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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #9,081
  • Edited 11:39pm Dec 1, 2018 11:16pm | Edited 11:39pm
Quoting TerryDawe
{quote} The time to trade this pair was November 1st when the Boss swing low was confirmed and closed through the high of the October Big Boss candle (marked with the green line). I know that the BB swing low does not get confirmed until the end of November but there was a 290 pip move since the end of October. Price now at an area of resistance. {image}

Thanks Terry,

Could you explain what is your thought process to keep the trade holding when it gives Doji candle (November 2nd) marked by my black arrow.

Generally When PRICE crossed Strat Shadow and confirmed Boss Swing low its has very good chances to go higher. However that Doji happend at minor Resistance area at worker chart(black line)

What MY thought process is this==> The big boys buyers who came to the market (after BigBoss Hammer and Boss swing low) are more powerful than sellers in that doji candle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcaddaily.PNG Size: 33 KB


Much appreciate
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #9,082
  • Dec 1, 2018 11:27pm Dec 1, 2018 11:27pm
Quoting Rub
Without giving a trading signal, what does everyone see on EURNZD and EURAUD? What do you think has got my attention?
EURNZD

Looks like its heading towards 1.62000
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZDmicroDaily.png Size: 35 KB


EURAUD

The next target seams to be
1.53000
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDmicroDaily.png Size: 43 KB



Just my view
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #9,083
  • Dec 2, 2018 4:08am Dec 2, 2018 4:08am
Quoting Rub
Without giving a trading signal, what does everyone see on EURNZD and EURAUD? What do you think has got my attention?
the big boss candle maybe ?
  • #9,084
  • Dec 2, 2018 7:51am Dec 2, 2018 7:51am
Quoting Suran
{quote} Thanks Terry, Could you explain what is your thought process to keep the trade holding when it gives Doji candle (November 2nd) marked by my black arrow. Generally When PRICE crossed Strat Shadow and confirmed Boss Swing low its has very good chances to go higher. However that Doji happend at minor Resistance area at worker chart(black line) What MY thought process is this==> The big boys buyers who came to the market (after BigBoss Hammer and Boss swing low) are more powerful than sellers in that doji candle. {image} Much appreciate
After such a large bullish candle it is not uncommon to expect a pause, so in this case if you drop to the H4, it can be seen that price only pulled back to the average and really was only resting and not showing any signs of reversing.
If the daily candle following the one to which you are referring is bearish and closes back within the shadow, there is a higher probability of a reversal. So in this case the shadow is acting as strong support.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCADH4.png Size: 46 KB
  • #9,085
  • Dec 2, 2018 8:04am Dec 2, 2018 8:04am
Quoting HappyTrend
{quote} Yes, but that is trading BIG BOSS and i think the "maxium" es trading the Boss Swing. So we are in a trade since 1 month ago, now im question is.. now that is confirmed the chances of the price continue up is higher?
Sorry I am not clear on what is meant by "maxium" es.
  • #9,086
  • Dec 2, 2018 8:07am Dec 2, 2018 8:07am
EURNZD, M5 Trend Trading Strategy

A small loss on short EURNZD on Friday.

What I did not see during the trade:
Price was retesting the previous broken Support - now as Resistance. And could not close above it. No need to exit the trade.
I was focusing too much on the upmoving TL and that bullish candle inside the Strat Shadow.

Some more details inside the image (SL placement etc.).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD, 5M.png Size: 150 KB
Accept the risk!
  • #9,087
  • Dec 2, 2018 8:11am Dec 2, 2018 8:11am
Quoting Rub
Without giving a trading signal, what does everyone see on EURNZD and EURAUD? What do you think has got my attention?
Hi Rub
EURAUD, What I see is BEEB penetrated (closed) through botom off WCC and with this continuation of down trend - worker aligned with B, importan that B also closed below 1.67ish...

I mised an oportunity on 21th November when BEEB happened in direction of trend, confluence with 20 ema, pullback to strat shadow and retrace to broken dynamic SR - trendline, probably cause I still didn't clear my (wrong) mind proces from my past (buying low and selling high countertrend when I thought every bounce from SR will go strait up......).
It's amazing how bad habits learned in the past limiting me to conquere something new. I am sure for someone who just start to trading and come to this thread and follow the rulles will be much faster succesfull in doing this right.

Similair on EURNZD. I agree with Suranga regarding targets, I am not sure price will go straight there. I am not in the trade but as if understand PASR we can trade trend PASR sell stop order bellow last BEEB candle, stop above the high of that candle and target before 1,62 support.
.......just IMHO.........

regards

Igor
  • #9,088
  • Dec 2, 2018 8:12am Dec 2, 2018 8:12am
Quoting strat
{quote} Well done and excellent progress on THE PATH, Augustus I did not place more attention on Big Boss and Boss candles, or placed too much attention on Worker candles, so even the slightest movement against me on Worker would make me think that it will not follow the Big Boss and Boss. Now I trust higher TFs much more with putting less weight on Worker candles when in trade. It took a while but it FINALLY sunk in. What did you learn from it taking so long that you can pass on to others? Thank you for sharing, Augustus
I believe it took so long because I did not trust my decisions. I would always try to get a confirmation somewhere else, be it other people posting here or a small daily move in my direction. However, I noticed that my progress stopped and I have begun to go in circles - find a pair to trade, put trade on, wait for a couple of days, get a slightly different Worker candle than I wanted, bailed on the trade, watched it later go to my predicted direction. I got really mad at myself and my inability to change. I just found a good setup, put on the trade and decided to look more at the Boss candles rather than the Worker candles. While Worker candles are valuable in our trading, I only then understood where was I tripping over and over again - I looked ONLY at the Worker candles, forgetting that Big Boys play the long-term Big Boss and Boss candles and it might take a while while the train turns around.

So there are couple of things that we can learn from my bad trading before:
- Trust your OWN ideas.
- Do not expect the PRICE to move how YOU want it immediately.
- Patience, patience, patience!
- Never ever underestimate the Higher Timeframes. That's where the money is at. Worker is just the tool to jump in and out of the train. One candle in the opposite direction does not mean the Big Boys are finished, market is dynamic and will "breathe".

Back to the drawing board and The Path.
  • #9,089
  • Dec 2, 2018 8:15am Dec 2, 2018 8:15am
Quoting TerryDawe
{quote} After such a large bullish candle it is not uncommon to expect a pause, so in this case if you drop to the H4, it can be seen that price only pulled back to the average and really was only resting and not showing any signs of reversing. If the daily candle following the one to which you are referring is bearish and closes back within the shadow, there is a higher probability of a reversal. So in this case the shadow is acting as strong support. {image}
Yes Terry got it. Thanks alot.
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #9,090
  • Dec 2, 2018 8:17am Dec 2, 2018 8:17am
Quoting Suran
{quote} EURNZD Looks like its heading towards 1.62000 {image} EURAUD The next target seams to be 1.53000 {image} Just my view
Hi Suranga, I noticed that on my charts 200 EMA dissapear when crossing strat shadow, I see it on your charts clearly, does anybody know how can I fix this?
Regards
Igor
  • #9,091
  • Dec 2, 2018 8:29am Dec 2, 2018 8:29am
Quoting Francl
{quote} Hi Suranga, I noticed that on my charts 200 EMA dissapear when crossing strat shadow, I see it on your charts clearly, does anybody know how can I fix this? Regards Igor
I think If you put 200MA before the Strat Shadow then 200MA disapears..

So first put strat shadow and set up settings of Strat shadow and then put the MA's.

And then save the template

let me know if you understands..

Suranga
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #9,092
  • Edited 8:59am Dec 2, 2018 8:31am | Edited 8:59am
Quoting Rub
Without giving a trading signal, what does everyone see on EURNZD and EURAUD? What do you think has got my attention?
Current price structure on EURNZD seems to support moving lower with 1.6240 area first target and if this area is breached, next stop at 1.5700 area.
Current price structure on EURAUD seems to support moving lower with 1.5280 area first target and if this area is breached, next stop at 1.5100 area.
Obviously these moves will not go straight there so opportunities may present themselves on retraces to value areas.

Just my opinion and I don't suggest that I can tell anyone where the market is going as it will go where it will go. Just need to try to follow the signs and signals of those driving price and follow as well as we can.


Regarding what has got your attention, I would think it is the close below the shadow with strong bearish candles on the Boss in both pairs.

Regards
Terry
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZDWeekly.png Size: 59 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDWeekly.png Size: 62 KB
  • #9,093
  • Dec 2, 2018 8:38am Dec 2, 2018 8:38am
Quoting Rub
Without giving a trading signal, what does everyone see on EURNZD and EURAUD? What do you think has got my attention?
My take on EURNZD:
BB: big red candle, very strong bearish movement compared to all the previous months candles. Down.
B: below Strat Shadow. Strong BEEB. Close below EMA200. Down.
W: Strong bearish candle, closing below previous SR of 1.6575. Very strong downtrend.

Next target would be BRN 1.64.

The problem I see: Worker candle is very big (182 pips). Price is far away from the EMA20. Next SR is only 42 Pips away. Kinda bad Risk to Reward. For a conservative SL, I would place the stop above the latest swing high - which would be at about 1.68 - a SL greater 350 Pips.

Looks like a trade, that should be taken on the Boss. Not on the Worker.
Accept the risk!
  • #9,094
  • Dec 2, 2018 9:05am Dec 2, 2018 9:05am
Quoting Scrumy
EURNZD, M5 Trend Trading Strategy A small loss on short EURNZD on Friday. What I did not see during the trade: Price was retesting the previous broken Support - now as Resistance. And could not close above it. No need to exit the trade. I was focusing too much on the upmoving TL and that bullish candle inside the Strat Shadow. Some more details inside the image (SL placement etc.). {image}
Your second trend line is just PRICE pullback to the shadow.And its swing trap. See where PRICE relative to 200.When PRICE crossed 200 it normally runs long way. On top of everything.. PRICE doing LL , LH structure..

Where you exit was the place where big boys add-on to there shorts..with discount..

Seems like your little people took control. you were more afraid to take a loss.

Just my thoughts
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #9,095
  • Dec 2, 2018 9:29am Dec 2, 2018 9:29am
Quoting Suran
{quote} I think If you put 200MA before the Strat Shadow then 200MA disapears.. So first put strat shadow and set up settings of Strat shadow and then put the MA's. And then save the template let me know if you understands.. Suranga
Yes it works, thanks a lot!
Igor
  • #9,096
  • Dec 2, 2018 11:26am Dec 2, 2018 11:26am
PASR - The Path

Just want to share my progress on THE PATH.

I discovered this thread on 30th Sept 2018. Since then I read, read and read.

Now, about 2 months later I learnt a lot.
When I compare the trades that I took at the beginning and the trades that I take now it is a big improvement. But still A LOT to improve.

Stuff from my old alter ego:

  1. Having a messy, fully bloated screen https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post11638782
  2. Entering trades on candles that had no momentum, no valid PASR set up https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post11643908 (just 1 month ago).
  3. Entering trades in consolidation https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...7#post11652007


I trade with real money, cause otherwise my little people won't talk to me. I am still not trading my full position size (1% risk), just between 1/30 to 1/6 of it (I change it on a weekly basis - not quite sure if that makes sense). Microlots didn't work as well, as it is just too small. The little people won't talk then either . And the most important: I am NOT profitable.

Progress on the "old" thread

My progress so far on the first thread: around page 220. I sometimes like posts, but I do save them as bookmarks as well. This way I can add little sentences to the bookmark's title like "Strat on Trendlines", "Grim on Book of Al Brooks", "elitejtes on Inside Bars" etc. which is not possible by just liking a post. This makes it easier to categorize the specific post.

Stuff to notice in the old Thread (till about page 220):

  1. in the old Thread, Strat now starts thinking about lower timeframes. Up to page 220 there were still only Daily and upwards. Quite interesting, also to see the strategy in general evolve.
  2. no mention of Strat Shadow - the two EMA's used are 20 and 50.
  3. no Weekly Control Candles
  4. just stress free PASR
  5. Wave Cycles are discussed a lot
  6. Fibonacci used a lot

My Index document

I also collect all important articles in one big "My Index" document. Collecting specific posts about a topic.

Topics in this document are:

  1. Strat's Arsenal

    1. Strat Shadow
    2. Power of Time Frames
    3. Weekly Control Candle
    4. Support/Resistance
    5. Bond Hammer/Bond Shooting Star
    6. Periscope/Depth Gauge


  2. The Strategy
  3. Basic PASR + Examples
  4. Swing PASR + Examples
  5. Trend Trading PASR + Examples (M5 , M5 Yomi's Way, M15)
  6. Other Stuff

    1. Money Management
    2. Trade Management
    3. Wicks
    4. Psychology
    5. Motivational Posts
    6. Things to consider


  7. Lessons Learned (from my own forum posts)

M5 Checklist

For M5 I have build myself a little checklist to consider before every trade.

M5 checklist:

  1. Sawtooth structure?
  2. Confirmed swing high/low?
  3. No consolidation?
  4. Set Up candle has momentum?
  5. Strat Shadow's slope in good up-/downtrend?
  6. Price close to EMA20?
  7. No News ahead?


It is very useful, because sometimes I catch myself being trigger "early". If I can answer min. 5 out of 7 questions with YES, then I take the trade.

What I am still missing is such a checklist for the long term, stress free trades. And I should also have such a checklist in place for being IN a trade. I saw it on my recent EURNZD example (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post11757265), that I could not think clearly and FEAR took over.

Backtesting

I have strengthen my confidence this week with backtesting (multi time frame! - therefore not in MT4) week 47 on the M5 Trend Trading Strategy. I will have to do this in future also for the long term trades. But ONE STEP AT A TIME - Jordin Sparks, 2007. I have positive results, entering full positions with 1% risk. I do not consider the time of the trade - in real life I won't be able to take every trade I take during backtests, cause I would be sleeping at that moment.

This is very important to be confident about the strategy and eliminating all the questions that come to ones mind when placing a trade. I am now able to SEE the trades, instead of searching for them.

It seems that backtesting is way more profitable than my real trading. Little people? Too much distraction from day job when placing real trades? Backtesting is always just one pair at a time, real trading has 10 pairs to watch?

Trade observation

At first I was very overwhelmed, how I should watch Strat's Top 10 Pairs at the same time. But now I got used to it. I have them open on a separate Profile in my MT4 and watch them simultaneously.

Trade preservation

As I take a screenshot of every trade before and after and also posting comments on the trade itself I am able to go through each and every trade and analyze them again. This is very important for improvement.

My Goals

  1. read, read, read. And store the information in "My Index" document. Some posts have been marked as TODO - I will need to check them later.

     

    1. with the current pace, I will finish the first thread in about 8 months
    2. the new thread will take about 7 month as well (to work it out in detail - till then this (NEW) thread will also have about 300 pages more than it has now)


  2. create IN TRADE checklist
  3. get better in SEEING BEYONG THE CANDLES
  4. Backtest M5 further
  5. Begin backtesting Worker, also to understand what it means to "pull the trigger" when Worker aligns itself with Big Boss and Boss
  6. Learn to add on to positions, first during backtests - later in real trades
  7. How to use FF search correctly (If I search for e.g. "Strat Shadow" I get search results that just don't match?!)
  8. ...and with all the above becoming profitable in the next 18 months (May 2020)

Do you see something to add? Do I miss an important topic? How did you progress/do you progress on THE PATH? How do you backtest? Do you have a specific checklist? I'd like to hear your thoughts on this one. Thanks.

Wish you all great progress on THE PATH.

Accept the risk!
  • #9,097
  • Dec 2, 2018 11:44am Dec 2, 2018 11:44am
Quoting Scrumy
EURNZD, M5 Trend Trading Strategy A small loss on short EURNZD on Friday. What I did not see during the trade: Price was retesting the previous broken Support - now as Resistance. And could not close above it. No need to exit the trade. I was focusing too much on the upmoving TL and that bullish candle inside the Strat Shadow. Some more details inside the image (SL placement etc.). {image}
you were trying to avoid a loss on a clear trend. as you can see how that ended later the same day

your trade had more than enough protection ,since you can exit at a small loss (which you should accept the moment you put the trade on) if price moves further against the strat shadow
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EN trend trading.JPG Size: 197 KB

great trade.bad exit
well at least you didnt lose a fortune just a few pennies
this trade has much to learn from.

when in doubt , move to M15 and take a better look. and if you still dont like it then just close the trade. there are always more trades coming your way if you are patient

ps I had a few days of vacation and been busy drinking raki. I hope everyone had a nice time
  • #9,098
  • Dec 2, 2018 12:16pm Dec 2, 2018 12:16pm
Quoting bistolis
{quote} you were trying to avoid a loss on a clear trend. as you can see how that ended later the same day your trade had more than enough protection ,since you can exit at a small loss (which you should accept the moment you put the trade on) if price moves further against the strat shadow {image} great trade.bad exit well at least you didnt lose a fortune just a few pennies this trade has much to learn from. when in doubt , move to M15 and take a better look. and if you still dont like it then just close the trade. there are always more...
Thanks bistolis. Great advice to check M15 as well. Haven't done that before. But also on M5 there wouldn't have been a reason to exit - PRICE was just testing the new Resistance. Yes, the trade would have been very nice (Would have, should have, could have ) - but, the next trade will come .

Edit P.S. don't drink and trade. Seems you had a good time

Edit 2: I Can See Clearly Now (Jimmy Cliff, 1993) that on M15 the Price was still below the Strat Shadow and wasn't able to close inside of it - again, thanks for the advice going to M15.
Accept the risk!
  • #9,099
  • Dec 2, 2018 2:01pm Dec 2, 2018 2:01pm
Quoting TerryDawe
{quote} Sorry I am not clear on what is meant by "maxium" es.
I mean, that SWING BOSS TRADING is the maximium timeframe that we can trade -> THINKING <- in that trading a BIG BOSS SWING is too long... and Strat always says BigBoss is only for Reference Support Resistance and see where the BigBoss People are going... But if u see Big Boss Chart and Boss Chart only.. is the same thing... I mean, we can trade the BigBoss Swing too.
  • #9,100
  • Dec 2, 2018 3:41pm Dec 2, 2018 3:41pm
Quoting HappyTrend
{quote} I mean, that SWING BOSS TRADING is the maximium timeframe that we can trade -> THINKING <- in that trading a BIG BOSS SWING is too long... and Strat always says BigBoss is only for Reference Support Resistance and see where the BigBoss People are going... But if u see Big Boss Chart and Boss Chart only.. is the same thing... I mean, we can trade the BigBoss Swing too.
Okay, thanks for the clarification
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