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Sweet, sweet Oil

  • #481
  • Dec 3, 2018 12:51am Dec 3, 2018 12:51am
The gap up was related to the G20 Trump and Xi meeting which caused all trade sensitive currencies against the dollar to gap up. It was just coincidence that you were long because both were long for very different reasons. One of you was long because of the Iranian ship and the other long because oil was predicted to be at its low. If the G20 meeting had failed, it would have gapped the other way and you both would be either stopped out or holding onto a loss. It was luck in other words. Well done nonetheless.
  • #482
  • Dec 3, 2018 12:54am Dec 3, 2018 12:54am
Eeee-h! Give it a little credit !
  • #483
  • Dec 3, 2018 1:01am Dec 3, 2018 1:01am
Quoting EcoTrader
The gap up was related to the G20 Trump and Xi meeting which caused all trade sensitive currencies against the dollar to gap up. It was just coincidence that you were long because both were long for very different reasons. One of you was long because of the Iranian ship and the other long because oil was predicted to be at its low. If the G20 meeting had failed, it would have gapped the other way and you both would be either stopped out or holding onto a loss. It was luck in other words. Well done nonetheless.
Nope, I went long when retailers start dumping oil on late Friday prior to closing, thats when institutions start to accumulate at the low of the day... I was expecting it to bounce back a little, but it went up much more... Great trade...Cash in the Bank

Now, I dont think anything is tradable, I am staying out for few days... be back on Wednesday after Opec Meeting
  • #484
  • Dec 3, 2018 1:21am Dec 3, 2018 1:21am
Quoting michaelpelly
{quote} Oil gapped up. 1:0 score for me in price predictions for this week :-). Your turn .
100 percent luck. Every aspect of that gap was attributed to the G20. You basically held onto a trade into the G20 without knowing what the outcome would be. If the G20 had failed, you'd be nursing losses. It also had everything to do with trade talks not oil.

1:0 luck score to you
  • #485
  • Dec 3, 2018 1:28am Dec 3, 2018 1:28am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} 100 percent luck. Every aspect of that gap was attributed to the G20. You basically held onto a trade into the G20 without knowing what the outcome would be. If the G20 had failed, you'd be nursing losses. It also had everything to do with trade talks not oil. 1:0 luck score to you
I had a little bit of information that Saudis are eager to Cut Supply, and Russians too, therefore, I bought towards the end of the Friday session., main source of news is www.oilprice.com ... Its not pure luck...
  • #486
  • Dec 3, 2018 1:36am Dec 3, 2018 1:36am
Quoting brr001
{quote} I had a little bit of information that Saudis are eager to Cut Supply, and Russians too, therefore, I bought towards the end of the Friday session., main source of news is www.oilprice.com ... Its not pure luck...
Odd why you never mentioned that before. You were adamantly pushing the Iranian ship as the source for oil going through the roof. Anyway, as long as you are happy with the profit all is good.
  • #487
  • Dec 3, 2018 1:39am Dec 3, 2018 1:39am
Quoting michaelpelly
{quote} Oil gapped up. 1:0 score for me in price predictions for this week :-). Your turn .

If we are keeping score. I predicted the gap up in currencies on Friday. That's a gap up prediction not just a directional prediction. Do I get 2 points for that?





https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post11751029
  • #488
  • Dec 3, 2018 1:57am Dec 3, 2018 1:57am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} If we are keeping score. I predicted the gap up in currencies on Friday. That's a gap up prediction not just a directional prediction. Do I get 2 points for that? https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post11751029
This thread is about oil . Currencies in other thread . Separate score!
  • #489
  • Dec 3, 2018 2:05am Dec 3, 2018 2:05am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Odd why you never mentioned that before. You were adamantly pushing the Iranian ship as the source for oil going through the roof. Anyway, as long as you are happy with the profit all is good.
Iranian Ship news came on Saturday, it was just an added Bonus
  • #490
  • Dec 3, 2018 2:26am Dec 3, 2018 2:26am
Quoting michaelpelly
{quote} This thread is about oil . Currencies in other thread . Separate score!
okay fair play
  • #491
  • Dec 3, 2018 11:33am Dec 3, 2018 11:33am
Oil seems like getting effected by the news of Qatar quitting OPEC, and the stock markets are giving up on Trump deals..... scary
  • #492
  • Dec 3, 2018 12:49pm Dec 3, 2018 12:49pm
Quoting brr001
Oil seems like getting effected by the news of Qatar quitting OPEC, and the stock markets are giving up on Trump deals..... scary
...Also, there was the news about Alberta cutting its supply daily until the spring.

Right now price support is at $52, could stay there and then possibly continue to move up if oil cuts continue.
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If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
  • #493
  • Dec 3, 2018 2:25pm Dec 3, 2018 2:25pm
Quoting warrensapp
{quote} ...Also, there was the news about Alberta cutting its supply daily until the spring. Right now price support is at $52, could stay there and then possibly continue to move up if oil cuts continue. {image}
There is a disagreement between two ministers of Russia and Saudi, Russian Minister is only committing unto 150K b/d cut, which is not enough, and Qatar is out...so, its a bit messy now...
  • #494
  • Dec 3, 2018 10:11pm Dec 3, 2018 10:11pm
Should the role of OPEC be marginalized due to exiting of Qatar and the dilemma that exist between Saudi and Trump, there is a big risk of Opec meeting to be a non-event and no decision to be reached....I dont have much hope on the Opec meeting... After this huge one leg decline in Oil, it needs, second and third legs down before it goes up... what do you guys think...Saudis dont have bargaining power any more, and Russia is happy to stay status quo... So, forget about hawkish tone coming out of the meeting, more likely they will say, we will wait and see until January 2019
  • #495
  • Dec 3, 2018 10:38pm Dec 3, 2018 10:38pm
interesting read: US and China already disagree on their landmark trade deal


https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/03/p...ntl/index.html

Lets close the gap today ...
  • #496
  • Dec 3, 2018 10:52pm Dec 3, 2018 10:52pm
Asia shares fall as lift from US-China trade truce ends.. SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Asian shares fell on Tuesday as a relief rally petered out amid rising doubts over whether China and the United States will be able to resolve trade differences.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g...KBN1O303D?il=0
  • #497
  • Edited 2:33am Dec 4, 2018 1:59am | Edited 2:33am
This article explains the whole thing whats going on in the oil market. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-...-Projects.html

basically, a trade truce between China and US will increase the utilization capacity for LNG, hence, the demand for LNG will increase. On the other hand, Qatar quits Opec, because they know the demand and price for LNG will be on increase and that's where they should be focusing on since they are the largest producer and exporter for LNG. Since, LNG and OIL have a negative correlation, increase in demand and price in LNG will push the prices down for OIL...literally, the Era of Oil is over and its time now for Natural Gas to emerge, and due to over supply, over production (Additional production in Shale Oil).. and huge inventory reserve in OIL, as well as competition from Shale Oil... in my opinion we could be seeing OIL back in the area of $20 sooner than later, and its a wild guess of course but it makes sense....Therefore, i think Sell OIL and Buy Natural Gas
  • #498
  • Dec 16, 2018 2:22am Dec 16, 2018 2:22am
Quoting brr001
This article explains the whole thing whats going on in the oil market. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-...-Projects.html basically, a trade truce between China and US will increase the utilization capacity for LNG, hence, the demand for LNG will increase. On the other hand, Qatar quits Opec, because they know the demand and price for LNG will be on increase and that's where they should be focusing on since they are the largest producer and exporter for LNG. Since, LNG and OIL have a negative...
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...nsolidate.html
  • #499
  • Dec 18, 2018 3:50am Dec 18, 2018 3:50am
What happened to oil going through the roof. I guess it was luck after all.
  • #500
  • Dec 18, 2018 4:28am Dec 18, 2018 4:28am
Quoting EcoTrader
What happened to oil going through the roof. I guess it was luck after all.
Heh, it’s actually quite OK. I cleared some longs using hedging to dampen the loss. Out of the profit for the last 4 weeks - only 30% loss of it. So quite on positive and ready to buy it cheaper. Game is simple and profitable.
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