The Equilibrium, a key to success!

[quote=DonSergion;11783821]Hello dear traders, Hello bionics. Many thanks to the author for the work done.

Hello DonSergion,

Thank you, I am convinced that our work has been worthwhile. We now have a framework that allows us to visualize supply and demand in the chart, which we can now build on. Here is a little example:



From June 2017 to August 2017, we had a very strong demand market in the D1 chart. Within this very strong demand market, there were two very strong candle movements at points A and B. This resulted in two zones. You can see how well the price has reacted to this zone.



Now, looking at the current H4 chart, we can see (blue arrow) that in zone A has a very strong demand zone . This strong demand zone is a very good sign of a future further uptrend. Very interesting are the supply and demand zones if you look at them in smaller time units. I will publish some examples in the next few days.

I wish you another successful trading day and a nice evening.

best regards

Sustainable zones are crucial


Hello dear subscribers,

Another nice example of what happened in the last 2 hours from 7:00 - 9:00 CET. To better represent the zones, I used a 5 sec chart.



Against 7:00 CET this morning, a strong and sustainable offer zone has formed at point 1 and the price has gone down. The course was then turned up. At point 2, a strong and sustainable demand zone emerged at the beginning of the uptrend. The price continued to rise and at point 3 there was also a strong demand zone which was not as sustainable as point 2. Due to the strong and sustainable zone at point 1, the course at point A has now been turned down. The course went straight into the strong and sustainable zone of point 2 and was again turned up. The price performance at point 4 was strong, but no longer sustainable. At point B, the course was again turned down.



After that the course went down 18 pip. However, the price development was only strong but not sustainable. For that reason, things went up again afterwards. Nevertheless, the zone at point 1 still had an influence on the course.

Pay attention to how sustainable a zone is. The more sustainable the zone the more sustainable the subsequent trend.

I wish you a successful trading day.

Greetings

The most efficient currency pair

Hello dear traders,

On the way to becoming a successful trader you have to make many decisions.

Which system do I use? Stock, Future, CFD or options? Which platform? Which broker? Personal money management. Optimal workplace design. Just to name a few things. When these key issues are resolved, it's essentially about what to trade? Commodities, stocks, indicia, or currency pairs, the offer is very diverse. For me the essential aspect was to find a market that is highly frequented. This is clearly the currency market. But within this currency market, there are an awful lot of currency pairs. Today I would like to show you how I proceeded in the selection of my optimal currency pair. If you want to dance and really party, you will rather choose a club or a nightclub which is highly frequented. Being alone on a dance floor will not be fun. It is the same in the foreign exchange market.

If you've ever traded stocks, you'll know that: you want to go to the market at a certain price, but at that price, there are no sellers. So you have to accept a higher entry price to get into the market. The whole thing will be extreme when the course goes down. You want to sell fast but there are no buyers who buy you your stock at this time. This has already cost many investors head and neck. The Forex market generates $ 6 trillion in sales each day. The six largest currency pairs (majors) of which manage just under 4 trillion dollars. Let's take a closer look at the majors.



On the right side you can see the use of the individual currencies in the years 2001-2016 which were traded within different currency pairs. From 2001-2016, an average of $ 3.5 trillion per day was traded on the foreign exchange market. The dollar was always involved in 88% of the cases. The euro and the yen are also interesting for me.

On the left side are the six main currency pairs listed. With the dollar, the euro and the yen being the most widely used currencies, it is not surprising that EURUSD and USDJPY are among the most traded currency pairs. I have now examined the average pip in these individual currency pairs in seven time units from M1 to D1. For that I used the average of the last 1,500 candles in each time unit.

The term volatility refers to trading price changes over a certain period of time. The greater the extent of price changes, the higher the perceived volatility. Higher volatility currency pairs are considered riskier as price movements, whether down or up, are larger in comparison to similar, but less volatile, currency pairs.
It is striking that the volatility of the individual currency pairs are relatively close to each other with the exception of the GPBUSD. Here there is a deviation from the average over all time units of 50%. That's why this currency pair GPBUSD is the riskiest for me in the majors field. This leaves two currency pairs, EURUSD and USDJPY, with high liquidity. The volatility of the EURUSD over the measured period is about 20% higher than the USDJPY.

An average of 82 Pip per day, 14.5 Pip per hour and 1.5 Pip per minute are achieved in EURUSD per day. It does not matter if the price is up or down. Since the price fluctuates in seconds and the minutes candles do not always go up or down, you can roughly assume that between 4000 and 5000 pip per day in fluctuation in the EURUSD will be achieved. However, this is different from day to day. The USDJPY is therefore between 3,200 and 4,000 pip fluctuation.

Another important aspect for me is the unpredictability of the share price. Let's take 23 June 2016 as an example. On that day, the price went down sharply. EURUSD = 500 pip, USDJPY = 772 pip and GPBUSD = 1,760 pip. The most extreme example is certainly the EURCHF on January 15, 2015 with 2200 Pip within seconds. If you did not use a guaranteed stop there, it could be very bad.

Another very important point is the history database of the individual currency pairs. At EURUSD I have stored up to 54,000 candles. I am able to go back 1 month in the M1, 5 months in the M5, 15 months in the M15, 30 months in the M30, 60 months in the H1 and in the H4 and D1 47 years. This is excellent in terms of supply and demand, as I work with reference courses.



As already stated, my main system is supply and demand and I think a traceable loss is preferable to an unexplainable gain. I have focused my screens exclusively on the EURUSD and receive up-to-date and very important information through my help indicators. A permanent switch to other currency pairs is eliminated and is therefore very relaxing. I have often traded the strongest currencies against the weakest currencies in earlier times, but I did not succeed as well as with supply and demand.

As we have already noted, there is no up and down in the EURUSD and therefore no middle. But there is demand and supply and, in the case of unity or uncertainty, equilibrium. The current price therefore has no relevance for me. In the same way, I do not pay attention to volume. In a market where there is no top or bottom, only the demand or supply is the limit. A price can never be oversold or overbought, so for me, indicators like the RSI are a relic of the past. The price always moves up or down in wavy lines, so I do not care if the EURUSD costs 0.50 or 1.60. We then earn money when we identify a demand market and get on time with a BUY order and exit at the latest when the price enters a strong supply market. We then earn money when we identify a supply market and get on time with a sell order and exit at the latest when the price enters a strong demand market. That's the only secret, but unfortunately that's not always that easy. We do not fight against other market participants in this market, but only against ourselves. When you enter into a trade, you should know in advance what will happen. With supply and demand that is conditionally possible.

If you have focused on a currency pair, there are a few days where the price is sideways or with less volatility. However, that's just an advantage if you're a scalper in terms of demand and supply. In these sideways markets, it's great fun to trade the ups and downs. Even though it is usually only 20 pip up and down.
Currency pairs are influenced by external factors that affect the value of the currency. The EURUSD is subject to fluctuations caused by different key interest rates, which are determined by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). Any market impact of the ECB to strengthen the euro would most likely lead to a rise in the value of the EURUSD. If, on the other hand, the Fed tried to strengthen the dollar by influencing the market, the value of the EURUSD would probably fall. Bigger pauses I only do when the Fed or ECB give out a new information. However, I can draw on the basis of the resulting extreme price movements again very interesting zones that are very important for the next few days.

The trading hours are optimal
There is less volatility between 06:00 and 08:00 CET, but it is always very interesting to trade, as there are often clear trends during this time. At around 08:00 CET, volatility rises, after which there is often a minor correction. I'm waiting a bit between 08:00 and 09:00 CET, with the London open, there is often a clear trend direction. From 9:00 - 11:30 CET you can make very interesting trades. It's often quieter between 11:30 and 13:30 CET. Time to relax. From 14.00 CET it will often continue with high volatility until sometimes 20:00 CET. I earn my pay between 6:00 to 11:00 CET, in the afternoon you can risk something. Outbreaks I rarely do. If I have identified a possible resistance zone and believe that the course goes through, I have to go in before. If it is a fake outbreak, I have earned nothing but nothing lost. When the course goes through, I did everything right.

Important: I do not pay attention to news, opinion from other traders and standard indicators during my trading. That would only dissuade me from the path.

Summary:

For each currency pair, other factors are more important than for equities or for gold. Behind it is always a variety of information, news and investor behavior. Keeping this in view for many currency pairs at the same time and being guided by it is impossible. The EURUSD is not necessarily an exciting currency pair, but a very reliable one. Security will never exist in this market, but if I compare all currency pairs, the EURUSD is one of the safest currency pairs I can trade. That does not mean that once in this currency pair there can be an extreme rash up or down. Here you can protect yourself only with a guaranteed stop or a professional trading account.
In the EURUSD, the price / performance ratio of liquidity, volatility, unpredictable price movements, data history, speed of entry and exit and the predictability of the price development are right. In the area of supply and demand for me the best recommendation.

The EURUSD is the most traded pair in the Forex market. It is commonly regarded as the most important and most liquid currency pair, as the euro itself is considered the world's second most important reserve currency (after the US dollar) and the second most traded on the forex market. These factors make it easier for me to make decisions. That's why EURUSD is my first choice.

I wish you a great weekend and a great start to trading next week.

best regards

What happened if...? The mirror strategy!

Hello dear traders,

Today I would like to post something interesting for reflection. As we all know, more than 90% of all traders lose more money than they gain over time.



This is confirmed by most brokers even in writing on their website. But why is that and is not there a quick uncomplicated solution? If you want to learn football in an association, you start a beginner course and work your way up through experience and dedication over the years. On the stock exchange or in the interbank market, there is unfortunately no beginner's course, every participant immediately plays in the Super Bowl and how that ends, is already on the website of the brokers. The fact that so many beginners dare to compete against the elite of the financial market is often due to the fact that advertising in the media makes trading very easy. When the Internet greatly simplified the stock market, trading was still a very complicated process. In order to make it easier for the beginner, indicators have been developed that should give the beginner a simple picture of the opaque market. The beginner is thrilled and looking at the past price history, it actually looks very easy. In addition, the profits and the prospect of a beautiful life beckon. But why does the dream come true for only a few?

The stock market and the interbank market are a bit comparable to the game Dodgeball, which certainly many know. Two teams play against each other with the aim of hitting the opponents' players with the ball so that they are eliminated in order. Agility, meeting and safety, endurance and speed are in demand. The playing field is the stock exchange, on one side are the buyers and on the other side are the sellers. The ball is the course price. If you hit the ball and the ball touches the ground after that, you are at a loss from the market. If you get hit by the ball and you catch it, you are still in the game or profit from the market. The ball is now thrown back and forth, the price goes up and down. The longer you are in the game, the higher the chance that you will be hit. When a big player enters the field, he never comes alone. Suddenly 100 men are on the field and all throw the ball at the same time on the opposing team. You think that's not fair?

Is it fair that a big player pushes the price up 30 pip and after pushs the price down 60 pips in seconds, so you were not able to make profits or close your stop? Everyone tries to play a game in a way that wins. Losing a game may be about honor, but in the stock market it's about a lot of money. The big players not only determine the market, but they are definitely the better players. From 250 trading days, Goldmann Sachs has been making 225 days profit and only losing 25 days.



I calculated this slide roughly. In 25 losing days, Goldman Sachs lost $ 775 million and won $ 13,950 million on 225 days. This is $ 31 million per loss day and $ 62 million per profit day.



Pay-off ratio

There are dealers who have a hit rate of less than 40% and still make a lot of money. The secret, they have optimized their payout ratio. It means making sure that the winners are bigger than the losers. A payout ratio of 0.2 means you'll need 5 winners in the event of a loss to get back to 0. A payout ratio of 1 means that if you lose, you need 1 winner to be 0 again. The lower the pay-off rate, the higher the probability of a total loss. Expected value = profit rate * (average income) - loss ratio * (average losers)

In our case, expected value = $ 52.7 million per trade, whether they win or lose. I think that makes clear which opponents we have to deal with. Should one be afraid of it now? No, but maybe a little more respect.

If you have 2 options (buying or selling) and in 90% of all cases wrong, you must do the opposite to improve your odds.


Maybe you know that: You are standing in front of a door trying to press it on. It does not work you realize that you have to pull the door. The trading is similar, the course is always against you. Whenever you want to pull the door, you realize that the door has to be pressed open or vice versa. When you stand in front of the mirror and take an object in your right hand, the mirror looks as if you have the object in your left hand. Take this principle once for a trial in the CFD area.



We now assume that our test trader belongs exactly to this category, which suffers a loss in 90% of all cases. We reprogram his trading buttons. If he presses on buy a sell order is given up and if he presses on sell a buy order is given up. He works with the same stops as always and we expect his stops to be adjusted to the current volatility.

What will happen?

Possibly, profits will increase and losses will be reduced. The danger is that the test trader will eventually know that when he presses on buy, in fact, a sell order is abandoned and when he presses on sell, a buy order is actually abandoned. This can cause him to press buy if he really wants to sell or vice versa. Then he is back where he once started, at 90% loss. But the idea is not completely stupid. If the losses are higher than the profit, one would only have to consistently do exactly the opposite to succeed.

The big players know that most traders are predictable. However, if these traders would do the opposite of what the big players expect them to do overnight, something very interesting would happen. The traders would no longer be stopped at the crucial zones, but the big players would now take these traders on their journey up or down. As a result, the big players would not reach their destination so quickly. Whether they would notice immediately, I doubt, since very few traders would take such a strategy.

It would be interesting for some traders, who are affected by 90% loss, to try this strategy once. The first step, programming the buy and sell order bar. Then I would try this strategy with a demo account. Try that, you can not lose anything, just win.

I would not take part in it because I act differently anyway than most expect. This means I would lose more with the mirror strategy than I win. If I want to buy, I would like to also press the buy button and not have in mind that I actually have to press the sell button.

And that's what the secret of being a successful trader seems to be: doing exactly what you should not do according to the trading textbooks. Maybe that's a good sign if 90% of traders tell you that you're on the wrong path and that your path will never work. That's exactly why I took my own path many years ago and did not follow existing laws. So far, no strategic path has been developed to be success in the long term. At the moment, I would call my success pure luck, which is certainly favored by an "different than others Strategy". Decisive for me, it is my approach to describe concretely and to explain myself. This will take a while, because I have not am a member of FF for a long time to solve the mystery.

That 90% of all traders loosing, just proves that you have to do exactly the opposite to be successful. Perhaps the mirror strategy could be a short-term solution for some traders. I'm curious.

With a wink, I wish a nice weekend

Lovely wishes

How to make a resistance zone smaller?


Hello dear traders,

Today I would like to show you how to determine and reduce concrete resistance zones with the help of the Bionics supply and demand indicator.



We are in the D1, from May 2016 to December 2018, the Bionic supply and demand indicator is set to 8/4/2. At point A, you see a strong demand zone that pushes the price down. At point B, a strong demand zone followed, which brought the course up to point C. Thereafter, a sideways market was created with an Equilibrium.
Between point A and point C, we mentally draw a resistance zone because the supply market started there and the demand market was terminated there.
From June 20 to August 1, 2017, there was a very strong demand zone at point D. This demand zone was so strong that it severely disrupted our intellectual resistance zone. This Zone D is so strong that the price that will later go down in a supply market will accept this demand zone as resistance. And that is exactly the question, how can we determine the course of 12 November 2018 on the basis of the resistance zone D exactly. First we mark zone D with a blue background and then look at this zone in H1.



The blue background now represents our zone D. The zone has been stretched for a better overview. In this zone D we notice two very strong zones, which we mark with E and F. As we know, strong price movements always break through strong zones. Our task now is to find the concrete resistance zones of Zone E and F.



First, let's take a closer look at Zone E. We can see by the yellow arrow that a very strong day candle breaks through a resistance zone. Since we can not pinpoint this resistance zone at this time, we take the entire bullish candle minus the last pullback.



According to the same principle, we record a possible resistance zone within the demand zone F. Since we can not pinpoint this resistance zone at this time either, we take the entire bullish candle minus the last pullback.



We now switch back to the overview D1. We can now see in this overview how the price reacts to our resistance zones. At point 1, the course is turned up. When the price of 1.255 goes down, it is exactly the second time that it is turned up in that zone. Afterwards, a sideways market develops, whereby this zone continues to react as a resistance zone. With point 3, a strong supply zone breaks through our resistance zone for the first time. In the direct connection at point 4, the course comes back again. At point 5, we can see very well how the resistance zone holds. Finally, at point 6, with a strong supply market, the price breaks through our zone. When returning, this zone is accepted at point 7 as a resistance zone down. Starting at point 8, the course enters our resistance zone at point E for the first time and has since been in a sideways trend.



Now, looking at this overview in H4, we see that our resistance zone E is 64 pip in total. In order to enter a reasonable trade here, we must reduce this zone significantly. Let's take a look at what we need to do to get the 12 November 2018 demand trend right.



For this, let's take a look at our already drawn zone E in chart M 15. Here we can already see that the upward candle is already much smaller than our marked zone. However, we would not get a very big advantage.



We stay in chart M 15 and change the setting of our indicator to 3/2/1. If we take a closer look at the course of 1.2 and 3, we can derive two concrete resistance zones from it. The strong upward candle at point 4 breaks through exactly this determined resistance zone. With this help, we are able to reduce the resistance zone from 64 pip to 12 pip.



Looking at Chart M 15 on November 12, 2018, we can see how exactly our zone; the price was turned and goes up. Our guess was correct.



In chart H1 we now look at the complete process. In the lower section you can see how we have reduced the resistance zone from 64 pip to 12 pip. So far we know that within the yellow zone there is a very strong demand zone. Now we can determine a possible offer zone according to the same principle. Here we work out two zones A and B. The zone B is 140 pip away and would have brought a risk-profit ratio of 1:12, while the point A would be 260 pip away and would have brought a risk-profit ratio of 1:21. Basically, I do not recommend completely exhausting the resistance zones. Personally, I would always plan my exit somewhat below these zones.

Of course you can also reduce the zones a bit, in which you can view the zones in the M5 or M1. As a result, the stop can be significantly reduced again. The only problem with that is that it will cause more supply zones that confuse me once more.

Anyway, it's a question of risk taking and how long you want to stay in the market to reach a specific goal. The longer you are in the market, the higher the likelihood of loosing some of the profits again. Nevertheless, you realize that you can choose concrete trades with the help of supply and demand , usually a few days before. By determining supply and demand zones, not only the stop but also, specifically, the risk-profit ratio can be determined. Thus, I can see at a glance whether the trade is worthwhile or not.

Unfortunately, not all trades can be planned so well, but it often helps, if I know within which trend phase I am. As a result, trades can be planned more efficiently. I am aware that this procedure is very complex, but I find it very exciting if you have the freedom to choose your trades. With demand and offer that is conditionally possible.

I wish you a nice evening

best regards

Hello Bionics,
In the zip file of post 833, there is the indicator "69FT Line Chartex4",
it doesn't work when I put it on a graph,
What does he trace?
please tell me how to install it

Thank's

Hello Mchl13,

It is Post 813, I've searched now and did not understand what you mean. It is a line indicator with which you e.g. the high and low can show. Here you can get information and download the indicator.

https://www.mql5.com/de/market/product/11210

best regards

The secret of the supply and demand zones


Hello dear subscribers,

With our project number 4 we succeeded for the first time in presenting supply zones and demand zones in color on the charts. In order to gain an advantage and to prepare concrete trades, this is what we are going to talk about today.



On the picture you can see the EURUSD in the daily chart. Once I deliberately renounced the candles and only drew the supply zones and demand zones. Between March 2016 and December 2018, you will see point A as a strong and highly sustainable demand market. Within 37 days, the price has risen by 790 pip.



I have now enlarged this demand zone and inserted the day candles with the Bionic Chart. On the left side you can see the typical Bionic Chart on the right side of the Bionic Chart in a simpler presentation. (Without pullback you can see the highs and lows faster.) Within a supply or demand market, there are strong and weak zones. When the market returns to a supply zone at the end of the demand market and goes down again, the strong zones of the previous demand market are crucial as they have a very high resistance potential. You have to imagine this as a magnet if you try to bring two identical magnet zones together. These zones repel, and the stronger these zones are, the sooner the repulsion of the magnets occurs.

Within this demand market I have marked the two strongest zones. These are two very strong day candles. However, this should be considered as a rough example, because the zones with 180 Pip are not small. Of course, they still need to be downsized, how it work, I will concretely show. After we have drawn the coarse zones, we now go back to the overview and look at how the course reacts on or in these zones.



We are now in the overview from June 2017 to December 2018 in the daily chart. The areas A and B marked by us were marked by me with a blue zone. The reaction of the course to these resistance zones is very interesting and I already have write about it. In another strong demand market the course ran to 1.255, there was also another strong resistance zone. At point C, I have drawn this once and also here you can see very nice how the course reacts. At the time, that was proof to me that these supply and demand zones are influencing a future course. Let's take a look at how we can actually use these zones to our advantage.



We remain in the EURUSD Daily Chart from August 2017 to December 2018, and on October 16, 2018, a supply market will emerge that will drop 320 pip within 13 days. Then a demand market begins. Let's take a closer look.



You see at point A the beginning of the supply market, which runs to point B. Then there is a demand market and we are now between point B and C. The price will now go to point C and we go in with a sell limit order. However, at the present time we do not know yet how far the price will go up. For this reason, within the supply market (between points A and B) we now have to pick the strongest zone to determine point C. We mark the yellow bordered zone and look at this zone in H1.



Within this supply market, there are now three strong and sustainable supply zones. Zone A has a magnitude of 3.4, Zone B has a magnitude of 4.8, and Zone C has a magnitude of 2.2. We now mark the strongest zone with two yellow dashed lines. In the overview we can realize that exactly within this zone the course was rejected again. However, 110 pip are a very large range that we need to downsize in order to be profitable.

We now have several options to reduce this 110 pip. Let's stay in H1 first and draw a line based on the past zones. We pay attention to the resistances to the right and left of our strong zone. Of course we do not know at this time whether this line is correct. Since the zone B is the strongest zone, we mark the zone and change first to the overview M5.



We are now in zone B of the H1 in the M5. At point A, we see that the strong supply zone, which runs from top to bottom stops exactly in our marked zone. After that, an equilibrium is created. Point B creates a demand market. Point C is the strongest zone in this supply market. You realize that the course from point A to point D is in a large equilibrium (blue frame). Only from the point D, the price goes down sharply, just out of our zone. Unfortunately we can not use the M1 because it only goes back a month. So we have to change the settings of the indicator.



We are still in Zone B from the H1 Chart (Picture # 6). With the setting 7/5/3, there are now three new zones. Let's take a closer look at the strongest zone Z.



On the left side we manage to limit our entry line to 10 pip with the help of Zone Z at a setting of 7/5/3. On the right side we have reduced the setting to 3/2/1. This succeeds in reducing the entry level to 3 Pip. Decisive here is the strong candle (in the yellow arrow) breaks through our zone. With this approach, we would have caught the supply market down correctly. Achieving a profit of 280 pip with a 3-10 pip risk is a highly interesting thing, even if the procedure is a bit of a hassle. However, whether you win 280 Pip depends on how long you are willing to stay in the market and take the risk of being stopped by a strong breakout.



Of course, everything does not always go so smoothly, it is important to pay attention to how the market moves. But there are relatively simple tools. In the following overview you can see a very strong supply market at point A with a strength of 57.4. I have drawn this zone once in green and you can see very well that the course has never managed to overcome this zone upwards.

At point B, the price is 71.7 down. Also, I have marked this zone and so far, the course has not yet managed to overcome this zone up. Crucial now is that the course comes in such a strong demand zone that he can overcome the A and B zone.

This is a good deal of work and I admit that it is certainly easier to trade with a moving average. However, the question is whether this is so profitable.
Try it yourself, you starts best with past courses, because there you have a result immediately. It will take a while to get this done, but I'm convinced it's worth it. If you want to be profitable, you have to be ready to do something for it. The best thing about this approach is that you can actually choose the best trades that promise an interesting risk-reward ratio.

You need a bit of practice, but that's just like driving a car the more often you do it, the better you can do it.

I wish you a successful trading day and a nice evening

best regards

Hello dear trader, hello dear subscriber,

With Christmas, the year is slowly coming to an end and for many people is now time for a review of the past 12 months. Health, a happy partnership, family, financial independence, enjoying life, having good friends and having a job that is fun and safe are among the most important wishes in people's lives.
Unfortunately, life does not always go according to plan and every now and then there are a few shards. But the most important thing in life is hope: every day we have the chance to start over.

I wish you a wonderful Christmas with your family, health, a lot of joy and a happy new year 2019 with the prospect that all your wishes come true.

Merry Christmas 2018

Determine specific trend reversals


Hello dear subscribers,

Over the last few days, I have analyzed zones based on the supply and demand indicator and have been able to determine some specific trend reversals and their lengths. However, I need to more concrete statements and further attempts to derive a legality from it. Let's take a closer look at the supply and demand zones.



Here is a comparison between a H4 candle chart and the Bionic supply and demand market indicator within two years. Individual candles, no matter in what time unit, are in principle only a small snapshot within the entire price history. The Bionic supply and demand market indicator translates these individual price developments into supply and demand zones. These zones are different in width and high. You can clearly see that the supply and demand market indicator gives clearer signals and information than the pure candle chart. If you know how to interpret these signals correctly, you can use them to derive future supply or demand zones.



Let's take another look at different trends. The wider a zone, the more sustainable but weaker the trend. The higher the zone, the stronger the trend, but less sustainable.

Strength

The strength of a trend is determined by how high a trend is within a short time. Strong and short-term trends often indicate a pullback. These strong trends are often required to break strong resistance zones.

Sustainability

The sustainability of a trend is determined by the extent to which a trend runs over a longer period of time. If a trend goes down over a longer period of time, it means buyers have not objected within that time. And it also means that there were no major resistance zones, otherwise the course could not give way over that long period of time. This sustainability is a very decisive factor for me

Conclusion: The narrower a zone is, the more likely it is to be considered a pullback, and the wider a zone, the more likely it is to attribute to a trend. Alone from this information, one can derive many future movements. In principle, this is just a translation of the current price in supply and demand.



Let's take a look at the price trend in the daily chart from 2012 to 2018. At point A, we see a strong and sustainable trend. Shortly before point B, a strong bullish pullback ensues, followed by a strong supply zone. This is a typical future resistance that I once dyed blue. After that, the course went to the lower blue resistance zone. Point C created a strong demand market. At that moment, one could assume that the price would not go down too much. With point D, once again a stronger supply market was introduced, which brought the price a little deeper into the blue zone. Point E was finally the clear confirmation of a strong upward trend. The uptrend from point G was strong and sustained, but failed at point B's strong blue zone. With a smaller shot you can clearly see that from point H the downtrend was obvious. After that, the course went to resistance zone F, where it was twice rejected. Zone K is now a good sign of a possible further uptrend.



Here we see the same price development in a smaller setting. This makes the information even more accurate and concrete.



We now switch once to the smallest setting 3/2/1. We will now take a closer look at the course of the price within the yellow box. After a strong supply market, a strong demand market was created, which eventually brought the price up to 1.255.



At points A and B, we are already seeing the first signs of a future demand market. Nevertheless, the course went a bit down. From point C, the breadth of the demand zones was clearly in the advantage and the price moved upwards. On the way up you can watch how the supply zones are getting wider and wider. That's an indication that things are going downhill soon. With point D, another supply market was launched, but it was caught by the strong demand market. After the strong demand market at point C, they see the price being pushed down in the form of strong pullbacks (blue arrows). After the demand market from point E, the pullbacks are then not quite as strong. Point G and H are then a clear confirmation of another strong upward trend.



In December 2018, we are in a similar situation, facing a big turnaround. Now let's take a look at the course within the yellow box.



Already at the beginning of June 2018, there were the first signs of a possible upward trend at points A and B. After the price had gone down again, point C produced another strong demand market. The strong supply market at point D finally pushed the price even further into the blue zone. The crucial clue was the demand zone at point E. This zone has not been broken yet. We recognize again very strong bearish pullbacks. This could, as in the previous example, be a good sign that we are already back in the upward trend.



Every turnaround has a zone that is responsible, that's the so-called reference price for me. So, if there's an uptrend, I'll find the strongest zones in the downtrend that occurred before, identifying possible reversals. In addition I have brought in the previous contributions some examples. Of course, this is a major effort, but you can also catch exactly the reversal points with this strategy. By zooming down into smaller time units, the stop can be reduced to 3 pip, significantly increasing the risk-reward ratio.

In my previous attempts, I was surprised how exactly I could determine these zones. It was even more interesting, however, to recognize the next turnaround. With this one could directly determine the risk profit ratio. On the 24th of December there was very little volatility in the market, yet I was able to reach over 66 pip profit in just under 5 hours with 2 trades with a total risk of 7 pip. The only risk was the long time, but I was lucky. How I proceeded exactly and the zones have been determined, I will post in the next few days.

I wish you a Merry Christmas.

best regards

Happy Holidays to all here.....

Identify trend reversals


Hello dear subscriber,

As already announced, I would like to explain my Christmas trades and how I determined the required zones in advance. Actually, I intended to enter 3 trades, but my 2nd trade ended at 4:00 pm CET on Christmas and we wanted to celebrate.



On December 21, 2018, we recognize in Point A that the price has gone down sharply in a supply market. Already at point B you can see that the bulls are slowly getting ready to bring the course back up. With point C, the course was finally pressed down further. On December 24th, point D created a sustainable demand market. This led to the conclusion that the price will move slowly upwards. Specifically, at points E and F, we see that the price has moved to a slightly stronger resistance zone and has been pushed down again. At 9:00 CET, there was a strong demand market and you can see that the price had broken the strong resistance zone of E and F points. That was the moment for me to prepare three interesting trades. First, the course at resistance zone R2 had to be turned down. In order to find a suitable entry point down here, you had to get more involved with Zone C. Within zone G there was a strong resistance zone to push the course up again. To know how far the price would then go upwards, I had to look for a resistance zone within offer zone A. The goal was to trade from resistance zone R2 to resistance zone R1. Additionally, I wanted to trade up from resistance zone R1 to resistance zone R3. A possible trade 3 should then go down from the resistance zone R3. I could not calculate the zones yet because the demand market had not yet been created for it.



To properly prepare these trades, the three zones A, B and C were crucial to me. First, I chose the strongest price in these three zones and plotted that zone. In addition, I marked the three crucial zones as I wanted to reduce the attitude of the Bionic supply and demand indicator.



Now the setting in M5 has been reduced to 3/2/1. At point C there was no change, in the next zone at point B there were two decisive zones that were strong, but I was able to take zone D out already, as the course had already gone down and was already rejected. That made me realize that only Zone B can still be decisive. In zone A, I have already drawn the strongest zone, here, first of all, nothing had to be changed. Then I switched to the M1 and have looked at the individual zones there.



We start first with zone A. Within the strong demand market we see a very strong candle. Within this candle, the future price is turned up again. To reduce the risk, I had to reduce this zone. At point 2 you can see very nicely how the course is turned down. At point 3 there are two strong candles, one candle up and then a candle one down. These candles break through a strong invisible resistance zone, so the crucial zone actually had to be inside those two candles. This would have allowed me to move the lower resistance zone up a bit, reducing the risk to 1 pip. The risk was a bit too big for me and I wanted to give the course a little more leeway. Later I realized that this idea worked exactly. 3 pip risk was definitely not too much.



Zone B was all about finding an optimal entry point down. The blue border marks my found zone 8/4/2 in the M5. Within this zone there were two strong zones with points 1 and 3. However, Zone 1 was no longer fresh for me as it has already been active with demand zone 2 before. This left me only the zone 3 left. The deciding factor was the small bullish candle (yellow arrow) just before the price went down. If I had set my two resistance lines exactly on this small candle I would have been picked up exactly. But here, too, I wanted to give the course some scope and with 3 pip risk, I was also in my frame.



Now I wanted to know how far the course would go upwards before being turned down again. It is very nice to see that within offer zone 1 the strongest candle was at point 2. Points 3 and 4 were crucial for me to reduce the resistance zone. Starting at point 4, the price has gone down. With point 5, the price has not managed to get into this resistance zone, so there was no reason to change the lower resistance. 4 pip risk was again in the frame. With that I had planned two possible trades already 1 hour before the course came to my first zone.



At 11:19 CET, my sell limit was triggered, but it only took 14 minutes for the price to go down. In total, it took 107 minutes to close the trade with 21 pip. At the same time, a buy limit order was opened and the price moved up relatively quickly. After 160 minutes the trade ended with 45 pip. I was wondering if I should place a sell limit order again, but I refrained from doing so as it was already very late. Had I placed this limit order I would have been stopped off as you can see nicely because I had not calculated the zone correctly. So I was lucky again. With a risk of a total of 7 pip including spread to earn a profit of 66 pip was made by a good Christmas gift. After that, the price went down by just 35 pip within 50 minutes. I would not have expected so fast at Christmas time. Volatility was very low at that time, so I was willing to stay in the market for more than 4.5 hours and make the two trades.



There were three trades in the room, trades A and B I have received, at C I would probably have been stopped because I had calculated the line incorrectly. Although I achieved a risk-profit ratio of 1: 6 with Trade A and a risk-profit ratio of 1:13 with Trade B, I was far too long on the market. You know the longer you are in the market, the higher the chance to be stopped by a break out, or to give back a large part of its profits.

Trade C would have been the optimal trade in our case, 35 pip in 50 minutes. That's equivalent to 0.7 pip per minute. Therefore, it is crucial to choose the trades from the outset, have a high risk-profit ratio and achieve their goal within a very short time. Unfortunately, only limited market volatility can be predicted.

So I can say that I took a very high risk. But I did not expect high volatility, I'm glad that I was fortunately not stopped. I think you realize that it is relatively easy to determine the crucial zones, but I still believe that much is due to chance or luck. However, I will continue to work on it and see how the prediction of the Bionic supply and demand indicator develops. So far, it looks very promising in any case.

Try it yourself, I look forward to your feedback.

I wish you a successful trading day and I look forward to a successful new year with you.

best regards

EURUSD past = future?


Hello dear subscriber,


The year 2018 is over and with a close of 1.14403 the EURUSD says goodbye to the old year. At the end of the year 2018, I would like to take stock of the situation and see if it will make a possible forwardlooking for the coming year. Last year, I assumed that the price would pick up faster, but I did not have the interesting overview of the Bionic supply and demand indicator and the Bionic chart at this point. Although you can not predict the future with these tools, there are many starting points that make trading easier.

Exactly 48 years ago, the first price calculation in EURUSD was made on 04.01.1971. These are 576 monthly candles, 2,448 weekly candles, 12,607 day candles and 38,564 different H4 candles. There is no currency pair that has more information and that's why I like to work with the EURUSD.
The course of a price is basically random, you can only work with probabilities to derive possibly a profitable trade. Why today can weather forecasts be predicted more accurately than a few hundred years ago? This is due to the huge amounts of data available today and from which one can draw certain conclusions. Of course, weather forecasts are not always accurate, but the more data records are available, the more accurate hit rates are possible.
We want to check whether it is possible to calculate or predict a future price from past data.



Although I used annual candles during the course of the stock market from 1971 to today (Figure A), Figure B gives me much more information through the Bionic supply and demand indicator. We will talk about this in detail next year. On the right-hand side, we see the two developed auxiliary indicators (bionic supply and demand indicator and bionic chart) in operation for the year 2018. Here we see how the demand market has increased in relation to the supply market in the last 2 months. From that we could assume for 2019 another demand market.



I once created an interesting calculation. This is about the annual range (high-low) of EURUSD. In the last 48 years 25 times the bulls and 23 times the bears have the nose ahead. On average, a demand market managed 1717 Pip, while a supply market averaged 1914 Pip. The graph shows how the demand and supply markets have changed. You can clearly see that in the last five years four times the supply market had the nose ahead. In 2018, the supply market, at 1341 Pip, was 30% below the average. From this one could assume a possible demand market for the year 2019.



Let's leave the annual range of high and low and deal specifically with supply and demand in the form of uptrends or downtrends. From 1971-2018 I once drew the main trends with the respective strength in Pip. Here it is noticeable that the average demand market was at 3600 pip while the average supply market reached 3100 pip. Interestingly, the smallest trend had reached at least 1300 pip. If you look at the entire course as a whole, it is noticeable that all previous supply markets can be regarded as pullback in principle, since the price has basically moved upwards since 1971. Of course, there were up and down trends within the price history. It's interesting to point out that trends between 1300 pip and 3000 pip pullbacks represent, movements above 3000 pip a true trend. If we followed this principle, we would still be in a downward trend.



Now let's take a closer look at these trends. There is no temporal division, as a trend is not oriented to months or years. The supply and demand markets have been evenly distributed over the past 48 years. While the demand markets reached 47,100 pip, the supply markets added up to 40,800 pip. Figure A compared the strength of the two markets. Figure B shows the respective difference from the demand market to the supply market graphically. Here you immediately notice a repetition of the lines. Based on this presentation one could have the assumption that the year 2019 brings a further upward trend.



The basic past trend of the past 48 years is bullish and has moved in a range of 10,700 pip. From the first price record in 1971 until the end of 2018, the price has increased by 6,300 Pip. This means that in 2018 he achieved about 60% of the overall rank. On average, the price has risen by 1,002 pip per year and dropped by 868 pip at the same time. Based on this consideration, one could expect a further increase.

We once calculated that the volatility of the price reached on average per minute between 3,000 and 5,000 pip per day. Now assuming 250 trading days per year and assuming 4,000 pip per day, that would be a cumulative volatility of 1,000,000 pip per year. However, since the price has risen on average by only 134 pip during this time, one could conclude that the price is mostly in a sideways range in most of the time. This increases the likelihood that it could continue in the future. Incidentally, that's one of the reasons why I became a Scalper. In a market that consists almost entirely of sideways movement, long-term trend trading is too risky and unprofitable for me.



Normally, the movements build on each other and give the typical graph that we know from the month chart from 1971 to today. I have not cumulated the flow of trends so they are running around a zero point. From this graph, one could also assume that the next trend could be an uptrend. However, we do not know at the moment if the last downtrend is actually over.



I have shown these trends once with bars. If the last downtrend is completed, a higher uptrend would be expected. But even this assumption is purely speculative, since the last red bar could also extend.



Point A and B was the beginning of a strong demand market. Whether point C can become a stronger demand market again is open. If we look at this trend C in our well-known overview, it looks at first glance very logical. The only problem is that at the moment we can not say if the last downtrend is actually over. The fact is that we can expect an upward trend again after the end of a downtrend. Unfortunately, we never know if the current trend is actually a trend or a pullback.



It is therefore very difficult to determine what will happen in the future. What we know with great certainty is that the market is always on the move and that a price basically moves up and down in undulations. In addition, we also know that a trend (with our attitude) has moved up or down by at least 1300 pip. However, this is also due to the attitude of our indicator. But that is no guarantee for the future. A trader needs movement to derive a trade and this movement is definitely there.



We realize that you can not make a binding statement about a future price development. One can indeed make a statement, if this statement occurs, however, is pure coincidence. Regardless of whether one balances individual currency strengths in the market, observes news, applies technical analysis, is influenced by analysts or acts purely on indicators, the result remains a coincidence. Thus, all statements made to the trade are, no matter whether they sound logical or not a mere random product. Neither science nor logic is able to create order in a random market. Therefore, I believe that such a random market can only be countered with its own chaotic strategy. Computer technology and algorithms are successful when the necessary capital is available to strongly influence markets. It is clear that discussing about a random market would not help, so every trader must seek his optimal path.

In fact, it does not matter if we have a supply or demand market, because within these different markets, there are up and down trends again, always moving up or down in undulations. Even if we knew that at the end of the year the price would be 1.35, we would not benefit from it. The background is, we do not know how far the price is going down. So if we were to trade in January at 1.145, it could happen that the price goes down to 1.122 before moving back into an uptrend. Crucial is exactly what happens at this moment. That's exactly what the Bionic Supply and Demand Indicator was developed for. The graphic presentation gives us important information about how strong a supply market or demand market has been in the past. From this we can roughly deduce what could happen next. Of course, this is not a guarantee, but the hit rate is over 50% and that is a crucial factor for long-term profitability. In 2019, we will deal with this topic in concrete terms and get to know many different examples. At first glance this looks very complicated, but the more often you deal with it the easier it gets. The goal of every trader is profitable trading, I am convinced that our way of dealing with supply and demand can make a big contribution.

I sincerely wish you to find a possible way to make it even more successful next year.

best regards

Once again (previous post on this blocked by the FF moderators). Can someone stop this nonsensical euro review dating back from 1971
while the Euro only exists for 20 years).

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2..._medium=social

The benefit of wisdom is that someone can pretend he's stupid.
The opposite is more difficult.

Kurt Tucholsky

I wish you all a happy new year 2019

Thanks,
Happy new year to you !!!
All the best

Only a miracle ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Tess a magical eight-year-old, went into her room and pulled a glass jam jar from the hiding place in the closet. She poured all the money on the floor and counted it carefully - three times. The entire sum had to be exactly the right one. Carefully she put the coins back in the glass, close the lid on and slipped out of the back door. She walked six blocks down to the Drug Store with the big red Indian chief on the sign above the door.

Patiently she waited until it was her turn. "Well, little lady, how can I help you?" Asked the pharmacist. I want to buy a miracle, Tess replied. A miracle, asked the pharmacist? My little brother Andrew is very ill, something bad is growing in his head, and my dad says that only a miracle can save him. What does such a miracle cost? "We do not sell miracles here, little girl. I'm sorry, but I can not help you, 'said the pharmacist.' Listen, I have money to pay for it. And if it's not enough, I'll get the rest. Just tell me how much it costs.'

Behind her stood a well-dressed man. He leaned down and asked the little girl, 'What miracle does your brother need?' 'I do not know,' Tess answered, her eyes filling with tears. 'All I know is that he is really sick and Mommy says he needs surgery. But my daddy can not pay her, so I want to take my money. 'How much do you have?' asked the man. 'One doller and eleven cents,' Tess answered barely audibly. 'And that's all the money I have, but I can get more if I have to.'

Well, what a coincidence, 'smiled the man. 'One dollar and eleven cents - exactly the price for a miracle for little brothers.' He took her money in one hand and with the other hand he grabbed hers and said, 'Show me where you live. I want to see your brother and meet your parents. Let's see if I have the miracle you need.'

This well-dressed man was a surgeon specializing in neuro-surgery. The surgery was done for free, and it was not long before Andrew was back home and fine. Mom and Dad happily related the events that had happened so well. 'This operation,' whispered her mom, she was a real miracle. I would like to know what it costs. '

Tess smiled. She knew exactly how much a miracle costs ... a dollar and eleven cents ...

I wish you a happy new year 2019 and keep my fingers crossed that in this year all your wishes come true.

Lovely wishes

Hi All,
Happy new year 2019 !!! May we all get green pips in this coming year ....
Any body know what happened today (some hours ago) ?? some of the major currency going weak so crazy (esp. AUD) against USD, do not see any news or logically Reason about what happened today, and some of big banks are closed ...
How to Solve the characteristic like this ? i don't think that we can Predict this before ... it is im\possible isn't it ??
hmm ... may be must be back home soon, to finish my old homework that not really done right yet

JUST READ YOUR ARTICLE SIR VERY WELL EXPLAINED REALLY HAPPY AND LUCKY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SMART , INTELLIGENT AT THE SAME TIME KIND AND SHARING PERSON LIKE YOU ..THANK YOU FOR EVERYTHING

Hello HumbleLearne,

Thank you for the flowers and your kind words. With all my heart I wish you all the best this year and that all your heart's desires come true. I am pleased that you are there and believe that this year we will again learn many new things that will bring us forward significantly.

best regards