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EURGBP Opened Further Extension Down in 7th Swing

Hello fellow traders. Another instrument that we have been trading lately is EURGBP . In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of EURGBP , published in members area of the website. As our members know, EURGBP has incomplete bearish sequences in the cycle from the 08/28 peak. Consequently, we advised members to avoid buying the pair and keep on selling the rallies in the sequences of 3,7,or 11 swings whenever get chance. In further text we’re going to explain Swing Count and Trading Setup.
EURGBP 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 11.08.27.2018
On Nobember 7th EURGBP broke previous 10/10 low and made bearish sequences . Cycle from the 0.90976 peak looks incomplete now, calling for further weakness. We can count clear 5 swings from the 0.90976 peak. We expect bounce in 6h swing from blue box( 0.8704-0.8648), before further decline resumes in 7th swing. Although we expect bounce wave ((x)) to happen, we don’t recommend buying it against the main bearish trend. Strategy is waiting for the bounce to occur before selling short term rallies in 3,7,11 swings .

EURGBP 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 11.12.2018
We got expected bounce from the blue box. Short term recovery has made clear 3 waves and reached the equal legs at 0.8744-0.8776 ( sell zone). We expect further decline from the ideally or pull back in 3 waves at least. The pair remains bearish against the 0.89395 . We don’t recommend buying it and favor the short side.

EURGBP 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 11.13.2018
EURGBP has found sellers at blue box : 0.8744-0.8776 . Eventually the pair has made new short term low, confirming 7th swing down is in progress. Now we have incomplete bearish sequences in the short term cycle from the 0.89395 peak as well, confirming further extension down ideally.
Note: We have removed some labeling in order to protect clients’ priviliges. Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. Not every chart is Trading Signal. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.


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Elliott Wave Analysis: How Much Further Can Oil Drop?


Short term Elliott Wave view on Oil suggests that the decline starting from Oct 3 high ($76.9) remains in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from Oct 3 high, Primary wave ((1)) ended at $68.47 and Primary wave ((2)) ended at $69.66. Primary wave ((3)) ended at $54.75 and Primary wave ((4)) is proposed complete at $57.37.

Consistent with the guidelines in Impulse Elliott Wave structure, Primary wave ((3)) also unfolded as 5 waves of lesser Intermediate degree. Down from $69.66, Intermediate wave (1) of ((3)) ended at $65.74 and Intermediate wave (2) of ((3)) ended at $67.95. Intermediate wave (3) of ((3)) ended at $59.26, Intermediate wave (4) of ((3)) ended at $61.28. The final leg Intermediate wave (5) of ((3)) ended at $54.75.

Primary wave ((4)) ended at $57.37 as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Wave (W) of ((4)) ended at $56.49, wave (X) of ((4)) ended at $55.53, and wave (Y) of ((4)) ended at $57.37. Near term, while rally fails below $57.37, and more importantly below $61.35, expect Oil to extend lower. If Oil breaks above $57.37, then Oil is doing a double correction and can open more upside in 7 swing before the decline resumes. For the downside target, one way to measure wave 5 target in Elliott Wave Theory is wave 1 equal to wave 5. If we project wave ((1)) length to the beginning of wave ((4)), we can estimate potential target for wave ((5)) at $47 – $49. We don’t like buying Oil.

Oil 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Elliott Wave Analysis: Another Dead Cat Bounce in Silver?


The precious metal group does not get any break in the past 7 years. The move lower has been relentless and rally has been short lived. Silver in particular has corrected 70% from the 2011 high at $50 and still has not shown any sign of serious recovery. Our short term Elliott Wave view suggests that Silver is doing a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave move from April 19, 2018 high where Intermediate wave (1) ended at $16.06, Intermediate wave (2) ended at $17.31, Intermediate wave (3) ended at $13.94, and Intermediate wave (4) ended at $14.91.

Intermediate wave (5) is currently in progress as an impulse where Minor wave 1 of (5) ended at $13.87. Internal of Minor wave 1 also unfolded as an impulse of lesser degree where Minute wave ((i)) ended at $14.46 and Minute wave ((ii)) ended at $14.72. Minute wave ((iii)) ended at $13.91, Minute wave ((iv)) ended at $14.05 as triangle, and Minute wave ((v)) of 1 ended at $13.87. Minor wave 2 rally is currently in progress as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where Minute wave ((a)) of 2 ended at $14.25 and Minute wave ((b)) of 2 ended at $14.08. Minute wave ((c)) of 2 has a target of $14.46 – $14.69 and as far as pivot at 11/2 high ($14.91) stays intact, expect Silver to extend lower. We don’t like buying Silver.

Silver 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Elliott Wave analysis calling EURUSD to resume lower after Flat correction

Short Term Elliott Wave View on EURUSD suggests that pair is currently in Primary wave ((2)) rally to correct cycle from Sept 24 high (1.1815) before the decline resumes. Internal of Primary wave ((2)) is unfolding as a Flat Elliott Wave structure where Intermediate wave (A) ended at 1.15 and Intermediate wave (B) ended at 1.1214. A Flat is a 3-3-5 Elliott Wave structure, thus we should expect Intermediate wave (C) to be unfolding as 5 waves.

Intermediate wave (C) rally higher is taking the form of a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Minor wave 1 of (C) ended at 1.135 and Minor wave 2 of (C) ended at 1.127. Near term, expect the pair to end Minor wave 3 of (C) soon, then it should pullback in Minor wave 4 of (C) before doing another leg higher in Minor wave 5. The move in Minor wave 5 should also end Intermediate wave (C) with projected target at 1.148 – 1.154.

More important than the target area however is the momentum divergence. Minor wave 5 should show momentum divergence with Minor wave 3 before pair ends the 5 waves move. As far as momentum does not show any divergence, we can assume that EURUSD still remains to be in Minor wave 3. As far as pivot at Sept 24 high (1.1815) remains intact, pair is expected to resume lower or at least pullback in 3 waves once the 5 waves move is over. We don’t like buying the pair

EURUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)

China Stock Market Preparing New Elliott Wave Bullish Cycle

The trade war between USA & China had led to a global fear around the stock market and causing a mid-term “bear market” in China which lost 30% since the start of 2018. The latest plan is that the two leaders US President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping would meet for dinner on December 1 immediately after the G20 meeting in the Argentine capital Buenos Aires.
Trump says US is ‘doing extremely well’ with China but deal not done yet. Therefore the next meeting could be critical for this ongoing war trade talk and its result will have important effect around the market.

At ElliottWave Forecast, we believe the market is ruled by technical aspect and the news is an after-fact event to drive the market into the pre-determined direction. Therefore, understanding the Nature of the Market is key for traders to stay in the right side and follow a clear path which have nothing to do with Fundamentals or events.
For our technical explanation, we’ll be using the largest China ETF “iShares China Large-Cap ETF FXI” which tracks an index of the 50 largest and most liquid Chinese stocks traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
China Large-Cap ETF FXI Monthly Chart

Since 2008 low, we can count 5 swings sequence (Red Color) to the upside until the recent 2018 peak which isn’t an Elliott Wave count but a representation of the sequence. In this case, FXI has an incomplete bullish sequence and ideally after ending the 6th swing it will be heading higher in the 7th swings toward equal legs area $61.46 – $69.38. There, the ETF can be ending a larger 3 swings (Blue color) followed by 3 waves pullback.
After clarifying the bigger picture for FXI, we can switch to the daily time frame to understand the current structure:

From January 2018 peak, FXI declined in a 3 waves Zigzag structure and reached the extreme blue box area $38.8 – $35.76 which is a High-frequency area where the markets are likely to end cycles and make a turn. Up from there, the ETF is looking to resume the rally higher in an impulsive 5 waves structure or at least it will bounce in 3 waves to correct 2018 decline.
Consequently, China’s stock market will rally and drive the rest of global market with it in the coming few weeks based on the Monthly bullish sequence and the current daily structure. So deal or no deal between USA & China the result will be the same in favor of the Bulls.
Get our latest updates for World Indices like SPX , DAX and NIKKEI by using our Black Friday promotion: 50% Off All Monthly Plans to learn how to trade our blue boxes using the 3, 7 or 11 swings sequence. You will get access to our 78 instruments updated in 4 different time frames, Live Trading & Analysis Session done by our Expert Analysts every day, 24-hour chat room support and much more.

DAX Elliott Wave Analysis Calling Rally to Fail for Extension Lower

DAX has broken below Oct 26 low (11051) and suggests that the Index has resumed the decline lower. We are calling the decline from July 27 high (12886.83) as a triple three Elliott Wave Structure where decline to 11051.04 low on Oct 26 ended Intermediate wave (Y) and bounce to 11692.91 high on Nov 2 ended second Intermediate wave (X).

Down from 1162.91, short term Elliott Wave view suggests that the decline has resumed with the break below Intermediate wave (Y) at 11051.04. Structure of the decline is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 11310.72, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 11566.79, and Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 11009.25. Internal of Minute wave ((i)) unfolded as a 5 waves leading diagonal while the internal of Minute wave ((iii)) unfolded as 5 waves impulse of lesser Minutte degree.

Currently Minute wave ((iv)) rally is in progress and while the bounce fails below 11692.91, we expect Index to extend lower. We don’t like buying the Index and expect rally to fails in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at Nov 2 high (11692.91) stays intact.

DAX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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CADJPY Elliott Wave: Incomplete Sequence Calling Lower
CADJPY short-term Elliott wave view suggests that a bounce to 87 on 11/08/2018 high ended intermediate wave (X). Down from there, the decline unfolded as double three structure where Minute wave ((w)) ended at 85.44 low as zigzag structure. A bounce to 86.35 ended Minute wave ((x)). Then a decline to 84.61 low ended Minute wave ((y)) & completed the Minor wave W lower. Also, with this push lower pair made a new low below 10/26/2018 low (84.83). Which made the sequence from 10/02/2018 peak incomplete to the downside favoring more downside against 11/08/2018 peak (87).
Up from 84.61 low, pair is correcting the cycle from 11/08/2018 peak in wave X bounce in 3, 7 or 11 swings before decline resume once again. Near-term focus remains towards 85.52-85.92 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area to end Minor wave X bounce. Afterwards, the pair is expected to resume the downside provided the pivot at 11/08/2018 peak (87) stays intact or should produce a 3 wave reaction lower at least. We expect sellers to appear in 3, 7 or 11 swings against 87 high.
CADJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Amazon (AMZN) – Highlighting Next Area For Buyers

We recently wrote an article explaining why Mr Jeff Bezos had nothing to worry about after being down $45B in October’s market sell off and also stated the obvious fact that trend in Amazon (AMZN) is up and pull backs are a buying opportunity. AMZN reached our blue box area starting from $1477 at the end of October and buyers were waiting there as expected. We keep mentioning that once a blue box is reached, two things can happen, either the trend will resume or there will be a minimum 3 waves reaction from the blue box to allow the longs to eliminate risk on the trade by trailing stops or booking partial profits and then trailing stops. Amazon bounce quickly reached 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 9/4/2018 peak which was good enough for the longs from $1477 to get risk free. However, sellers have managed to push price below 10/30/2018 low which creates an incomplete 5 swings sequence down from 9/4/2018 peak. Let’s take a look at the chart below
Amazon (AMZN) Elliott Wave Analysis – Daily Time Frame
Break below 10/30/2018 low opens up extension lower in Amazon stock. Cycle from red x peak at 11/8/2018 has either already ended at 1420 or would end between 1420 – 1348.39 followed by a bounce which should fail below 11/8/2018 (1784) for another sell off toward 1212.32 – 855.98 area to complete a double three Elliott wave structure down from 9/4/2018 peak. Wave ((X)) bounce should see short-term sellers appearing in the sequence of 3, 7 or 11 swings while area between 1212.32 -855.98 should attract swing traders as that’s where we have our blue box and to add to that, at 1212.32, Amazon would have lost 40% of it’s value from the all time high of 2050 in September 2018 which means sentiments would be extremely bearish and that should further add to the bullishness of AMZN stock in the above mentioned area.

Facebook Ends Cycle from IPO. What’s Next For The Social Networking Giant

Even today with the explosion of advancements in quantitative analysis utilizing the most sophisticated algorithms and artificial intelligence available the debate rages on between whether a technical-based trading methodology is superior to a fundamental-based trading methodology and vice versa. That debate is examined below via analysis of individual financial instruments such as Facebook (FB).
The price of Facebook’s stock has pretty much been on bullish rip higher ever since the IPO of 2012 reaching an all-time high over this past July at 218.62. However, the company has been mired in unflattering publicity that the fundamentalists claim has taken the wind out FB’s sails. The first chink in the armor of FB came during US General Elections of 2016 when a Russian company named Internet Research Agency start buying Facebook digital ads to allegedly spread propagandist messages about various politically hotspots that included religion and immigration. This event brought the company into the biggest crises of its short history. I have to say it’s definitely a unique event to see an American company as the tool of a foreign plot to influence a major democratic election. Even so, the stock pushed higher. However, on this very day we read about a seemingly endless series of “events” which are said to have caused the company stock to decline nearly $100/share with its most recent print of 126.85.
Facebook has billions of members and was perhaps the greatest information dissemination tool ever created. Far from its stocks perch of July 2018 FB hasn’t been able to control the narrative and the fundamentalist claim this has caused the stock price to plummet. The company tensions are playing out in the mass media with corporate leadership denials, tension, finger-pointing and even testimonies in front of Congress. After some 150 million Americans were exposed to the disinformation campaign of the Russian internet troll farm, Internet Research Agency crisis, FB wasn’t quick to come clean. Now Facebook is in crises mode trying to turn sentiment to not only the American public but to the entire world. The latest event happened last week when the news came out that the company hired Definers Public Affairs to downplay public statements and deflect public scrutiny onto rival tech companies. FB has since ended the relationship this week. It seems like one issue after the other.
The events described above can definitely be part of the landscape of fundamental reasons that we now see such a decline in Facebook’s stock price. We haven’t even mentioned anything financially related. It’s simply how the masses currently “feel” about Facebook. I want to shift gears now and talk for about what we see are the technical reasons for the decline. This social network company held the initial public offering May 18, 2012. Since then we can see an advance in 5 waves from that day. The Elliott Wave Theory states that after a 5 wave advance then the instrument of analysis should regress in 3 waves lower. That sequence of 5 waves higher and 3 waves back lower is where we are now with regards to FB. The following chart shows the Elliott Wave Theory pattern of progression and regression for reference.

The Following chart show Facebook price action and showing the 5 waves advance and now 3 waves back.
Facebook Long-term Elliott Wave View


The Blue Box highlighted in the chart above encompasses a range from 135.22-101.72 and it is the area in which the 3 wave regression lower can be ending. We use these extreme areas to look for inflection points in terms of price reaction or to reverse a prior trend. In the case of FB it is in the area to look for a bottom. From the current price lows, we should see a bounce higher and also now is the time to expect the Fundamental analysis to align with the aforementioned brief primer on the technical. Something will happen to justify the coming bounce in terms of an “event”, “news”, or some other fundamental based “feeling”. In our view the Market’s nature advances in either 5 or 3 waves, but when it corrects it is always in 3, 7, or 11 waves. The question now is this decline all we will see? Or, is this the beginning of a deeper pullback and we will now only experience a 3 wave bounce higher that ultimately reverses in extension of another precipitous decline into the $80.00-60.00 area?
As we always say, nobody knows exactly what the future will bring. While it is evident that the possibility of huge decline is viable, knowing The Market Nature is the ultimate key. Buying FB within this box can be an unique opportunity that one should at least can expect a tradable bounce higher. If the bounce fails then there will be an even a greater opportunity lower. The reality is that the fundamental reason for lower price action is getting crowded and one-sided. The technicals are telling us that the company is about to stabilize and a solution to the current crises is on the horizon. Let’s see what happens!

XLY – Don’t Count the American Consumer Out Yet

The U.S. Consumer Measured Via the XLY
“The U.S. economy is the global economic driver. And within the U.S. economy, the U.S. consumer is the global driver.” James P. Gorman
We’re Entering In Negative Territory for 2018
The stock market (measured via the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average) has officially erased all of its 2018 gains. I can see from the headlines like the one pictured below from The Drudge Report that there’s certainly starting to be a bit of panic in the air.

The Parts of the Machine Matter
One of the beneficiaries of this year’s market rise was the Consumer Discretionary Sector ETF, XLY as it still remains above its 2018 low near 98 with a price currently near 101. The main reason for XLY’s rise was due to Amazon’s 23.15% weighting in the ETF and the fact that even with the recent downturn in AMZN it is still well above its 2018 low. You can see below that AMZN dwarfs its nearest XLY weighted fellow component, HD (10.6%), by over 2 to 1. Behind HD nothing comes close in terms of comparable influence upon XLY.

What are We Expecting for XLY Going Into the Holiday Shopping Season?
XLY has just now confirmed that the ETF is headed lower along side AMZN. You can see in the chart below that the most recent proposed wave count suggest that this bearish price action is merely a correction. The larger trend is indeed bullish. But, in the meantime, there exists the similarity with AMZN that traders can expect more tradable downside in the near term.
The Wave Count for XLY

The cycle from XLY’s 2009 low (15.72) remains in progress as an impulse structure, where Super Cycle degree wave (I) ended in 5 waves at 80.61 while Super Cycle degree wave (II) ended as a Flat at 67.07 on 2/11/2016 low.

Currently, it has ended the cycle from the 2/11/2016 low in Super Cycle degree wave (III) at the 118.26 high. Coming down from there XLY is remains correcting the aforementioned cycle in a Super Cycle degree wave (IV) pullback as a double three structure consisting of Cycle degree waves w – x – y. In the near term while the 112.15 Cycle degree x wave high of 11/08/2018 holds expect lower prices to target the extreme equal leg and extension area of 95-84.

If you’re curious to learn our methodology there’s no better time than now with our Black Friday Offer or our 14 Day Free Trial Offer. We look forward to seeing you around!

James
EWF Analytical Team

Elliott Wave Analysis: Further Downside Expected in Oil

Since forming the high on Oct 3 at $76.9, Oil (CL_F) has dropped more than 30% in just less than 2 months. The move lower is pretty fast and short term Elliott Wave view suggests the decline is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from $76.9, Primary wave ((1)) ended at $68.47, Primary wave ((2)) ended at $69.65, Primary wave ((3)) ended at $54.75, and Primary wave ((4)) ended at $57.98. Oil is currently in the final leg Primary wave ((5)) which looks to unfold as an ending diagonal.

An ending diagonal is a special type of 5 waves in which the subdivision is all in 3 waves. Thus, ending diagonal is 3-3-3-3-3 Elliott Wave structure. Usually Ending Diagonal appears as subdivision of wave 5 or wave C. In Oil’s case, down from Primary wave ((4)) at $57.98, Intermediate wave (1) ended at $52.77 and Intermediate wave (2) ended at $55.86. Intermediate wave (1) unfolded in 3 waves as a FLAT A-B-C where Minor wave A ended at $55.08, Minor wave B ended at $57.44, and Minor wave C ended at $52.77.

Near term, while rally fails below $57.98, Oil has scope to extend lower within Primary wave ((5)). Potential target to end the 5 waves down is 50% – 61.8% retracement of the rally from 2/11/2016 low ($26.05) which comes at $45.5 – $51.5. Afterwards, expect Oil to rally at least in 3 waves to correct the 5 waves decline from Oct 3 high ($76.9).

Oil 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Elliott Wave Analysis: EURUSD 5 waves structure looking for more downside

Cycle from Sept 24 high (1.182) in EURUSD remains in progress as an Elliott Wave impulse structure where Primary wave ((1)) ended at 1.1214 and Primary wave ((2)) is proposed complete at 1.147. Pair still needs to break below Primary wave ((1)) at 1.1214 to validate this view. Until then, we still can’t rule out a double correction in Primary wave ((2)) in the form of WXY. Near term, the decline from 1.147 is unfolding in what looks like a leading diagonal Elliott Wave structure.

Down from 1.147, Minor wave 1 ended at 1.1356, Minor wave 2 ended at 1.1434, Minor wave 3 ended at 1.1325, and Minor wave 4 ended at 1.1384. Pair should soon end Minor wave 5 which also completes Intermediate wave (1). Afterwards, it should bounce in Intermediate wave 2 to correct cycle from 11/20 high (1.147) in before the decline resumes. We don’t like buying the pair and expect sellers to appear in 3-7-11 swing as far as pivot at 1.147 high stays intact.

If pair breaks above proposed Primary wave ((2) at 1.147, then it’s doing a double correction and can open further upside towards 1.16 area before the decline resumes. If this happens, we still expect pair to extend lower or at least pullback in 3 waves from 1.16 area as far as pivot at 9/24 high (1.1815) stays intact.

EURUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)

G20 Meeting May Dictate Path of Stock Market for Rest of the Year

Global Indices continue to retreat in the fourth quarter of this year as the combination of Fed’s quantitative tightening and escalating trade wars threatens to derail the 10 year bullish market. Below is the Year-to-Date return of the Global Indices as of Friday Nov 24:

Next week, global Indices will have a chance to find support if the U.S. and China are able to bridge their differences in G20 meeting. Beijing and Washington have engaged in an escalating tit-for-tat trade war since this summer. The U.S imposed tariffs on Chinese goods worth US $250 billion per year, while China imposed tariffs on U.S. goods worth US $110 billion. The IMF warned that rising trade tensions could cost the global economy $430 billion and lower global growth by as much as 0.5% by 2020.

President Trump and Xi will meet on the sidelines on Nov 31 and Dec 1 in Argentina at G20 summit to try to strike a deal. President Trump has threatened to increase the tariffs on $200 billion Chinese imports from 10% – 25% starting January next year if there’s no agreement. On the other hand, China does not show any willingness to bend the knee and lose face. The summit will be an opportunity to broker ceasefire and avoid further escalation, although it remains to be seen if it can reverse the previously announced tariffs.
Should there be a truce made, global Indices can see support after the current selloff is over and see at least a 3 waves rally. However, if the meeting fails to produce any deal, then global Indices could continue to see weakness until the end of the year.
Nasdaq Daily Outlook suggests lower stock market

Despite still showing positive YTD return, Nasdaq has pull back 16% from the peak of 2018 in less than 2 months. The Index shows incomplete bearish sequence from 10.1.2018 high favoring further downside to 5815 – 6085 blue box as far as near term rally stays below 7231.3. We should expect the Index to continue lower next week towards the blue box. If the Index has reached the box prior to the G20 meeting and the outcome is positive, then it can trigger at least a 3 waves rally from the box to at least correct the decline from 10.1.2018 peak.
Nasdaq Short Term Elliott Wave Outlook

Nasdaq shows an incomplete bearish sequence from 10/1 peak (7728.7) as indicated by the bearish sequence stamp and red color right side stamp on the charts. Decline from 10/1 peak is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure where Cycle degree wave W ended at 6580.5 and Cycle degree wave X ended at 7231. Minor wave Y remains in progress, and down from 7231, Primary wave ((W)) ended at 6712.25 and Primary wave ((X)) ended at 6938.99. Near term, while bounces stay below there, and more importantly below 7231, expect the Index to extend lower.
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USDX Forecasting The Rally After Pull Back


Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of USDX published in members area of The Website. As our members know, USDX has incomplete bullish sequences. Break of August 15th peak has made the structure incomplete to the upside, suggesting the USDX is bullish against the 93.79 low. The index has been bullish against the 95.67 low. Consequently, we advised our members to avoid selling it, keep favouring the long side. In further text we’re going to explain the Elliott Wave Structure and Forecast .
USDX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 11.16.2018
Back then USDX has had short term cycle from the 93.79 low incomplete as well . The Index has been bullish against the 95.67 low. As we can see on the chart below, our forecast suggests the price is ending the pull back against the 95.67 low. Equal legs is already reached at 96.42-96.19 ( blue box- buyers area). Due to previous incomplete bullish sequences we knew that buyers should ideally appear for a 3 wave bounce at least. We don’t recommend selling the Index and favor the long side against the 95.67 low in first degree and against the 93.79 low in second degree.

USDX 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 11.24.2018
Eventually the price has broken 95.67 pivot that tweaked Elliott Wave Count a little bit that now suggests current pull back is correcting the 93.79 cycle. Anyway the index still remains bullish against the 93.79 low. The price has reached buyers zone ( blue box ) at 96.42-95.83. Buyers have appeared shortly after and we are getting nice bounce so far. Now we’re calling wave ((2) pull back completed at 96.06 low. However, we need to see break above 11/12 peak to get confirmation that next leg higher is in progress. Until we get that break, buying short term dips against the 96.06 low is not recommended. If USDX breaks that short term low, we would be doing double correction lower from the 11/12 peak..
Note: Market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.

Elliott Wave Forecast
We cover 78 instruments in total, but not every Elliott Wave chart is trading recommendation. We present Official Trading Recommendations in Live Trading Room. If not a member yet, Sign Up for Free 14 days Trial now and get access to new trading opportunities. Through time we have developed a very respectable trading strategy which defines Entry, Stop Loss and Take Profit levels with high accuracy.
Welcome to Elliott Wave Forecast !

Elliott Wave Analysis: Amazon Rally Should Fail for Yet Another Low

Short term Elliott Wave View in Amazon (ticker: AMZN) suggests that the bounce to 1784 ended Cycle degree wave x. Cycle degree wave y is currently in progress lower as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 1784, Primary wave ((W)) ended at 1420 and Primary wave ((X)) bounce is in progress towards 1631.54 – 1712.09 area before the decline resumes. Internal of Primary wave ((W)) unfolded as a zigzag where Intermediate wave (A) ended at 1546.51, Intermediate wave (B) ended at 1624.82, and Intermediate wave (C) ended at 1420.

Internal of Primary wave ((X)) is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure where Intermediate wave (W) ended at 1550 and Intermediate wave (X) ended at 1502.10. Expect the stock to extend higher in Intermediate wave (Y) of ((X)) towards 1631.54 – 1712.09, then as far as pivot at 1784 high stays intact, the stock should extend lower or pullback in 3 waves at least. We don’t like buying the proposed rally.

AMZN 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Elliott Wave Analysis: USDJPY Looking for Further Strength

Short term Elliott Wave View in USDJPY suggests that the pullback to 112.27 ended Minute wave ((x)). Internal of Minute wave ((x)) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where Minutte wave (a) ended at 113.07, Minutte wave (b) ended at 113.7, and Minutte wave (c) of ((x)) ended at 112.27. Minute wave ((y)) rally is now progressing as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from 112.27, Minutte wave (w) ended at 114.04 with internal as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Subminutte wave a of (w) ended at 113.23, Subminutte wave b of (w) ended at 112.63, and Subminutte wave c of (w) ended at 114.04. Near term, Minutte wave (x) is expected to find support in 3-7-11 swing as far as pivot at 11/20 low (112.27) remains intact. We don’t like selling the pair.

USDJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Elliott Wave Analysis: Suggest Supported NZDUSD
NZDUSD short-term Elliott wave analysis suggests that a decline to 0.6751 low ended primary wave ((2)) pullback. The internals of that pullback unfolded as double three structure where intermediate wave (W) ended at 0.6780 low in lesser degree zigzag structure. Up from there, a 3 wave bounce to 0.6852 high ended intermediate wave (X). Then finally a decline to 0.6751 low ended intermediate wave (Y) in lesser degree double three structure & finally completed primary wave ((2)).
Up from 0.6751 low, the pair has made a new high above 11/16/2018 peak favoring a next leg higher within primary wave ((3)). Thus suggests supported to higher NZDUSD looking for more upside. Above from 0.6751 low, the initial rally to 0.6809 high ended Minute wave ((i)). Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 0.6770 low, Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 0.6879 & Minute wave ((iv)) ended at 0.6851 low. Minute wave ((v)) ended at 0.6885 high which also completed Minor wave 1.
Down from there, Minor wave 2 pullback remain in progress to correct the rally from 0.6751 low in 3, 7 or 11 swings before further upside renew. Short-term focus remains towards 0.6833-0.6803 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of a Minute wave ((a))-((b)) to end first 3 swings from the peak & find buyers there for 3 wave bounce at least. We don’t like selling it and expect buyers to appear in 3, 7 or 11 swings against 0.6751 low.
NZDUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Micron Technology (MU) – Reversal Around the Corner

In the recent 2 years, Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) Investors were in the sky as the stock gained +500% in value since 2016 lows. The global corporation is one of largest semiconductor producer in USA behind giants like Intel & NVDIA.
In the recent 6 months, the prices of dynamic random-access memory DRAM and NAND flash memory decreased significantly which was reflected on Micron Technology’s stock which suffered a 45% decline. However, despite the recent decline MU is still up 260% since 2016 low and the technical picture is suggesting a recovery to take place.
One of the most commune corrective structure is the double three 7 swings WXY. The Market does 3 waves move, then it corrects in 3 waves followed with another 3 waves move to the same direction of the previous 3 waves. In total, it has 7 swings which can be seen in the 4H Chart of MU as the stock has been declining since May 2018 in corrective structures. In addition, MU reached the 100% Fibonacci extension $34.63 represented by the blue box area which is a High-frequency areas where markets are likely to end cycles and make a turn.
Micron Technology 4H Chart 12.02.2018

Consequently, MU is looking at least for 3 waves bounce to correct the cycle from May 2018 peak as a first step of recovery, then based on the rest of the stock market it has the possibility of rallying further targeting new all time highs.
The move higher can take place based on the weekly bullish trend since 2008 in the Semiconductor sector which is still intact. We can see in the next chart of ETF SMH that an impulsive structure is still in progress and a final wave to the upside is needed before ending an impulsive 5 waves move advance based on Elliott Wave Theory. Therefore a direct correlation between SMH and MU is suggestion that both instrument will remain supported as long as 2015 /2016 lows are intact.
SMH Weekly Chart 12.02.2018

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Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) – New Buying Opportu
Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) has grown to become a leader in manufacturing graphic processing units (GPU) for computer and gaming devices as well as Artificial Intelligence (AI). In the recent 2 years, the American company benefited the most from the growth of cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence markets. However, back in October 2018, the stock made a major peak at $292 and started correcting to the downside loosing more than 50% of its value in 2 months.

Nvidia stock wasn’t the only one being hit in recent decline as it’s direct competitor, Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), suffered a 45% decline in October among other Technology and Semiconductor stocks around the world. Market sentiment started to switch as many investors considered the move to be just the the first leg of a bear market but is that really the case? It could be or it the current decline could end all the correction and start another major rally into new all time highs. We do understand that long-term investors take positions based on fundamentals analysis such as the company’s competitive environment, corporate strategy, management, products, earnings outlook, valuation and / or balance sheet but technical analysis can highlight high probability inflection areas in the market which can act as a great entry points regardless of whether you are a trader looking to hold the stock for a few weeks to a few months or an investor looking for to hold the stock from a few months to a few years. I will present the technical picture based in Elliott Wave and highlight the next inflection area in the stock.
Based on the Elliott Wave Theory, NVDA has been in a bullish trend since IPO low in 1999 and the stock advanced in an impulsive 5 waves move. The multi-year rally finally ended last month representing the Grand Super Cycle wave ((I)) which triggered the current decline taking place in wave ((II)). According to Elliott Wave Theory, when a 5 wave impulse ends, there will be a correction caused by buyers taking profits.
Corrections can take many different forms and in this case correction appears to be taking the form of a double three structure which has a measured move target at $105.54. It is the 100% Fibonacci extension of the decline from $292 high to $176 low projected lower from $222 peak. So, we can see a final leg lower into the measured move target area before Christmas followed by a significant EOY rally. If we do get the final leg lower and the subsequent rally turns out to be the start of a move to new all time high, then it would be a great opportunity to be able to catch such type of a move. Alternatively, it could produce a bounce toward 50 – 61.8 Fibonacci retracement area of the decline from $222 peak.
However at this stage, Nvidia stock is reacting higher from the 61.8 Fibonacci extension area $150 – $133 and there is high chance of the correction already ended at 11/20/2018 low. The idea is supported by the fact that Semiconductor ETF SMH and Advanced Micro Device AMD both reached their respective 100% extension ( Buying Area ) so consequently the sector is ready to resume the rally higher or bounce in larger 3 waves at least.
Nvidia NVDA Daily Chart 12.02.2018


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Elliott Wave Analysis: Further Weakness Expected in USDJPY

Short term Elliott Wave view in USDJPY suggests that cycle from 11/12 peak (114.21) remains in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 114.21, Minute wave ((w)) ended at 112.27 and Minute wave ((x)) bounce ended at 114.03. Internal of Minute wave ((x)) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where Minutte wave (a) ended at 113.23, Minutte wave (b) ended at 112.63, and Minutte wave (c) of ((x)) ended at 114.03.

Minute wave ((y)) lower is currently in progress and the internal is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure in lesser degree. Down from 114.03, Minutte wave (w) ended at 112.54 as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure, and Minutte wave (x) bounce is correcting cycle from 11/29 high before the decline resumes. We expect sellers to appear after Minutte wave (x) bounce is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 114.03 high stays intact.

USDJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)