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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #361
  • Dec 6, 2018 8:16am Dec 6, 2018 8:16am
Quoting Riaanvw
Morning all, took a few longs this morning {image}
How come you took the trades so late instead of taking the div at the bottom?
  • #362
  • Dec 6, 2018 8:26am Dec 6, 2018 8:26am
I was busy with a customer at that time unfortunately
  • #363
  • Dec 6, 2018 8:29am Dec 6, 2018 8:29am
Quoting Jazz1964
if you like, we could do a TeamViewer session, then I can look into your computer and check your MT4. Just send me a pm if that's what you want.
Hi Jazz1964 , thank you for the offer; I guess the issue is due to different openiings of the market as I am using Oanda. Seems like some of the guys are also having this issue of a slight difference in their charts.
  • #364
  • Dec 6, 2018 8:33am Dec 6, 2018 8:33am
Quoting Riaanvw
I was busy with a customer at that time unfortunately
No worries then...

I just plotted the moves on the 15 min chart and they looked like this...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 48 KB


It took a long time today to reach the target
  • #365
  • Dec 6, 2018 9:01am Dec 6, 2018 9:01am
Divergence on both M30 and M15
  • #366
  • Dec 6, 2018 9:35am Dec 6, 2018 9:35am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} No worries then... I just plotted the moves on the 15 min chart and they looked like this... {image} It took a long time today to reach the target
Nice Alan, thanks for the chart
  • #367
  • Edited 9:51am Dec 6, 2018 9:39am | Edited 9:51am
Quoting mickmack5
{quote} Hi Jazz1964 , thank you for the offer; I guess the issue is due to different openiings of the market as I am using Oanda. Seems like some of the guys are also having this issue of a slight difference in their charts.
I don't think it makes that much difference at all as long as you follow the signals on your charts. However if you up the time frame to say the 15 min instead of the 5 min then the differences should be even less.

Here are my 15 min signals for you to compare with.

Whoops I still had a test line on that here is the correction...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 33 KB
  • #368
  • Dec 6, 2018 9:57am Dec 6, 2018 9:57am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} I don't think it makes that much difference at all as long as you follow the signals on your charts. However if you up the time frame to say the 15 min instead of the 5 min then the differences should be even less. Here are my 15 min signals for you to compare with. Whoops I still had a test line on that here is the correction... {image}
Hi Alan, thanks for the chart; and yes, it's indeed abit less different.
  • #369
  • Dec 6, 2018 7:59pm Dec 6, 2018 7:59pm
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Yours looks the same as mine to me...{image}
That's a relief and thanks for redrawing the divergence on my chart.

Also thank you for continuing to post charts with the days moves plotted on them. You must feel like you are repeating yourself, but it helps a lot.
Good Trading
  • #370
  • Dec 7, 2018 1:58am Dec 7, 2018 1:58am
Quoting aud
{quote} That's a relief and thanks for redrawing the divergence on my chart. Also thank you for continuing to post charts with the days moves plotted on them. You must feel like you are repeating yourself, but it helps a lot.
No worries...

I can't pick a direction just yet it looks pretty tied up so I will simply await developments.
  • #371
  • Dec 7, 2018 2:28am Dec 7, 2018 2:28am
is that a wee price divergence there now?
  • #372
  • Dec 7, 2018 2:37am Dec 7, 2018 2:37am
Quoting pakeha
is that a wee price divergence there now?
Looks like something is going on here as we get divergences in both directions so let it settle, I am just scalping at the moment hoping for one of them to turn into a trade.
  • #373
  • Dec 7, 2018 3:09am Dec 7, 2018 3:09am
This is what I had.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM5.png Size: 25 KB


edit: Didn't look like the average was going higher on the H1.
Good Trading
  • #374
  • Dec 7, 2018 3:22am Dec 7, 2018 3:22am
Well not a good day today...

I managed a short on the div followed by a stage 2 on the bear support and that spike stopped that trade out for a small loss. I shorted again and got my money back and closed.

Sometimes it just doesn't work the way we want it to BUT we are not deterred and look forwards to Mondays profits.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 49 KB


Note how I simply quit for the day now. I don't like to spend more time at the PC once I have failed the entry and got my money back.
  • #375
  • Dec 7, 2018 11:48am Dec 7, 2018 11:48am
Quoting Nala66
Well not a good day today... I managed a short on the div followed by a stage 2 on the bear support and that spike stopped that trade out for a small loss. I shorted again and got my money back and closed. Sometimes it just doesn't work the way we want it to BUT we are not deterred and look forwards to Mondays profits.{image} Note how I simply quit for the day now. I don't like to spend more time at the PC once I have failed the entry and got my money back.
Your comment about "sometimes it just doesnt work the way we want" is as much a part of trading as entry/exits.
If the market wrong-foots you, walking away for another day is a valid strategy, as hammering at a market that you are out of synch with can lead to further bad trades.
I like your sanguine "quit for the day", knowing tomorrow is another chance to do well.
Hope you had a good weeks trading.
  • #376
  • Dec 7, 2018 5:12pm Dec 7, 2018 5:12pm
Quoting obiwandax
{quote} Your comment about "sometimes it just doesnt work the way we want" is as much a part of trading as entry/exits. If the market wrong-foots you, walking away for another day is a valid strategy, as hammering at a market that you are out of synch with can lead to further bad trades. I like your sanguine "quit for the day", knowing tomorrow is another chance to do well. Hope you had a good weeks trading.
Yep, I think self control plays a big part in trading. Looking for stuff that just isn't there leads down the road of errors.

Now with the benefit of hindsight I can look back at yesterday and see just how bad it was compared to previous Attachment g

The market would just not settle on a sustained direction which was probably due to expectations of the NFP. Trading I find is a tiring event having to concentrate with such intensity to what one is doing, what the market is doing and what one is going to do in response. It is nice to just walk away and rest up for another time with a fresh attitude. This process makes good money so we can well afford to take a day off whenever we like.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 114 KB
  • #377
  • Dec 8, 2018 3:53am Dec 8, 2018 3:53am
Hello Alan,
I've few questions
1: Can you please elaborate about two bar test in detail, and what timeframe you look into for a two bar test.
2: My stoploss is getting hit very often before the trades goes into my direction, may be because i'm just referring to only 15m and 5m for my trades, i don't usually look at 1 hour chart. Do you always look for divergence at 1 hour chart before moving to shorter timeframes for Entering or you just enter at all divergence at smaller timeframes i.e 5m and 15m? Usually when i look at divergence at higher timeframe the market moves pretty quickly and i never get the chance to enter stage 2 and 3 trades.
3: (Referring to the attached image) Would you consider this a time to look for short trades on lower timeframes because the hourly is too oversold but there isn't any divergence on both hourly and 15m.
I would really appreciate if you can answer these questions.
Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2018-12-08 at 14.42.41.png Size: 136 KB
  • #378
  • Dec 8, 2018 4:48am Dec 8, 2018 4:48am
Quoting haris1211
Hello Alan, I've few questions 1: Can you please elaborate about two bar test in detail, and what timeframe you look into for a two bar test. 2: My stoploss is getting hit very often before the trades goes into my direction, may be because i'm just referring to only 15m and 5m for my trades, i don't usually look at 1 hour chart. Do you always look for divergence at 1 hour chart before moving to shorter timeframes for Entering or you just enter at all divergence at smaller timeframes i.e 5m and 15m? Usually when i look at...
I simply cannot understand this, I have repeatedly spoken of looking for the inference from the 1 hour chart. In your chart above the RSI is inferring an overbought position then and only then do you drop to a 5 min chart and look for a signal there. I would bet a pound to a penny there was.

Divergence on the 1 hour is just another inference we should look at dropping to the 5 min chart.

Then we have to consider the averages. Has there been a failure of a HH on one side leading to a success of a LL on the other and vice versa. On your chart you can clearly see on the next day that the average failed to make a LL the bulls pushed up above the EMA and found support and then the thing went like a rocket to make an EMA HH. The move started with a bullish divergence, then a bullish support and this was just on the hour chart. Had you taken these to be inferences and then traded at the 5 min signals there would have been plenty to take you long on that day. So on both days there was enough evidence to make the 50 pip target.

Now a two bar test is just another way of finding an inference on the 1 hour chart again the entry signal would then be given on the 5 min chart is some form. Sometimes there is nothing there so we have no trade to have a stab at. You want to be testing in the direction of the EMA but sometimes we can test towards the EMA for the pullbacks. These trades would just be scalps unless they are forming at the primary time for our one major trade of the day.
  • #379
  • Dec 8, 2018 6:53am Dec 8, 2018 6:53am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} I didn't actually get a chance to hedge today. I hedge when I get a divergence and remove the hedge also on the opposite divergence. Like this I didn't take this because I am done for the day {image}
Hi Nala
awsome thread thanks a million.
Question: your hedge is probably without a stop loss right?... I figure you are "locked in" which ever way it goes till you close either one.
  • #380
  • Dec 8, 2018 8:02am Dec 8, 2018 8:02am
Quoting cuchuflito
{quote} Hi Nala awsome thread thanks a million. Question: your hedge is probably without a stop loss right?... I figure you are "locked in" which ever way it goes till you close either one.
That is correct up to a point.

The stop is not applied until the hedge takes effect at which time the stop is placed at its BE so that if the original trade continues the hedge will be taken out of the game. If the hedge itself runs into a signal for the continuation of the original trade then the hedge is closed for any profit it has made and the TP for the primary trade can be shortened by the profit amount.
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