Trading Journal (only my take)

Update....no trigger yet to take the short on for me and I may have missed the boat.. however. imo though, conditions are still very good as the market continues to manoeuvre itself into position and strengthens my belief that a stronger sell off will occur upon a retracement to the levels previously shown and patience should then be rewarded with decent returns and all in accordance with my simplified tap of course!

Staying with EJ, the 129 level is obviously significant and has been for a while. Market reaction there has occurred numerous times in the past and it's likely to continue. So, whilst I have a sell-off in mind as previously mentioned, I think that an opportunity to take a buy on has now presented itself with decent enough scope to make it worthwhile and I shall be looking to take a long entry nominally around the 129 area.

When we look at these types of forums, we constantly see hindsight gurus spouting off about what they did and what they won...whooppee do da.

It is, or it should be, plainly obvious that it's practically all rubbish and and nothing more than wasting time.

Forum members looking for inspiration. really need do only one thing to sift out who to follow, and that is list only those that predict where the market is going ( ideally accompanied with a live posted trade to support their view), and not where it's already been, and then refine that list further over a series of trades based upon the outcomes. By applying that approach, you will find that you will have a very skinny list of course, perhaps only 3 or 4, if that, but it will be a quality list nevertheless.

The benefit will be obvious, minimal time wasted looking at all the hogwash nonsense everywhere else, and instead focusing only on the refined list of posters, from which a much higher chance of learning and profit will be made, which I presume is the goal of everyone on here, except of course the hindsight gurus that is haha

Entry into a market, any market, is obviously just a click, that part is easy. Remember, no one is cute enough to get the entry perfect and I mean no one. The thing is we don't have to be perfect, we just need to be good enough, and from which we can build additional positions when conditions suggest and then it should be a case of simply believing in your own chosen system to manage and to produce consistent overall profit.

A number of positions are likely to be signaled in my case, and for me. the important thing is always ease, which means all of that can be done with or without struggle, I prefer the latter because I've yet to see a complicated method improve upon my own simple tap and ftl methods.

Pretty much all technical trading needs some kind of reference from which a trade decision can then be made. Most use that kind of reference in one form or another, whether it be a level, a point or whatever in order to gauge a potential trades probability of success.

The reference of choice for anyone is of course vast, which isn't actually a problem providing the trader understands what their chosen/preferred reference represents and thereafter what conditions also need to be present before any trading action is implemented.

It sounds obvious what I've said I know, but the majority seem to over-complicate what should be a straightforward process, by adding all kinds of stuff and which then serves to only confuse and cast doubt in their thinking.

There is no doubt in my mind that everyone who struggles to win suffers from over-complication and indecision. The way I look at charts for example. eliminates as much unnecessary noise as possible, leaving me with only information to make a valid judgement as outlined above.

Whether any trade wins or loses is neither here nor there in my case tbh, it's what happens over a series of trades that matters, when applying the same ritual time after time and is my recommended course of action for the strugglers out there.

Trading is a probability game and the more successfully proven any method is, then obviously the more reliable that method must be.

Personally, I deal in simplicity, where the odds are in my favour for a positive outcome overall. For example, I don't know where the next bar or candle is going, and I don't much care, because I'm backing general direction, and that gives me far greater tolerance of movement, rather than concerning myself with bars and candles.

Most seem to think, (probably due to indoctrination..ie brainwashing etc), that they are capable of foreseeing the future by reading what a candle or 2 is doing or has done, but not me.

For me, a trade needs tap in order to qualify, either as a retracement trade entry, or a continuation. That isn't to say all other methods out there are necessarily inferior, it simply says instead that my simple proven method competes with anyone elses complex methods, and I don't have any ambiguity issues regarding the placing of orders or not...in other words, if it qualifies it's ordered, whether it triggers though I can't say for sure, because sometimes the orders leave without me.

I may throw out more trades/charts in the new year, we'll see, but attached is a typical chart of AN h4 in this case where I will be looking to place 2 pending longs as shown. My mm is individual to me, as it is or should be to everyone....no one can say where stops or tps should go!

Hello Landline,

I would like to participate in your thread. I have a short position on GBP/USD.

Thanks

Hello,

I have a pending long trade on EUR/CAD.

Thanks

Hello,

I have a long position on Copper.

Thanks

Am I a buyer, seller or neither.... what more is there a need to know!

Make a decision, there's only 3 choices after all. Once a decision has been made, then run with it. Broadcasting whatever decision you make makes no difference other than to add more pressure on yourselves. Hence why 99% are hindsight ft's using demo pretend money...time-wasting gurus lol.....they are everywhere you look!

Easy to spot...usually mouthy, usually love the sound of their own voice, they love to write reams of twaddle, all in all they don't really trade real money but nevertheless feel they have an identity somehow hiding behind their pointless and substanceless numerous posts.

Imo there often seems a demographic theme, either directly or indirectly....you can figure that out...personally, if it's obvious enough to me, I steer clear of that kind.

That's enough for this month.....

So much trivial repetitive nonsense bandied about, it makes you wonder whether anyone actually has time to trade lol.

Take the ongoing debates for example of using indicators or not.

The fact is, that literally everything seen on a chart is supposed to help guide the decision to trade. Yes, this means everything you see, including candles, bars etc, which are of course in themselves indicators!

It follows therefore, that it's impossible to trade without references, or an indication if you prefer, much of which are candles in the majority of cases, which means of course that everyone using a chart, is by definition, using indicators.

I am no different in that respect, although candles are nothing more than unnecessary noise imo, which seem to add confusion to most peoples decision making, I mean does it matter what a candle looked like 20 or 30 candles back...imo no.

The debate will repeat itself over and over again there's no doubt, with people getting out of their pram as usual across the globe....I've no idea why that is, especially as everyone is anonymous to one another on here, I could understand it if we personally held these debates face to face with people we know!

As primarily a swing trader, I operate on the probability of a successful outcome via the criteria that I personally use.

Obviously, not all outcomes succeed, but in my case, records over a long time supports my simple approach, allowing me to take trades in the knowledge that I will always be profitable over a given set of trades.

Of course, I don't know which ones will win or lose, but I don't care either, because I know I will be in profit in any given month, and from a business pov, that is all that matters.

For example, I am looking at a number of pairs at present that interest me. EU is high on my radar to buy today. I won't bother with a chart to show, as that normally generates too many questions etc, but at the core is always tap. from which I make an educated assumption what the market may then do.

Will be looking to long NJ this week somewhere in the region as shown, in anticipation of a decent haul (+300 pips or more expected), which I'll manage accordingly.

The vast majority of traders clearly like to over-complicate trading, somehow managing to make a reasonably easy decision of whether price is likely to move up or down into a FF of unnecessary science.

This is more obvious with those that trade small t/fs tbh, and it's no wonder that none of those kind of traders ever succeed.

That alone should tell everyone that these 1 minute wonders will only ever succeed in failing over a period of time.

The daily, 4 hour and to some degree the 1 hour charts are really where the best trading decisions are derived from and also happens to be the easiest and most reliable.... pretty much anything less becomes guesswork/gambling.

This will not stop the 1 minute wonders of course talking tripe about LL, LH, HL etc, structure, sr, sd blah blah blah gobbledygook hocus pocus, whereby after all their silly analysis they may, if they are literally lucky, win 35% of the time for pitiful returns and then blaming things like news or absence for their failure.

Longer t/f trading has more or less no news barriers btw, excepting NFP, Fed Hikes, war etc, and most of these have already been factored in in any case. This means that what is seen on the chart can be read with a higher degree of confidence of course and therefore a higher chance of success, notwithstanding that realistic stops and targets will be necessary.

A good swing trader is never pinned to his chair, never anxious, is always patient and more often than not profitable!

I trade in the direction of what I consider is an established direction and is the foundation of any trade that I would take which should generally answer the question that has been asked of me.

I look to get the best prices to enter my trades upon particular retracement points. That is the essence of my style. The lower t/fs only serve to encourage the vast majority to trade unwittingly with noise, which imo is ridiculous and nothing more than a 50-50 chance with no edge whatsoever.

The job is to be profitable, end of.

My way suits me perfectly and is by no means the only way, but those that trade the silly t/fs will never make it and the reasons must surely be abundantly obvious by now to most people I'd have thought. Similarly, people completely over-analyse, thinking that all their calculations must pay and that they have defined the perfect entry....wrong thinking. The market rarely lets anyone have a perfect entry, it is designed to fool us all, and that means healthy and realistic stops are part and parcel of a solid method.

Incidentally, I hear people talking all the time that 1000's of hours screen time is required to become a profitable trader. That's simply not true (even though I have actually done so myself).

The fact is, at least imo, is that anyone who is prepared to listen to someone who has proven their method and their mm, can learn enough within 2 or 3 months to become consistently profitable themselves.

That's enough from me for now.

Wow....a quick look at the forums, and super-egotistical dummies are everywhere trading their demo rubbishh, with the even dumber sheep following lol. You can tell the type a mile off...so many give aways.

The site has definitely gone downhill and of no use other than entertainment imo...it's all mickey mouse stuff with one type dominating in the main...huff n puff garbage

The only objective of trading is straightforward....to make profit of course.

Imo it can be done the hard way or the easy way.

The hard way involves small t/fs and the easy way longer t/fs.

OK, all that is obvious up to that point.

That said, so far as I am concerned, the same approach needs to apply irrespective of t/f, but obviously a monthly chart trumps a weekly chart and a weekly chart trumps a daily chart, so on and so forth all the way through the different t/fs.

The higher the t/f, then naturally the more reliable the signals become. So far none of this is new rocket science, everyone must know all that already i'd hope.

In practical terms, which really means what is nominally realistic and sufficiently reliable in terms of the t/f to trade versus the time required to generate a tradeable signal....well for me that is the daily chart, because that nicely satisfies the aforementioned criteria quite adequately.

I'll move on with this maybe later today or during the week.

Other obvious stuff needs to be considered before proceeding.

There are 2 aspects to trading from a chart. Firstly, technical and secondly financial....both aspects eventually become combined, but in a sensible order. Many get themselves cluttered and confused because they concern themselves with both parts at the outset.

I will focus on the technical aspect for the time being, simply because nothing else in (terms of orders placed) can happen until that aspect is satisfied.

So, regarding the charts, it should be understood that they are essentially comprised of 2 axis' ie time and price. This means therefore, that what is seen on a chart can be seen as spatial awareness, and where boundaries are found, and it is knowing where these boundaries are, that allows a trader to start building a strategy.

Btw, I am not interested whatsoever in over-complicating anything I do with trading. The complex systems I see all over these kind of forums are quite frankly not tradeable imo for a number of reasons, and in any case, why bother with complex when easy does just as well if not better and without the hassle.

I'll come back to this later

Creating a workable chart, ie one that only captures the elements of interest is the first step in the chart building process. It will be different for everybody of course.

I will use NZDUSD for this part on a daily chart, and gradually build and show an image at each stage so that the concept sinks in to anybody interested.

I will briefly say at this point that candles and to a lesser degree bars are not particularly interesting to me especially on higher t/fs, and I've touched on my reasons for this in the past. I prefer line charts as part of the references I use, much cleaner and no confusing candles to think about (remembering that everything seen on a chart btw are actually references, which includes candles, bars, line charts etc) . The job is about making a chart simple whilst still containing what is needed to know.

Ok, so this is what a basic chart looks like. Can much be determined from it?....not really, it looks like its in a range and that's about as much that can be said about it.



Another reference is obviously needed, in other words, we need to know where the area of interest is, and there are numerous ways/tools that can do that. I will use the standard Zig Zag found on most platforms.
Getting better....we now have some directional reference at least.



I'll come back later, some may want to absorb/review so far.

The last swing cycle (via zig zag) is now identified, but the best containment of that swing though also needs to be captured (which are the boundaries I've mentioned before) so the zoom level in this case has to be adjusted.



Now the spatial containment is present, this, remember, is a daily chart, and for swing trading, a few more references are needed in order to make an informed decision, which I'll move on to next time.