Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

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4. Dec 4, 2016 7:41pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,058 Posts | Online Now

Just for the record I normally only trade from 2:00 AM EST at the Frankfurt open until 5:00 PM EST when the North American markets are closed. There is just not enough volume and my Money Flow Method works when all the Equities are trading so we start with the DAX , FTSE and CAC. By 6:00 AM when North America comes on board and the MSM gives their two cents worth. By 9:30 AM to 11:30 AM when Europe goes home and most major news comes out between 8:30 AM and 10:00 AM and daily Options on currencies close out for some of them at 10:00 we have plenty of material to work with. I do use technical indicators to determine entry and exit. We are in interesting times for the rest of December with the Electoral college declaring on December 19, 2016 and on December 31, 2016 we shall see the ShanghaiGold Exchange become very important because for the FIRST TIME Muslims can trade Gold and associated products as Comex which is effectively a paper market becomes less relevant. 2017 will be an extraordinary FX trading year.

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4. Dec 5, 2016 6:43am | Edited at 7:13am

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,059 Posts | Online Now

Good Morning Everyone

My subject this morning is PERCEPTION and REALITY. The results of the Italian referendum last night are a perfect example of that. In normal times which means free markets where we have proper price discovery, it is easier to make speculative decisions on market trades. Today we all live in a financial world where the truth is always distorted by those in control. The control for the moment rests with the Central Banks of the world led by The Federal Reserve and followed by the ECB and the BOJ and the BOE.

After the financial meltdown of 2008 involving Lehman Brothers and TARP, which originally was voted down in the USA and then approved, the financial world entered into uncharted waters never ever seen before. It started with QE in the USA and it continued with Draghi in Europe saying he would do whatever had to be done. We also see the failed monetary policies of the last ten years in Japan by the BOJ.

So now we live in a world of NIRP and the attempt all over the world especially recently in India removing the 500 Rupee and 1000 Rupee as legal tender. Because of the Money Printing and Helicopter Drops clearly stated by Bernake in his role as Fed Chairman, there has been so much electronic cash created that now the Central Banks of the World must remove actual cash from the World before the Public figures out that the real cash does not exist and if everyone realized the truth that all monies would be removed from the banks of the world and our financial systems would immediately collapse.

So with the first two paragraphs as background is it any wonder that at times the ability to understand day to day movements in the various currencies is impossible. The fact that EUR/USD has gone up and the markets are ignoring the REALITY and looking as the market psychology of the PERCEPTION then it follows that the MARKET is always right until it is not. Another excellent example with real life consequences is the behavior of the US Stock Markets and the World Bond Markets since November 8, 2016 and the election of Donald J Trump.

Based only on hope and surely, NOT REALITY the wrong assumptions of stimulus in the USA with the NEW Trump Presidency has lead to over Two Trillion Dollars of loss in the World Bond Markets and new highs in the Dow and SP500. There is no possibility that everything will NOT reverse, when REALITY TRUMPS PERCEPTION and that is the whole point. It is in knowledge of reality and the timing of the reality taking effect.

It would be most appreciated to have some feedback so intelligent discussions can be entertained. This week might be the week for REALITY when we hear from the ECB on Thursday and of course next week the FED meets on December 13, 2016 and comes out with their Rate Decision on December 14, 2016. This could be the principle of buy the rumor and sell the news which is what seems to have happened with Italy and the referendum results. When the FED raises rates for the first time in one year even though last December when they raised there was strong indication by them of 4 more raises during 2016. We live in interesting times.

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4. Dec 5, 2016 4:42pm | Edited at 4:55pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,060 Posts | Online Now

I want to post this chart of USD/JPY so everyone can visually see what happened today in both the stock market (Dow) and the USD/JPY.

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=m5

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5

Everyone can see that based on the results of the Italian referendum of yesterday it was originally expected the markets would be Risk Off however for whatever reason the Dow went up for part of the day until it reversed which you can see from the 5 minute chart that I linked here of the Dow. You can see that as the Dow reverses so does the USD/JPY almost 160 PIPS. This was my whole POINT of MONEY FLOW TRADING. You can see the money flowing out of the Dow and some of this flow causes money to go into the Yen. Knowing this you have an EDGE in putting on a Trade Plan. If anyone reading this is not 100% clear please post a question for me.

At 7:48 AM this morning I shorted my third position of USD/JPY at 114.321 and I will hold my position overnight and my unrealized profit is now $476.36 with USD/JPY at 113.77.

Imagine not needing to plan a trade solely on the technical indicators and the FUNDAMENTAL becomes the Money Flow caused by the movements of the various Asset Classes such as Gold. As the US Dollar Index went down because of the unexpected strength in EUR/USD and since the Euro makes up 57.6% of the US Dollar Index then this has caused the US Dollar Index to go down and usually Gold would go up so you could also have a Trade Plan of going Long Gold. I will also link the 5 minute chart on Gold so you can see in pictures with your own eyes my strategy which ALWAYS WORKS !!! That is one of my edges.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5

With regard to Gold based on volume there seemed to be two large interventions at the start of the Europe open and the Dow open. When I find a review of that I will post it later here by editing and adding.

I found if not an explanation that makes sense at least a review of the insanity which could only be Planned Intervention by a powerful source.

Snippet: You have to wonder "who" stepped in at the European open and panic-bid with both hands and feet for Euros and US and EU equities...? As one trader mocked earlier, Brexit took 3 days to recover its losses, Trump took 3 hours, and Italy took 3 minutes.

Snippet:
Finally we leave you with this...from Rhino Trading's Michael Block who offers the following perspective on why European stocks spiked the most since the Trump victory last month (largely a black swan event), courtesy of Barron's:

…[Apparently] the pattern of fading a potential crisis and then scrambling to cover and get long when everyone takes a breath and realizes that this time is not the apocalypse either still holds more than ever. I can’t justify any of this. The lesson investors and traders are getting is that everything is a buying opportunity and you need to not miss the boat. Brexit? Bullish. Trump winning the election? Bullish. Italy saying no to the referendum and the Prime Minister handing in his resignation? Bullish. Heck, all we need is a coup d’etat in India and the entire Belgian banking system to go kablooey and the S&P 500 will be at 3,000 by Christmas Eve.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...ops+to+zero%29

1. Dec 6, 2016 9:19am

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,061 Posts | Online Now

Morning Thoughts - Daily

I will do this on a daily basis. I usually wake up around 5:00 AM notwithstanding checking in for an hour or so at the Europe Equity open at 3:00 AM EST in case there are trades that I want to do before going back to bed for a few hours. I read and review many things between the hours of 5 AM to 8 AM and so today there are 3 important matters that I share here.

(1) The vote in Austria on Sunday was a vote against the left yet not for the extreme right at this moment. The trend still continues for social change.

(2) The referendum results in Italy left great uncertainty and the oldest bank in the world in Italy I have read this morning might get a bailout as soon as this weekend.

The ECB meets on Thursday and the fallout concerning the Euro has only just begun so for the moment I would not go long EUR/USD and will stay with my 3 short positions.

(3) The MOST IMPORTANT thought that I share here this morning is the uncertainty as to who will be the 45TH President of THE USA. What ? Are you serious ? Yes , I am and as it becomes a main topic in the MSM, great uncertainty will hit the markets in my opinion. I will now link the article that I read that put me there.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...rs-to-join-him

Snippet: Donald Trump has already lost one of his electoral votes, and there are indications that a number of additional electors may be prepared to abandon him. Prior to the election, I warned my readers that we would not officially know who the next president would be until December 19th. On that Monday, the 538 members of the Electoral College will gather in their state capitals in all 50 states to formally elect the next president. Throughout U.S. history electors have voted according to the will of the people more than 99 percent of the time, but in 2016 there is a concerted effort to persuade Republican electors not to vote for Trump. If 37 Republican electors can be convinced to vote for someone other than Trump, that would keep Trump under the 270 vote threshold needed to win and it would throw the election into the House of Representatives. Most people had considered this to be a longshot, but on Monday a Republican elector named Christopher Suprun publicly announced in the New York Times that he will not cast his vote for Donald Trump. On the other side, there are at least 8 Democratic electors that have already publicly pledged to switch their votes from Hillary Clinton to a compromise Republican alternative to Trump.

So we already know that there will be quite a few “faithless electors” on December 19th. The question will be whether or not they are able to rally enough electors to their cause to deny Donald Trump the presidency.

What Christopher Suprun has chosen to do is really unprecedented in the history of modern American politics. Not only has he publicly announced that he is not voting for Trump, he is also attempting to convince other Republican electors to join him. He explained his reasoning for this move in his editorial for the New York Times…

Fifteen years ago, as a firefighter, I was part of the response to the Sept. 11 attacks against our nation. That attack and this year’s election may seem unrelated, but for me the relationship becomes clearer every day.

George W. Bush is an imperfect man, but he led us through the tragic days following the attacks. His leadership showed that America was a great nation. That was also the last time I remember the nation united. I watch Mr. Trump fail to unite America and drive a wedge between us.

Mr. Trump goes out of his way to attack the cast of “Saturday Night Live” for bias. He tweets day and night, but waited two days to offer sympathy to the Ohio State community after an attack there. He does not encourage civil discourse, but chooses to stoke fear and create outrage.

Of course this movement started long before Suprun made his surprise announcement. A group of eight Democratic “Hamilton electors” have been lobbying for Republican electors to reject Trump and join them in agreeing on a compromise Republican alternative for quite some time. And according to Politico, those associated with this group have been in active contact with the Clinton campaign…

Advocates of the long-shot bid to turn the Electoral College against Donald Trump have been in contact with close allies of Hillary Clinton, according to multiple sources familiar with the discussions, but the Clinton camp — and Clinton herself — have declined to weigh in on the merits of the plan.

Clinton’s team and the Democratic National Committee have steadfastly refused to endorse the efforts spearheaded by a group of electors in Colorado and Washington state. But, as with the ongoing recounts initiated by Green Party nominee Jill Stein, the Clinton team has not categorically rejected them, leaving the collection of mainly Democratic electors to push forward with no explicit public support from the failed Democratic nominee or any other prominent party leaders.
Of course the Clinton team is desperate to do something to salvage this election. Clinton’s lead in the popular vote has now grown to more than 2.5 million, and it might end up around 3 million by the time all the votes have been counted.

There are Clinton advocates that are arguing that the American people clearly chose Hillary Clinton to be the next president and that therefore the Electoral College should choose to reject Trump on December 19th. But for Christopher Suprun the popular vote doesn’t really matter. To him, it is all about “the good of the country”. Here is more from his editorial in the New York Times…

The election of the next president is not yet a done deal. Electors of conscience can still do the right thing for the good of the country. Presidential electors have the legal right and a constitutional duty to vote their conscience. I believe electors should unify behind a Republican alternative, an honorable and qualified man or woman such as Gov. John Kasich of Ohio. I pray my fellow electors will do their job and join with me in discovering who that person should be.

Fifteen years ago, I swore an oath to defend my country and Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic. On Dec. 19, I will do it again.

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4. Dec 6, 2016 12:29pm | Edited at 1:18pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,062 Posts | Online Now

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1. Dec 6, 2016 12:35pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,063 Posts | Online Now

Psychological Challenges of Speculative Trading

An Extract from the book of “Beat the Odds in Forex Trading” by Igor Toshchakov, published by Wiley

A successful trader’s career mainly depends on his or her psychological stability in stressful situations, which are common in the process of trading. Theoretical knowledge can be acquired by reading professional literature; practical skills and experience are acquired in the process of actual trading. The most difficult process is adjusting psychological stress, because in real life it is impossible to completely eliminate the stress factor influencing human activity. Underestimating the stress factor could play a mean trick on trader and even completely block their abilities to make reasonable decisions in real trading situations. The psychological stress of those trading in the FOREX (and any other) market is extremely high. Traders must work under permanent psychological pressure, making decisions in highly unpredictable and uncertain market situations.

Each trader goes through mistakes, failures, and losses in his or her own way, in accord with his or her personality and temper. Some might blame their failure on market’s “wrong behaviour”, which didn’t comply with the trader’s brilliant forecast and caused the failure of the magnificently planned speculative combination. Others blame themselves and their own inabilities to make right decisions in situations, which afterwards seem to be simple. It is an interesting fact that, in hindsight, traders usually find the decision that should have been made at the lost critical moment and can reasonably prove their point of view. Why can they find the right decision so easily and quickly in hindsight? Was the trader unable to do so at the right moment? I don’t think it can be simply explained by looking at yesterday’s situation from today’s point of view. I do not think it can be explained by the fact that classical technical analysis at allows for multiple explanations of almost any market situation. It is always possible to find an appropriate basic explanation for any market shift after the event takes place. In the heat of the moment, however, the trader was influence by stress, and that stress caused the error. This is proven by the fact that most novice traders show exceptionally good (and even phenomenal) results trading dummy accounts but can’t even come near those result when trading with real money.

Being permanently under stress, a trader can often make insufficiently considered, impulsive, and therefore, wrong decisions that result in losses or premature liquidation of profitable position, that is, in lost profit. Sometimes, after a few successive failures with various trades, traders become fearful of the market. They are in as state of psychological stupor, and even a simple market situation may cause panic. They cannot overcome their emotions or soberly evaluate the current situation, and they are unable to make any decision – reasonable or otherwise. In many cases when the market situation shifts against the trader’s position, they can only passively watch the growth of their losses, because they are unable to make any decision at all. Often, after the market stabilizes and traders have the opportunity to calmly analyse daily diagrams of currency fluctuations, they come to the conclusion that the main cause of failure was not the lack of knowledge or training but their own emotions. However, the situation cannot be reversed. Time has passed, money has been lost, even everything should be begun again.

Another problem that causes severe and even catastrophic consequences is the trader’s wilful thinking. In this case, treaders are sure that their forecast of market trends is solely correct. They feel the market cannot and should not give any surprises. They do not consider other options that could be helpful or they think of other options in a vague and uncertain form. Sometimes, traders consider a market shift against their positions. They acquire new contracts at a lower price in the hope that the market situation will come back, and all the positions will become highly profitable. Afterwards, as the situation worsens, they will be able to come out of the market without serious losses. Being sire they are right, traders lose the ability to critically evaluate the condition of the market and accordingly their own position in the market. In this case, they consider only those basic and technical features that justify their wishful thinking, and they discard the contradicting features. This wishful thinking costs them dearly and can lead to psychological frustration. The market’s “wrong behaviour” not only deprives traders of a certain amount of money and often ruins their trading account, but also undermines their self-esteem and their hopes of being a winner in the trading battle.

After such a loss, traders blame themselves, repeatedly going through the details of the unsuccessful trade. They blame the market for the “wrong behaviour” or themselves for errors in what then seems an absolutely clear situation. Sometimes, the trader-market relationship takes the form of a vendetta. Traders consider the market as their personal enemy, treat it in an unfriendly way (even with hate) and dream of immediate revenge. Doing so, they miss the fact ht at they are essentially blaming nature for changing sunny weather to rain. It is very important to be prepared beforehand for this change. Traders should always have close at hand one or few options in case of sudden change of the situation/weather, so that their foresight assures their good time or good profit.

The third main psychological problem is trader uncertainty, especially when traders are inexperienced in abilities and skills – specifically about each market position they hold. Immediately after each position is opened and a money contract is bought, treaders start questioning their choices. This is revealed most vividly in the case of a moderately active market at the moment of fluctuations close to the opening price of the position. Any moment (even insignificant) against their position causes traders to have an irresistible desire to sell the recently acquired contract to limit losses, until it is too late and the market does not shift too far away from their position opening price. On the other hand, an insignificant market shift in the desirable direction causes the same desire to eliminate the position, until it provides for any (even tiny) profit and before this profit does not turn into losses.

Sacred and trouble traders rush and race about. They open and liquidate their positions too often, and experience many small losses and gains. Within a short period of time, they turn intermittently into bulls or bears. As a result, they suffer losses on a dealer’s spread and/or commissions when there were no significant market changes, and all the market fluctuations were no more than just regular market “noise”. Such losses are typical for beginners and individual traders with small investment capital or little experience and insufficiently psychological preparation.

Not uncommon are cases of traders’ impulsive decisions on trading, without any plans or serious preliminary market analysis. The position is opened under an impulsive, invalid emotional reaction. Often, it can be explained by traders’ fear of losing a brilliant opportunity to earn money they think is being offered by the market at that moment. I have witnessed these attempts to jump onto the last carriage of a departing train, and such attempts have ruined a lot of traders. Many traders cannot calmly watch any kind of market movements. Some of my students have confirmed this reality. If they have no positions at the moment of more or less significant market movement, they consider it as a lost opportunity to gain profit. This can inflict a serious shock to them.

When they have no position, they seem unable to realize that each market movement can be considered both ways, and the opposite situation can quite possibly develop. Statistics show that, at each market movement, the chances to lose are much higher than to profit. How does it happen that reasonable people (who in everyday life, without any emotion, can watch a bank casher counting other people’s money) consider the fact of market movement as a threat to their own pockets? Why is other people’s money in the hands of a bank cashier not considered as a lost profit, whereas capital shift on the market and the corresponding quote fluctuations are causes of negative emotions? I think the answer is in the illusory simplicity of business itself, which is considered by many people as a good and simple opportunity to earn a lot of easy money. Similar notions are widely spread among novice currency traders. The soon traders abandon such ideas, the sooner they become professionally efficient traders.

The most difficult problem for every trader (regardless of their experiences) is to learn as quickly as possible how to recover quickly from losses, which are inevitable in this business. At the same time, they must learn to handle shocks and psychological damage inflicted by the losses, because there situations could negatively influence their future work.

The losses themselves and the fear of losing, both of which permanently torture traders, negatively influence their ability to make reasonable decisions in a complicated situation. These factors also undermine traders’ ability to follow their own rules about trade strategies and systems.

I have become personally acquainted with hundreds of traders and have watched their activities. I have taught many students, and have had my own experience as a trader at various steps of my career in the currency market. Therefore, I have come to the conclusion that the main causes of trader failures in speculative operations in the FOREX marker are without a doubt those associated with psychological trauma – the inability to control their own emotions and to find an adequate way to fight stress.

1. Dec 6, 2016 1:31pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,064 Posts | Online Now

Forex Market Hours

www.forexmarkethours.com

also

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/fxmarkethours/

There are at least two reasons why you should track the major forex market trading hours:

 

1. The first hour after a major market opens is considered very important and often indicates how the session might develop.
2. In periods when market 'trading hours' overlap, liquidity tends to increase because more traders are participating in the FX market.

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4. Dec 8, 2016 7:57am

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,065 Posts | Online Now

Good Morning

The ECB does not change rates however it extends Asset Purchases until March 2017 however it TAPERS from 80 Billion to 60 Billion. This will be a surprise to most market observers and the main reaction comes between 8:30 AM EST and 9:00 AM EST when Draghi answers questions at the press conference. Stay Tuned !!

UPDATE: ECB extends QE program until December 2017, will drop purchases to 60 billion euros a month from April

5 Minute Chart of EUR/USD

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=m5

1. Dec 9, 2016 7:17am | Edited at 7:42am

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,066 Posts | Online Now

Good Morning - Morning Thoughts

I want to explain to all forex traders how fundamental knowledge and understanding my Money Flow Method allows you to set up your Trade Plan.

This article explains some of the issues about how and why the Dow is in irrational exuberance land as the Maestro, former FED chairman Greenspan has pointed out in the past.

It is also called animal spirits. There are two main reasons in my opinion why the Dow continues to head higher towards 20,000. One is the larger traders are probably waiting for the end of TAX SELLING so that they can postpone their profits into next year. The other reason appears to be that the SHEEP, the general public has jumped on the TRUMP TRAIN. We all now how that ends in the game of Musical Chairs.

How are these thoughts and opinions tied together to develop your Trade Plan ?

Here is what I do. I know that when the Dow reverses the MONEY FLOWS out of the Dow into other Asset Classes. There always is MONEY flowing into the safe trade currency of USD/JPY and so knowing this in advance my Trade Plan that I am focused on is to short USD/JPY because I now know the DIRECTION of the Short Term Trend. NO TECHNICAL INDICATOR can tell me this however of course I use technical indicators to decide my Entry and Exit.

I then use my PERFECTED Risk Management Strategy to limit my risks to NO MORE than 5% of my Trading Capital.

I would be glad to teach anyone here how to use this proven Money Flow Method as I have offered here before. I will as I have done with my Initial $50,000 Demo Account continue to follow this Trade Plan and post the results here on my Money Flow Thread.


Benjamin



http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...-2000-and-2007

Snippet:
Are We Being Set Up For A Crash? Stocks Hit A Level Only Seen During The Bubbles Of 1929, 2000 And 2007

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/w...icons/user.gif By Michael Snyder, on December 8th, 2016.

Right now, the U.S. stock market is surging, with the Dow leaping toward 20,000, a number rooted in fiscal insanity and delusional expectations. There are no fundamentals that support a 20,000 Dow, but fundamentals have long since ceased to matter in a financial world hyperventilating on debt fumes while hallucinating about utopian economic models that will soon prove to generate fools instead of real wealth.


Today I’m going on the record with a prediction that I’ll offer with near absolute certainty: The rigged markets that now seem to defy gravity will be deliberately and destructively imploded under President Trump for all the obvious reasons. There will be financial chaos like we’ve never seen before: Investors leaping off tall buildings, banks declaring extended “holidays” that freeze transactions, and California pensioners slitting their wrists after they discover their promised pension funds were just vaporized by incompetent bureaucrats.

On the other hand, there are others that believe that Trump is just walking into a very bad situation and that a crash would be inevitable no matter who was president.

History tells us that there is no possible way that stock prices can stay at this irrational level indefinitely. But for now a wave of optimism is sweeping the nation, and many of those that are caught up in it will get seriously angry with you if you try to inject a dose of reality into the conversation.

But like I said yesterday, let’s hope that the optimists are correct. A survey that was just taken of 600 business executives found that 62 percent of them were optimistic about the U.S. economy over the next 12 months.

Incredibly, that number was sitting at just 38 percent the previous quarter.
For the moment, business leaders seem to be quite thrilled that we have a business executive in the White House.

1. Dec 9, 2016 8:14pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,067 Posts | Online Now

This article from Zerohedge will summarize the serious position all of are in at this moment. You cannot stop it however being aware of it takes you out of the category of sheep or uninformed citizens of the world.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:
“There’s no non-messy way out of this,” said Luke Ellis, chief executive of Man Group, one of the world’s biggest hedge-fund firms with $80.7 billion in assets. “There’s two versions” of how this ends, he added. Either central banks could move to so-called ‘helicopter money,’ where they buy debt from the government, which then spends the proceeds or gives it to the population to spend. This “for a few years looks golden then leads to hyperinflation,” he said. Or the speed at which money circulates within the economy could grind to a halt. “Then you effectively have a barter economy,” he said.

In a series of exclusive interviews with the Journal, hedge-fund executives overseeing around $280 billion in total highlighted a range of problems created by quantitative easing. The problems they highlight are precisely those that QE was designed to solve, and are exactly the same problems we warned about since the 2009, for which we have been repeatedly branded some variation of "fake news." Now the skepticism has become mainstream.

This is what, according to the hedge fund managers interviewed by the WSJ, will happen:

Damage to economic growth
Rather than kick-starting growth, quantitative easing may do the reverse. Some managers fear it distorts financial markets and undermines capitalism. That system relies on profit-hungry investors to differentiate between strong and weak companies—funding the strong while letting the weak die. QE, say some managers, doesn’t differentiate.

For instance, the Bank of England is buying the debt of firms it deems make “a material contribution” to the U.K. economy. That has led some investment banks and companies to create new debt especially for it to buy. The ECB has bought €48.2 billion ($51.2 billion) of corporate debt since June, but the hoped-for private-sector investment hasn’t materialized.

“What does a market do? It’s a voting mechanism,” said Michael Hintze, billionaire founder of hedge fund CQS, which runs around $12 billion in assets. “Instead you’ve got this 800-pound gorilla out there who’s hovering up assets. “There’s a misallocation of capital and an opportunity cost to the real economy,” added Mr. Hintze, whose portfolio is up 30% this year, ranking it one of the world’s top-performing hedge funds. “It means GDP is not growing as much as it might.”
Some put it even more strongly. “It’s definitely destructive of economic growth,” said Crispin Odey, founder of Odey Asset Management, which runs $8.2 billion in assets.

“Capitalism dies a death,” said Mr. Odey, who sees government policy as the main factor influencing markets. His fund, a top performer after the credit crisis, is down sharply this year because of being too bearish. “It’s all policy. It’s the Kremlin. And I’m in the gulags.”
* * *
Damage to society
In her speech to the governing Conservative Party conference in October, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May spoke of “some bad side effects” from quantitative easing as people with assets got richer while those without them suffered. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has said low rates have robbed savers. Those side effects include “envy and distress” within society, “as people think ‘I can’t get out of where I am,’” said Andrew McCaffery, group head of solutions at Aberdeen Asset Management, who looks after $170 billion in assets.

Ultralow interest rates mean the large part of the population with few financial assets begins to despair of how to generate income to fund retirement, he said.
“People see a developing black hole,” he said. This “increases the sense of there being little to lose for many” people.
Andrew Law, chief executive of New York-based Caxton Associates LP, which runs around $7.8 billion, said quantitative easing averted economic depression after the financial crisis.

But he added: “The losers of QE are society, and democracy is also a loser, because central banks are not publicly elected officials.”
* * *

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4. Dec 9, 2016 8:25pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,068 Posts | Online Now

A Very Important Article To Explain The Situation With American US Dollars.

https://dailyreckoning.com/emerging-...y+Reckoning%29

Snippet:

An Emerging Dearth of Dollars

Uh-oh: The mainstream is starting to fret about the great dollar shortage.
With the help of Jim Rickards, weve been delving into the paradox of a dollar shortage periodically since September. The paradox is this: While the Federal Reserve blew up its balance sheet by $3.4 trillion between 20082015, the world created new dollar-denominated debt faster than the Fed created money, as Jim explains it. Indeed, more than $60 trillion of new dollar-denominated debt came into existence during this time.

Its all good as long as the dollar is weak. But relative to a large basket of foreign currencies, the dollar is approaching its strongest level at any time in the last two decades
https://dailyreckoning.com/wp-conten...22-768x491.jpg
When the dollar goes up, it directly impairs the risk-taking capacities of banks and investors alike, writes Hyun Song Shin, chief of research at the Bank for International Settlements.

As you might know, the BIS is the central bank for central banks. Jim Rickards says unlike many central bankers, the BIS folks are pretty sharp cookies. Mr. Shin, according to The New York Times, is concerned the dollars rise will worsen what he refers to as an emerging dearth of dollars, which could bring back memories of the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. Back then, a global rush into dollars caused short-term borrowing rates to skyrocket, forcing hedge funds to shut down and banks to fail.

The dollar shortage is even getting the attention of mainstream strategists like Paul Christopher at Wells Fargo Advisors: In the type of global economy we live in, [Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen] has to be careful about the dollar increasing too much, creating dollar shortages and liquidity problems as a result.

Alas, Fed leadership is clueless. Quelle surprise. And so they plow ahead with plans to raise its benchmark fed funds rate next Wednesday which will have the effect of further strengthening the dollar.

As we pointed out last month, Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer said he was reasonably confident foreign economies could absorb the impact of that move: The dollar would strengthen further, yes, but it wouldnt necessarily tank the value of foreign currencies.

Jim Rickards called this wishful thinking.
Lets go back to that $60 trillion of dollar-denominated debt thats come into being since 2009. As Jims pointed out for the last two years, about $9 trillion of that total was issued by companies in emerging markets; those companies need a weak dollar to keep the cost of servicing that debt from spiraling out of control. But the dollars been rising relentlessly since mid-2014.

Also on shaky ground is $5 trillion in debt issued by U.S. energy producers. It was bad enough most of that debt was issued on the assumption of $80-plus oil prices into perpetuity. (They’re $51.45 this morning.) But this is worse: “A strong dollar implies lower oil prices,” Jim reminds us, “despite OPEC’s machinations.”

Reminder: A strong dollar is the only reason gold is so weak right now. The bid is down to $1,161 this morning, retesting a 10-month low.
“A strong dollar implies a lower dollar price for gold,” says Jim. “A weak dollar implies a higher dollar price for gold.” Look no further than the chart above. The emerging dearth of dollar’s all-time low came in August 2011. Gold touched its all-time high within a matter of weeks.

“Further evidence,” says Jim, “comes from the fact that gold is performing much better when measured in Japanese yen, Chinese yuan and euros. In other words, the recent price action is not really a gold story; it’s a dollar story.”

Not that it makes gold’s recent swoon easier to take if you transact mostly in dollars, but that’s the story.

“In the short run (one–three months) the strong dollar, weak gold story may continue,” Jim allows.

“Beyond that, the strong dollar will strangle the U.S. economy with imported deflation and weaker exports.” Oh, and it’ll worsen the great dollar shortage and threaten to detonate a large portion of that $60 trillion in dollar-denominated debt we mentioned.

Then the Fed will have to reverse course. Jim figures by next spring. Gold holders, keep the faith. “Gold is in the doldrums now, but it is poised for a strong comeback when central bankers confront the unsustainable reality of higher real rates on dollar debt.”
Regards,

Dave Gonigam

Monthly Chart on US Dollar Index
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m1

Have a LOOK at it and the article will be easier to follow and understand.

1. Dec 9, 2016 8:41pm | Edited at 8:52pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,069 Posts | Online Now

The Wrap Up - Nightly


https://srsroccoreport.com/market-in...le-in-history/



Snippet:
Investors have forsaken all reason, logic and wisdom by rushing into the biggest stock and financial bubble in history. Even some precious metals investors are selling their gold and jumping into the markets hoping to make big profits as President Trump takes over the White house in six weeks.

Unfortunately, the worst time to jump into a market is when everyone else is doing the same thing. Of course, this doesnt mean the Dow Jones Index wont continue higher for some time, but the fundamentals of the economy continue to rot from the inside out.

No one really notices this as automobile dealers are now selling cars with zero interest rates, nothing down and no payment for 6 months. If this is the sort of business model the automobile industry has to resort to in order to continue sales, we are in big trouble.

Then we have these few headlines pointing to a worsening U.S. economy:
Restaurant Industry, Leading Indicator of US Economy Sours, Bankruptcies Pile up
ESPN Loses A Record 621,000 Subscribers In One Month
Greenspan: Western World Headed for a State of Disaster
The Housing Market Is Waving A Red Flag
These are just some of the many headlines pointing to an economy and stock market that is not heading towards better times. It was interesting to read that ESPN lost 621,000 subscribers in one month. However, ESPN has lost over 15 million subscribers in the past five years.

Market Insanity Pushes The Dow Jones Up To Tulip Mania Heights
I wrote about the 17th century Holland Tulip Bubble in a previous article:
Nothing has changed since the 17th century Tulip Bubble that also destroyed the ability of people to act rationally. At the peak during the Holland Tulip Mania, some tulips were selling for 10 times the annual income of a skilled craftsman (Source: wikipedia)

According to Wikipedia about the Tulip Mania:
. the growing popularity of tulips in the early 17th century caught the attention of the entire nation; the population, even to its lowest dregs, embarked in the tulip trade.[6] By 1635, a sale of 40 bulbs for 100,000 florins (also known as Dutch guilders) was recorded. By way of comparison, a ton of butter cost around 100 florins, a skilled laborer might earn 150 florins a year, and eight fat swine cost 240 florins.[6] (According to the International Institute of Social History, one florin had the purchasing power of 10.28 in 2002.[35])

https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-conten...lbs-Bubble.png

As we can see from the chart, investors lose all economic and financial sense when asset prices start to go insane. Instead of using some restraint and wisdom, they drop all reason and jump in on the rising bandwagon.
Again, the worst time to get into a market is when everyone else is jumping in with both feet. I have updated my chart showing the increase in U.S. Debt vs the Dow Jones Index since the first quarter of 1980:

https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-conten...1980-Today.png

In 36 years, the Dow Jones Index and the U.S. Debt have increased at the same exact ratio 23 TIMES. This is no mere coincidence. Investors who have parked their hard-earned money into market have placed their bet on stocks that are backed by nearly $20 trillion in U.S. debt.
In 1929, right before the Great Depression hit, the U.S. debt was $17 billion versus a $105 billion Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Thus, the U.S. debt accounted for 17% of the U.S. GDP. If we fast forward to today, it is a much different picture.

The U.S. Debt is now 105% of the U.S. GDP. Basically, the U.S. economy is powered debt… and a lot of it. President Elect Trump may have grand ideas for the U.S. economy, however his hands will be tied by the massive debt and terrible energy predicament overhanging the country.
According to the sources I have read, nearly 10% of U.S. oil production is being produced by either bankrupt or financial challenged energy companies. I also mentioned in a prior article that the largest oil company in the U.S., ExxonMobil, had to borrow $8 billion in 2015 to pay dividends or CAPEX. Number two Chevron had to borrow even more at $18 billion to pay dividends and CAPEX in 2015.

This is not a good sign for a healthy market to invest in.

Unfortunately, this will not stop more precious metals investors from selling their gold to play in the Dow Jones Casino. The reason to hold onto precious metals is to protect oneself when the FAN FINALLY HITS THE COW EXCREMENT.

Who sells their homeowner or automobile insurance to play in the stock market? This is how insane the mentally of investors has become.

FINAL COMMENTS: You will NEVER read about these matters in the Mainstream Media. As part of my trading skills I decided 10 years ago that I needed to know and understand all these associated matters in order to understand what was really happening behind the scenes.

This is how I was able to develop My Money Flow Method over the last 5 years and it is why I am able to generate a ROI (Return On Investment) of 10% a month.
There of course is much more to achieving these results. There is NO TRADER whether trading Equities or Commodities or Forex that can succeed unless they have the DISCIPLINE to CONTROL first their EGO. (The Market Is Always Right) Then control their GREED and finally most important their FEAR !!!

Good Evening an enjoy your weekend.

Benjamin

1. Dec 10, 2016 4:31pm | Edited at 5:26pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,070 Posts | Online Now

Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Hi Benjamin: I may suggest that you share your knowledge publicly to allow readers to exchange with you and build some relationship with them. I think through this way, everyone is winning and you don't have the workload of assessing everyday how your trainees did. Personally, I can't afford one hour everyday, but I'm willing to learn at my pace. This said, I would thank you for your offer.
I will post tomorrow how to go about opening a Demo Account with FXCM UK and if you would like to tell posters about this thread then of course he would make the thread more interesting for everyone. That is one of the reasons that I encourage people to register with Forex Factory so that they can post.

THE WHOLE POINT OF THIS THREAD IS TO HELP TRADERS LEARN FROM A PROFESSIONAL TRADER HOW TO TRADE AND WITHOUT RISK FINANCIALLY SHOW HOW TO LEARN THE RIGHTS HABITS where it is accepted that 95% of all Forex Currency Traders lose. You can learn how to get into the 5% category only if you can learn to first CONTROL your Ego , Greed and FEAR !!!

It is quite easy to open a $50,000 US Dollars Demo Account with FXCM UK. Just log on and click on the link to open a $50,000 US Funds Practice account and set it to currency in US Dollars and you get your User Name and your Password. DO NOT DO ANY TRADES until I explain to you the 16 Symbols that you need to set up on your Trading Platform. You can post questions on this thread. I will answer promptly. Thank You.

1. Post 82
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Dec 11, 2016 2:36pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,071 Posts | Online Now

Now for those that want to make money trading Forex , I will start to tie the FUNDAMENTAL INFORMATION to how you can make money trading Forex which is what my trading course is all about and what is stated in the title of my thread.

http://dollarcollapse.com/stock-pric...-prices-crash/

Snippet:
2007 All Over Again, Part 6: Stock Valuations Enter Crash Territory
December 11, 2016

The Trump Christmas stock market rally has taken valuations beyond a point that in the past has signaled trouble, which in turn has generated a lot of cautionary press like the following:

Market indicator hits extreme levels last seen before plunges in 1929, 2000 and 2008
(CNBC) While the S&P 500 is reaching all-time highs on optimism over Donald Trumps economic agenda, some Wall Street strategists are increasingly worried about a widely followed valuation measure thats reached levels that preceded most of the major market crashes of the last 100 years.

The cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE), a valuation measure created by economist Robert Shiller now stands over 27 and has been exceeded only in the 1929 mania, the 2000 tech mania and the 2007 housing and stock bubble, Alan Newman wrote in his Stock Market Crosscurrents letter at the end of November.
Newman said even if the markets earnings increase by 10 percent under Trumps policies were still dealing with the same picture, overvaluation on a very grand scale.
http://i2.wp.com/dollarcollapse.com/...c-16.jpg?w=550
The Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) is calculated using price divided by the indexs average historical 10-year earnings, adjusted for inflation. Yale economics professor Robert Shillers research found future 10-year stock market returns were negatively correlated to high CAPE ratio readings on a relative basis. He won the Nobel Prize in economics in 2013 for his work on stock market inefficiency and valuations.

Other academics agreed the current extreme CAPE ratio of 27.7 is a worrying sign for future returns versus bonds.

Only when CAPE is very high, say, CAPE is in the upper half of the tenth decile (CAPE higher than 27.6), future 10-year stock returns, on average, are lower than those on 10-year U.S. Treasurys, Valentin Dimitrov and Prem C. Jain wrote in paper titled Shillers CAPE: Market Timing and Risk on Nov. 17.
Even based on the more common price-earnings ratio, the market looks rich. The S&P 500s P/E based on earnings of the last 12 months is 18.9, the highest in more than 12 years, according to FactSet.

U.S. valuations start off as being high both on a historical basis and also on a peer group. Certainly based on the Shiller PE, the equity market seems expensive, Jefferies chief global equity strategist Sean Darby wrote on Nov. 29.

The above chart requires a bit of interpretation, mainly because of that spike in 1999 which seems to imply a much higher ceiling for stock valuations. It probably doesnt, because of the uniquely delusional nature of the tech stock bubble. That market was driven by newly-minted dot-coms and related companies that in many cases had minimal or no earnings, so prices werent related to profits. In other words, you cant calculate a price/earnings ratio if there are no earnings.
Eyeballs that is, the number of people visiting at a dot-coms website had temporarily replaced traditional valuation measures in the hearts of speculators. With disastrous results.

Todays market, in contrast, is made up of companies with actual earnings, so it might be safe to discount 1999 and use the rest of the chart for comparison. In which case current equity prices look extremely dangerous.

Comments from Benjaminis: Now that it is clearer where I am heading with my fundamental knowledge which I obtain through hours and hours each day of reading I can start to apply it to a Trade Plan.

Right now I have 2 almost certain WIN guaranteed Trade Plans.

My first one is to short USD/JPY from where it is today until it reaches 105.00 then I will review my options. The second one is go long Gold and Silver until Gold reaches $1325 US and Silver reaches $18 US.

Now it will be easier to explain my Money Flow Method. I know from my 10 year old career in trading currencies that as the value of one Asset Class changes it affects another. For example we now have Risk Off because of the Trump Factor which now has been in place since November 9, 2016. On Wednesday , December 14, 2016 that Factor may change. That is when Janet Yellen announces the FED rate decision at 2:00 PM. Will we have buy the rumor and sell the news ? Regardless of the decision I will be ready to FOLLOW THE MONEY FLOW using proper Risk Management. While technical indicators are very important and part of my strategy when PERCEPTION turns to REALITY you can ignore Support and Resistance short term until new Support and Resistance is set. Two recent examples are the British Pound and the Euro. We of course can add USD/JPY because it is a safe haven currency and money ALWAYS flows there on Risk Off as it also flows short term to the US Bonds whether they are the 2 Year or the 5 Year or the 10 Year or the 30 Year US Bonds.

Since the November 8, elections the Fixed Income or BOND MARKETS of the world have suffered real losses of OVER TWO TRILLION Dollars and the funds not all of course has flowed into the equity markets of the world. When the EQUITY markets revert to more realistic levels then we will see a REVERSAL.
Knowing this I have 100% guarantee of which Asset Classes to buy or sell. THAT IS MY EDGE !!!

It is common knowledge that 95% of all currency traders specifically the retail traders lose their money. There is a reason of course. I took over 3 years to learn my trade only Demo Trading and that was a great learning experience for me since FEAR was eliminated and Greed was not really much of any issue since I could not spend my demo dollars on the nice things in life. :-)

The EGO in my case was build up since over 75% of all my forex trades were winning ones and I averaged a ROI or return on demo investment of $50,000 US dollars of a minimum of 5% each and every month during the last year during 2005 of my demo trading. I would NEVER trade real funds unless my starting capital was $25,000 US and there is a reason behind that.

Risk Management is the MOST IMPORTANT part of my teaching. I am still looking for a maximum of 6 forex traders that would take 30 days to learn free of charge my Money Flow Method with proper Risk Management.

FREE OFFER AT NO COST OTHER THAN YOUR TIME !!!

I will teach the first 6 traders that sign up here how to earn 5% NET a month or ROI of 5%

CONDITIONS:

(1) You must have been trading for at least one year.
(2) Your methods have not been profitable.
(3) You will invest one hour a day of your time.
(4) You will open up a $50,000 US Funds Demo Account with FXCM UK
(5) You will email me your user name and password so that I can check your results daily.
(6) I will give you 30 days of my time and knowledge and at the end of the 30 days I will give you a grade out of 100 HOWEVER your real Grade will be if you show NET PROFIT or ROI of 5% or $2500.00.


The first 6 qualified persons that sign up and agree to the above conditions will be given my Private Email address so we can communicate. All QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS WILL BE PUBLISHED ON THIS THREAD IN ORDER TO HAVE FULL DISCLOSURE.

Thank You and have a Great Trading Day !!!

1. Dec 11, 2016 4:07pm | Edited at 4:17pm

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,072 Posts | Online Now

VERY IMPORTANT TO FOLLOW:

http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds...ear-bond-yield

As the 10 Year US Bonds go down in value the Yields go up and do the work of the FED whatever the FED does.

Look what happened since November 9, 2016 since the US Presidential elections.

http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds...ear-bond-yield

STRONG BUY ? Not if the Dow reverses with Risk Off. Look at the USD/JPY chart.

http://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy

Hello all traders not registered to post on Forex Factory. It would be very helpful to have questions on I am sure this new subject matter so please register and post any questions that you may have. The only way to learn is to ask questions. Thanks for your interest.

Chart from Finviz for USD/JPY

https://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDJPY&tf=h1

US Dollar Index Finviz Chart

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=h1

The Euro makes up 57.6% of the index. This is a FUTURES chart not the Spot Price.

Benjaminis

1. Post 99
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Dec 12, 2016 7:54am

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,073 Posts | Online Now

Morning Thoughts - Daily

Good Morning

When I woke up this morning I saw that USD/JPY had gone higher. As high as 116.12. Why ? The equity markets were not open fully in Europe or in North America. one of the KEYS to making money trading Forex is to distinguish between PERCEPTION and REALITY. As a better explanation of that is the FED rate decision to come on December 14, 2016. Because of the election of President Elect , Donald J. Trump the markets have embraced PERCEPTION and NOT for sure REALITY. Therefore my Trade Plan concerning USD/JPY was affected overnight for the following reason. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...ops+to+zero%29

Snippet:
The Yuan tumbled above 6.90 for the dollar, and will likely continue to face pressure, as Trump tying Taiwan policy to trade deals with China raises the risk of trade conflict. According to Bloomberg. domestic liquidity would stay tight to support yuan, which is negative for stock market. The recent crackdown on insurers’ acquisitions in listed companies has raised concern that insurance fund inflows to equities may slow until authorities clarify rules. As a result, investors are taking profits as good news is largely priced in and regular position adjustments start before year- end. However, analysts note that as interest rates are more likely to rise in China, and property prices decline, investors will still favor stocks in 2017.

Japanese shares rose, with the Nikkei 225 Stock Average recouping losses for this year as the yen slid to a 10-month low against the dollar before the Federal Reserve sets interest rates this week. The equity gauge advanced for a fifth day, its longest rally in two weeks. The Topix index fluctuated between a gain of 1.2 percent and a decline of 0.3 Japanese stocks have staged a dramatic rebound in the second half, riding on a global recovery in risk appetite, with investors betting that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will boost economic stimulus.

The Nikkei and Topix have climbed more than 10% over the past two months, entering a bull market in November after rising by more than 20 percent from their respective 2016 lows set in June. “Markets are moving ahead quite a bit based on expectations, which may be the case until January,” Masahiro Ichikawa, a senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui told Bloomberg “Policy expectations for the Trump administration are basically a tailwind for cyclical shares, and export-reliant businesses will continue see positive momentum.”

Now that WE know what happened overnight then I can adjust my thinking with NEW FUNDAMENTAL INFORMATION in the GEOPOLITICAL area of currency trading. Because of my expertise and because of extraordinary circumstances and ALSO because my open positions are only 6 of SHORT USD/JPY so I have only used $6000 US Dollars of my total trading capital so even though I have a drawdown right now of $ 7854.01 US along with my margin of the $6000 US for my 6 open positions then I am in no danger of a margin call.

THAT IS THE KEY TO RISK MANAGEMENT and why Retail Traders lose 95% of the time.
Reason one is they mainly use technical indicators and we can see with this real life situation how a FUNDAMENTAL FACT based on one interview with Mike Wallace of Fox News can change REALITY to PERCEPTION. Reason two is most retail traders for obvious reason trade with too little trading funds.

When I started trading Real Funds during 2006 at times I would trade with as little as $10,000 US Funds and what would happen using my proven formula I could only have 2 positions open at one time or 20% of my Forex trading capital. Of course being human and not being patient and thinking too much I sometimes would add a third position and if the MARKET went against my IMAGINARY BRILLIANCE then I would have a Margin Call. The markets are always RIGHT until they are not. Look at where the Dow is now at an ALL TIME HIGH against all logic and Common Sense.

If I was teaching anyone reading my thread here and I knew that they were listening then I would tell them to short one position of USD/JPY and one position only until I reviewed the fallout short term with a One China Policy. Also when you enter your trade using the $50,000 FXCM UK demo platform your STOP LOSS must be entered at a loss of 100 PIPS.

Now if you are only trading with Real Funds of LESS than $10,000 US your STOP LOSS using a Trade Plan with a maximum loss of 5% would require your STOP LOSS to be entered in the case of having $10,000 US Dollars real funds under management of 60 PIPS or $600 therefore limiting your ability to be flexible.

Apply this to most Retail Traders probably trading with $5000 US funds or less then it is now 100% clear why 95% of ALL retail traders cannot make it into the 5% category. I sincerely hope that anyone reading my morning thoughts this morning understand the significance of what was explained here this morning mainly concerning RISK MANAGEMENT.

I also encourage anyone reading this thread on Money Flow Method and Risk Management that are not registered with Forex Factory to register so that I have the opportunity in real time to answer any of the questions that surely you must have about my Forex Strategy.

Have a great trading day and know what you do not know so that you can improve your trading skills.


Benjaminis

1. Dec 12, 2016 10:09pm POST 110 !!!

1. BenjaminIs
2. | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 4,074 Posts | Online Now

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT: I have 3 FX Traders ready to open their Demo Account with FXCM UK and I will repost some of the information for them here.

(4) You will open up a $50,000 US Funds Demo Account with FXCM UK
(5) You will email me your user name and password so that I can check your results daily.
(6) I will give you 30 days of my time and knowledge and at the end of the 30 days I will give you a grade out of 100 HOWEVER your real Grade will be if you show NET PROFIT or ROI of 5% or $2500.00.


The first 6 qualified persons that sign up and agree to the above conditions will be given my Private Email address so we can communicate. All QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS WILL BE PUBLISHED ON THIS THREAD IN ORDER TO HAVE FULL DISCLOSURE.

FULL DISCLOSURE: I used to be an Introducing Broker with FXCM in New York back during 2007 and 2008. I had a real funds account for a client located in Hong Kong and I was managing $125,000 US Funds. I have no business arrangement with either FXCM in New York or FXCM UK in London.

I moved all my business to Ava Trade in Ireland and I am an introducing Broker with them however I have recently decided to bring all my business back to Canada so I am not active with Ava Trade at the moment. I am working on putting up a website early next year during 2017 and I will have a 24 hour by subscription service charging no more than $50.00 US a month for full access. I used to use the services of Trade The News in order to have full voice news during the 24 hour FX trading day. I today entered into an understanding with Ransquak to use their live platform under a subscription contract which my corporation will use.

If any of the 6 initial persons here take my 30 day trading course and go through the 30 day period then when my website is up and running next year the 6 here will get a lifetime subscription at no cost. I plan to trade for at least 10 more years since I really love what I do and enjoy sharing my knowledge

Good Morning Forex Traders

I had started this thread on Forex Factory two years ago today. Many world events and personal events have taken place over these last two years.

This morning I went through my first 110 posts on this thread and shared the ones that will go on my new corporate website. I have worked very hard over the last two years working on my business and seeing where the world was going. This is the best and worst of times to try to trade and make money in the Forex business.

Unless you have special skills needed then you will not be able to enjoy trading Forex and of course the ultimate objective is to make money.

I have started to bring everything up to date on my 247 pages of material that has been posted here. Each day I will continue to review the 247 pages and once everything is at this thread that needs to be it will all be transferred over to my commercial website. My target is for early next year.

I am going to publish contact information in the near future.

If you have any interest or any questions then please post them here and they will be answered.

I also will start to trade the FXCM UK Demo Account of $50,000 US Dollars and do screen shots so everyone that has a real interest in becoming a successful Forex trader can see my results. My target for December is profits of $10,000 US Dollars by December 31, 2018.

That will work out to Return on Investment of 20% and of course with the industry standard at the HIGHEST end being 5% then the goal and results of 20% will confirm that my method of trading Forex professionally works.

Failure is not an option so once I have the account at $60,000 US Dollars then I will stop trading for the month of December 2018.

I first want to talk about having an EDGE. Fundamentals by themselves is not an EDGE. However using Money Flow between Asset Classes from here on I will include in my basket of 100% of what a winning Forex Trader needs. I will not refer to it as a fundamental anymore since new people coming to this thread put my method as including Money Flow as a fundamental which it actually is however not in the same way as most people understand Fundamentals.

This week we will get to see Non Farm Payroll (N F P) and as any experienced Fundamental Forex Trader knows it usually is a fantasy number created by the BLS however next to a FED rate announcement it is the one number that can move markets hundreds of PIPS in seconds and minutes.

Whatever the number Trillions of Fiat Currencies and other Asset Classes will start to change values as we "SEE" the Money Flow. That is why I call it my EDGE and once you know it and understand it well then it becomes your EDGE as well.

Here are the 5 important things that any Forex Trader that belongs to the minority of constant profitable Forex Traders , which I have named , The 5% Club needs to have. Of course in my opinion, I would think that very few Professional Forex Traders use the EDGE. Of course when you know about it then anyone can use it.

Each of the following five important things which I have given a weighting of 20% to each makes up what a profitable Forex Trader needs to have in order of IMPORTANCE.

(1) The ability of the Forex Trader to control their FEAR and their GREED and their EGO. Perhaps the last one is the most important of the three since the MARKET is always right. Using Money Flow puts you with the Market instead of against it as your Forex Account keeps losing the value in it.

The reason that I teach Forex Traders whether experienced or new to Forex trading with a $50,000 US Dollars Demo Account is because that is how I learned my trade starting during 2003. By learning to trade with $50,000 US Dollars in Demo Funds, then I had no FEAR or GREED. However after 3 years of Forex Demo Trading I surely had EGO since month in and month out my Return On Investment (ROI) was constantly over 10% a month or 120% a year.

(2) Money Flow. I have now explained why.

(3) Risk Management. That is next to Money Flow the KEY element of my Forex Trading since when you blow your account whether you are trading with too little capital as the majority of Retail Traders are or because of a Black Swan event such as Brexit or Europe banking issue such as we have in Italy at the moment or the Swiss Central Bank as they did a few years ago say one thing and then next moment announce a major change in their policy and 500 PIP movements happen in seconds. The absolute MINIMUM Forex Account that I would and could trade with would be $10,000 US Dollars. I would be glad to answer questions as to why although most will understand. What if you do not have $10,000 US Dollars trade with ? Prove to yourself that you have the skills and the knowledge to trade with profits then you will have no problems finding funds to trade Forex with. After my 3 years of Forex Demo Trading, I went out and found 6 clients that first deposited initially $50,000 US Dollars and within 3 months along with the profits that I was generating in my first three months of Forex trading from March 2006 to June 2006, I was managing well over $100,000 US Dollars.

(4) Technical Indicators which includes all parts of it whether Support and Resistance or Supply and Demand or Pivot Points. I use when I do daily trades the 5 Minute Charts along with the 15 Minute Charts and 30 Minute Charts to go along with the 4 Hour Charts. When you toss a rock in the river the first ripple is the 5 Minute Chart and then on to the 30 Minute and the two others. I use other indicators aside from the standard ones which are SAR and Fractal and Awesome Oscillator. The most important one that I look at when I enter into a Forex Trade is Support and Resistance so if I am going long or short I enter either at the TOP or BOTTOM of the Chart that I am using. Of course my Risk Management protects me from Human Errors or EGO.

(5) Fundamentals. I am fairly sure most of those reading my words today or whenever they read it might be surprised how a Forex Trader such as myself who posts a tremendous amount of research can list fundamentals as number (5) in order of importance. It is the research that allows me to clearly understand the difference between PERCEPTION (Markets) and REALITY (Research) Then I know what will most likely happen in the future and I am better prepared to deal with it.

I hope that this post of my daily Morning Thoughts answers some of your questions both for the 12 Forex Traders using the $50,000 US Funds Demo account with FXCM UK or anyone else. There is no reason that an experienced trader reading this thread or anyone else to not open a $50,000 US Dollars FXCM UK account so they can use the knowledge that we share here to learn new things and try them without having any FEAR of LOSS !!!

As always , I look forward to feedback and thoughts and anything that you care to share with us on our Thread.

1. Post 1,984
2. Cleanup
3. Quote
4. Feb 11, 2017 1:14am

1. https://cdn-assets.faireconomy.media...ar496005_1.gif KeepCalmfx
2. | Joined Oct 2016 | Status: Member | 518 Posts

Good day

Hope everyone is doing well.

Benjamin, congratulation your thread has reached 100 pages.