GBPUSD technical and fundamental analysis

Hanging onto longs. Protected with B/E stops. A few trades got taken out Friday by b/e stops.

Still long, can’t go short unless it breaks 1.2476 low.

Bounced off of the Yearly S1 (1.2458), it it break below 1.1250 it'll go to 1.2244.
The rejection off of the 1.2500 level shows there is protection (money) at that level.

ACRONYMS;
BO ; Breakout
TRI-ASC ; Ascending Triangle
TL ; Trendline
MVA; mean value area, between 10 & 20 EMA

From the analysis above. GBPUSD looks prime for beautiful short but...this thing has some hidden bullish intent everywhere.
W1 Stochastic is Oversold with Bullish Divergence, that red line!
H4; Ascending Triangle break, even if on low volume, its festive period, so expected volume drop
D1; Bullish close above that sloping Trend line.

Summary;
Do nothing for Now! GBPUSD seems trapped between 1.2475 and 1.2700. If you like short-term play, i think likely it is shorting to Support 1.2525. I think it will do one more drop to that support then the bulls that supported its there at 1.2525 as Forex66 points out will show their hand more boldly. Or if they dont show up, and it does Daily closes below 1.2500, then the shorting goes.

Entry made after rejection at the Supply area where the significant drop is originated.
Based on BBMA, that is the area where there is strong selling momentum.
Meanwhile, there is compression in making.

There might be a chance that the a Higher High will be created and that will eat up my BE. Finger crossed.

Nice entry GYMC. I am currently pushing my PA Trading Style on this kinda of Entry style. Very risky but RRR can go as much as 10 - 15R. But I do not like any play below 4R or so. Referring to this short you played, better get out early, say 1.2525, before bulls display their support.

I've just made entry of this kind on GBPJPY buy, with projected 18R. I know it is insane, I'll manage the trade along the way without strangling it see if it is achieveable. I call this kinda entry anticipatory Entry....you pick your entry price based on analysis before price even gets there!

Yup, my TP is placed at 1.2575 actually.

Got stopped out on my longs. Have gone long again.

Might be silly to say this, but given GBP/BREXIT atmosphere, instead of GBP long term trade, look to do EURUSD trade. They are twin pairs! They are both in descending wedge! So why not wait till they breakout? That way you avoid those small silly losses. Going further, if you are intra day trader, most are, drop to M5 or M15 and do your thing, quick in quick out.

Well that has been my limited(to my trading style) wisdom...I am sure they are ppl that will tell me they are making money off those ranges...I do not disagree....

Well said Danasa… although I must disagree with one thing – there is nothing like twin pairs.

Gbpusd weekly chart understanding.
we are in middle of the downtrend channel.
we are with in 1.25 to 1.20 levels.
Price rejected 1.25 levels and go down.
Post your view about the current market conditions.
Price is below 200ema, 21 ema and 8 ema.
Its seems like Down pressure still present in weekly chart.

In Daily chart of GBPUsd
we see price break the down trend channel and price go to 1.25 level
price fall form 1.25 levels.
Now market is trying to climb up 3 day marked tried
Market hold above 1.2280 levels after 3 day rejections form this level market could not close above 21 day moving average.
Price is bellow 200 ema, 20 day moving average, If market brake this 1.2280 level Market will go down more.
Let see how today NFP affect the market. If market hold 1.2280 Market move up to 1.25 levels.
Yesterday daily candle was bullish but, This bullish candle is not strong bulish candle it was kind of confused bulish candle.

H1 chart is quite interesting.
Market break out from down channel.
Price create Head and shoulder pattern.
Price is above 200 eam.
seems like market could move up.
Bad NFP could help the pair to move up.

GBP/USD rallied on Thursday as it followed through higher on the back of its Wednesday gain. Support lies at 1.2350 area with a break below that level turning attention to the 1.2300 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.2250 level where a violation will shift focus to the 1.2200 level. Below here will open the door towards the 1.2150 level. On the upside, resistance is located at the 1.2450 with a break above there allowing for morel strength to build up toward the 1.2500 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1.2550 level followed by the 1.2600 level. On the whole, GBP/USD retains its corrective upside pressure.

US DOLLAR FORECAST OVERVIEW:
Based on the Eurodollar contract spreads, there is a 60% chance of a 25-bps rate cut by the end of the year – much less aggressive than Fed fund’s implied probability of 92%.
The area where the DXY Index found resistance this week was the trendline helping constitute resistance in the longer-term bearish rising wedge – an ominous topping pattern that persists.
Retail trader positioning suggests that the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Looking for longer-term forecasts on the US Dollar?

Even though the US-China trade war in a short-term truce, there is concern that it may only be a temporary reprieve, and that the damage may already be done: PMI readings from around the world suggested that the global economy is in the worst shape in a decade. Or, the global economy hasn’t been on this kind of weak footing since the Global Financial Crisis.

US TREASURY YIELD CURVE FLASHING WARNING SIGNS
With global growth fears dominating investor sentiment this week, there has been a steady demand for lower yielding currencies and safe haven assets. To no surprise, US Treasury yields have dropped quickly as investors shift funds into ‘safer’ assets. After some of the worst stretch of US economic data in recent memory – a ten year low in US ISM Manufacturing, three-year lows in US ISM Services, CEO & CFO confidence, and a six-month low in US retail sales -- concerns over aUS recession are rising again.

Watching Monthly chart and Hoping Market will move very high.

weekly chart trend line telling the price you have to go throw me. I am standing alive here.

The pound’s rally could have a lot further to run if a Brexit deal is secured -- and far to fall if talks fail next week.
Traders are the most bullish on record for the U.K. currency over the next month after the European Union’s chief negotiator recommended Friday that detailed talks can begin in earnest. The currency saw its biggest two-day rally in a decade to touch $1.27 and the gains could extend up to $1.30 if a divorce deal emerges, according to Mizuho Bank Ltd.

Brexit