Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

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4. Mar 13, 2018 5:27am

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,078 Posts | Online Now

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1520933253


You can see by the way that I arranged all of the Currency pairs and CFD's that all through your Forex trading day you can see how the movements of the Asset Classes have a cause and effect on each other. That is why I call my UNIQUE method of trading Forex Money Flow Trading Method.

Please post your questions here so that we can continue to learn and improve our Forex trading.

https://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx

https://www.finviz.com/news.ashx?v=2

For the moment we have RISK ON as you can see from the 5 Minute FINVIZ chart on US 30.

https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5




Benjaminis

1. Post 4,003
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4. Sep 9, 2017 9:21am

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,079 Posts | Online Now

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: So two things about the above post.

One, it is no longer possible to trade without a STOP LOSS PERIOD.

Two, having a STOP LOSS less than 100 PIPS is not a good strategy. That leads me to explain why most of the 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose. They trade with small amounts of money and SCALP which makes it almost impossible to make profits over a period of one year because of the VIOLENT NATURE of the swings in the Asset Classes caused by world changing events.

Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars INITIALLY learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account just as I did for a period of three years before I made my first Real Funds Trade.

PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.

Without your WORK then you are just wasting your time and probably your money.

There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge ALL FOR FREE until May 31, 2017 and then if you have subscribed to this thread before May 31, 2017, then you will get a FREE LIFETIME PASS to our company website.

SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.

20% of the SUCCESS is yourself the Forex Trader.

20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE which we teach you and that is Money Flow Trading.

20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard earned money) Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear and greed. Of course we want to make sure that you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader so our course is for a period of three months, so we can teach you the right trading methods and we can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.


20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators which include not only the common ones. It includes the understanding of Supply and Demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points which you can see each day on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans which we also help you develop and explain WHY. These are our Winning Trade Plans that we review every three months or earlier if circumstances in the markets require that.

20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than Data Releases each day around the world. It includes reports and articles extremely well researched as you can clearly see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets especially in North America is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you then have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and you are not surprised when events eventually unfold.

When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't trading, they're staring at screens and forcing trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.

What makes a trader successful is discipline: doing the right thing with fidelity. What keeps a trader successful is innovation: doing new things and turning them into disciplines.

In order to be able to help you better it is VERY IMPORTANT that you share your thoughts and your QUESTIONS here on our thread.


Benjaminis

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ops+to+zero%29

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...?itok=LY4e264-
by Tyler Durden


Mon, 12/03/2018 - 12:02



While not the media and academia's preferred tracker of looming recessions, the front-end of the Treasury curve has now inverted...
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...03_8-55-24.jpg

https://static.apester.com/js/assets/loader_100x100.gif
...for the first time since June 2007.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...03_8-59-27.jpg



All of this got Bloomberg's Cameron Crise wondering what is the typical Fed policy move is in the year after 2s-5s inverts?
It turns out that there is some precedent for further tightening, but only by a maximum of 100 bps...a pretty modest pace by the standards of history.
More to the point, since 1985 the Fed funds rate has never risen (on a 1-year forward time horizon) when 2s-5s was inverted by more than 12 bps. Clearly we are some way from that, but it's going to be hard to argue from an historical perspective that the apparently inevitable front-belly inversion won't in some way mark the beginning of the end of the Fed policy cycle.

Yields remain very modestly higher on the day but are sliding rapidly from overnight highs...
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...03_9-06-34.jpg
And converging...
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...03_9-03-10.jpg


https://c5x8i7c7.ssl.hwcdn.net/creat.../dslogo_sm.png
Additionally 2s5s is back below 1bps...
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...03_8-56-11.jpg
And Breakevens are collapsing...
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...03_9-01-21.jpg


And as we laid out in great detail before, this is a big deal.
As JPM's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote, an inversion at the front end of the US curve is a significant market development, not least because it occurs rather rarely, and has happened only three times over the past two decades: in 2005, 2000 and 1998 - all periods in time preceding major market busts.
While redundant, JPM explained that "such inversion is also generally perceived as a bad omen for risky markets" and highlighted that the two potential explanations are either markets pricing in a Fed policy mistake, or pricing in end-of-cycle dynamics.
Fast forward to today, when 8 months later, Panigirtzoglou writes in his latest Flows and Liquidity commentary that since then, not only has this inversion worsened, but it has shifted forward, and since the middle of November, the forward curve is inverted between the 1-year and the 2-year forward points.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...OIS%202Y1Y.jpg


This shift forward in Fed policy reversal expectations is in line with historical experience. As JPM wrote back in April, the 3y-2y forward rate spread had historically led the 2y-1y one, and this has now occurred since mid-November.

What does this mean in practical terms? Simple: the latest curve inversion implies that markets are now pricing in a peak in the Fed policy rate in end-2019 rather than during 2020 previously. JPMorgan shows this in Figure 2, which depicts the forward curve of the 1-month dollar OIS curve currently vs. its snapshot at the beginning of October before the equity market correction.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...201M%20OIS.jpg


Not only has the market-implied path of policy rate expectations shifted downward in the aftermath of the equity market correction, but the whole curve has shifted forward. And this week’s comments by the Fed Chairman appear to have reinforced these policy reversal expectations with the 2y-1y forward rate spread inverting further to below -3 basis points.


Of course, as we discussed extensively in April, such pronounced shifts forward in Fed policy rate reversal expectations has also traditionally been associated with end-phases of the US monetary policy cycle. In the 2000 monetary policy cycle, the 3y-2y forward rate spread of the 1-month OIS rate turned negative in February 2000. And as JPMorgan adds, the 2y-1y forward rate spread turned negative four months later in June 2000. The Fed delivered the last hike in May 2000.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...20US%20OIS.jpg


In other words, from a timing point of view, the last hike of the Fed at the time almost coincided with the inversion of the 2y-1y rate forward spread. Incidentally that also marked the bursting of the dot com bubble, as the US equity market had started declining at roughly the same time in June 2000. The subsequent equity market correction induced the Fed to start cutting rates in 2001.


Fast forward to the next rate hike cycle, when in the 2006 monetary policy cycle, the 3y-2y rate forward spread of the 1-month OIS rate turned negative rather early in August 2005. The 2y-1y forward spread turned negative ten months after in June 2006. Similar to the 2000 cycle, the last hike of the Fed at the time in June 2006 coincided with the inversion of the 2y-1y forward rate spread. There was one material diference to the 2000 cycle: the equity market had started declining much later in October 2007 when the Fed started cutting rates.


Rather concerningly, here JPM notes that although it is still early to draw conclusions, the lags from the 3y-2y inversion to the 2y-1y inversion and the September peak in the US equity market appear more consistent with the 2000 rather than the 2006 cycle.
Now as readers may recall, when the 3y-2y forward spread inversion first emerged last April, JPM argued that an inversion at the front end of the US curve "was a bad omen for risky markets."


So, perhaps not unexpectedly, the ensuing 2y-1y inversion and shift forward in Fed policy rate reversal expectations is, according to JPMorgan, "worsening this bad omen."

Why? Because in even more bad news for the BTFD crew, the lesson from the previous US monetary policy cycles is that a sustained recovery in equity and risky markets has tended to occur only after the inversion disappears and the front end of the US curve, in particular the 2y-1y forward rate spread, resteepens.

Good Morning Forex Trader's

As I stated yesterday in my target goal of $10,000 US Dollars profit by December 31, 2018 or before , I have done my first Forex trade for today. I have shorted 50 units of US 30 (Dow 30) at 25,740. I risked capital of $3375.00 US Dollars. The trade was put on at 9:35 AM this morning. I put a limit out of $500.00 US Dollars or 1% of my trading capital of $50,000 US Dollars. You can see that by my screenshot.

The time is now 9:57 AM.

I will update shortly.

Please watch me REACH my GOAL as this method of Forex trading works because the Forex Trader is properly trained.

Good Morning again.

My work is done for the day.

As you can see I have reached my goal for today in just 17 minutes. I have no need to trade again today since my profit is now locked in and my daily goal has been reached. We call that DISCIPLINE. I shorted at 25,740.00 and covered my short at 25,639.30

My Net Profit is $503.50

I will post later today and be available for any questions that you may have.


Benjaminis

We can see from my screenshot that the Dow has gone down at one time today over 800 Points. There was little doubt about the direction after I took profits on my one Forex trade today. I normally put in my Limit Out $250 US Dollars as it moves down so that I can get maximum profit. Today since it was my only Forex trade for today I just let it take me out at $503.50 US Dollars profit. I will bring more posts forward to explain my Risk Management Strategy and my Trading plan strategy.

At the moment I have 5 Trading Plans in place.

(1) Short US30 (Dow 30)
(2) Short SPX500
(3) Short USD/JPY (Correlation Trade)
(4) Long Silver
(5) Long Gold

I will get into more details as I update the previous pages.

1. Dec 12, 2016 8:57am

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,084 Posts | Online Now

Now back to the Eurozone and the probable eventual break up which will be called Italyexit !!!

https://mishtalk.com/2016/12/12/euro...ny/#more-42750

Snippet:
The eurozone cannot survive without Italy. The serious problem at the moment is the Eurozone also cannot survive with Italy.

Two of Italy’s three largest parties are anti-Euro. The only party in Italy that does support the euro is ex-prime minister Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party. And with Renzi gone, there’s a huge risk the party splinters.

Regardless, there are no likely scenarios that can keep things from flying apart according Wolfgang Münchau. I believe his analysis is solid.
https://mishgea.files.wordpress.com/...ng?w=529&h=380
Münchau makes a detailed case why the eurozone is doomed in Italy Poses a Huge Threat to the Euro and Union.
He lists five ways the Eurozone can stay intact. However, none of them stands up to close scrutiny.

 

1. Italy and Germany could converge. To do this, Italy would need to undertake economic reforms to clean up the justice system and the public administration, cut taxes and invest in productivity-increasing technologies. Germany would need to run a higher fiscal deficit.
2. The northern European states accept large fiscal transfers to the south.
3. The EU creates a federal political authority with powers to raise taxes in order to transfer income from high to low-income earners.
4. The ECB finds a way to bankroll Italian public and private debt indefinitely.
5. Italy’s government will forever continue to support euro membership.

“Only one of those five conditions may be sufficient for Italy to remain a member of the euro. The problem is that each one is extremely improbable. And I cannot think of a sixth one,” says Münchau.
However, the consensus opinion is that Italy will not leave the Eurozone because the deck is stacked against that event.
The Italy won’t leave rationale looks like this:

1. The Five Star Movement (M5S) would have to get into power, but the new technocrat government’s first mission is to rig the rules so that does not happen.
2. Even if M5S wins the lower parliament, it still may not control the senate.
3. Even if M5S takes complete control of parliament, it would have to change the constitution.
4. Changing the constitution without a super majority would require a vote.

The problem with the above thesis is there is only one party that wants to keep the Euro and coalitions will form if for no other reason than people are fed up.

Comments from Benjaminis: We live in interesting times and the FUTURE is unknown and markets hate uncertainty.

I started off my morning thoughts by using the word - DISCIPLINE. That is one of the keys to being a winning Forex Currency Trader.

You can be an expert in technical analysis and understand about supply and demand and even know about the fundamentals as everyone can see by reading all my information sources that I have. However the KEY to my success is DISCIPLINE. We all like to make trades however the whole point of trading Forex is to MAKE MONEY !!!

By trading a $50,000 US Funds Demo account which is what I did for 3 years before I ever made one real trade I was able to learn my trade without worrying about losing money and also by learning about using technical indicators and fundamentals. Once I knew that I was ready I went out and found 6 clients and they deposited with Trade Freedom my first currency house using the Saxo Platform that I use in my first three years of Demo Trading along with also using the platform from FXCM.

I only stayed with Trade Freedom for three months and switched over to Refco a much larger currency house. In all the time that I traded at Trade Freedom managing over $100,000 US for my 6 clients I actually NEVER had one trading loss. That of course was excellent and while I had NO Fear or Greed one thing that I did have for sure was EGO !!!

When I moved my Forex accounts over to Refco actually called Man Financial in Canada , I had over 6 clients then and under LPOA (Limited Power of Attorney) I had close to $200,000 under my management. One of my friends whose account I was managing asked me if I ever expected to lose a Forex Trade and I told him of course. Then I learned and had the DISCIPLINE to make the MOST IMPORTANT DECISION of my early Forex Currency Trading career.

I decided to close a position and I took an actual loss of $100 US. That was when my EGO high as it was at the time decided COMMON SENSE which is not so common needed to take the SMALL LOSS of $100 US.

I am sure many Forex Traders of any experience whether newbie or veteran understand this.

That is when I decided that the next part of my education needed to move over to Risk Management. I have developed a SUPERIOR RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM as my results show.

Now we turn to today. I already have profits in a number of my open positions and I must decide before 2 PM if I leave them open or close some of them. With that as my morning thought I wish everyone a good trading day and again ask for 3 more Forex Traders that would like to become WINNERS trading if you have the DISCIPLINE to trade properly controlling your FEAR , GREED and as I just explained your EGO.







Notes:
"THIS IS A DEMO ACCOUNT WHICH IS TRADED WITH VIRTUAL FUNDS. NO REAL MONEY IS USED IN TRADING THIS ACCOUNT. Demo accounts are used primarily for education purposes, testing of strategies, and familiarizing traders with market movement and the FX Trading Station. There are inherent risks associated with online trading that may arise due to downtime, currency fluctuation and other risks associated with currency speculation. Only risk capital should be used when trading a real account."

1. Post 136
2. Cleanup
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4. Dec 14, 2016 1:40pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,086 Posts | Online Now

http://us8.campaign-archive2.com/?u=...d&e=d2196b0e48

Snippet:
Words Matter

December 14, 2016
Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D
Vice Chairman and Chief Monetary Economist



The FOMC has both experimented and struggled with its communications policy since it first began announcing its decisions in 1994. It has established numerous subcommittees to review its communications and make recommended changes, beginning with the subcommittee chaired by then-Vice-Chair Roger Ferguson. During and in the aftermath of the financial crisis, communications became a central tool of policy making.


The Committee has sought to use both its statements and its press conferences to provide forward guidance to markets as a way to affect behavior and market expectations. The process has met with mixed success, in part because the message keeps changing. Witness the evolution of the FOMC’s statements in 2009. In January the Committee began to provide some forward guidance when it indicated that it expected to keep rates low “for some time.” In March the committee tweaked the wording to read “extended period.” That wording persisted until the Committee’s August 2011 statement, when it modified the language to provide a more specific time period, indicating that it expected rates to remain low “at least through mid-2013.” This wording didn’t remain in place for long: It was changed in January 2012 to read “at least through late 2014,” and was extended to “through mid-2015” in August 2012.

In its December 2012 statement the Committee abandoned its date-specific guidance and substituted specific unemployment and inflation objectives in its place. The Committee stated that it intended to keep rates low “as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored.” However, unemployment promptly dropped below 6.5% in April 2014, though inflation remained well below the 2% objective for the PCE. So the Committee promptly dropped the unemployment objective in its April 2014 statement and tied the duration of its low-rate policy to the ending of its asset purchase program and inflation objective, stating that it would keep rates low “for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.” The Committee finally gave up on providing meaningful forward guidance in January 2015, resorting to a statement that could be distilled into two words, indicating that policy would be “data dependent.”

The Committee’s lack of success in crafting a durable forward-guidance communications policy that it was both willing and able to stand by and deliver on credibly gives credence to the argument that former Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser has made on numerous occasions. That is, the FOMC has repeatedly opted to retain its discretion to act rather than committing to a future path and credibly delivering on that commitment. The theoretical literature concerning the efficacy of forward guidance has established that it requires both commitment and delivery, but in reality policy makers are understandably reluctant to stay the course when underlying facts change and forecasts are not realized. This is a case where, when theory breaks down in the face of reality, something is wrong with the theory.

Not only has the FOMC had a problem with implementation of forward guidance, it has also compounded its communications problems by using code words that lack both well-understood definitions and consistency. Jeffrey Sparshott has addressed two critically important words, modest and moderate, typically used by the FOMC in one of its opening sentences to describe the performance of the economy1. He looked at the period from January 2011 to July 2013 and concluded that moderate suggested that the economy was expanding at about a 2% pace, whilemodest was meant to suggest a pace somewhat below that. Expanding the time period from 2010 through the FOMC’s last statement in November 2016 can help shed some light on how the use of the term moderateconveys almost no useful information about how the FOMC actually sees the economy progressing. The FOMC has used the word moderate to describe the pace of economic activity about 26 times from 2010 through the present. Using the real-time estimate of real GDP growth available to the FOMC at each of its meetings, the mean GDP annualized growth for the period was 2.03%, but the standard deviation was 1.12 percentage points, suggesting that there was no consistency in how the FOMC viewed the expansion. The time pattern of the use of the word is better viewed in the context of the time pattern of FOMC decisions, shown in the figure below. It plots real GDP growth at each meeting, with the times the word moderate was used to describe growth highlighted in red.
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/d6f020...fddc84d327.png

The Committee used the word for the first time in April 2011, when growth was 2.8%, and again in June 2011, when growth was 1.8% for Q1 2011. Interestingly, growth for Q2 2011, which again was 1.8%, was described in the Committee’s June statement as considerably slower than the Committee expected. In this message, the Committee shifted from describing the expansion to describing how it compared to what the Committee had expected. Oddly, in September 2011, when growth was 1.3%, the Committee stated that the pace had slowed, but when it looked at the identical number, 1.3%, for Q3 2011, the Committee stated that growth had strengthened somewhat. Even more contradictory was the Committee’s characterization of growth in its 2013 March and May statements. Growth of 0.1% for both Q4 2012 and Q1 2013 was described as moderate, followed by moderate characterizations of growth that was well in excess of 2.5% at each of its next four meetings. Following its December 2013 statement in which it characterized the 3.6% increase in real GDP as moderate, the Committee described the 4.1% increase in GDP it had before it in Jan 2014 as having “picked up.” Here the Committee switched from describing GDP growth to comparing it with the previous quarter (ie. the second derivative).

What we can observe is both lack of precision with how it describes the pace of economic activity in its statements and sometimes comparing growth to previous periods or to Committee expectations. The FOMC would help its readers if it sought to provide consistent and rather tight relationships between the statistics it describes and the words it uses. We can’t shed much light on what the wordmodest might mean, since it has been used only three times –in July 2013 when growth was 2.4% and in September and November of 2016 when GDP growth was 1.1% for Q2 2016 and 2.9% for Q3 2016.

The FOMC’s December statement will be carefully parsed, especially since it will likely announce a rate increase and feature words describing the future path of policy. Until the FOMC cleans up its rhetoric, however, its linguistic efforts are not likely to prove helpful.
______________________
1. See Jeffrey Sparshott, “Fedspeak: What’s the Difference Between ‘Modest’ and ‘Moderate’?” Real Time Economics, Aug 1, 2013.

1. Post 169
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3. Quote
4. Dec 16, 2016 9:09am

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,087 Posts | Online Now

Quoting dttsomh
Would Gold be a good long-term speculation for 2017? When every major currency seems to be doomed, major investors should move their assets in gold? If that's so, it's strange that gold slides to 10month low.
Please let me explain to you and others why Gold is going down now.

First of all there is the paper market for Gold which is COMEX. The price of Gold has been set there and that is not where the real price shows since it is a manipulated market. See WWW.GATA.ORG for information on this.

http://www.gata.org/node/17024

Also because short term the US Dollar Index is so high it has an effect on the price of Gold.

GOLD is the enemy of the Central Banks as to keeping the fraud going concerning Fiat Currencies. Gold is no persons debt. Gold is a currency and a medium of exchange as is Silver.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gol...teid=rss&rss=1

Snippet:
Inflationary policies in the U.S. and China ought to stoke demand
By
HENRYTO
http://ei.marketwatch.com//Multimedi...1-c3a5a0557ba0AFP/Getty Images
Road to riches: A child walks on a path built over gold ingots in a shopping mall in Yichang, in central China's Hubei province.

NEWPORT BEACH, Calif. (Trader Planet) — Around this time last year I wrote “Three stocks with the most turnaround potential in 2016,” laying out my theses for beaten-down companies that would outperform the benchmark S&P 500 IndexSPX, +0.39% in the subsequent 12 months.
The three stocks I discussed were: Coach COH, -3.66% Urban OutfittersURBN, -3.22% and Stillwater Mining SWC, -0.18% They’re up 21%, 42% and 99%, respectively, so far this year.

Every day I run a screen to find beleaguered stocks that I believe could outperform the market over the next 12 months. My own 20 years of trading experience tells me that buying a stock whose price has been falling is akin to “catching a falling knife,” as momentum tends to be a consistent factor that has outperformed value-based and passive strategies.



Moreover, the empirical evidence shows that negative price momentum in stocks has more persistence than positive momentum. This means a short-selling strategy based on shorting stocks that have gone down the most (hedged with a long position in the S&P 500) tend to outperform a (hedged) strategy focused on buying stocks that have gone up the most.
Such momentum biases, however, tend to last for only 12 months or so, as the empirical evidence also shows the existence of a reversal effect after three to five years. This means one could outperform the market by buying beaten-down stocks that have consistently underperformed the market over the past three to five years.

With U.S. stock valuations now at their highest level since the technology bubble, I believe the S&P 500 will be little changed or even fall next year. As such, I don’t have a particularly strong conviction on picking any turnaround U.S. stocks.

In lieu of a stock pick, my candidate for the investment with the most turnaround potential in 2017 is gold. Using the SPDR Gold Trust ETF GLD, -1.37% as a proxy, we can see that gold is up 7% this year. However, the yellow metal has fallen an annualized 3% and 7% over the past three and five years, respectively. After enduring a bear market since peaking at around $1,900 an ounce in September 2011, I believe gold bottomed at $1,050 an ounce in December 2015 and is now in a sustained uptrend. Here are three reasons why I like gold at the current price of $1,150 an ounce.

1. Inflationary U.S. and Chinese policies will result in speculative fund flows into gold.
President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to cut taxes is estimated to add $7.2 trillion to the federal debt in the first decade and as much as $20.9 trillion by 2036, on top of the $19 trillion outstanding today. Even in the absence of such additional spending (Congress has never been able to implement a “revenue-neutral” tax cut in the modern era), the U.S. federal debt is still expected to increase from 77% of U.S. GDP at year-end 2016 to 86%, or about $23 trillion, over the next decade, driven by entitlement spending such as Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid. Higher fiscal spending amid a tight labor market and rising wages invariably leads to higher inflation.

Similarly, the ongoing fiscal stimulus and a surging housing market has led to significant credit creation in China. The most recent surge in housing prices began in April 2015 as Chinese stock prices were tracing out a peak; a similar peak is being traced out in the Chinese housing market today as regulators institute macroprudential policies to prick the Chinese housing bubble. Chinese speculators are now turning to the commodities market to hedge the depreciation in their Chinese yuan-denominated assets. Over the past three months, zinc and copper prices, for example, have risen by 20% and 25%, respectively, driven by Chinese buying. Finally, gold futures turnover in China has risen to about 25% of that on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, suggesting that precious metals pricing power is increasingly shifting to Chinese hedge funds and traders.

2. Chinese and Indian jewelry demand will recover in 2017.
According to the World Gold Council, global jewelry demand, which makes up half of annual gold demand, was down 21% year-over-year in the third quarter. This was driven by an unprecedented decline in jewelry demand in the world’s two largest markets, China and India (which collectively account for 60% of global jewelry demand), where jewelry consumption was down 27% and 41%, respectively, year-over-year. Jewelry demand is expected to hit a seven-year low in China, and a 13-year low in India.

This year’s unprecedented weakness of the Chinese and Indian jewelry markets was due to a confluence of factors that will not repeat themselves in 2017. These include: 1. a loss of Chinese consumer confidence; 2. Chinese gold import curbs designed to restrict capital flight; 3. a tax hike on Indian gold imports earlier this year; 4. a cash crisis in India as the country’s government outlawed the use of large-denomination notes. With the recent correction in gold prices, I expect both Chinese and Indian consumers to step up their jewelry purchases in 2017. Already, a large Hong Kong-based retailer, Wo Shing Goldsmith, is reporting a 20%-25% rise in gold jewelry sales over the past month.

3. Speculative inflows into the SPDR Gold Trust GLD, -1.37% have capitulated, suggesting a good entry point.
In the month leading into, and in the immediate aftermath, of the June 23 Brexit vote, the SPDR Gold Trust’s holdings increased by 3.7 million ounces, or 13%, to a total of 31.6 million ounces, as retail investors scrambled into gold over fears of a potential breakup of the European Union. Since then, the ETF’s holdings have declined by 4.1 million ounces to a total of 27.5 million ounces, a seven-month low. This means much of the Brexit-related “hot money” has gotten out and capitulated on gold. From a contrarian and trading standpoint, today’s price of $1,150 an ounce is thus a good entry point.

Henry To, CFA, CAIA, FRM, is partner and chief investment officer at CB Capital Partners. He and the firm currently hold shares in GLD. Established in 2001, CB Capital Partners is a global financial advisory and investment firm headquartered in Newport Beach, California, with offices in Dallas and Shanghai. Follow To @HenryKTo.

1. Dec 17, 2016 2:41pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,088 Posts | Online Now

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/ra...erinvestment-3

Snippet:
Exactly a year ago, the FOMC staked its zero-interest-rate policy with its first rate hike in 9.5 years. Gold-futures speculators panicked, blasting it to a dismal 6.1-year secular low the next day. The dot plot the Fed released at that initial hike forecast four rate hikes in 2016. How many did we actually see? One! The FOMC is bold and hawkish when stock markets are high, but quickly capitulates when stocks sell off.

Since futures speculators were so terrified of Fed rate hikes a year ago, I researched the entire modern history of gold’s performances in the exact spans of Fed-rate-hike cycles. Gold actually thrives during rate-hike cycles. Before this current one there had been 11 since 1971. Gold’s average gain through all of them was 26.9%, nearly an order of magnitude greater than the S&P 500’s 2.8% average gain in all of them!

In the majority 6 of these 11 where gold actually rallied, its average gain was a staggering 61.0%! In the other 5 in which it lost ground, gold’s average loss was an asymmetrically-small 13.9%. Gold fared best when it entered Fed-rate-hike cycles low in secular terms and they were gradual. Today’s started with gold at major secular lows, and there’s never been a more-gradual rate-hike cycle at one hike per year.

So it’s dumbfounding that gold-futures speculators so fear Fed rate hikes. Have they no history books? You’d think they could at least look to the last cycle. Between June 2004 to June 2006, the FOMC more than quintupled the federal-funds rate to 5.25% through 17 consecutive rate hikes totaling 425 basis points. Did that slay gold? Not so you’d notice. This metal powered 49.6% higher over that exact span!

Even if the Fed does hike three times next year, historically Fed-rate-hike cycles have been very bullish for gold. But just like this year, the Fed won’t hike so aggressively. As these euphoric wildly-overvalued stock markets roll over into an inevitable major selloff, the Fed will again scale back its future federal-funds-rate forecasts so aggressively traders’ heads will spin. This pattern has been recurring for years now.

While the gold focus this week is the more-hawkish-than-expected Fed, the real issue is the stunning post-election stock-market rally. Gold was faring well right up to election night, surging as high as $1337 as Trump’s odds of winning mounted! But when stock traders’ sentiment turned on a dime and decided that Trump was bullish instead of bearish for stocks, gold selling snowballed as stocks surged higher.

Gold has always been the anti-stock trade, as it is a rare asset that moves counter to stock markets. Thus gold investment demand for prudent portfolio diversification surges when stock markets suffer material selloffs, and wanes when stock-market highs breed great complacency. This has led the two dominant groups of gold traders, gold-futures speculators and gold-ETF investors, to dump gold with a vengeance.

Last week I dug into the extreme gold-futures selling seen since the election, which is slowly exhausting itself despite this week’s hawkish-Fed flare-up. So this week I’m going to focus on the extreme selling in gold-ETF shares seen since the election. The world-leading and globally-dominant gold ETF remains the venerable American GLD SPDR Gold Shares. GLD capital flows are absolutely essential for gold’s outlook.

This first chart superimposes GLD’s physical gold-bullion holdings held in trust for its shareholders on the gold price. GLD reports its holdings daily, in extensive detail down to individual gold-bar weights and serial numbers. GLD acts as a direct conduit for the vast pools of stock-market capital to flow into and out of physical gold bullion. Nothing was more important for gold in 2016 than capital flowing through GLD!

http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...on121616-1.gif

Leading into last December’s first Fed rate hike in nearly a decade, stock investors liquidated their gold exposure via GLD shares as evidenced by falling holdings. GLD is a tracking ETF, designed to mirror the gold price. Since GLD-share supply and demand is totally independent from gold’s own, the only way GLD can accomplish its mission is if excess GLD-share supply or demand can be shunted into gold itself.

When stock investors are selling GLD shares faster than gold is being sold, this ETF’s price threatens to decouple to the downside. This happened in Q4’15 leading into that initial hike, and at a much-larger scale in Q4’16 on that stunning post-election stock-market surge. In order to keep GLD’s share price tracking gold in this differential-selling scenario, this ETF’s managers have to quickly absorb the excess supply.

So they buy back enough GLD shares to keep GLD’s price mirroring gold’s. The capital that’s necessary to fund these purchases is raised each day by liquidating some of GLD’s gold-bullion holdings. That is real physical gold that hits the global markets, pushing gold lower. So stock-market capital flowing out of gold as evidenced by GLD-holdings draws spews bullion into world markets, exacerbating gold selloffs.

As of this week’s Fed Day, gold has plunged 13.3% so far in Q4. That’s definitely among gold’s worst quarterly performances ever, though far short of Q2’13’s devastating all-time-record 22.8% plummet. This post-election drop is the result of a combination of extreme gold-futures selling and extreme GLD-share differential selling. GLD shares have been dumped so aggressively that it’s vomiting vast amounts of gold.

Quarter-to-date, the total GLD draws necessary to buy back all these excess shares are running way up at a staggering 98.5 metric tons! That’s an enormous amount of gold, far too much for markets to absorb in such a short span of time. Rather interestingly, this massive GLD draw is running 2.2x that seen a year ago in Q4’15. Gold’s quarter-to-date drop is running a roughly-proportional 2.7x greater than Q4’15’s.

For two years now, and especially in 2016, gold’s price has closely tracked GLD’s holdings. For nearly all of 2015, GLD suffered ongoing draws as stock investors forsook gold diversification to chase levitating stock markets. Gold’s major 6.1-year secular low the day after last December’s Fed rate hike happened on the very day GLD’s holdings finally bottomed at a 7.3-year secular low of their own. That’s no coincidence!

From those deep lows where gold was universally despised, just like today, this metal would soon rocket 29.9% higher in essentially the first half of 2016. Why? The stock markets finally started to roll over on the Fed’s hawkishness, leading investors to once again seek some prudent portfolio diversification with gold. But most of that stock-market selling after the Fed’s first rate hike was delayed until the new year.

When stock markets rally considerably in any given year, investors with big capital gains often delay any selling until January of the subsequent year. That pushes their capital-gains tax liabilities another full year into the future. And the incentives to hold until January are far greater this year than most, since 2017 may see lower tax rates thanks to Trump. So there’s a big risk of pent-up stock selling exploding next month.

Last January as stock markets fell into their worst correction since mid-2011, a 13.3% S&P 500 selloff, gold investment demand via GLD shares soared. In Q1’16, GLD’s holdings rocketed 176.9t higher. Later the World Gold Council, the definitive arbiter of global gold supply-and-demand fundamentals, declared total world gold demand grew by 219.4t year-over-year. GLD’s holdings build alone accounted for 80.6% of that!

So without American stock investors flooding into GLD shares to modestly diversify their portfolios as the stock markets sold off, gold’s young new bull this year never would’ve happened. Unbelievably GLD’s dominance grew even greater in Q2’16. GLD’s holdings jumped massively again, soaring by 130.8t that quarter. The WGC reported that total global gold demand grew 139.8t YoY, pegging GLD’s contribution at 93.6%!

The dominant reason gold’s bull stalled in Q3’16 is because the shocking new stock-market highs in the wake of late June’s Brexit-vote surprise killed gold investment demand from American stock investors. So GLD’s enormous holdings builds in the first half of 2016 withered to a trivial 2.1t draw. Without that key differential GLD-share buying that had overwhelmingly driven gold’s bull, this metal couldn’t keep climbing.

In Q1, Q2, and Q3 this year, gold’s performances ran +16.1%, +7.4%, and -0.4%. These are remarkably proportional to GLD’s quarterly builds of 176.9t, 130.8t, and -2.1t. Given that precedent, it shouldn’t be surprising that Q4’s massive 98.5t GLD draw so far has resulted in a 13.3% gold plunge. The pain that spawned for contrarian investors and speculators has been immense, fueling extreme gold bearishness.

Every indication before the election was that a surprise Trump win would trigger a major stock-market selloff and thus a major gold rally. So the resulting carnage has been brutal, hammering gold, silver, and their miners’ stocks down through stop losses. The psychological damage suffered by contrarians in one of gold’s worst quarters ever is huge. I’m not cavalier about it after drinking from this bitter cup too.

But speculation and investing aren’t about the past, which can’t be undone. The greatest mistake made by most traders is to extrapolate current trends out into the future indefinitely. This is especially true when markets trade at extremes, like the stock markets and gold today. If you’d been 100% in cash through all of Q4, and thus had no emotional attachment, would it make more sense today to buy stocks high or buy gold low?

The horrendous gold psychology this December feels exactly like it did a year ago. The euphoric stock traders had just shrugged off the first Fed rate hike in nearly a decade, while gold traders panicked on it. Yet from the very week of that rate hike, gold would surge nearly 30% higher in the next half-year while the S&P 500 merely climbed 4.3%. The leading gold-mining stocks would nearly triple over that same span!

The entire trader community is making the same foolish linear assumptions today that it made a year ago. Traders again expect stock markets to miraculously keep surging from wildly-overvalued levels without any material selloffs, and for gold to keep spiraling lower. This universal belief has led to radical gold underinvestment. With stock markets far riskier, this is even more bullish for gold today than a year ago.

This last chart looks at a proxy for gold investment by American stock investors, the guys responsible for the lion’s share of 2016’s gold bull. It compares the total value of GLD’s gold-bullion holdings with the collective market capitalization of all 500 elite S&P 500 stocks. Dividing these numbers and charting the results over time reveals when gold is really in favor or out of favor, great times to sell high or buy low respectively.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/defa...on121616-2.gif

As of the end of November, the value of GLD’s holdings was just 0.166% the market capitalization of the S&P 500. We only calculate the latter number monthly, but can estimate where this GLD/SPX ratio sat as of Fed Day this week. It likely dropped near 0.152%! That conservatively implies that American stock investors have allocated well less than 0.2% of their portfolios to gold. That may as well be zero it’s so low.

The last normal years for gold and the stock markets before the Fed’s extreme QE3 campaign levitated stocks and thus killed gold investment demand ran between 2009 to 2012. This GLD/SPX-ratio proxy of gold portfolio exposure averaged 0.475% over that span, over 3.1x higher than today’s meager levels! That means stock investors have vast room to buy gold again when stock markets inevitably roll over from here.

For centuries the world’s smartest investors have recommended gold allocations in portfolios of at least 5% to 10% for every investor. As the anti-stock trade, gold is the ultimate diversifier that acts as a hedge and form of insurance against significant weakness in stocks and bonds. It’s hard to imagine anyone with some understanding of stock-market cycles and market history totally neglecting to maintain a gold allocation.

A massive new gold bull doesn’t require American investors’ collective gold allocation to soar way up to 5%. Returning to merely one-tenth of that, 0.5%, would likely drive gold higher for years as stock-market capital poured into gold. And just like a year ago, all it will take to get investors interested in gold again is a major stock-market selloff. One is certainly overdue again no matter what wonders Trump works next year.

Stock markets perpetually move in great valuation-driven cycles, with bull markets always followed by bears. Stock valuations get too stretched in bulls as traders bid up stock prices far faster than the critical underlying corporate profits are actually growing. That leads to euphoric toppings that soon give way to major bears, which force stock prices lower for long enough for profits to catch up with lofty stock prices.


At the end of November even before this month’s incredible stock-market surge, the simple average of the trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratios of all 500 S&P 500 companies was already 28.1x. That is double historical fair value of 14x, and literally in bubble territory! A major bear at least cutting stock prices in half is long overdue, but even a major correction approaching 20% is all but certain in 2017.

Remember all it took to rekindle gold investment demand in early 2016 was a 13% S&P 500 correction, fairly small as far as corrections go. They range from 10% to 20%, with anything beyond that qualifying as a new bear market. Sooner or later all the euphoria about what Trump and the Republicans could do will give way to the hard realities of what they actually can and will do. It won’t be as extensive as traders hope.

Republican Congressional leaders are already blunting the tax-cut and infrastructure-spending hopes, declaring they need to be revenue-neutral so they don’t balloon the already-staggering federal debt. And it is unlikely any major tax cuts will come before 2018 at the earliest, leaving the bubble-valued stock prices heavily exposed to falling profits thanks to the Fed-goosed US dollar. Stock markets are in serious trouble.

And even if Trump comes through with gargantuan tax cuts and huge new spending, this vast deluge of new money will lead to rampant inflation. This week the Fed already hinted at inflation rising, but what’s been seen so far is trivial compared to what’s coming if even half of Trump’s campaign proposals make it to reality. Inflation is very damaging to stock markets, and thus very bullish for gold investment demand.

So it’s imperative smart investors and speculators fight the herd groupthink today. The stock markets will not keep rallying indefinitely as everyone expects, and gold isn’t doomed to spiral lower forever. Once these euphoric stock markets inevitably reverse decisively, investment capital is going to come roaring back into gold for portfolio diversification. Gold’s upside potential in 2017 is much greater than it was in early 2016.

Comments from Benjaminis: I have decided that when I include much of an article that to highlight the KEY POINTS and what is to be learned from the material will be summarized at the end with my BULLET POINTS !!!

What we learn is that when the Stock Market goes up usually the MONEY will FLOW into equities and because of the nature of the the power of GLD both ways it has a major effect on the Gold price. Here is the part of this article that highlights this very important point.

"Last January as stock markets fell into their worst correction since mid-2011, a 13.3% S&P 500 selloff, gold investment demand via GLD shares soared. In Q1’16, GLD’s holdings rocketed 176.9t higher. Later the World Gold Council, the definitive arbiter of global gold supply-and-demand fundamentals, declared total world gold demand grew by 219.4t year-over-year. GLD’s holdings build alone accounted for 80.6% of that!"

SO by KNOWING this then we know when to buy the currency pair XAU/USD and when to buy or sell US30.

This again shows us trends and explanations and it goes to Risk Off or Risk on which happens in the markets at the start of each trading day.

Please post any comments or questions here on our thread. Thank You.

1. Dec 17, 2016 10:54pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,089 Posts | Online Now

Folks in the last article click on the link that states it is a credible possibility. I know all the sources by experience of reading their articles for many years and I sincerely hope it is not true however now I have some doubts so Monday could be an historic day. We shall all see within 48 hours.

My day is now ending and so it goes as We live in interesting times.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/46056.htm

The "Elite" Coup Of 2016
By Moon Of Alabama
December 16, 2016 "Information Clearing House" - "Moon Of Alabama" -

 

1. There is an "elite" coup attempt underway against the U.S. President-elect Trump.
2. The coup is orchestrated by the camp of Hillary Clinton in association with the CIA and neoconservative powers in Congress.
3. The plan is to use the CIA's "Russia made Trump the winner" nonsense to swing the electoral college against him. The case would then be bumped up to Congress. Major neocon and warmonger parts of the Republicans could then move the presidency to Clinton or, if that fails, put Trump's vice president-elect Mike Pence onto the throne. The regular bipartisan war business, which a Trump presidency threatens to interrupt, could continue.
4. Should the coup succeed violent insurrections in the United States are likely to ensue with unpredictable consequences.

The above theses are thus far only a general outlay. No general plan has been published. The scheme though is pretty obvious by now. However, the following contains some speculation.
The priority aim is to deny Trump the presidency. He is too independent and a danger for several power centers within the ruling U.S. power circles. The selection of Tillerson as new Secretary of State only reinforces this (Prediction: Bolton will not get the Deputy position.) Tillerson is for profitable stability, not for regime change adventures. The institutional Trump enemies are:

1. The CIA which has become the Central Assassination Agency under the Bush and Obama administrations. Huge parts of its budgets depend on a continuation of the war on Syria and the drone assassination campaigns in Afghanistan, Pakistan and elsewhere. Trump's more isolationist policies would likely end these campaigns and the related budget troughs.
2. The weapons industry which could lose its enormous sales to its major customers in the Persian Gulf should a President Trump reduce U.S. interference in the Middle East and elsewhere.
3. The neoconservatives and Likudniks who want the U.S. as Israel's weapon to strong arm the Middle East to the Zionists' benefit.
4. The general war hawks, military and "humanitarian interventionists" to whom any reduction of the U.S. role as primary power in the world is anathema to their believes.

The current CIA director Brennan, a leading figure of the CIA torture program and Obama consigliere, is in the Clinton/anti-Trump camp. The former CIA heads Hayden and Panetta are public Clinton supporters as is torturer king and former CIA deputy director Michael Morell.
It is thereby no wonder that the CIA is leading the anti-Russian campaign. Its task now is to implant the idea in the U.S. public that Russian intervention skewed the U.S. election towards Trump. The purpose is the delegitimization of the Trump victory in the eyes of the media and public but even more so in the eyes of the electors within the electoral college.
The CIA is heavily supported by the same mainstream media that pushed for Clinton during the election. (These are, not by chance, also the same media that pushed the CIA's earlier "Saddam's Weapon of Mass Destruction" campaign.)
The Democratic partisan and Harvard law Professor Lawrence Lessig is pushing the electors and offersthem free personal legal support. He says the electoral college vote is now close.
Could 37 Republican electors, put there by voters in their states to vote for Trump, be convinced to move from electing Trump to abstain or vote for someone else, Trumpwould miss the needed 270 votes. The whole election of the president would then by kicked up to the House of Representatives.
Should the electors vote for Trump there is still a possibility that members of the House and the Senate could officially question that vote and cause delays or Congressional probes and legal challenges.
Here are the detailed general proceedings and specifics for the electoral college as explained by the National Archives and Records Administration.
Though neoconservatives have no genuine support within the U.S. electorate they have a strong hold on significant parts of Congress and the relevant MSM commentariat. Many leading neoconservatives and war hawks like Robert Kagan, Max Boot and the Washington Post editorial board came out for Clinton during the campaign. Clinton even ran campaign advertisements with Republican Congress luminaries like Lindsay Graham, Sasse and Flake.
The House and the Senate majority may well be on the anti-Trump side if push comes to shove. But whatever the outcome there surely would be intense legal challenges and I expect the case to go up to the Supreme Court.
As an alternative to legal shenanigans Trump's inauguration could be delayed by Obama's order to the intelligence community to create a formal review of Russian intervention in the election by January 20. That is not by chance the official inauguration date! The selling point:
By ordering a “full review” of allegations of Russian into the 2016 election process, President Barack Obama is essentially asking the IC to make an analytical judgment about the validity of the election that will place Trump in the Oval Office.
A "compromise" in Congress could be to wait for the Intelligence Community's analysis and then discuss it before certifying Trump as president. That would end up with no result as National Intelligence Estimates are notoriously vague. Meanwhile the Vice President-elect would sit in as acting President:
If the President-elect fails to qualify before inauguration, Section 3 of the 20th Amendment states that the Vice President-elect will act as President until such a time as a President has qualified.
If the congressional or legal process around the Trump election gets delayed, that may be a state for a long time. The ruling Washington blob or borg could well live with an acting President Pence while Trump would have no official say in any government business. (Could Clinton then become acting VP or qualify as the new president?)
The media intervention on the anti-Trump side is heavy.
But first keep in mind that there is no public evidence, ZERO, that Russia indeed had anything to do with the DNC or Podesta or other leaks and the publication of emails by various outlets like Wikileaks.
Craig Murray assures us that he knows that these were not hacks but insider leaks and that he knows the leaker(s). Indeed he now tells us that the emails were handed over to him during a visits in Washington. Former intelligence officials including the technically very knowledgeable former NSA official William Binney concur that the hacking story is false.
All we have heard or seen so far are hearsay rumors and allegations of evidence. To me as experienced IT professional the case is technically laughable just as Murray explains here. If the claimed hacks occurred at all the alleged methods were so common that anybody could have done these. There is not even one claimed fact yet that is technically halfway acceptable as evidence that "Russia did it".
But still the NYT runs a big package of pieces telling us that "Russia did it" based on the non-factual CIA rumors and unprofessional IT assertions by Crowdstrike, the self-promoting IT security company the DNC hired and paid. Before that the Washington Post published major claims of Russian interference by anonymous officials. NBC News now tops that with "intelligence officials" saying Putin himself ran the hacking campaign. Authors of the story are the long time insider hacks Bill Arkin and Ken Dilanian knownfor clearing his stories with the CIA before publishing. The next story will tells us that Vladimir Valdimirovich himself was punching the keyboard.
Many news outlets and editorials follow these "leads".
Part of the scheme the Clinton campaign has worked out was explained by a former opposition research consultant to the Democratic National Council, the Ukrainian-American Alexandra (aka Andrea) Chalupa, in this thread:
Andrea Chalupa ‏@AndreaChalupa Dec 11
1.) Electoral College meets Dec. 19. If Electors ignore #StateOfEmergency we're in, & Trump gets elected, we can stop him Jan. 6 in Congress
2.) If any objections to Electoral College vote are made, they must be submitted in writing, signed by at least 1 House member & 1 Senator
3.) If objections are presented, House & Senate withdraw to their chambers to consider their merits under procedures set out in federal law.
...
Editorials and op-eds in the major papers are pushing the scheme along. Just for example from a long list A.J. Dionne in the Washington Post:
The CIA’s finding that Russia actively intervened in our election to make Trump president is an excellent reason for the electors to consider whether they should exercise their independent power. At the very least, they should be briefed on what the CIA knows, and in particular on whether there is any evidence that Trump or his lieutenants were engaged with Russia during the campaign.
The New York Times editorial laments about Trump ridiculing the CIA fairy tales it promotes.
Many people who have voted for Trump would be disgusted and outraged if or when Trump will be denied his office. Many of them are armed and would protest. Violence is ensured should the coup succeed.
Trump selected four former generals to joins his cabinet and staff. Should the troubles escalate we might be roughly in for a scenario as laid out in the 1992 military paper:The Origins of the American Military Coup of 2012 (pdf) by Charles J. Dunlap.
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Information Clearing House editorial policy.


Benjaminis

 

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4. Dec 17, 2016 11:32pm

1. wayfarer
2. | Joined Sep 2016 | Status: Member | 162 Posts

BenjaminIs, Greetings. A good analyst, congratulations! Is there any correlation between the dollar index and the price of gold?I'm not speak English, I'm sorry.
To learn how to swim , you first need to enter the water!

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4. Dec 18, 2016 7:32pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,090 Posts | Online Now

FROM AVA TRADE

Introduction to Fundamental Analysis

There are two main approaches to analyse the market during trading sessions, and both are popular among traders. One is called Technical Analysis, and predicts changes in the market based on past occurrences, market tendencies and behavior. Another one is Fundamental Analysis, which focuses on current events very closely, in order to try and predict how the market will turn.

When doing fundamental analysis, a trader studies the overall state of the economy, concentrating mainly on elements closely related to his trade. The research focuses on financial events including those that are remotely related but yet could affect the trade. Political, social and general events can all have a significant influence on the markets.

Why Conduct Fundamental Analysis

This type of analysis is for traders who wish to dig deeper into the financial world. It takes a little more time than some traders are willing and able to invest, but should have positive outcomes if done properly. What stands behind any type of analysis is the wish to avoid surprises that might jeopardize the trader’s money. Therefore the deeper the research and analysis, the lower the chances to be taken by surprise. Some of the world’s top traders, who regularly appear on top rich lists employ fundamental analysis. This is defiantly a good track to follow.

We must emphasize that even when conducting a thorough fundamental analysis, there is no guarantee the trade will be successful. The nature of trading any instrument is its relationship to external factors that can impact it, and the fact that the market can dramatically change within minutes, flipping our speculations and changing the fate of our trades.

How to Start Fundamental Analysis

Once you have decided on fundamental analysis as your course of action, we recommend starting by familiarizing yourself with the instrument you wish to trade. All frequent events that can impact your instrument should be taken into account. You should find the right sources to get daily news and make sure to follow them by subscribing to their newsletter and logging on regularly.

One of the main tools of fundamental analysis is to closely follow the economic calendar. It is crucial for a trader to familiarize himself with upcoming financial events involving influential players in the financial arena, such as treasuries, banks etc. One should learn which events are relevant to his trading market, and then detect how to prepare for those events.

An example to the importance of fundamental analysis can be found with the monthly US unemployed report, called the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP). The NFP usually affects the USD rate, which may lead to changes in the value of other instruments, such as gold, crude oil and others. Before the NFP is announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, traders speculate on the content of the declaration, and based on that calculate their trades. This is called fundamental analysis.

To begin employing fundamental analysis, every trader should find a number of informative sources, which will provide him with knowledge that will help him with fundamental analysis, thus assisting and improving his trades. We invite you to check out our blog, which updates on a daily basis with crucial data relevant to all instruments.


COMMENTS FROM Benjaminis: NOTE !!!

My Fundamental Analysis uses all of the above HOWEVER My Money Flow Method takes FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS to a New Level and THUS gives me an EDGE in my Forex Trading. I can teach you that EDGE and as explained many times in this Money Flow Method and Risk Management thread the MOVEMENTS of FUNDS in the Trillions of Dollars each day causes the values of each of the Asset Classes to change and knowing how one Asset Class changing in VALUE affects another Asset Class gives you the Trend. "The Trend Is Your Friend"

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4. Dec 19, 2016 7:47pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,091 Posts | Online Now

WWW.JSMINESET.COM

Snippet:
Posted December 19th, 2016 at 2:13 PM (CST) by Jim Sinclair & filed under General Editorial.


Dear Comrades in Golden Arms,

What is left to go before the Great Reset?

The Great Reset is the milestone economic event that is the final step in the restructuring of the monetary system that functions as real money is intended to.

This system in word and fact is the mechanism the sum of its parts truly functions as:
1.A Store House of value.
2.A Measure of value.
3.A Standard of value
4.A Medium of Exchange.
Money as generally interpreted in your modern business school and by a general public is anything of value that serves as a (1) generally accepted medium of financial exchange, (2) legal tender for repayment of debt, (3) standard of value, (4) unit of accounting measure, and (5) means to save or store purchasing power.


Read more: http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/money.html


Before we get into the subject lets agree to certain facts.

Common types of currency issued by official order are valued based on the issuing authoritys guarantee to pay the stated (face) amount on demand, and not on any intrinsic worth or extrinsic backing. All national currencies in circulation, issued and managed by the respective central banks, are fiat currencies.
Read more: http://www.businessdictionary.com/de...-currency.html

There simple is not enough fiat currency on circulation to pay off all national and business debts even if we exclude government guarantees.
Most what is called money is an accounting entry now in cyberspace.

Computer currencies are a bridge over mental gap between the common belief in money and the requirements of what money truly does.

All of this is based on confidence in a system whose foundation of convincing on a continuing basis a public that the fiat currency can pretend and extend an illusion of real money whose definition is other than that universally held now and whose foundation is set in the cement of a pure illusion without backing in kind, uninsured and failing badly in many respects.

Please keep in mind that President Elect Trump is a proven master at the use of bankruptcy in business to set a foundation upon which a going concern can replace the previous failed entity or system of operation of the entity.

Not only is the monetary system insolvent if called upon to perform in even a modesty percentage. The entire system would fail miserably. However, there is no lack of resources and productivity if incentivized to make the global system again functional and durable by making real, not pretend money the basis.
What is Mr. Trumps real business background?

He is a builder of brick and mortar.
He is a negotiator.
He has zero lack of self worth or abilities.

He is a master of using the economic tool of bankruptcy to restructure and retreat and from the conditions of financial bankruptcy.

Todays world is without any doubt a rolling bankruptcy whose foundation is pretend and extend. Inherently pretend and extend has shown no permanency anytime, anywhere. The Great Flush which must proceed the Great Reset has been, most disturbingly, war won or lost.

Therefore, the United States, one of the most powerful countries in the global system, is insolvent, that is true just on the factors of OTC derivatives and unfunded obligations. You need not be a genius to understand this.

As a result of all this nothing has been economically supplied to cure the basic problem. Pretend and extend has been the basis of the illusion that the system functions.

Why is gold hated, the dollar and the equity market always protected by the creation of more illusion that all is steady and the government and quasi government the underwriter of this.

Economic Potemkin City of money with stability. Why did gold move up and the general markets decline near $900 when the unexpected victory of President Elect Donald Trump occur? The answer is that a correct definition of the worlds new leader in known by some. It was the Hillary Clinton Plunge Protection Machine that rescued the market and pressured gold lower which was prepared in anticipation of a Clinton victory for the unexpected Trump victory.

There is an axiom that before a massive public will accept a new system as a way out, they must suffer severely. This is proven by history in every national bankruptcy of a nations currency. An example of note is the Weimar Republic that gave rise to the socialist leader, Hitler. In this example the war had to be lost for a Reset to happen. The reason I anticipate the Great Reset, is that the experiment of Globalism has failed miserably with the world now imitating the recklessness of massive Western Debt creation.

This is not the end of the world but rather the means of change to a new world that in the end might be quite abundant and peaceful. Just like a great fall caused no injury if you have prepared a large foam mattress for your family.

The injury comes via the means by which the fall stops. It is this that we work so hard to prepare you for in order for the transition by painless to you. It is not a game of gambling but of structuring in many ways to make your landing soft, not hard.

The means to the Great reset is in place and moving forward. It started with the nine exchanges opened for trading in PHYSICAL gold and silver. Premiums have been running in the $40-$45 basis on gold and $2 on silver.

The profit by arbitrage, which is the purchase and sale of the same item.


So here is your scenario:
1. Physical gold continues to rise under Mid Eastern and Russian demand plus the demand of sleeping giants in the US typically called One Percenters.

2. The physical gold arbitrage is not cheap requiring precise logistics, insurance, and relationships.

Trust which are hard to come by. Cooperation of a major gold refiner with in place logistics and payment systems plus trust is an absolute requirement.
All of this can be purchased except trust which is a product of long and fruitful relationships.

3. As the premium for gold, that is the price on the physical markets in China and Asia rises to over $50 and remains firm regardless of the ups and downs in the paper market the arbitrage will be profitable enough.

5. This Arbitrage has one place to come from and that is out of the paper gold warehouses to the refineries delivered directly to the account of the buyer or directly to the account of the physical exchange at the refinery.

6. Normal assays require 3 days and delivery according to logistics is prompt as one/two days or is made at the refineries.

7. Therefore the mechanics of the Great Reset has little to do with anything whatsoever except the size of the premium of physical over paper gold and silver plus the above criteria.

8. As this process continues the warehouse supply of all paper exchanges will continue to dwindle until the paper contract can longer function.

9. No longer function means even pretending to be able to make delivery when called upon right now for every one ounce of gold five hundred at twenty for are promised as deliverable. That is almost as crazy as the fraudulent OTC derivatives with no mark to market that we pretend has value.

10. When delivery from the paper exchange fails which it will, what is the value of a novated contract that cannot perform at the Comex? That is right. It is zero.

11. Since in the Hunt situation the first thing the board of directors at the Comex did was unilaterally changed (one side refuses to perform) the contract to Sellers Only. You can be sure the same people will do the same thing.

12. What do you think a contract that does not perform is worth? Again the correct answer is nothing.

13. As this occurs, which it has to, the paper gold contract loses all value. It is also useless if you are short because it will not perform for short the paper gold cover either. You cannot buy back a novated contract and meet the requirements for a short cover.

The reason is simple as a non novated contract for paper gold is entirely different than a regularly function paper gold contract since one is an apple and the other is a banana. You may have an 1100 plus fake profit you cannot collect one cent on.

As such all the normal causes of high gold and silver prices will play but a MINOR part in the unfolding drama. No group of wizards at any institution will figure this out, make it happen or stop it from happening as long as the price differential between paper gold and the price of the physical remain at or above the price of physical market for both.

In conclusion regardless of the drama unfolding or the opinion of so many new gurus no one word they say is correct in determination of the final price of gold.


All that matters is what is written above in points in 14 points.

Comex paper gold will be offered at a nominal price, say $5 offered and no bid. Physical gold will be between $3000 and $5000 big and offered by China, Russia and others.

I am regularly chastised for my dedicated bullishness in both my opinion on the gold price and on gold shares even though I am correct.

CONCLUSIONS FROM Jim Sinclair

Now if per chance you could mine gold at let’s say $600 or so please inform me why you would sell it other than to meet immediate needs.

Bulyanhulu in Tanzania for instance has always been assumed to hold 20,000,000 ounces or more from inception. How much of that gold has been sold at present and lower absurd prices if you have a clear understanding of the shift in the mechanism for price discover in gold from paper exchanges to physical exchanges being the sole reason the Russians and Chinese are correct in buying all the physical offered.

Therefore, gold is going to $5000 or better wherein the profit will be made by Physical gold investors and enlightened gold company management that strives to produce and store all their gold not needed for sale to keep the lights on. The location for storage is at an international non – bank Swiss refinery, not at the location of the mine or at the location of the companies.

Try to explain that to anyone if you want to see glass forming over their eyes when it is so simple it screams at you.

The currency of greatest attraction will be that of the nation holding the most gold. The currency of the nation holding the least gold will be the weakest. Thus the market, not central banks accomplish the RESET.

Two ladies go to the inauguration balls. One quite beautiful lady wears a 10 carat diamond and the other lady wearing the hope diamond. Who gets looked at the most.

The value of gold is the jewelry.

Worn by the nation.

This is how currencies will ultimately be sought after.

Currencies will be valued by the value of gold each national treasury has.

It would be quite nice if the ISA has the gold they claim but this can only be known when a real third party audit occurs. Regardless either what I have told you what will happen. This is not in the far distant future.

Remember this is triggered at any price of gold should the difference in physical versus paper gold trigger the arbitrage transaction.
Respectfully,
Jim

Good Morning Forex Traders

Today we have RISK OFF

So the following article becomes very important to understand.


https://www.birchgold.com/news/chair...eid=eb89addef1

From Birch Gold Group
In a speech on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that he had a “neutral” outlook on rates. According to a CNBC article, he was quoted:
Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy — that is, neither speeding up nor slowing down growth.


But CNBC notes that, as recently as October, Powell’s was indicating that rates were “a long way from neutral.” Could the change in tone simply be public relations damage control?


It’s important to note that rates may still be “low” by historical standards, but only if you include 35+ years of interest rate history. However, if you look at just this century, rates are headed towards the highest levels since 2007 (see chart below). And keep in mind there’s a good chance that we’ll see one more rate hike in December, as the Fed has alluded to in their November meeting statement.
https://www.birchgold.com/wp-content.../rate-rise.png


In response to Powell’s “neutral” language, the Dow Jones jumped 617 points. This represents its biggest one-day gain since this March, according to CNBC. Of course, the Dow has rebounded two other times since October 3, only to lose those gains each time.


Another strange part of Powell’s statement was the indication that the Fed’s “neutral” rates were “neither speeding up nor slowing down growth.” His analysis is odd, because CPI inflation has been on the rise for the last several years (see red arrow):
https://www.birchgold.com/wp-content...i-1024x431.png


And yet, the Dow jump and Powell’s “neutral rate” statement oddities somehow aren’t the strangest items from Wednesday’s speech.
Seems the Fed Want to “Have It Both Ways”


The Fed issued a stark warning about a potential trifecta that could impact the economy. Their warning reads:
An escalation in trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty, or other adverse shocks could lead to a decline in investor appetite for risks in general… The resulting drop in asset prices might be particularly large, given that valuations appear elevated relative to historical levels.


But then, in an odd about-face, the Fed also warned in the report that “its own rate hikes could pose a threat.”


So which is it? Neutral rates that don’t have an effect or rates that pose a threat? Time will certainly tell.


Even Jim Cramer recently said that Powell “blinked” on rates. According to Dave Kranzler, it may turn out to be more like tunnel vision:
More likely, by the time the first FOMC meeting rolls around in 2019, the economy will be in a tailspin, with debt and derivative bombs detonating.


However it turns out, it’s hard to know which opinion Powell will show at the next FOMC meeting.

Will the Real Chairman Powell Please Stand Up?



Powell’s contradictory remarks make it difficult to predict (let alone trust) how the market reacts to them.


And as you’ve likely seen, CPI inflation is still rising overall, while the yield curve continues to shrink (right now it’s at 23 basis points and still flattening, the lowest since 2008). So that one-day Dow Jones gain could turn out to be quite transient.


Bottom line, anything can happen at this point, up to and including the anticipated rate hike in December. It’s even possible for Chairman Powell to stop using “neutral” language, although we wouldn’t count on that.


If ever there was a time to make sure your portfolio is as resilient as possible for the bumpy ride ahead, it would be now.


Benjaminis

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ops+to+zero%29

SNIPPET:

What precisely is afoot?
My readers, who have partially and some wholly escaped from The Matrix, understand that this is the further fragmentation of American society. Identity Politics has set men, women, blacks, Jews, Asians, Hispanics, and white people against one another.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...efault-3-1.jpg


Identity Politics is the essence of the Democratic Party and the American liberal/progressive/left. Now, with the creation of “new” but otherwise nonexistent “genders,” although they are honored as real by the controlled whores who masquerade as a “Western media,” we witness radical feminists being silenced by men pretending to be women.


I sympathize with Meghan Murphy, but she brought this on herself and on the rest of us by accepting Identity Politics. Identity Politics gave Meghan a justification for hating men even, as she failed to realize, it provided the basis for moving her into the exploitative class that must be censored.


Where does this end?
It has already gone far enough that the American population is so divided and mutually hostile that there is no restraint by “the American people” on government and the elite oligarchs that rule. “The American people” are no longer a reality but a mythical creature like the unicorn.





The film, The Matrix, is the greatest film of out lifetime. Why? Because it shows that there are two realities. A real one of which only a few people are aware, and a virtual one in which everyone else lives.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...sredblue_0.jpg


In the United States today, and throughout “Western Brainwashed Civilization,” only a handful of people exist who are capable of differentiating the real from the created reality in which all explanations are controlled and kept as far away from the truth as possible.


Everything that every Western government and “news” organization says is a lie to control the explanations that we are fed in order to keep us locked in The Matrix.


The ability to control people’s understandings is so extraordinary that, despite massive evidence to the contrary, Americans believe that Oswald, acting alone, was the best shot in human history and using magic bullets killed President John F. Kenndy; that a handful of Saudi Arabians who demonstratively could not fly airplanes outwitted the American national security state and brought down 3 World Trade Center skyscrapers and part of the Pentagon; that Saddam Hussein had and was going to use on the US “weapons of mass destruction;” that Assad “used chemical weapons” against “his own people;” that Libya’s Gaddifi gave his soldiers Viagra so they could better rape Libyan women; that Russia “invaded Ukraine;” that Trump and Putin stole the presidential election from Hillary.


The construction of a make-believe reality guarantees the US military/security complex’s annual budget of $1,000 billion dollars of taxpayers’ money even as Congress debates cutting Social Security in order to divert more largess to the pockets of the corrupt military/security complex.


Readers ask me what they can do about it. Nothing, except revolt and cleanse the system, precisely as Founding Father Thomas Jefferson said.
Is Thomas Jefferson Alive and Well In Paris?
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...5_12-03-09.jpg


If this report is correct, pray the revolt spreads to the US
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9. Daneric's Elliott Waves
10. Dr. Housing Bubble
11. ETF Daily News
12. ETF Digest
13. Financial Revolutionist
14. First Rebuttal
15. ForexLive
16. Fundist
17. Gains Pains & Capital
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19. Gold Core
20. Guerrilla Capitalism
21. Hedge Accordingly
22. Implode-Explode
23. Investing Contrarian
24. Jesse's Cafe Americain
25. Letters From Norway
26. Liberty Blitzkrieg
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29. Mises Institute
30. Mish Talk
31. Naked Capitalism
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40. Slope of Hope
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42. TF Metals Report
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47. The Vineyard Of The Saker
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50. Value Walk
51. Wolf Street

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ops+to+zero%29

So much for a trade war truce between China and the US, or a stock market Christmas rally for that matter.


Shortly after the news hit that Huawei CFO Wanzhou Meng — also deputy chairwoman and the daughter of Huawei’s founder — was arrested on December 1, or right around the time Trump and Xi were having dinner in Buenos Aires last Saturday, and faces extradition to the U.S. as a result of a DOJ investigation into whether the Chinese telecom giant sold gear to Iran despite sanctions on exports to the region, China immediately lodged a formal protest publishing a statement at its embassy in Canada, and demanding the U.S. and its neighbor "rectify wrongdoings" and free Meng, warning it would "closely follow the development of the issue" and will "take all measures" to protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese citizens.


Full statement below:
https://static.apester.com/js/assets/loader_100x100.gif
Remarks of the Spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in Canada on the issue of a Chinese citizen arrested by the Canadian side

At the request of the US side, the Canadian side arrested a Chinese citizen not violating any American or Canadian law. The Chinese side firmly opposes and strongly protests over such kind of actions which seriously harmed the human rights of the victim. The Chinese side has lodged stern representations with the US and Canadian side, and urged them to immediately correct the wrongdoing and restore the personal freedom of Ms. Meng Wanzhou.


We will closely follow the development of the issue and take all measures to resolutely protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese citizens.

Meng's arrest will immediately heighten tensions between Washington and Beijing just days after the world’s two largest economies agreed on a truce in their growing trade conflict. It will, or at least should, also prompt any US execs currently in China to think long and hard if that's where they want to be, say, tomorrow when Xi decides to retaliate in kind.


Meng’s father Ren Zhengfei, a former army engineer who’s regularly named among China’s top business executives, has won acclaim at home for turning an electronics reseller into the world’s second-largest smartphone maker and a major producer of networking gear.


As Bloomberg notes, the CFO’s arrest will be regarded back home as an attack on China’s foremost corporate champions. While Alibaba and Tencent dominate headlines thanks to flashy growth and high-profile billionaire founders, Ren’s company is by far China’s most global technology company, with operations spanning Africa, Europe and Asia.


“Tencent and Alibaba may be domestic champions and huge platforms in of their own rights, but Huawei has become a global powerhouse,” said Neil Campling, an analyst at Mirabaud Securities Ltd. It is “5G standards that are at the heart of the wider IP debate and why the U.S. and her allies are now doing everything they can to cut to the heart of the Chinese technology IP revolution.”


At the same time, Huawei's technological ambitions have also gotten the company in hot water with the US: its massive push into future mobile communications has raised hackles in the U.S. and become a focal point for American attempts to contain China’s ascendance.

Going back to the arrest, the U.S. Justice Department declined to comment about the circumstances involving the CFO, although the biggest question on everyone's mind right now is whether Trump was aware of the pending arrest at the time of his dinner with the Chinese president, and why exactly he had greenlighted the move which would certainly result in another diplomatic scandal, promptly crushing and goodwill that was generated at the G-20 dinner.
Meanwhile, in a statement, Huawei said the arrest was made on behalf of the U.S. so Meng could be extradited to “face unspecified charges” in the Eastern District of New York.

“The company has been provided very little information regarding the charges and is not aware of any wrongdoing by Ms. Meng,” Huawei said. “The company believes the Canadian and U.S. legal systems will ultimately reach a just conclusion. Huawei complies with all applicable laws and regulations where it operates, including applicable export control and sanction laws and regulations of the UN, U.S. and EU.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...0statement.jpg



Tensions between the Chinese telecom giant and U.S. authorities escalated in 2016, when the US voiced concerns for the first time that Huawei and others could install back doors in their equipment that would let them monitor users in the U.S. Huawei has denied those allegations. The Pentagon stopped offering Huawei’s devices on U.S. military bases citing security concerns. Best Buy Co., one of the largest electronics retailers in the U.S., also recently stopped selling Huawei products.


In August, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a bill banning the government’s use of Huawei technology based on the security concerns. The same month, Australia banned the use of Huawei’s equipment for new faster 5G wireless networks in the country and New Zealand last week did the same, citing national security concerns. Similar moves are under consideration in the U.K. The U.S., which believes Huawei’s equipment can be used for spying, is contacting key allies including Germany, Italy and Japan, to get them to persuade companies in their countries to avoid using equipment from Huawei, the Wall Street Journal reported last week.


In 2016, the Commerce Department sought information regarding whether Huawei was possibly sending U.S. technology to Syria and North Korea as well as Iran.


The U.S. previously banned ZTE Corp., a Huawei competitor, for violating a sanctions settlement over transactions with Iran and North Korea.
The cynics out there may claim that the US response is merely in place to delay the development of the company which in the third quarter overtook Apple as the No. 2 global smartphone maker, shipping more than 52.2 million units according to Gartner Inc.


“This is what you call playing hard ball,” said Michael Every, head of Asia financial markets research at Rabobank in Hong Kong. “China is already asking for her release, as can be expected, but if the charges are serious, don’t expect the US to blink.”
The biggest question is what will China do next. One look at futures, which flash crashed earlier when the news of the CFO's arrest first hit, suggests that whatever it is, Beijing will probably not be happy.


Zero Hedge Reads

1. Acting Man
2. Alt-Market
3. Benzinga
4. Boom Bust Blog
5. Capitalist Exploits
6. China Financial Markets
7. Chris Martenson's Blog
8. Contrary Investor
9. Daneric's Elliott Waves
10. Dr. Housing Bubble
11. ETF Daily News
12. ETF Digest
13. Financial Revolutionist
14. First Rebuttal
15. ForexLive
16. Fundist
17. Gains Pains & Capital
18. Gefira
19. Gold Core
20. Guerrilla Capitalism
21. Hedge Accordingly
22. Implode-Explode
23. Investing Contrarian
24. Jesse's Cafe Americain
25. Letters From Norway
26. Liberty Blitzkrieg
27. Market Montage
28. Max Keiser
29. Mises Institute
30. Mish Talk
31. Naked Capitalism
32. Newsbud
33. Of Two Minds
34. Oil Price
35. Peter Schiff
36. Quoth The Raven Rsrch
37. Rebooting Capitalism
38. Safehaven
39. Shanky's Tech Blog
40. Slope of Hope
41. SmartKnowledgeU Blog
42. TF Metals Report
43. The Automatic Earth
44. The Burning Platform
45. The Economic Populist
46. The Hammerstone Group
47. The Vineyard Of The Saker
48. Themis Trading
49. True Sinews
50. Value Walk
51. Wolf Street

1. Post 272
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Dec 20, 2016 9:00am | Edited at 9:28am

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,095 Posts | Online Now

Good day fellow traders on Forex Factory. I have been trading Forex for over 10 years now and with the incredible movements on a monthly basis which has been caused by the intervention efforts of the world's central banks trading today is much different trading before 2008. Thus RISK MANAGEMENT must be a priority for any serious forex currency trader. You should never RISK more than 5% of your trading capital on any one trade plan. I also strongly suggest that you never trade more than 20% of your total trading capital at anytime. Example - If you are trading $50,000 in US Funds NEVER have more than 20% or $10,000 US Dollars on your various trade plans always using the 5% rule for risk on each trade plan being used.

The Money Flow Trading Method is based each trading day on Risk On or Risk Off which means are the markets heading down or heading up. I use the DOW to determine this each day. When the markets head down and we have Risk Off the money flows into US Dollars first and then the money is parked usually into US Bonds so the bonds go up and the yield goes down. Money also flows to USD/JPY. I will give more explanations when the forex markets reopen on Sunday. If you have any comments or questions please post them on this thread. Tomorrow we have two important events the most important being the referendum in Italy.

The results will move the markets whichever result we see. This is a Fundamental Fact and that combined with Technical Indicators as to Support and Resistance along with investor perception of the meaning of the results short term will lead the direction of the market. I will be thinking of going short on USD/JPY depending on the results of course and Risk being off.

Before I do any FX currency trade I always develop a Trade Plan as previously explained. So my Trade Plan will be to SHORT (Sell) 3 $100,000 US Dollar contracts of USD/JPY in 3 stages. My first trade will be my base trade and my MAXIMUM LOSS would be 100 PIPS or $1000 US Dollars. My second position when opened would also have a ENTERED STOP LOSS of $1000 US Dollars and so would my third and LAST position. With this strategy my MAXIMUM loss is $3000 US Dollars or 6% of my trading capital. After I enter the 3 positions I will print out a updated statement in Real Time so we all can follow along.

Again if you are a member of Forex Factory all feedback or questions are welcome and appreciated. If you are not registered as a member please register so that you can participate in this thread and other threads of course. Thank You !!!

I decided to open a second trade plan because of short covering in EUR/USD and I just shorted my first position of $100,000 US of EUR/USD at 105.40 and I will see where things stand at the Frankfurt open tomorrow morning. My total margin used is now at $3200 US Dollars for my three open positions. If I have on all 6 positions the capital used will total $6600.00 and my Net Possible loss will be $6000 US however I expect to close all positions at a profit most likely over the next 24 hours. You can never lose taking a good profit trading forex.


Just for the record I normally only trade from 2:00 AM EST at the Frankfurt open until 5:00 PM EST when the North American markets are closed. There is just not enough volume and my Money Flow Method works when all the Equities are trading so we start with the DAX , FTSE and CAC. By 6:00 AM when North America comes on board and the MSM gives their two cents worth. By 9:30 AM to 11:30 AM when Europe goes home and most major news comes out between 8:30 AM and 10:00 AM and daily Options on currencies close out for some of them at 10:00 we have plenty of material to work with. I do use technical indicators to determine entry and exit. We are in interesting times for the rest of December with the Electoral college declaring on December 19, 2016 and on December 31, 2016 we shall see the Shanghai Gold Exchange become very important because for the FIRST TIME Muslims can trade Gold and associated products as Comex which is effectively a paper market becomes less relevant. 2017 will be an extraordinary FX trading year.

The reason that I do NOT put on my third position on either of my trade plan is it is because it is usually my third position that is the most profitable as I scale in my positions rather than buy them all at the same time. The next 24 hours will most likely see many movements in the currencies and keep in mind that since the Trump rally is way overdone we may see a MAJOR reversal in Risk Off and money will flow to Gold and USD/JPY and with the weakness in EUR/USD it will be interesting to see how the US Bond market and the other Bond markets react.

Edit to Add FINVIZ link - 10 Year US Bonds. http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=d1

You can see money FLOWING into the 10 Year US Bond for safety and look at the gap on the 5 Minute chart. MONEYFLOW is my KEY to successful forex trading.http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=m5


COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: What I have decided to do this morning as for me in Canada it is 9:23 AM EST is to post all the information that is relevant in one location so it is easier to understand for anyone interested in becoming a successful trader. As I have just started to do it and I expect it will take me a few hours to complete it as I post I will reference it to where the information came from. The following post came from my post number 19 so with that as reference it makes it easier in case you go back and review my other posts. I will start another page after the basic information becomes too much for this page or I might start a new page after each of te 14 pages already up.

From Page 19:

My subject this morning is PERCEPTION and REALITY. The results of the Italian referendum last night are a perfect example of that. In normal times which means free markets where we have proper price discovery, it is easier to make speculative decisions on market trades. Today we all live in a financial world where the truth is always distorted by those in control. The control for the moment rests with the Central Banks of the world led by The Federal Reserve and followed by the ECB and the BOJ and the BOE.

After the financial meltdown of 2008 involving Lehman Brothers and TARP, which originally was voted down in the USA and then approved, the financial world entered into uncharted waters never ever seen before. It started with QE in the USA and it continued with Draghi in Europe saying he would do whatever had to be done. We also see the failed monetary policies of the last ten years in Japan by the BOJ.

So now we live in a world of NIRP and the attempt all over the world especially recently in India removing the 500 Rupee and 1000 Rupee as legal tender. Because of the Money Printing and Helicopter Drops clearly stated by Bernake in his role as Fed Chairman, there has been so much electronic cash created that now the Central Banks of the World must remove actual cash from the World before the Public figures out that the real cash does not exist and if everyone realized the truth that all monies would be removed from the banks of the world and our financial systems would immediately collapse.

So with the first two paragraphs as background is it any wonder that at times the ability to understand day to day movements in the various currencies is impossible. The fact that EUR/USD has gone up and the markets are ignoring the REALITY and looking as the market psychology of the PERCEPTION then it follows that the MARKET is always right until it is not. Another excellent example with real life consequences is the behavior of the US Stock Markets and the World Bond Markets since November 8, 2016 and the election of Donald J Trump.

Based only on hope and surely, NOT REALITY the wrong assumptions of stimulus in the USA with the NEW Trump Presidency has lead to over Two Trillion Dollars of loss in the World Bond Markets and new highs in the Dow and SP500. There is no possibility that everything will NOT reverse, when REALITY TRUMPS PERCEPTION and that is the whole point. It is in knowledge of reality and the timing of the reality taking effect.

It would be most appreciated to have some feedback so intelligent discussions can be entertained. This week might be the week for REALITY when we hear from the ECB on Thursday and of course next week the FED meets on December 13, 2016 and comes out with their Rate Decision on December 14, 2016. This could be the principle of buy the rumor and sell the news which is what seems to have happened with Italy and the referendum results. When the FED raises rates for the first time in one year even though last December when they raised once and no again.

Good Morning Forex Traders

I have done my first Forex trade on this FXCM UK Demo account. That was a few days ago. I only shorted 50 units of US30 (Dow 30) The profit was $503.50 US Dollars.

The reason that I had only shorted 50 units is because in the two years since I have started this thread I have also improved my Forex trading model.

By only trading 50 units the total of my maximum scaled in positions will be a total RISK of $500 + $1000 + $1000 for $2500.00 US Dollars or 5% of my initial trading capital of $50,000.

The reason for this change is that because of the extraordinary nature of the movements on all Asset classes by being more careful on my first position until I see if the momentum continues I lower the initial RISK on the first position of each of my Forex trade plans.

Just as an observation if I had left my first trade position open and followed my normal trading method of lowering my Limit Out for each $250.00 US Dollars in PROFITS locked in then that first trade would have earned well over the $10,000 US Funds or my 20% target for December 2018.