Beige Book paralysis | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Defeating Paralysis Analysis 12 replies

What is A book vs B book in Forex trading? 30 replies

Beige Book results 0 replies

Beige Book 1 reply

Beige Book paralysis

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 12, 2006 9:16am Oct 12, 2006 9:16am
Comatose currencies. I guess we wait for the beige book.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #2
  • Oct 12, 2006 9:47am Oct 12, 2006 9:47am
The currencies are far from comatose; we've seen a fascinating result from the TB today. The $ bulls who have been in the market since last friday have remained there; we have not seen the profits taken to any significant degree. When the TB came out $-, after the initial spike, more $ bulls came into the market to support their positions. That was the cause of the retrace. Evidence is there that right now-there is a lot of smart, professional money in the market that is remaining $ bullish; so much so that they haven't taken their profits from last friday.


If the currencies remain "comatose" up till the BB release, that means they believe that either the BB will be $+, or that a $- report can be supported by them. Let's see how it goes...
  • #3
  • Oct 12, 2006 9:51am Oct 12, 2006 9:51am
This report comes out 8 times a year, but will it make a large impact on current prices? It shows as being a not so moderate news report, what is your thoughts?

Monarch
  • #4
  • Oct 12, 2006 10:03am Oct 12, 2006 10:03am
News, I agree whole heartedly with ur analysis... first off we had a major neg number and the dollar has held its ground that is simply awsome... with the overall bearishness on the weekly and daily charts any up move now could basically just represent a retracement in an overall downtrend. There is heavy resistance now forming at the 8600 level above current price...

Price has rallied to the 38% retracement from 8700 to the most recent swing low and dropped back down... A definite add in type more for the professional traders used to build a swing or position trading setup.

The move out of this zone if and when it happens might be quite explosive.
  • #5
  • Oct 12, 2006 12:01pm Oct 12, 2006 12:01pm
enoc2g-When you say there "resistance" at a certain level-what exactly causes you to form that opinion?
  • #6
  • Oct 12, 2006 12:05pm Oct 12, 2006 12:05pm
Basically rejection off the 38 fib from the most recent run down... resistance at the 8600 level...
  • #7
  • Oct 12, 2006 1:18pm Oct 12, 2006 1:18pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
The currencies are far from comatose; we've seen a fascinating result from the TB today. The $ bulls who have been in the market since last friday have remained there; we have not seen the profits taken to any significant degree. When the TB came out $-, after the initial spike, more $ bulls came into the market to support their positions. That was the cause of the retrace. Evidence is there that right now-there is a lot of smart, professional money in the market that is remaining $ bullish; so much so that they haven't taken their profits from last friday.


If the currencies remain "comatose" up till the BB release, that means they believe that either the BB will be $+, or that a $- report can be supported by them. Let's see how it goes...
NewsTrader,

When I say comatose, I mean not moving. The market today is, well, not moving.

I have no enthusiasm for the dollars strength. I am not 5 yards long from May. Although that would be nice.

I can only profit if this pig moves and it ain't movin'.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #8
  • Oct 12, 2006 1:24pm Oct 12, 2006 1:24pm
Hmm... Either:

1. traders took a rest after the TB number... look at USD hours after the release - it fell

2. beige book was boring as FXOpportunist said "not moving"
  • #9
  • Oct 12, 2006 1:30pm Oct 12, 2006 1:30pm
my sentiments exactly....did not trade the release itself, and so what a boring day it's been...........slide over to the Comedy Club thread for some cheap thrills
  • #10
  • Oct 12, 2006 1:30pm Oct 12, 2006 1:30pm
Its a good thing we the Factory to keep un occupied while i stare at the price feed... 119.43.......119.44.............119.43..............119.44..............119.43........
(two hours later) 119.44........119.43...........119.44..........19.42... YAAAAAHOOOOO it moved.


Quoting FXopportunist
Comatose currencies. I guess we wait for the beige book.
  • #11
  • Oct 12, 2006 1:32pm Oct 12, 2006 1:32pm
After reading the Beige Book I find it mostly positive. I like the idea that tourism is up. I would think this would be one of the first areas that would drop if american vacationers were uncertain. Auto sales being down is a little concerning seeing how the new models are out. In general I think it reads as generally stable and thus no need for any rate changes at all.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #12
  • Oct 12, 2006 2:25pm Oct 12, 2006 2:25pm
Quoting Typruss
Its a good thing we the Factory to keep un occupied while i stare at the price feed... 119.43.......119.44.............119.43..............119.44..............119.43........
(two hours later) 119.44........119.43...........119.44..........19.42... YAAAAAHOOOOO it moved.
Thanks for the humor Typruss! I had the same situation with GBP/USD and what most irritates me is that i sold exactly inside that channel (it moved around 1.8567 and 1.8550 for about 6 hours!!!!!!) I went short on Cable and Long on USD and hated to come back to my screen and see that 1.8566......1.8567.......1.8565........1.8567 AGAIN??????? Man, that Resistance line tested like 25 times in one afternoon!!!!

So, the experts around (FxOpportunist?) any shot on the News tomorrow? Was the Beige book Dollar positive??? That was my impression after reading it, but there where no new Dollar buyers.

Peter.
  • #13
  • Oct 12, 2006 2:33pm Oct 12, 2006 2:33pm
Predicting really isn't my specialty petercross. I will say that the dollar is at the top of its range and occurs to me to be overbought. While I never rule anything out, I would be surprised to see it go higher.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #14
  • Oct 12, 2006 3:15pm Oct 12, 2006 3:15pm
Quoting FXopportunist
Predicting really isn't my specialty petercross. I will say that the dollar is at the top of its range and occurs to me to be overbought. While I never rule anything out, I would be surprised to see it go higher.
Dumb question here:

I dollar is overbought and wont go "higher", does that mean the GBPUSD chart won't go lower?

I get confused when peope speak of only one currency.

Thanks
  • #15
  • Oct 12, 2006 3:16pm Oct 12, 2006 3:16pm
Another dumb question:


What the hell is a Beige Book, and where can I read it?

Thank you velly mucho.
  • #16
  • Oct 12, 2006 3:28pm Oct 12, 2006 3:28pm
Quoting cici
Dumb question here:

I dollar is overbought and wont go "higher", does that mean the GBPUSD chart won't go lower?

I get confused when peope speak of only one currency.

Thanks
you got it...pound is showing strenght against the dollar at present, but the question becomes, can it break convincingly through the 8600 level?
  • #17
  • Oct 12, 2006 4:12pm Oct 12, 2006 4:12pm
Quoting cici
Another dumb question:


What the hell is a Beige Book, and where can I read it?

Thank you velly mucho.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/b...12/default.htm

The above link is the beige book

The link below is a must too. You can also sign up to have all reports sent to your email upon release.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents.htm
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #18
  • Oct 12, 2006 4:20pm Oct 12, 2006 4:20pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
The currencies are far from comatose; we've seen a fascinating result from the TB today. The $ bulls who have been in the market since last friday have remained there; we have not seen the profits taken to any significant degree. When the TB came out $-, after the initial spike, more $ bulls came into the market to support their positions. That was the cause of the retrace. Evidence is there that right now-there is a lot of smart, professional money in the market that is remaining $ bullish; so much so that they haven't taken their profits from last friday.


If the currencies remain "comatose" up till the BB release, that means they believe that either the BB will be $+, or that a $- report can be supported by them. Let's see how it goes...
i like how you think man. this is the style i favor also. im not sure what you would call it...its not technical analysis, not really fundies either...its like market player analysis. big traders and hedge funds move the market, so i find that if you think about the traders behind the price moves you can really get in a groove and things start to make sense. oil is the perfect example, everyone is specualating on all this shit of why oil is going down. but it comes down to one very simple thing > the longs are in trouble.
Relax and be happy.
  • #19
  • Oct 12, 2006 4:22pm Oct 12, 2006 4:22pm
Quoting cici
Dumb question here:

I dollar is overbought and wont go "higher", does that mean the GBPUSD chart won't go lower?

I get confused when peope speak of only one currency.

Thanks
The pound can do whatever its economic circumstances dictate. In itself its value is not dependant on the U.S. dollar. However, since this is the FOREX FACTORY, you will find that most times when people refer to the pound here, they are refering to the GBP/USD currency cross. Once you take that into consiederation, I will offer you this: The U.S. Dollar is KING. So expect it to have the major influence in the major currency crosses. While both country's economics will move the markets, Dollar data will typically cause far more movement.

FXO
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #20
  • Oct 12, 2006 4:24pm Oct 12, 2006 4:24pm
btw, is anyone not yet convinced that the dollar strong? for the past two weeks i have been waiting for something to beat the dollar down, but it has not come. just wait until we actually get some good news
Relax and be happy.
0 traders viewing now