Xi Jinping and Donald Trump&#x2019;s post-G20 dinner ends with applause

Bonds down, tariffs down = weak USD

9jatrader

Dec 2, 2018 3:49am

If you have been trading, you would know currency is not based on only one news.

COGSx86

Dec 2, 2018 9:35am

Quoting aaven

Disliked

{quote} Master Yoda, One clarification, whenever you say ,"Bonds are down", you are implying that the bond yields are down, correct? Thanks

Ignored

Yes bond yields, not futures! With China buying more US products, they need more US dollars, to get US dollars they need to deposit Yuan at the banks, banks will leverage and turn around buying more bonds, dropping bond prices putting more USD in circulation.

A drop of bond prices is a increase of USD in circulation. More Usd in circulation results in a weaker UsD!

warrensapp

Dec 2, 2018 10:49am

Quoting aaven

Disliked

{quote} Master Yoda, One clarification, whenever you say ,"Bonds are down", you are implying that the bond yields are down, correct? Thanks

Ignored

Quoting COGSx86

Disliked

{quote} Yes bond yields, not futures! With China buying more US products, they need more US dollars, to get US dollars they need to deposit Yuan at the banks, banks will leverage and turn around buying more bonds, dropping bond prices putting more USD in circulation. A drop of bond prices is a increase of USD in circulation. More Usd in circulation results in a weaker UsD!

Ignored

I love you guys. Thank you for teaching.

Dec 2, 2018 2:42am

Quoting danasa

Disliked

Who cares what this means, you do not reverse an titanic oil tanker on a dime...big buys have already sold out on stocks, and have taken heavy positions on shorts. You think silly thing like Trump-Xi weekend tea party will cause instant billions of dollars positions of which most were carefully eased into using algo bots not to move price away from target region? My friends, read charts. From chart, the main benefactor are likely, AUDUSD going uptrend, has broken that downtrend was waiting for stimulus to go up! EURUSD, seem to have been undergoing...

Ignored

It’s not that I don’t agree with you, but you are forgetting something. The big guys who presumably have heavy shorts also have decent profits on those shorts which gives them the freedom of choice.

You need to know that if one of them begins to take profit the avalanche effect will kick off and the whole landscape will change in a minute.

So don’t take anything for granted. Follow the price action and trade what you see, not what you think.

Dec 2, 2018 5:10am

Quoting danasa

Disliked

Ah...the inter-market analysis, anyway, i enjoyed your discussion, brr001 and NotATrader, let's see how it will play out, after all we are the small fishes riding on dragons' tail. We keep looking for more clues, where they fly to, we tag on! But seriously, why, do people keep believing stocks will recover? forget the SPX, DJIA, NASDAQ100, zoom into individual company charts, have you seen the carnage? Have you ever seen stock price recovered from these level of distribution carnage to continue higher, history doesn't have an example of such miracle....

Ignored

I am not particularly long actually. I always hedge my positions over the weekend, but not necessarily locked. So my overall bias is a little bit bullish indeed, but my money management allows me for another 500 pips agains me. So nothing to worry about here.

When that’s said I really don’t care much which way the market goes. I am the Hedge Master and the Money Machine with probably one of the best strategies available.

Good luck and let’s hope there are no sudden spikes of 200 pips per candle 😉👍

Dec 2, 2018 1:52am

Who cares what this means, you do not reverse an titanic oil tanker on a dime...big buys have already sold out on stocks, and have taken heavy positions on shorts. You think silly thing like Trump-Xi weekend tea party will cause instant billions of dollars positions of which most were carefully eased into using algo bots not to move price away from target region? My friends, read charts. From chart, the main benefactor are likely, AUDUSD going uptrend, has broken that downtrend was waiting for stimulus to go up! EURUSD, seem to have been undergoing accumulation all this turmoil, maybe it is time to show its bullish hand. stock may range a bit, but surely it will go down! All this news is distraction majorly, not setups! CHARTS, CHARTS I chant!

Dec 1, 2018 10:00pm

Quoting dangphuoctu

Disliked

China state media says, not Trump said.

Ignored

Yes. And that’s what makes me believe it.

brr001

Dec 2, 2018 3:05am

Quoting danasa

Disliked

Who cares what this means, you do not reverse an titanic oil tanker on a dime...big buys have already sold out on stocks, and have taken heavy positions on shorts. You think silly thing like Trump-Xi weekend tea party will cause instant billions of dollars positions of which most were carefully eased into using algo bots not to move price away from target region? My friends, read charts. From chart, the main benefactor are likely, AUDUSD going uptrend, has broken that downtrend was waiting for stimulus to go up! EURUSD, seem to have been undergoing...

Ignored

LooooooL ,,, dude big boys are sitting on cash , they will raise the price so high and so quick that you won’t get a chance buy at these prices.. wait till gets to the peak

Dec 2, 2018 3:42am

Quoting danasa

Disliked

"... Trump is going to attempt to manufacture a rally in US equities back up to 2018 highs by the end of this year." Yes, he has a thing with stock market going down! He looks to want it up! But who knows his true intentions, he is a freaking billionaire, played stock market all his life, meaning he knows when the winds are changing, he knows his colleagues are heavy short. He knows supply and demand controlling the market, now supply is. Why is he fighting it up? Or is he pretending when he himself is heavy short too? All the same, any...

Ignored

Simple: There’s a hint of easing the trade war.
This means:
Lower taxes -> Higher stock construction -> Higher stock demand -> Higher stock prices -> Lower USD index (usually) -> increase of production -> Higher electricity price and higher oil price.
And this is the seldom scenario where the gold and the US dollar price go in the same direction.

I hope this helps

Dec 2, 2018 4:20am

Quoting COGSx86

Disliked

Bonds down, tariffs down = weak USD

Ignored

Master Yoda,

One clarification, whenever you say ,"Bonds are down", you are implying that the bond yields are down, correct?

Thanks

Dec 3, 2018 8:42am

Quoting COGSx86

Disliked

{quote} Yes bond yields, not futures! With China buying more US products, they need more US dollars, to get US dollars they need to deposit Yuan at the banks, banks will leverage and turn around buying more bonds, dropping bond prices putting more USD in circulation. A drop of bond prices is a increase of USD in circulation. More Usd in circulation results in a weaker UsD!

Ignored

Thanks Master Yoda,

When you get time, could you kindly clarify:

1. "banks will leverage and turn around buying more bonds, dropping bond prices"

Shouldn't more buying equate to increase in bond prices as more buying implies more demand?

2. " A drop of bond prices is a increase of USD in circulation"

How does drop in bond prices lead to increased USD circulation?

Thanks for your patience

Dec 3, 2018 8:43am

Quoting warrensapp

Disliked

{quote} {quote} I love you guys. Thank you for teaching.

Ignored

Master Yoda is most definitely a great teacher and a patient one at that.

Check out his interesting thread: FED mandate leads or lags

Thanks

COGSx86

Dec 3, 2018 9:47am

Quoting aaven

Disliked

{quote} Thanks Master Yoda, When you get time, could you kindly clarify: 1. "banks will leverage and turn around buying more bonds, dropping bond prices" Shouldn't more buying equate to increase in bond prices as more buying implies more demand? 2. " A drop of bond prices is a increase of USD in circulation" How does drop in bond prices lead to increased USD circulation? Thanks for your patience

Ignored

Bonds operate opposite to stocks. Bonds price will go up when less people are buying them. The government is trying to make the yields more appealing, by increasing the yield. When yields increase investors will be more likely to place money in bonds instead of, for example, the stock market.

Say you're starting a company and need investment capital, how would you attract investors? You would offer them a higher rate, lets say 10%. Then you start to get investors pouring in. You would then drop the rate as investors see your business as sustainable, safe and profitable. More investors come into the mix, allowing yourself to reduce the yields, you pay, so now your offering 6%.

Government operates no differently.

A drop in bond prices, means more people are buying bonds or in this case, Banks. As more banks buy bonds they then have more capital on the books (paying 1$ for 1.03$ = more money). When banks have more capital on the books, they are able to lend out more money, from forex traders, to first time home buyers. As more money is in circulation the value of that money drops.

Dec 4, 2018 4:35am

Quoting COGSx86

Disliked

{quote} Bonds operate opposite to stocks. Bonds price will go up when less people are buying them. The government is trying to make the yields more appealing, by increasing the yield. When yields increase investors will be more likely to place money in bonds instead of, for example, the stock market. Say you're starting a company and need investment capital, how would you attract investors? You would offer them a higher rate, lets say 10%. Then you start to get investors pouring in. You would then drop the rate as investors see your business as...

Ignored

Thanks Master Yoda for the quick and detailed explanation...

hkg_paul

Dec 2, 2018 6:06am

That is all human. Power speech sent the euro usdlr to 1.14 by a dovish tune. However market still cautious about December hike. He didn't say that he will stop raising.
Same as G20 Trump and Xi dinners. They only both agreed to extend the tension. It doesn't mean it will stop forever or signing anything. That is for me normal comeout, diplomatic.
If we talk about negotiantion fairly, what is fair.

kingleeny

Dec 1, 2018 8:27pm

How many times have we heard this news before. They get back to their desks talk with the other politicial members and they demand this and that and boom. Back to square one. Talking over dinner with drinks is not your political disciussion. It was I will my guys look into it. Now bottoms up.

kingleeny

Dec 2, 2018 7:33am

Do you think other countries are doing so well that they want their currencies to go higher against the USD?? For what??? more expensive for US to purchase or other countries...they all want to drop their currencies...no one is doing well and they are still trying to find a way to fix all the free money they gave away for the stimulus and they still dont know

MrAashir

Dec 2, 2018 6:11pm

Quoting Guest

Disliked

whether you are shorting the index or usd dollar or oil or vice versa, the market has done a great job in whipsawing price, info, news as well as charts misleading traders thinking they have a edge. needless to say or debate who is controlling the market. the market will takes what it needs and eventually slaughtered all longs & shorts before its started trending. those who manage to win short term (1~3yrs) will eventually lose your ac in long term (5yrs) for those positive gain over 10yrs trading congrats only a handful can do it. if trading...

Ignored

if that is the case why are you here? Everybody knows its a gamble you dont need to keep on repeating that. let people do what they want.

Dec 2, 2018 3:28am

"... Trump is going to attempt to manufacture a rally in US equities back up to 2018 highs by the end of this year." Yes, he has a thing with stock market going down! He looks to want it up! But who knows his true intentions, he is a freaking billionaire, played stock market all his life, meaning he knows when the winds are changing, he knows his colleagues are heavy short. He knows supply and demand controlling the market, now supply is. Why is he fighting it up? Or is he pretending when he himself is heavy short too? All the same, any move up will be another opportunity for big guns money to add to their short positions...

Dec 2, 2018 3:30am

And surely, my view of short ends when prices breaks above the highest Higher High, and hold, no one is a slave to analysis, you have to change when market changes, so in essence i agree with brr001 and NotATrader.
Till they reverse their positions, for now, they are heavy short..

Dec 2, 2018 4:58am

Ah...the inter-market analysis, anyway, i enjoyed your discussion, brr001 and NotATrader, let's see how it will play out, after all we are the small fishes riding on dragons' tail. We keep looking for more clues, where they fly to, we tag on! But seriously, why, do people keep believing stocks will recover? forget the SPX, DJIA, NASDAQ100, zoom into individual company charts, have you seen the carnage? Have you ever seen stock price recovered from these level of distribution carnage to continue higher, history doesn't have an example of such miracle. When i mean chart, i mean, price action & volume analysis! Price alone seems naked...NotATrader, you seem to have been long in this game, assuming you are properly experienced in profits, comment on this kind of stock recovery miracle...frankly i want another vantage point.

Fml

Dec 2, 2018 4:45am

you guys reacting to a piece from a no name source

clapping

the negotiations of any are still on going

trump didnt say anything of anything of no tariffs

pay for credible fx news sources

youll realize how much this website and counterparts are propaganda and bs

Dec 2, 2018 4:13am — Edited

Quoting 9jatrader

Disliked

If you have been trading, you would know currency is not based on only one news.

Ignored

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Dec 2, 2018 4:20am

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Dec 2, 2018 3:38am

why whining on price go up or down, just relax and watch.

Montu

Dec 2, 2018 1:49am

Now Weaker USD than Euro.

kingleeny

Dec 1, 2018 8:28pm

Remember Trump closed the deal with Kim Jung EunZ and nothing has happened since then. That contract was a baseless contract with no specific course in mind.

Wize

Dec 2, 2018 1:27am

The market will probably gap up on Monday...

Lamplighter

Dec 1, 2018 8:21pm

Optics - is to play with light. Right now we can only see 'through a glass darkly'.

sunpied

Dec 1, 2018 7:18pm

usd will be down on monday opening

Dec 1, 2018 9:58pm

See cnn bro

Dec 2, 2018 1:48am

Quoting Guest

Disliked

How much of this "good" news was priced into the dow and s&p500's late run up on Friday is debatable. But for absolute sure, Trump is going to attempt to manufacture a rally in US equities back up to 2018 highs by the end of this year. On the forex side, I'm betting on long USDZAR for the medium to long term. The reason is fundamental: do some research on SA's sole electricity supplier, ESKOM. They are in a deep financial hole and rated as junk by S&P when it comes to borrowing costs. A country doesn't run well without electricity....

Ignored

Not even a little bit...

Desert Storm

Dec 2, 2018 6:07am

Quoting NotAtrader

Disliked

{quote} I am not particularly long actually. I always hedge my positions over the weekend, but not necessarily locked. So my overall bias is a little bit bullish indeed, but my money management allows me for another 500 pips agains me. So nothing to worry about here. When that’s said I really don’t care much which way the market goes. I am the Hedge Master and the Money Machine with probably one of the best strategies available. Good luck and let’s hope there are no sudden spikes of 200 pips per candle 😉👍

Ignored

200 points up or down

Desert Storm

Dec 2, 2018 6:15am

Quoting hkg_paul

Disliked

That is all human. Power speech sent the euro usdlr to 1.14 by a dovish tune. However market still cautious about December hike. He didn't say that he will stop raising. Same as G20 Trump and Xi dinners. They only both agreed to extend the tension. It doesn't mean it will stop forever or signing anything. That is for me normal comeout, diplomatic. If we talk about negotiantion fairly, what is fair.

Ignored

Really
The previous tariffs have remained unchanged

Here is the problem and the Chinese economy is slowing down for the first time in two years

Either the solution is to postpone tariffs that have not been implemented so far

Dec 1, 2018 9:34pm

Good news for me

Dec 1, 2018 9:37pm

China state media says, not Trump said.

Trader#01CA

Dec 1, 2018 10:15pm

How much of this "good" news was priced into the dow and s&p500's late run up on Friday is debatable. But for absolute sure, Trump is going to attempt to manufacture a rally in US equities back up to 2018 highs by the end of this year.

On the forex side, I'm betting on long USDZAR for the medium to long term. The reason is fundamental: do some research on SA's sole electricity supplier, ESKOM. They are in a deep financial hole and rated as junk by S&P when it comes to borrowing costs. A country doesn't run well without electricity. Then do some research on unemployment in SA, the picture is grim. Being a member of BRICS doesn't help much.

russeloscar1

Dec 2, 2018 2:13am

Strong usd this week

Trader#507C

Dec 2, 2018 2:52am

Only good for AUD and NZD. Dollar will Go slightly down, UP before rate hike on Dec 19, down from Dec 23 till April 2019, Up slightly with next and last rate hike , then down again till end of 2019. Wait for USD to go slightly up and sell it. Eur CEntral bank will slowly increase rate and keep easy monetary policy but not as much as now, so EUR will gain a bit of strength against weaker dollar, So wait till bounce from next resistance and buy EUR after DEC 19. GBP Is a story : It will go slightly down, and extremely sharp up, The deal will go through, and GBP will go really up, England central bank expects inflation to drop, this means GBP will get stronger, Politicians have no choice other than approving the deal, no alternatives, Once approved, Central bank will announce Inflation expectations and GDP and optimistic view of the UK economy. This is the time to buy GBP, NEVER SELL GBP NOW, ITS extremely oversold, and very risky, DONT BUY GBP now, till deal is approved and we get a very strong bullish momentum. JPY will get stronger, Bank of Japan members started to raise concerns over very long too loose monetary policy and negative interest rates. JPY will get stronger, BUY JPY ( SELL USD JPY it will go to 110 SOON). BOJ has expectations to reach inflation rate of 2 withing 6 months or so, they below this now, this means JPY must get stronger for inflation to increase. Also they moved from 0 to 0.1 to 0.2 margin around yield. with inflation and their talks, JPY forsure will get stronger. JPY pairs started downtrend for long time, you may not see USDJPY at 113.5 again for a decade. Conclusions. 1. USD SELL , 2. GBP wait then BUY, 3. JPY BUY, 4. EUR wait then BUY

9jatrader

Dec 3, 2018 10:13am

Better news for AUD and NZD than any

asmadi78

Dec 2, 2018 2:02pm

USD will be safe haven currency

Spmt

Dec 2, 2018 12:25pm

EURUSD 45 pips up rit now

san99

Dec 1, 2018 8:56pm

Well it would appear that in the very short term USD longs may be squeezed out. Probably good pop up for AUD, NZD in particular

Trader#EFB6

Dec 2, 2018 1:49am

Additional 90-days of uncertainty

icog

Dec 2, 2018 3:22am

There is something else in the cnn.com report i dont see here: "In exchange, China agreed it was willing to purchase a "very substantial" amount of agriculture, energy and other goods from the United States to help reduce the trade imbalance."
Now why do you see this bullish for the AUD and NZD, as decreasing the trade deficit with one country simply means increasing the trade deficit with guess who?

brr001

Dec 2, 2018 8:56am — Edited

Quoting kingleeny

Disliked

Do you think other countries are doing so well that they want their currencies to go higher against the USD?? For what??? more expensive for US to purchase or other countries...they all want to drop their currencies...no one is doing well and they are still trying to find a way to fix all the free money they gave away for the stimulus and they still dont know

Ignored

does that mean all other currencies should continuously fall? then why it doesn't just make a snap fall to wherever it has to get to and get it done with it ? Look at NZDUSD, it fell from grace and then went up so high for no reason ? This kind of argument is a desperate call... doesn't make sense at all ... currencies will fluctuate, there are short term cycles and long term cycles, it can have a short bullish cycle going against the fundamentals, even though major trend is still in the bearish trend... EURUSD and GBPUSD on Monthly, they are still in bearish Tranjectile...but they can go up for a couple of months.... There is a difference between Margin based position, and Zero Margin based position, if you are holding hard currency with no leverage, then there is no reason to hold them, yes, then your argument is right, but .. if you are trading based on leverage, then a small fluctuation can impact your position, in which case, you are benefitting from small volatility....so, please place your argument respectively...its an Arbitrage game, in leveraged trading, you are arbitrage trading based on inefficiencies in smaller time frame, thats all, nothing to do with long term fundamentals.....for example, one of the inefficient is as sentiment by retail traders versus the institution, you identify those inefficiencies via over bought and oversold areas relatively to the speed of price action, followed by institutional distribution or accumulation...another inefficiency is gapping up or down, here, institutions are over riding the retailers so that retailers will not be able to buy or sell within a range of price, so that institutions can dump those instrument later to retailers at much more favorable price...there are many other techniques you can spot these inefficiencies.

kongrit1416

Dec 1, 2018 7:40pm

good news for usd , aud ....

OmarNAMOUCHI

Dec 2, 2018 3:46am

Bad news for the US dollar buyers

Trader#876B

Dec 1, 2018 8:49pm

Much as I hate to agree with "kingleeny" he has valid point. Other than "No tariffs Jan" detail are sketchy at best. We might see knee-jerk USD selling at Asia opening... but i don't think we see much follow through USD sell off.

brr001

Dec 2, 2018 4:14am

In every Party there is a Party Pooper !!

Trader#0A86

Dec 2, 2018 8:33am

whether you are shorting the index or usd dollar or oil or vice versa, the market has done a great job in whipsawing price, info, news as well as charts misleading traders thinking they have a edge.

needless to say or debate who is controlling the market. the market will takes what it needs and eventually slaughtered all longs & shorts before its started trending.

those who manage to win short term (1~3yrs) will eventually lose your ac in long term (5yrs) for those positive gain over 10yrs trading congrats only a handful can do it.

if trading to win is so easy everyone doing it is a millionaire already. Either you join the slaughter house, or get slaughtered eventually.

hard truths, save your money and start something u like, u have higher chance of making rather then in this market. even if u dont make much, aleast u are doing something u like.

Trader#E76C

Dec 2, 2018 12:45pm

Quoting brr001

Disliked

{quote} LooooooL ,,, dude big boys are sitting on cash , they will raise the price so high and so quick that you won’t get a chance buy at these prices.. wait till gets to the peak

Ignored

So who will they sell to once they raise the price so quickly and to such high levels that the 'small boys' lost the chance to buy in on?

MastaJay77

Dec 2, 2018 2:12pm

usd weaken or strengthen because of this news?

Trader#A5F2

Dec 2, 2018 10:21pm

Quoting COGSx86

Disliked

{quote} Yes bond yields, not futures! With China buying more US products, they need more US dollars, to get US dollars they need to deposit Yuan at the banks, banks will leverage and turn around buying more bonds, dropping bond prices putting more USD in circulation. A drop of bond prices is a increase of USD in circulation. More Usd in circulation results in a weaker UsD!

Ignored

Are "the banks" chinese banks? If yes, what currency can chinese banks use to buy US bonds? And will more buys of US bonds (more demands) drive yields price down?

Trader#852E

Dec 2, 2018 2:12am