we sense Top of the Range. Can you post SCREENSHOTS of charts ?

FROM POST 4605 :Now we wait to see where we are near 8:30 AM , New York time to see if we have RISK ON or RISK OFF !!!

FROM POST 4762 :We have RISK ON for the moment. This can change in seconds. ( 9:09 am est)

FROM POST 4803 :Each Forex trading day I start reviewing around 5:00 AM New York Time if the day will bring RISK ON or RISK OFF


QUESTION : 1 -do you determine risk off/on by looking us30 chart and sp500, if between 9.30-10 am est these charts are down,so today is RISK OFF,on the contrary is RISK ON ?

2- any theme in news related to determine if today is risk on/off?

3- if there is any news related in determining risk on/off,how to formulating theme selection?

4- is there a day without risk on/off ( mixed day)



thanks benj

Good Morning PLEASE READ

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ops+to+zero%29

Good Morning

Your Questions ...


QUESTION : 1 -do you determine risk off/on by looking us30 chart and sp500, if between 9.30-10 am est these charts are down,so today is RISK OFF,on the contrary is RISK ON ?

Benjaminis: The CHARTS DETERMINE NOTHING. The Charts are just an XRAY of the PAST and the PRESENT. The only thing that the charts are useful for is to look at where the charts are as to supply and demand and to see what everyone else in the world sees. The charts are sometimes used to manipulate the traders. Please post any follow up questions that you may have.

2- any theme in news related to determine if today is risk on/off?

Benjaminis: The only theme is what type of news is out there that can be seen to be negative or positive.

3- if there is any news related in determining risk on/off,how to formulating theme selection?

Benjaminis: For this you need to follow the Money Flow which is determined by RISK OFF or RISK ON so if the Dow 30 is heading down WE have RISK OFF. Pretty Simple , Isn't it ?

4- is there a day without risk on/off ( mixed day)

In today's Forex trading environment there are wild swings both ways as we all can see.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ops+to+zero%29

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...type=3&theater

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...ld-conspiracy/

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...ld-conspiracy/

818
Blog/Politics
Posted Dec 31, 2018 by Martin Armstrong


I went to go watch VICE – the story about how Dick Cheney took over the government with the aid of his wife – Lynne Cheney. Vice is a film that seeks to bring complicated information about the inner corruption in Washington and transform it into a digestible and entertaining format. There is no question that Christian Bale delivered a very impressive performance of how Dick Cheney really is – a secretive and distant man whose eyes were always filled with naked contempt. Amy Adams gave a fantastic performance as well and captured the real character of the former Second Lady Lynne Cheney who was very much like her husband – ambitious, and equally just as ruthless.


While the film captures the reality of what took place, it completely misses the real story behind the scenes as to even how Cheney came to be Vice President. The film shows that he was out of politics and had effectively retired for some time. It pretends that George Bush called him to be his Vice President and they negotiate that Cheney will have most of the power and Bush was too stupid to understand what he was agreeing to.


https://d33wjekvz3zs1a.cloudfront.ne.../BradyComm.jpg

https://d33wjekvz3zs1a.cloudfront.ne...in-Beijing.jpg

As always, for whatever reason, I seem to be always in the middle of just about every major event for the past 30+ years. I have stated before that I was asked to fly around the country and meet with Republicans who wanted to run for President. Prior to 1999, they were told I was there to advise them on the world economy and how it functioned. I have been to White House dinners and testified before Congress. I have taken calls from Washington in times of crisis.

So meeting with people who wanted to run for President was nothing unusual for me. The real issue was not that I was giving them advice, but I was to assess whether they were capable of comprehending how the world functioned economically as well as politically. I was regarded as the unbiased adviser around the world. Europeans loved me because I was not one of them. They knew I would advise according to the cycles and markets. I cannot even bring staff with me to meetings in Brussels today for the problem because they are European and will have skin in the game. The same was true when I was asked to fly to Beijing during the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis.


The real story how Cheney got that power is significantly different from how the movie portrayed that aspect. It did a fantastic job in covering what he did once in power, with the exception of the meeting when 911 took place. The film portrays everyone in that room and its sources were correct in saying they were all confused but Cheney was more concerned about talking to his lawyer in that meeting. What I do know is that the first World Trade Center bombers were in MCC prison in Manhattan and they were given markers by the recreation officer Mr. Kumb. They drew on the walls of their cell the twin towers with planes flying into them one year BEFORE the incident. In creating Home Land Security, Congress merely stated that various agencies had information but did not share it with one another. Cheney had personal offices in all the agencies and I believe he knew well what took place on 911.



Video Player
00:00
01:50

The movie correctly portrays Donald Rumsfeld as his co-conspirator. Just the day before 911 on September 10th, the Inspector General reported that $2.3 trillion was missing from the Defense Department accounting. Rumsfeld stated before Congress an investigation was necessary. The next day, the plane that struck the Pentagon hit the precise room where all those records were stored.


https://d33wjekvz3zs1a.cloudfront.ne...r-938x1024.jpg

The World Trade Center 7 collapsed like a pancake when no plane ever touched it. That building has all the evidence of many things we will never know about.

I have 20 years worth of recordings that would have been enough to put all the major New York trading banks in prison. Tapes that admitted paying bribes to Russian officials and all sorts of market manipulations. All of those tapes from my case vanished that same day. I personally believe that Cheney knew what was in the works. The mere fact that the terrorists drew the WTC on the wall of their cell 1 year before and the MCC took pictures and made a big deal out of it tells me that information had been passed on.


Now to the issue of Cheney becoming Vice President. I was asked to go to Texas to meet with George Bush, Jr during the early summer of 1999. I was told that “this is different. He’s really stupid.” Up to that point, the entire process I was involved in was to assess the qualification of those who wanted to run for President. Suddenly I was told this was different. When I asked why would you make someone stupid President, the response was “he has the name.”


I was then asked if I would accept the position of Chief Economic Adviser in the White House. I was told BECAUSE Bush was stupid, which they pay well in the movie, that they needed to surround him with smart people. I declined because to take such a position meant I would have to shut down my operation. I said thanks, but no thanks.


The kingmakers who I would go visit potential candidates for selected the people to put around Bush. Cheney had been Chief of Staff so he knew the game.

He was inserted into the White House DELIBERATELY to be the default, President. The movie makes it sound that Bush Junior had to convince him to be his VP. That is absolutely NOT the way this selection process worked. They would NEVER have allowed the very person they said was “stupid” to select the people to run the country. They were selected to be the babysitters. I know this because I was one of the people asked and declined.

NOW YOU KNOW !!!

Good Morning

It is time for you to learn how to trade Forex using your Demo Account. Here are your last questions and post. It is important that you find one hour each day otherwise you will not learn very well. DISCIPLINE IS KEY !!!

 

1. Dec 29, 10:27am (45 hr ago)

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,240 Posts | Online Now

Quoting otnishan
thanks for the answer benj, FROM POST 4530: I use RISK OFF if when North America Equity markets open at 9:30 AM New York Time as selling off. I also need to see the SP500 as selling off as well. HOWEVER things can change in seconds so there are KEY Points to watch between 9:30 AM and 10:00 AM. This is option expiry at 10:00 AM each day and news releases at 10:00 AM if there are any. Then we use Charts (5 Minutes) to see Top and Bottom of Range. We only short if we sense Top of the Range. Can you post SCREENSHOTS of charts ? FROM POST 4605 :Now we...
Good Morning

Your Questions ...


QUESTION : 1 -do you determine risk off/on by looking us30 chart and sp500, if between 9.30-10 am est these charts are down,so today is RISK OFF,on the contrary is RISK ON ?

Benjaminis: The CHARTS DETERMINE NOTHING. The Charts are just an XRAY of the PAST and the PRESENT. The only thing that the charts are useful for is to look at where the charts are as to supply and demand and to see what everyone else in the world sees. The charts are sometimes used to manipulate the traders. Please post any follow up questions that you may have.

2- any theme in news related to determine if today is risk on/off?

Benjaminis: The only theme is what type of news is out there that can be seen to be negative or positive.

3- if there is any news related in determining risk on/off,how to formulating theme selection?

Benjaminis: For this you need to follow the Money Flow which is determined by RISK OFF or RISK ON so if the Dow 30 is heading down WE have RISK OFF. Pretty Simple , Isn't it ?

4- is there a day without risk on/off ( mixed day)

In today's Forex trading environment there are wild swings both ways as we all can see.

https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

https://finviz.com/news.ashx?v=2

Good Morning Forex Traders

We have RISK ON at the moment. I am tuned to CNBC and watching and listening. At any moment we could go from RISK ON to RISK OFF.

The discussion now with Fairlead Strategies is quite negative. Sell the market on rallies !!!

I watch and will be ready to go SHORT US 30 if the momentum changes to RISK OFF. I do not trade against the Trend.

The Trend is your friend.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ops+to+zero%29

China's official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 in December, from 50.0 in November, the lowest reading since February 2016; and the weakest reading for a December since 2008.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...31_3-58-09.jpg


Under the hood, it was just as ugly, as Goldman notes, both the production and new order sub-indexes fell in December. The production index declined to 50.8 from 51.9, and the new orders decreased to 49.7 from 50.4. Trade indicators continued to soften as well - the imports sub-index dropped 1.2pp to 45.9 and the new export order sub-index was at 46.6, vs. 47.0 in November. Both indexes were at the weakest levels since late 2015/early 2016.

The employment sub-index edged down slightly by 0.3pp to 48.0. Inventory indicators went down - the raw material inventories index was 0.3pp lower, and the finished goods inventory index dropped by 0.4pp in December to 48.2. Inflationary pressures eased meaningfully - the input price index dropped by 5.5pp to 44.8, the lowest level since December 2015, and the output prices index was 3.1pp lower at 43.3.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...0%288%29_0.png


Judging by the official PMI surveys, manufacturing activity growth may have softened further in December. One small caveat though is that NBS manufacturing PMI tends to fall in December (since 2010, on average NBS manufacturing PMI fell by around 0.1pp). The lower commodity prices may have also contributed to the decline in the headline manufacturing PMI reading. Trade data may have continued to slow in December, as implied in the low readings of trade indicators under PMI. Weaker external demand combined with trade tensions have contributed to the slower trade growth.


“The next few months will be crucial to the Chinese economy’s direction and policy focus. Signs of domestic demand bottoming have yet to emerge. External pressures may accumulate, with exports possibly slowing as the front-loading effect wanes.”
--Chang Shu and David Qu, Bloomberg Economics.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...31_4-10-42.jpg


Of course, all this bad news prompts the stablishment's knee-jerk goldilocks response that this is good news because government will be forced to unleash more stimulus:
Goldman: "we continue to expect accommodative policy stance to support overall growth (in particular we expect lower interbank rates and more RRR cuts in 1H next year)."


"The slowdown will continue into the next year," said Larry Hu, a Hong Kong-based economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd.
"The weak PMI could result in more government stimulus to shore up the economy."


However, as we noted previously, it is not working!!
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...10-39-06_0.jpg
All of which leave us asking - Is Trump winning?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ops+to+zero%29

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,
December 19 marked the day the Fed may have decided it’s going “all in” on the idea of a “strong U.S. economy.”


The Fed locked in an increase of the Federal Funds Rate from 2.25% to 2.40%, and it will increase the primary credit rate to a full 3.00%. These December increases were pretty much anticipated back in early November.


The increases came in spite of commentary by Jeffrey Gundlach from Doubleline, who said the Fed shouldn’t have raised rates:
"I don’t think they should... The bond market is saying there’s no way the Fed should be raising interest rates."
From here on out, things get murky, and that uncertainty could very well set the tone for 2019.


Let’s start with the Fed’s now-infamous “dot plot,” below (sourced from their December projections document):
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...c-dot-plot.png

As you can see in the “dot plot” above, chances are Federal Fund rates will be soaring over 3 percent in 2019. In 2020, there is still a good chance rates will soar even higher, nearing 3.75 percent. It also looks as though rates will stay at or above 3 percent for the foreseeable future.

That means credit is about to get (and stay) more expensive. Growth is likely to slow down, and the cost of commodities could rise dramatically.
In fact, according to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, food and most energy prices are already on the rise (emphasis ours):
"Food prices increased 1.4 percent for the year ended November 2018. Prices for food at home increased 0.4 percent, while prices for food away from home rose 2.6 percent. In November 2018, prices for cereals and bakery products rose 1.3 percent, the largest 12-month increase among the six grocery store food groups.


Within energy, gasoline prices rose 5.0 percent for the 12 months ending November 2018, and fuel oil prices increased 16.1 percent. Electricity prices increased 0.6 percent and natural gas prices declined 2.1 percent."
But according to the Fed’s December statement, things are “roughly balanced.” If this is “balanced”, it would be interesting to see what the Fed considers out of balance.


It seems like Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hopes that people will just take his “spoonful of sugar” to help this bad tasting economic medicine go down.
The “Poison Pill”: Real Inflation and QE Unwind

The Fed, and the U.S. Government in general, doesn’t like to report real inflation. They report CPI inflation at 2.2%, which is missing energy and food costs (see chart).
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...tion-rates.png


As you can see in the “adjusted” chart, inflation jumped right after the 2008 financial crisis, and then again in 2016.
The Fed likes to create the illusion that 2% is somehow an ideal target. They call it their “symmetric objective rate.”
According to the Fed, so long as this target is “out there” and decisions are being made according to it, inflation will magically stay in line.

But when we examine real inflation with food and energy costs factored in, we see a completely different picture (see BLS chart below):
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...age-change.png

As you can see, real inflation was still trending upwards to the end of November 2018. We’re getting dangerously close to levels of inflation not seen since 2011. And with the cost of commodities already going up, it doesn’t look good.


Obviously the trend could change, like it did in November 2006 before spiking over 5% during the last financial crisis. Ultimately, no one really knows how this will play out, no matter how Chairman Powell spins it. Although Jim Cramer might have an idea (emphasis ours):
"Let me put it very simply: Powell wants a slower economy than we have. He wants one that hurts Main Street… He has his reasons, but please, don’t go into denial here. The Fed is perfectly happy to gradually strangle … the U.S. economy in order to stamp out inflation."


And speaking of spin, all of that money the Fed printed up during its Quantitative Easing (QE) phase is being shed off in a plan that started back in late 2017. Powell calls it “balance sheet normalization,” except the balance sheet appears anything but normal.
The money being unwound has to go somewhere, and a chart from ZeroHedge paints another murky picture:
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...s-and-soma.jpg


As you can see, the Fed’s holdings (bottom graph) from unwinding their QE program don’t look so good. When the “piper has to be paid,” who knows what will happen.
So strap in, because 2019 is going to be a murky year.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa.../murky2019.png


Don’t Let the Fed’s Murky Plans Leave Your Retirement “Dead”
Wolf Richter explained the Fed’s stated objective well, and linked to their first “stability report”:
"Preventing another financial crisis – or “promoting financial stability,” as the Federal Reserve Board of Governors calls it – isn’t the new third mandate of the Fed, but a “key element” in meeting its dual mandate of full employment and price stability, according to the Fed’s first Financial Stability Report."
If their objective is full employment and price stability, then they have a lot of work to do to ensure 2019 doesn’t make things worse.

https://www.bloomberg.com//news/arti...rnd=markets-vp



U.S. stocks are looking scary after their worst year in a decade. Credit is risky too. Volatility is back. For many, cash and short-term debt may be the best place to go.


As fund company executives, portfolio managers and strategists at some of the world’s biggest money managers turn to 2019, they’re cautioning that returns could be muted across asset classes. They’re also urging investors to be increasingly selective in the quest for value. Here’s a sampling of views.

Jurrien Timmer
Fidelity Investments, director of global macro

1. U.S. earnings growth will slow to 5 percent to 7 percent in 2019, the Fed may raise rates once or twice more, and the price-earnings ratio of the stock market will start the year at a reasonable point.
2. Bonds look all right in this environment. Stocks should do better than they did in 2018. The best opportunity should be in emerging market stocks, which have lagged far behind their U.S. counterparts.
3. “If you add it all up, it’s not a bad story for stocks -- maybe not double-digits, but better,” Timmer said in a Dec. 13 interview.

Emerging Value
EM price-earnings ratios are a relative value to the S&P 500
Source: Bloomberg
*MSCI EM Index, 2019 is forecast
Rob Lovelace
Capital Group, vice chairman and equity portfolio manager

1. Watch out for device companies, such as Apple Inc., that are great until they stop being great because they lack product diversity. By contrast, Samsung Electronics Co. isn’t just devices and handsets but also creates other necessities, such as memory chips.
2. Be a stock picker rather than buying the index. For example, there is groundbreaking work around the world in biotech and pharma companies in the area of cancer therapies and personalized treatments based on body chemistry. Rather than focus on specific companies, we invest in multiple companies in the sector, as one will have an amazing breakthrough and another will have a stage-three drug that fails.

Kristina Hooper
Invesco Ltd., chief global market strategist
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/...Q/v0/-1x-1.jpg
Kristina Hooper
Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg

1. Buy emerging-market equities, tech stocks, global dividend-paying stocks and alternative assets, such as real estate, private equity and commodities -- especially gold.
2. Sell or decrease U.S. equities, consumer discretionary stocks in particular.
3. “My base case is decelerating but solid growth globally, with the U.S. decelerating as well. I also expect tepid but positive global stock market returns. However, the ‘tails’ are getting fatter as risks, both positive and negative, increase. For example, a quick resolution of the trade war with China could push global growth higher and also push stock market returns higher -- especially if the Fed become significantly more dovish. Conversely, an escalation of the trade war with China could put downward pressure on global economic growth and likely push stock markets lower as well -- particularly if the Fed is less dovish,” she said in a Dec. 27 email.

Dan Ivascyn
Pacific Investment Management Co., group chief investment officer

1. Beware of rising volatility, widening credit spreads and a flattening yield curve that are indicating an economic downturn within 12 to 24 months.
2. Increase cash positions now to await opportunities, such as wider spreads and overshooting to the downside in corporate debt. Potential opportunities are found in U.K. financials, after valuations sank amid fears about a chaotic Brexit, which Pimco believes is a low-probability event.
3. “We are beginning to see a few select opportunities around credit, but we remain concerned about credit in general,” Ivascyn said in a Dec. 13 Bloomberg Radio interview.

Jeffrey Gundlach
DoubleLine Capital, CIO and CEO
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/...M/v0/-1x-1.jpg
Jeffrey Gundlach
Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg

1. Avoid U.S. stocks and corporate debt, and steer clear of long-term Treasuries as rates are likely to resume rising amid swelling U.S. deficits.
2. Best bets are high-quality, low-duration, low-volatility bond funds.
3. “This is a capital preservation environment,” Gundlach said in a Dec. 17 interview on CNBC. “Unsexy as this sounds, a short-term, high-quality bond portfolio is probably the best way to go as you head into 2019.”

Steeper Curve
Bond-yield forecasts show faster-rising U.S. long-term rates
Source: Bloomberg data

Richard Turnill
BlackRock Inc., global chief investment strategist

1. In equities, we like quality: cash flow, sustainable growth and clean balance sheets. The U.S. is a favored region, and we see emerging market equities offering improved compensation for risk. In fixed income, we add U.S. government debt as ballast against late-cycle risk-off events. We prefer short- to medium-term maturities.
2. In a total portfolio context, steer away from areas with limited upside but hefty downside risk, such as European stocks.
3. “We see a slowdown in global growth and corporate earnings in 2019 with the U.S. economy entering a late-cycle phase,” he said a Dec. 10 note to clients.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ops+to+zero%29

Authored by Michel Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,
Was 2018 everything that you expected it to be? Every year contains surprises, but 2018 truly turned out to be a year that we will never forget. Over the past 12 months we witnessed great political shaking, Wall Street experienced the worst downturn that we have seen since 2008, the crust of our planet was rattled by an increasing number of major seismic events, social decay spread like wildfire, and America continued to become even more divided as a nation. In comparison, 2017 was rather bland and boring, and I truly believe that one day we will look back on 2018 as a major turning point.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...lic-Domain.jpg


It is amazing that 12 months has flown by already. It seems like the years just keep getting faster, and perhaps that is because we are all getting older.
In any event, the following are 44 numbers from 2018 that are almost too crazy to believe…



#1 One study found that the average American spends 86 hours a month on a cellphone.
#2 A different study discovered that 37 percent of all Americans have eaten fast food within the last 24 hours.
#3 90 percent of the beer that Americans drink is produced by just 2 gigantic corporations.
#4 McDonalds feeds approximately 70 million people a day globally. Pornhub gets more than 78 million visits a day.
#5 60 percent of all Americans actually believe that they have seen a ghost.
#6 The middle class continues to decline, and at this point half of all American workers make less than $30,533 a year.
#7 During the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats were able to pick up 40 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Those that were forecasting a “red tsunami” were completely and totally wrong.
#8 Kevin Spacey’s incredibly creepy YouTube video entitled “Let Me Be Frank” in which he promises that he will never be held accountable for his actions has already been viewed more than 8 million times.
#9 Since 2007, the total amount of student loan debt in America has nearly tripled.
#10 The suicide rate in the United States has risen by 33 percent since 1999.
#11 Suicide is now the second leading cause of death for Americans from age 15 to age 24.
#12 Netflix recently made a deal to renew streaming of “Friends” for another year for 100 million dollars.
#13 According to the United Nations Population Fund, 40 percent of all births in the U.S. now happen outside of marriage. But if you go back to 1970, that figure was sitting at just 10 percent.
#14 13 million households in the United States do not always have enough food to eat. So if you have enough food to eat every day, you should consider yourself to be very blessed.
#15 According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, almost 1 out of every 4 children in rural areas is currently living in poverty.
#16 At this point, almost 52 percent of all children live in a home that receives monthly help from the federal government.
#17 Over half a million people are homeless in the United States right now.
#18 Today, a million Americans are living in their RVS, and that number is rising with each passing year.
#19 Social decay is clearly evident even in our most prosperous cities. One recent investigation found 300 piles of human feces on the streets of downtown San Francisco.
#20 62 percent of all U.S. jobs do not pay enough to support a middle class lifestyle.
#21 In 1980, the average American worker’s debt was 1.96 times larger than his or her monthly salary. Today, that number has ballooned to 5.00.
#22 Over half the country now receives more in government transfer payments than they pay in taxes.
#23 According to one recent study, the “rate of people 65 and older filing for bankruptcy is three times what it was in 1991”.
#24 More than 100 churches in the United States are dying every single week.
#25 If you go back to 1986, just 10 percent of all young adults were “religiously unaffiliated”, but now that number has jumped all the way to 39 percent.
#26 According to one recent survey, Americans from the age of 18 to the age of 29 favor Democrats over Republicans by a 66 percent to 32 percent margin.
#27 One study found that one-third of all American teenagers haven’t read a single book in the past year.
#28 The number of married couples with children in the U.S. just reached a 56 year low.
#29 In the city of Baltimore, approximately one out of every four babies is born as an opioid addict.
#30 According to the New York Times, approximately 110 million Americans have a sexually-transmitted disease right now.
#31 It is being projected that the total amount of plastic in the oceans of the world will exceed the total weight of all fish by the year 2050.
#32 90 percent of all seabirds in the world now have plastic in their stomachs. Back in 1960, that number was sitting at just 5 percent.
#33 In August, we learned that the number of global earthquakes over the last 30 days had risen to a level that was 50 percent above normal.
#34 In September, an all-time record high seven named storms were swirling across the globe simultaneously.
#35 In October, we witnessed the third largest single day point crash in stock market history on the exact same day that the third most powerful hurricane in U.S. history made landfall.
#36 In November, the Camp Fire destroyed 14,000 homes and businesses in northern California. It was the most destructive wildfire in the history of the state.
#37 According to the official Twitter account of Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire, they had wind chills of between -70 and -75 degrees on Thanksgiving morning.
#38 In the aftermath of the magnitude 7.0 earthquake that rattled Anchorage, the state of Alaska was shaken by more than 1,400 earthquakes.
#39 In early December, the largest earthquake in 45 years hit eastern Tennessee.
#40 During the last full week before Christmas, the Dow fell 1,655 points. That was the worst week for the stock market since the financial crisis of 2008.
#41 The National Retail Federation was projecting that total Christmas spending would surpass $465,000,000,000 in 2018. Only 25 countries on the entire planet have a GDP that is greater than that number.
#42 In 2017, the Dow was either up or down by 1 percent or more just 8 times. In 2018, it happened 64 times. Volatility has returned to Wall Street in a major way, and that is a really bad sign.
#43 A recent survey of corporate financial officers discovered that 82 percent of them believe that a recession will have started by the end of 2020.
#44 During 2018, the U.S. national debt increased by nearly 1.4 trillion dollars. We are now almost 22 trillion dollars in debt, and there is no end to our debt problems on the horizon.

Good Morning

I put on one trade of 50 units of US30 (Dow 30) because the SP500 is only up 4 or 5 points and it looks like US30 is coming back towards 100 points up.

I put a LIMIT OUT of $500 US dollars.

Now I am FREE tp do other things as the markets decide.


BWM

I used $3000 US dollars of margin and now have closed my one Forex trade for today.

My Trade plan worked perfectly as I took a profit of $479.25 US dollars from the time that I entered the trade at 11:04 AM and just closed it now at 11:33 AM.

The total balance in the account is now $51,157.50 US dollars after doing just 3 Forex trades.

The FXCM UK Demo Account with $50,000 US dollars in it was created on December 24, 2018. In one week of Forex trading with just 3 trades made the ROI (Return on Investment) is over 2% so reaching 5% which is my goal for Forex traders using my unique method can be reached.

You need to have DISCIPLINE and be serious.

If you have the skills then you could become very wealthy during 2019.


Benjaminis
BWM

Happy New Year 2019

I have finished all my Forex Trading for 2018. GREAT YEAR !!!

Happy New Year 2019.....