My VSA journal

Last thread creation today, I swear! XD

So I've been getting back into the old habit and so far, I've been doing pretty well with VSA. Most of my success has been changing my loss/profit taking strategies, but perhaps an equally or slightly less direct cause is my discipline in trading. For me, a detailed plan explaining exactly what I do, exactly how to take profit and exactly when to cut my losses, has made remarkable difference in my trading. I hope to go live once again soon. If things go as they have, I may very well.

So the plan. THE PLAN. Put it on an altar, kneel before it before every trading session. Follow it exactly, do nothing that isn't in the plan, do everything that is. It's a metaphorical altar and I metaphorically kneel. Technically I just run a computer simulation and don't actually trade (yet) so this thread is pretty much a lie. XD

Ok, so the plan. VSA is difficult to hash into a plan because so much depends on context so my plan is rather elaborate. Do I go long because I see a small down bar on low volume indicating no demand? Maybe. I will try to do a workup of everything I have put together so far (for my own benefit.) In short, I use VSA to analyze the market and then use indicators on smaller timeframes to actually enter the market. I only use moving averages, volatility and volume indicators. I trade the Daily, 1 hour and 5 minute charts, though I do occasionally peek at the 15m and weekly charts for context or a different perspective. I also trade futures, but will focus my analysis here on FX.

As far as money management goes, I calculate the first profit target based on the volatility of the short/medium term volatility and the second based on the medium/long term volatility. Once I hit the short term, however, I lock in partial (50%) profit and begin trailing my stop manually. For losses, if I will accept no more than .5% loss, though I will take a partial (50%-75%) exit early at signals that the market is about to change directions. This limits how much I can lose without getting out of the trade completely, while maximizing how much I can earn while still taking some profit.

One of the most important things: If I am in a trade and manually watching for stops, I will under no circumstances just let the market go where it will. If I cannot stay in front of my PC, I will set alerts (I have used alertfx for many years now) to text my phone at higher and lower price points so I can stay on top of what I need to do. I lost many a trade because I went to bed in profit and woke up stopped out.

Anyhow, without further ado, I will be posting analysis shortly.

Soooo. EURUSD. On the hourly, there are 2 large down bars on super high volume followed by a much smaller one with a considerably smaller spread. Lo and behold the market has gone sideways. The last This is clearly climactic action from the recent downward push. While these are clearly signs of the end of the downward move, and as a result, signs of strength, the daily shows a long term downtrend which has been in motion pretty much an entire year and isn't showing many signs of weakness. 2 high volume daily up bars on the most recent lows might suggest some serious selling, especially when the up bars are closing in the middle. Alliteration aside, signs of strength on the hourly, signs of weakness on daily.

My current outlook- trade short term with smaller timeframes while avoiding news and major support/resistance or wait for development on the daily. Plenty of other pairs to trade that are setting up much more nicely so I think I'll probably sit this one out.


BTC/USD I was hesitant to put this down, I'm not done analyzing the mid/short term. I know this is super doom and gloom weekend for BTC cause oh noes, someone dumped $20 billion worth of BTC into other cryptos. But I've learned that bad news means look for signals to buy. I'm looking at the daily chart like the Euro. Massive volume down bar, followed by another massive volume downbar with much less spread and closes off the highs. Lots and lots and lots of selling, but if the volume is increasing and the bar is actually moving less, plus closing off the highs, then buying is clearly overcoming all the selling. Then, after a confirmation up bar this just indicates that whoever is doing the buying isn't actually trying to push the price higher, it just kinda started coasting, losing all its momentum. If ever there were a selling climax, that'd be it right there.

On the hourly, however, there is a clear markdown and markup. It made a strong upmove on lower volume than the markdown (path of leas resistance, right?) and started going a little sideways today. This is followed by a no supply down bar on low volume and spread. This is followed by a confirmation up bar. If it weren't Saturday, I'd probably trade this short term, but I'm expecting some more sideways action and probably a nasty shakeout coming before Id commit. It'll be on my radar for the next few weeks though.

Anyhow, that'll do it for me today. My kids have a Christmas parade (Cub Scouts) tonight, so I'mma go shower! Happy trading folks!

I like being right. lol I actually lost out on 2 longs prior to this one and went positive on a short term down move prior to the blast off. I already closed half for profit and set stop to B/E. No matter what, I'm starting this week off right despite losing the first 2 trades. Ok, so the analysis goes all the way back to last week....


We had some serious stopping power. The 15m illustrates this well and I remarked on it already. Strong stopping power and the market began to move sideways. Weekend goes by, we...oh my gosh what in the world? We gap up! Well what was the word from everyone? Down trend, plummeting, huge volume spikes as it pushed ever downward. You could probably literally just countertrade the news. XD Anyhow, price action and indicators showed no indication to slowing down if volume was ignored. So what's the first thing every one is expecting when they're bearish and see a gap up? An immediate move down to where we last left off. A retracement to cover if nothing else, right? With such a strong downtrend in the background? Surely a retracement at least? Which is precisely why that first bar shows a massive push down, but look, it closed really, really high for it to be a healthy down bar and no unusual volume despite the humongous spread. And look at the volume. It's average. Perfectly average. Except it should be the smallest volume in sight since A) Market open is one of the slowest trading hours every single day, and B) It's Sunday in the US and midnight still in the UK, nobody is trading really. And in that context, that average volume is downright suspicious. Way too much volume. Especially since the spread was so ridiculously, unusually, unnaturally wide. I mean, it's the biggest bar on the chart. When the market should be moving its slowest...

Another thing that helped notice this is the understanding that there was a day and a half between that gap. and if you can imagine a larger space between Friday and Sunday, perhaps a Saturday and half a Sunday's worth of gap,(I'm Central US TZ) it makes a clear, move, trending beautifully to the upside, including several hours during a very lively Sunday. The market was already going 7 hours before I got in that trade, which was about an hour ago.

Anyhow, I'm gonna keep analyzing this movement. I'm suspecting a good uptrend.

I'll try to not be too excited or become overconfident. Many a man has buried himself with his own pride in the markets- myself included. This will end up being a minmum of 1.5% net gain.

Took another trade after seeing this on the 1m. It bounced, retested and I took it. I rode it up, closed the first order, half the second, again, stop is B/E.

Things ever just go so well you just start getting suspicious?

Just decided to close it out for a net daily trade gain of 2% in a couple hours.
Drawdown of .9%, earned 3%. Does .9% feel high? I suppose not with a couple losses before winning. IDK it do be that way sometimes. Now lets see if I can be consistent with this level success for the rest of the week. I'm gonna try to stay focused.

Last one(s) of the day. While writing that last post, I noticed that the last bar I took was super high volume. I knew it would start moving sideways, it would need to retrace. So I let it define the boundaries with the dip down to 38%, shorted on retest of highs. I figured the 100 MA and 50% would match up and join. See second pic for exactly how far it did go. And I'll explain what's about to happen too.

the tops of that push up are waning. Didn't make it to the high of the trend even. So on that last push up, ultra high volume. I was in the red, but once I saw that volume, I waited for the market to start falling again and doubled my position. I knew. I did close them out on the 50%. Left a lot on the table, but I'll take my almost 4% net gain and shut up about it.

It's going to retest up before it falls again. There will be another entry coming again shortly for a sell position. probably around 1.3665-1.3686 as the peak. When it turns, it's going down pretty hard. The longer term probably needs retrace too. 15 minute is super strong. I'm done, though. I've traded WAY more than I was expecting to. So I'm done. But we're going to see a short term down trend, I'm pretty sure of it, and a retracement on the 15m in the next hour or so, I believe. I'll just watch.

It is up. I'm not actually trading this, but it's ready to turn.

I didn't explain theprevious bar. Why it was important. Volume was up, and it went literally nowhere on a short spread with high volume indicating weakness about where I was expecting to see it. I expected it there because of the fib, but also because there was resistance in the background at those levels. It coasted up past it on low volume and started dropping.

Ok going to bed. Fib is the total upmove of the day so far as seen from the 15M chart. I'm pleased. I'm also pleased I had the self control not to take it as I saw it develop. Notice the no demand bar is the last blue bar before the drop, with a beautiful confirmation down bar right after. No demand is a lower volume than at least the last 2 bars, considered "low volume" when compared to the average and it closes off its high. Next bar down is confirmation, and it falls. This is all pretty textbook.



Edit: The "confirmation" in the confirmation bar is that it is a down bar, but the fact that it closed lower than the low of the previous bar is one of my entry signals when I'm expecting lower prices imminently anyways. The fact that both qualities were there was just like candy. I can't believe I FORCED myself to miss out. What kind of sadist does that to himself? I guess someone who needs to consistently prove to himself that he is capable of living through psychological torment of "missing out." I had made more than I dreamed. Is it weird that I try to make myself believe that my $100k demo is actually real money? Visualization, right? Believe it, put it out in the world, and who knows, right? But more importantly, it helps me consider my risk as if it were real money and not a digital account I can just "reset" when things go awry. Cause dat's just how it be sometimes. Awry. I am starting to hope nobody reads this. lol I mean, it is for me, after all, but I'm already embarrassed by these posts. I hope I laugh about them years from now...from a yacht. XD

Saw this developing and rode it up. Just closed it. I lost .8% thanks to a tight stop loss I set so I could wash dishes. I'll be waiting for confirmation that this is a valid trendline, but either way, I'm expecting a little side action followed by sharp move down, probably stopped on high volume and then a lovely coasting up motion from there to create the bones of a powerful upmove on the mid term TF. After the loss and gain, I'm about .6% up. Not as much as I would like, but that is my penance for being impatient. FOMO, the struggle is real.

I feel very in tune with the market as it is. I hope it lasts. I like winning.

Hold onto your butts, this is going down. I'm short at the very tippy top. And one wasn't enough. After a series of confirmations, I took an extra position. So this is either a ridiculously good winner or an easy to swallow loser. I'm not sure now, but there's something rather confusing going on now. I've lost the market I think.

I just suffered a series of drawdowns trying to get into this market. My account is still positive by quite a bit, but after a series of losses and feeling like not knowing where the market is going, I'm going to step away want watch it develop until I can feel aligned with it again.


It was really weird. It was like the market ran out of gas on all timeframes. Everything just stopped and shifted gears. Crazy. Ihave learned an important lesson. When the volatility dies completely on all TF, let it start moving again before even trying to analyze the markets. I will not forget.


Further Edit: I do believe that leaving a situation where there is no volatility, the composite operators have to push the market at first, to build sentiment. Or people do it themselves, slowly but surely, aligning into clear trends that can then be read and manipulated. It seems that high volume down bars in the middle of an upward move seem like continuation signals after this loss of movement happens. Just the MM liquidating shares to push the market higher so that it actually starts getting people buying. Either for them to sell into or to move price. I'm finding it hard to discern.

I think I understand. What I do requires a reasonable amount of volatility. The reason yesterday went so well is because of the gap and the scramble of traders to take advantage of it. I forgot a very important part of my plan- trade between 11p and 5a, capturing a large chunk of the London session. Since then, signals have been clearer, and I have been much more profitable. It may be a simple matter of not enough volatility to capture enough movement to get past the spread. I'll need to take a look at the minimum volatility requirements for me to trade. So far, my account is in recovery and it is actually going well again.

I finally caught the move I was trying to catch this morning. I was trading against the trend and volatility was low, which I think is why I failed so hard last night. Market conditions were rough for me because for some reason I was trying to catch tops and short them. When I did, it was a jackpot winner, propelling my account back up and over 5% profit in total, but the consistent initial losses were painful. I need to learn to minimize those losses by trading with the trend and being patient, knowing that what I do is valid. Just breathe, Sparky. XD


Anticipating a medium term move in one direction and entering in that direction on small timeframe signals typically results in small wins and losses, usually to the positive. but it also maximizes the chance of entering that intended move on a longer timeframe with a huge position and minimal risk. The jackpot. Everyone says don't try to make all your money in one super big win. I say don't limit yourself to not being able to to hit jackpot trades, just minimize your risk by trading in that direction on a smaller time frame and letting your runners run with partial profit and a break even stop loss. That's my idea. So far so good. Day 2 trading will result in a net total of ~2% gain for a grand total of 5.5% net gain in 2 days of trading. My account volatility is a problem. I need to reduce my lot size considerably. My wins are larger than my losses and provided that I win at least as many as I lose, that's the most important metric, but I'm trying to reduce the possibility of having even a 2% draw down. That would require a much smaller lot size and result in a slower, yet more consistent increase in account balance. If I can push 3% in a day, just trying to capture 10% in a month should be reasonable even with a reduced lot size of 1/10th or 1/5th. And that's a rather respectable number in all honesty. If I had 100k account consistently cranking out 10% a month, I could live on 10k. I wouldn't- I would grow the account, but still, it's a nice visualization. I understand that growing an account to live off of requires a more aggressive risk appetite than maintaining, but all of the principles should remain the same, just with less exposure.

I'm going to master these skills, I'm going to become a professional trader, I'm going to make myself wealthy. No matter what. No matter how many times I have to reevaluate what I do, no matter what losses I suffer. I'm going to make it work.

I bet this retreats in a neat and orderly fashion...


It's hard to say what I just witnessed. I know the gap up wasn't intentional but it tipped the scales of supply and demand. There should be a huge increase in volatility over the next couple hours as a result. I'm still short. Im negative, but this is going to swing down even harder than it moved up. I'm almost certain.

This was the result. They grabbed a bunch of orders right before the upswing so fast there was no way to possibly get into the market there.


I shorted this the instant that whatever happened...happened. Ireally should've waited for some more development. My patience is becoming a concern. I''m so afraid of missing out on the move that I jump in early. Then I'm waiting, capable of being shaken out if my resolve wavers. And it has gone against me pretty hard when I was in a poor position to begin with. More than I'm comfortable with, that's for sure. But I'm still really really sure it's headed down. It is going to have to revisit that low below that pin before it is finished swinging now. I'm almost certain of it.

I left a lot of money on the table with my impatience. I should've waited to see what would happen, realize that the up move was temporary to eliminate the volatility and then go short at the top of the trading range. But whatever, I've profited a bit and will let the rest run until I see major reversal patterns and signs of strength. I'm expecting a significant move down, though. Either way, I win, even if the market kept me waiting on it all freaking day and really tested my resolve.

The cake is a lie. Erm. The trend. That's what's a lie. The cake is delicious and just right around that corner... Come to think of it, the trend is too. Nothing to see here folks. I might have been up too long trading and am now delirious. That doesn't looked spelled right. Had to google it, and that's how you spell it. Delirious. Feels like it needs another E crammed in there somewhere.

XD

This screams sell. And that's how the market will sit in front of most retail traders. The daily is just as bad. Crossed the 50 MA and 100 MA, there's a head and shoulders pattern on the hourly, I'm saving this picture because I want to review what it actually does compared to what it looks like it wants to.

IDK, that seems like that would just create a super strong desire to short this market for a lot of reasons. Lots. Bad News (for the US, good for CAD, creating a strong desire to short), strong down move and it looks as if it has retraced because you're at the top of an established trading range. It's the safest place you could possibly short, isn't it? As a matter of fact, it just closed lower, creating what seems like a bounce pattern to the downside and a selling opportunity. Interesting..... I wonder if it'll gap up on Sunday. Guess we'll see.

As for my EJ trade, the close put me well in profit. I will open a buy order if price manages to drop far enough down. I understand supply and demand now. I understand how it works. Or whatever you wanna call it. This kinda makes me wanna trade options. Cause I know things. And if I could limit my risk to being wrong and it not going where I expect it, but lose no more money, my risk is limited to the option. I might have to look into that cause that sounds nice...

So my goal this week is reduced drawdown, minimal losses. I want to lose no more than 650 this (or any) week. I want to make at least @2k over the next 2 weeks. I've decided to try to meet the requirements for a Combine. It seems to be the shortest path from here to making real money trading forex. But their requirements are very strict in terms of minimizing losses so that will be my primary focus. I will only trade when volume begins to coil around a specific price, I will begin to enter small trades upon sharp moves to the opposite side so that I may enter near the shakeout, minimizing stops and maximizing profits.

I will trade smaller amounts so that I will have a staggered entry that risks no more than a total of 1/2% on the combined trades. That way, if I don't pick the top/bottom right away, the average entry will still be considerably lower. Once price has made its first upmove to my initial profit target (higher TF ATR), I will close for half profit and set the SL to break even. From that point forward, that trade can never be anything but either a win or a great win. I already did this, actually. I left a tiny (.1 lot on a 100k account) trade open over the weekend on EJ which is accumulating, just like the EURUSD on the weekly. I knew a down move was imminent, so I stayed in it till close and the very last minute was a strong drop, putting me into profit. All Euro is planning to go up, I think, not sure about Euro Cable. I wouldn't be surprised if price pulls down before the news release and then skyrockets off after or pulls down on the News release and then catapults up from there. I'll wait to see what price does but I am interested to see if this will be the catalyst that propels price up.

That is how you win though. Small profit, move to break even, take advantage if it runs. Not every trade will be a home run, but some will be and there will be small profits on the way to help minimize the losses. This will also put me out of good trades that stop me out just to carry on in the right direction, but missing out is a part of trading and trying to fight that will result in unnecessary losses. Lets have a good week.

I need to learn more patience. I had a $225 series of losses. I saw the big volume up bars, I knew the professionals were selling. And I started trying to do the same. I got stopped a few times, closed a few trades manually and pretty much broke even. I was a tiny bit to the upside. Then I waited for like 6 hours for the market to actually show signs of exhaustion, entered, and knocked the trade out of the park for a 70 pip move, which for me, was about $180 since I'm trading so small. That's 9% of my goal. Not bad. Now I just need to replicate that like 11 more times. I can increase my position once I slide towards profitability and risk a little of what I've made. Just need to be cautious with that and not risk everything on one or two trades. I do NOT want to have to start over.

Patience, Captain. Patience.


I stopped marking all my trades because I do take several. I was actually up the Cable/Yen when Cable's GDP came in, I was on the right side of the most that followed after seeing the big guys setting up for it. But I only traded a microlot. It was a 15 pip win, putting my actual total of pips to 84 positive for the day. My biggest loss was on a 1 lot trade ($225) so all in all, I lost about 25 pips, earned around 115. With a more standardized lot size, that would've amounted to a great day rather than a good day. Another thing I will try consider as I trade tonight.

I just have a difficult time trading in an uptrend. I'm much better at catching shorts. They just move in a way that makes sense to me when I'm analyzing bars, I suppose. It is why I am sometimes bucking the trend because I'm trying to do what works in a downtrend during an uptrend. I know this. But I'm having difficulty figuring out when a downtrend is occurring because I'm constantly picking tops and bottoms, catching a reversal. Which, in a range or a downtrend, entering when price slows to the upside just makes sense.

I lose and lose and lose until I start winning it back as it turns to a downtrend. I have just seen large up bars again and again with no down move in sight. I was baffled as to why that was happening. Utterly baffled. And the last time I struggled like this? During an uptrend before it nose dived back on the 4th. But the daily on the Euro is in a downtrend. So it would only make sense that I could place more winning trades in a downtrend as a downtrend trader. But I still need to learn how to pick the better entries, only trade in a clear downtrend, something. I lost everything I have earned yesterday, came close to my max negative P&L before getting back to the upside. All in all, I'm close to break even again. I'd rather be a break even trader than a losing trader though. Progress is key, I suppose. I'm going to try harder. I know I can do this. It really isn't hard. I'm just needing more experience with being patient and cherry picking my trades I think.