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The Swamp

  • #27,661
  • Dec 19, 2018 9:32am Dec 19, 2018 9:32am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} its near year end. it can still make 1.2 with fed no raise help. DO NOT OVER-LEVERAGE.
no raise wouldn't help i think
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,662
  • Dec 19, 2018 9:34am Dec 19, 2018 9:34am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} its near year end. it can still make 1.2 with fed no raise help. DO NOT OVER-LEVERAGE.
no.. I am not going to... I will be stop out around 1460s...I will try to close all before fomc...
  • #27,663
  • Dec 19, 2018 9:49am Dec 19, 2018 9:49am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} no raise wouldn't help i think
Don't know.. eu has the path formation already built. usd about the same. if so 1884, has its attraction. year wise, 2017 closed bullish. If it runs, it may be best to hop on to catch the year end. Eu bulls have a foundation. Reality wise, it would take some doing. The trend most of 2018 is lower. more evidence needed..A no-cut or a signal of 2019 no-raise could/should move this..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #27,664
  • Dec 19, 2018 9:59am Dec 19, 2018 9:59am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Don't know.. eu has the path formation already built. usd about the same. if so 1884, has its attraction. year wise, 2017 closed bullish. If it runs, it may be best to hop on to catch the year end. Eu bulls have a foundation. Reality wise, it would take some doing. The trend most of 2018 is lower. more evidence needed..A no-cut or a signal of 2019 no-raise could/should move this.. {image}
keep it simple, higher rates is normally positive for a currency, see your point but macro data US a lot better then in Europe only Trump making a mess of everything could help Euro, a no rate rise would mean totally loss of CB's credibility
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,665
  • Dec 19, 2018 10:00am Dec 19, 2018 10:00am
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #27,666
  • Dec 19, 2018 10:11am Dec 19, 2018 10:11am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} keep it simple, higher rates is normally positive for a currency, see your point but macro data US a lot better then in Europe only Trump making a mess of everything could help Euro, a no rate rise would mean totally loss of CB's credibility
Hi bear. Very long time ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #27,667
  • Dec 19, 2018 10:16am Dec 19, 2018 10:16am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} keep it simple, higher rates is normally positive for a currency, see your point but macro data US a lot better then in Europe only Trump making a mess of everything could help Euro, a no rate rise would mean totally loss of CB's credibility
simple is the raises are/were already priced in. The raises are no secret in the way the market believes, the Fed will raise. . A raise is mostly priced in. The Fed doing/indicating the opposite will have the opposite reaction. Most think the Fed will raise today and have for months. So a raise today is most likely. Beyond today the Fed will release a forecast for 2019 and longer. That forecast may change from the last FOMC. Oil has dropped. So inflation may drop some in the Fed forecast.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #27,668
  • Dec 19, 2018 10:19am Dec 19, 2018 10:19am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} simple is the raises are/were already priced in. The raises are no secret in the way the market believes, the Fed will raise. . A raise is mostly priced in. The Fed doing/indicating the opposite will have the opposite reaction.
news by FX flow:


Fed hike odds are starting to creep up: Last orders at the bar!This morning, Fed hike odds were 69.3% and now they're up to 74.5% on Reuters metrics.BBG finished yesterday at 68.3% and stand at 70.6% now.There is still very little pricing for 3 more hikes.
  • #27,669
  • Dec 19, 2018 10:22am Dec 19, 2018 10:22am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Hi bear. Very long time ...
Hi Hickson, yes not active here, just lurking from you marvelous guys :-)
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,670
  • Dec 19, 2018 10:25am Dec 19, 2018 10:25am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} Hi Hickson, yes not active here, just lurking from you marvelous guys :-)
lol ... hope you are good, happy holidays ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #27,671
  • Dec 19, 2018 10:28am Dec 19, 2018 10:28am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} news by FX flow: Fed hike odds are starting to creep up: Last orders at the bar!This morning, Fed hike odds were 69.3% and now they're up to 74.5% on Reuters metrics.BBG finished yesterday at 68.3% and stand at 70.6% now.There is still very little pricing for 3 more hikes.
Who calculates the probability for hiking throughout the day? If so, and the information is available, why is Eurusd going up? Maybe it will reverse? Maybe the market just does not care? Too many paradoxons, I will just enjoy the fire works and hopefully some tradable fresh new levels will emerge from the dust ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #27,672
  • Dec 19, 2018 10:31am Dec 19, 2018 10:31am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} simple is the raises are/were already priced in. The raises are no secret in the way the market believes, the Fed will raise. . A raise is mostly priced in. The Fed doing/indicating the opposite will have the opposite reaction. Most think the Fed will raise today and have for months. So a raise today is most likely. Beyond today the Fed will release a forecast for 2019 and longer. That forecast may change from the last FOMC. Oil has dropped. So inflation may drop some in the Fed forecast.
yes correct my mistake, thought I saw 1.12 but it was 1.20 in your message sorry, agree just think with the Euro weak macro data, UK troubles, Italy and France its a bit hard to achieve, USD as well as EUR are fundamentally weak imo for different reasons....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #27,673
  • Dec 19, 2018 10:45am Dec 19, 2018 10:45am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Who calculates the probability for hiking throughout the day? If so, and the information is available, why is Eurusd going up? Maybe it will reverse? Maybe the market just does not care? Too many paradoxons, I will just enjoy the fire works and hopefully some tradable fresh new levels will emerge from the dust ...
market priced in or not priced in rate hikes.. at the end.. we know the correct way to trade...( I borrow this picture from Marc Chandler twitter)
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  • #27,674
  • Dec 19, 2018 10:46am Dec 19, 2018 10:46am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} yes correct my mistake, thought I saw 1.12 but it was 1.20 in your message sorry, agree just think with the Euro weak macro data, UK troubles, Italy and France its a bit hard to achieve, USD as well as EUR are fundamentally weak imo for different reasons....
eu can have a manic depressive, teenager, high on heroin, coming off a crack high, with daddy issues, having a monthly cycle, when the car wont start, on a bad hair day, breaking a nail, while beating her X boyfriend's new girlfriend, with her broken cell phone. . Kinda attitude at times.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #27,675
  • Dec 19, 2018 11:33am Dec 19, 2018 11:33am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} a good trade Andy...you are one of those like Gators..
Not even close...I think of myself like a small Chihuahua chasing a firetruck trying to make a buck here and there...
Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
  • #27,676
  • Dec 19, 2018 11:41am Dec 19, 2018 11:41am
Quoting JustAndy
{quote} Not even close...I think of myself like a small Chihuahua chasing a firetruck trying to make a buck here and there...
you are funny... thanks ...
  • #27,677
  • Dec 19, 2018 11:52am Dec 19, 2018 11:52am
Quoting JustAndy
{quote} Not even close...I think of myself like a small Chihuahua chasing a firetruck trying to make a buck here and there...



I know I know, have been extremely busy. Will make the time to get in touch with you over the weekend.

Brilliant thread work gents/ladies..!
  • #27,678
  • Dec 19, 2018 12:36pm Dec 19, 2018 12:36pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} you are funny... thanks ...
oh yeah. I'm like a chiwawa humping your leg sniffing butts and crapping on the rug. I piss on firetrucks tires and make love to spot.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #27,679
  • Dec 19, 2018 1:01pm Dec 19, 2018 1:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} oh yeah. I'm like a chiwawa humping your leg sniffing butts and crapping on the rug. I piss on firetrucks tires and make love to spot.
lol... out of all my shorts with profit.. sideline now...
  • #27,680
  • Dec 19, 2018 1:04pm Dec 19, 2018 1:04pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} lol... out of all my shorts with profit.. sideline now...
IN & OUT 27+
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