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Having a rough time with trades.

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 10, 2006 5:22pm Oct 10, 2006 5:22pm
Hi guys, I have been having quite a rough time with forex. I am having a bunch of fun mind you, but I am getting beat up. I am glad for this community as it provides me with inspiration how people fall and get back up. I know I will get there but I just need some help. It turns out I have a knack for picking the opposite direction of the market. 80% if what I place, hits the stop loss. Granted, that I am only trading a demo until I get good, but I still cannot seem to understand a few things.

1. I took a forex course and understand that the market waves etc. However, How can I tell from the daily/4hr chart if the market is going up or down? For example, when the market retraces, sometimes it completes a full fibonacci wave. In that wave sometimes I think that it is a reversal, A lower hi or a lower low or vice versa. This confuses me as I do not know if the market is still going up or down and therefore, which way to buy.

2. How do you enter the market after a indicator has been shown to you. For example, I have been trying out bagovino's method and sometimes i get stopped out after the initial cross. When is it safe to get back in? When I view the charts sometimes after I get stopped out, I watch the market and it carries through to a huge trend.

3. Suppose I do get in at the right time, how do I know when to place more lots on a trend?

4. Money management - When I am not able to watch the market, sometimes I make a profit but by the time I look at the market again, I have suffered a loss. How can I get out of the market before I lose money without watching it. Do I need some form of EA for MetaTrader?

thanks guys.
  • #2
  • Oct 12, 2006 1:16am Oct 12, 2006 1:16am
I can't offer help on all of your questions, but #4 is easy. Use limits to exit your profitable positions and try stops to prevent significant losses; but be careful not to place the stops too close or they will be triggered by daily fluctuations - good luck
  • #3
  • Oct 12, 2006 1:23am Oct 12, 2006 1:23am
Quoting vder
I am having a bunch of fun mind you...
Well that's your first problem. Forex is not supposed to be fun. You should be bored out of your skull. Fun is for casinos where the drinks flow like honey and the women are skanky.

Quoting vder
How can I tell from the daily/4hr chart if the market is going up or down?
If you are having problems with waves, how about plotting a daily or weekly graph of your favorite pair and plotting a trendline. If it's ascending, you're in a bull market. If it's descending, you're in a bear market. Quit worrying about waves. Keep it simple. Course instructors should be shot for teaching newbies advanced wave theory or even Elliot wave.

Quoting vder
How do you enter the market after a indicator has been shown to you. For example, I have been trying out bagovino's method and sometimes i get stopped out after the initial cross. When is it safe to get back in? When I view the charts sometimes after I get stopped out, I watch the market and it carries through to a huge trend.
I'm not familiar with that method, but it sounds like your stops are too close. Did you take his method and backtest it? Did you backtest it with different stop loss and profit target scenarios? If not, then how do you know what works?

Quoting vder
Suppose I do get in at the right time, how do I know when to place more lots on a trend?
What do you mean? If you mean adding to a position as it improves, save that for when you are starting to become consistent. If you start doing that right off the bat, you'll set a new record for the quickest guy who ever blew up his capital.

Quoting vder
Money management - When I am not able to watch the market, sometimes I make a profit but by the time I look at the market again, I have suffered a loss. How can I get out of the market before I lose money without watching it.
Why don't you set a rule that says that when you make half of your profit target, you move your stop to breakeven?
Mr. Trend
  • #4
  • Oct 12, 2006 1:43am Oct 12, 2006 1:43am
All beginners will go through the same rough patch as you are right now. Some would quit without knowing that thier success is just round the corner.
Do not trade according to sentiment or emotion.. apply a plan or system. As you mentioned that your track record is 80% losses and 20% wins. Then keep on trying until you are winning.
Having the feeling that you tend to loose when you are at the computer is one sign that you are trading with personally. You must become a machine where you execute according to your rules and your plan. If it didnt work out - what the heck.. its not your fault.
Try to trade with real money no matter how small. I even traded where 1 pip = $0.10 at one time or during losing streak. Important thing is your mental attitude will be much different when compared if you were trading with a demo account where 1 pip = $100 or even $1,000.

Vder - You never walk alone.. welcome to the money dome
When the wave comes - jump !!
  • #5
  • Oct 12, 2006 2:16am Oct 12, 2006 2:16am
What currencies are you trading? It is good to focus on one and then expand. Do you watch for the news events. That can cause a spike up or down and then knock you out.
  • #6
  • Oct 12, 2006 2:28am Oct 12, 2006 2:28am
Another suggestion is to read the Forum here at FF factory they do offer technical analysis on the gbp uro and others. This may be helpful to you in making a trade.
  • #7
  • Oct 12, 2006 10:17am Oct 12, 2006 10:17am
You could always give me your money and I'll trade it for you -- less a 20% performance / 2% maintenance fee, of course...
Mr. Trend
  • #8
  • Oct 12, 2006 10:31am Oct 12, 2006 10:31am
Wow! truly appreciate the feedback guys. Lets see, right now I am trading the major pairs. Just trying to get a feel of the forex and how it moves etc. I don't trade news as that is very risky for me at this point and I do not know any techniques (except for straddling which I don't really want to think about because reading from ppl on this forum, slippage tends to be a major issue with brokers).

One of the major problems I think I have right now is trying to tell which direction the market is going. I have attached a picture of what I am speaking about.

What do you guys do to determine market direction? Any use of indicators?

thanks
Attached Image
  • #9
  • Oct 12, 2006 10:32am Oct 12, 2006 10:32am
man i quit for 3 weeks when i first started, cuase ever time i place a trade forex turns the other way, its annoying. then i came back again with $200 left over in the account, doing alot of studing and methods, and gain $400 in less then 8 trading days. its not much but its makes me feel good that im not just LOSSING, im acutally LOSSING and WINNING(more) lol.
  • #10
  • Oct 12, 2006 10:43am Oct 12, 2006 10:43am
Quoting vder

One of the major problems I think I have right now is trying to tell which direction the market is going. I have attached a picture of what I am speaking about.

What do you guys do to determine market direction? Any use of indicators?

thanks
Hi Vder If you notice that there is an uptrend like the USD/JPY then try and BUY on the down trend. Watch 4H charts and when you start to see at least 3 candles one after the other dipping down.. like in your chart.. then you will see it start to base out and reverse. As soon as you see 2 OR 3 4H charts heading for a rise.. then you enter. I normally use MOUTEKI'S trade to determine when to enter and see if it breaks the resistance line see the mouteki thread
_______________ Say Good-bye to Buy-and-Hold
  • #11
  • Oct 12, 2006 10:52am Oct 12, 2006 10:52am
Hi, I see you are using TDTLs. One thing you might do to stop trading against the trend is to make your trend like you have on the 4 hour chart. Then switch that chart to the daily and make the trend lines there as well.
Then switch back to the 4 hour and only take a trade when the 4 hour TDTL is broken, in the same direction as the Daily Trend line. This way you will be by definition buy the dips is a rally and selling the peaks in a decline of the daily trend.


Quoting vder
Wow! truly appreciate the feedback guys. Lets see, right now I am trading the major pairs. Just trying to get a feel of the forex and how it moves etc. I don't trade news as that is very risky for me at this point and I do not know any techniques (except for straddling which I don't really want to think about because reading from ppl on this forum, slippage tends to be a major issue with brokers).

One of the major problems I think I have right now is trying to tell which direction the market is going. I have attached a picture of what I am speaking about.

What do you guys do to determine market direction? Any use of indicators?

thanks
Attached Images
  • #12
  • Oct 12, 2006 11:05am Oct 12, 2006 11:05am
thanks for the reply smjones and the rest . I am a little confused. My problem is that sometimes I cannot determine the daily trend. In my examples, It looks like the daily trend is heading upwards, so I buy that. In effect, the market is just waving downwards and so I lose out. (By the way, I do not know if i am using TDTL's at the moment. This is how I was taught to draw trendlines. I have just found out about TD and have some reading to do on that ).

How do I use your system to determine the daily trend? Do I look at the candle? How do you determine the trend if the candle is not fully formed as yet as is the example in my previous post?

Also, if I were to use mouteki's system, would the trendlines be slightly different on the 4hr than on the daily?


thanks.
  • #13
  • Oct 12, 2006 11:27am Oct 12, 2006 11:27am
Quoting vder
thanks for the reply smjones and the rest . I am a little confused. My problem is that sometimes I cannot determine the daily trend.
.....
I have just found out about TD and have some reading to do on that ).
....
thanks.
Here are some examles of TD and TLs.
  • #14
  • Oct 12, 2006 11:47am Oct 12, 2006 11:47am
basically figure out what you did wrong, and try to modify ur strat to avoid the same mistakes, basically we all make bad trades and lose its part of the game... like on that Yen trade it was pretty high up near resistance.. possible 123 forming as well. you need to look at the market from 6 different angles before you put ur money on the line.. once the market takes ur money u cant get it back! be sure ur armed with a good trade that has a fighting chance. Also ur probably using tight stops... in forex using tight stops youll get blown away time and again.. not cause the broker are out to get u.. but because forex is so volitile the average daily range is like 200 pips... 20 to 30 pip stop is easy pickings... boom ur dead. U need to set ur stop at a strong support or resistance level where price if it went there would totally negate ur overall plan... just make sure ur trading with the trend... basically look at the higher time frames starting with monthly. weekly, daily, then drill down to lower and look for retracements for an opportunity to jump on, be careful at extreme market points of Support and resistance. Wait for pullbacks to TLs and take bounces off them and EMA's.

Keep studying and reading one course doesnt cut it this is a lifetime commitment...

GL
  • #15
  • Oct 12, 2006 11:58am Oct 12, 2006 11:58am
study the crap out of macd divergence and how to exploit it correctly... watch for faslse divergence and remember there is no holy grail no one tool works all the time.
  • #16
  • Oct 12, 2006 12:14pm Oct 12, 2006 12:14pm
thanks for all the help guys. I guess proper determination will also come with more experience. Just seems I have a knack for picking when the market reverses. Oh well.

My stops are kind of tight but I place them previous levels of support/resistance. Some of them get taken out quite quickly, but when I get it right....boy do the trades fly!

Just out of curiousity, when I look at the daily chart and a fairly full bodied candle is forming whether bullish or bearish, is this an indication of where the market is going for that day?

thanks.
  • #17
  • Oct 12, 2006 12:23pm Oct 12, 2006 12:23pm
NO like i said u need multiple confirmations dont chase price just cause u see a bullish candle sure way to blow ur account.
  • #18
  • Oct 12, 2006 2:43pm Oct 12, 2006 2:43pm
Quoting smjones
Hi, I see you are using TDTLs. One thing you might do to stop trading against the trend is to make your trend like you have on the 4 hour chart. Then switch that chart to the daily and make the trend lines there as well.
Then switch back to the 4 hour and only take a trade when the 4 hour TDTL is broken, in the same direction as the Daily Trend line. This way you will be by definition buy the dips is a rally and selling the peaks in a decline of the daily trend.
Hi smj,

At this point the left side of my brain has absolutely degenerated.. As we all know the left brain lobe deals with sperm count and the Mouteki trendlines. The first item is about average, but the comprehension of the TDTL's in various time frames is far from being clear to me. And that is of course an understatement.

I wonder if you can help me here. So we draw the TDTL's on 4 hours and then in the same TDTL's on the daily chart.
Let's take USDJPY as of 3:31 pm EST. On the 4 hour chart the current candle is just about touching the demand line and there is a potential to go short theoretically. The daily chart has broken through the supply line on 10-8 and is in uptrend even though the last candle after the doji is red and will probably go south. Now how do I put this two chart together and come to a sensible decision. Should we be inclined to short if the 4 hour candle breaks through the demand (support)line? What is the daily chart telling me here?

Thank you.
  • #19
  • Oct 12, 2006 2:48pm Oct 12, 2006 2:48pm
Quoting enoc2g
basically figure out what you did wrong, and try to modify ur strat to avoid the same mistakes, basically we all make bad trades and lose its part of the game... like on that Yen trade it was pretty high up near resistance.. possible 123 forming as well. you need to look at the market from 6 different angles before you put ur money on the line.. once the market takes ur money u cant get it back! be sure ur armed with a good trade that has a fighting chance. Also ur probably using tight stops... in forex using tight stops youll get blown away time and again.. not cause the broker are out to get u.. but because forex is so volitile the average daily range is like 200 pips... 20 to 30 pip stop is easy pickings... boom ur dead. U need to set ur stop at a strong support or resistance level where price if it went there would totally negate ur overall plan... just make sure ur trading with the trend... basically look at the higher time frames starting with monthly. weekly, daily, then drill down to lower and look for retracements for an opportunity to jump on, be careful at extreme market points of Support and resistance. Wait for pullbacks to TLs and take bounces off them and EMA's.

Keep studying and reading one course doesnt cut it this is a lifetime commitment...

GL
Thanks for the advice above and to not follow the candle. I don't understand when you say:

Wait for pullbacks to TLs and take bounces off them and EMA's.

Also, What are the various other angles/checks that I can implement to get a higher probability winning trade?

thanks!
  • #20
  • Oct 12, 2006 3:09pm Oct 12, 2006 3:09pm
Ok, I thought I would post a picture or 2 to get some better feedback from you guys. Here is a daily chart of the EUR/CHF. Which was is it headed? It looks like an uptrend to me....but I have not been making the right decisions.

thanks.
Attached Image
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