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Sweet, sweet Oil

  • #461
  • Dec 2, 2018 2:04am Dec 2, 2018 2:04am
Quoting EcoTrader
Some things to keep in mind is November, December, January, and February, oil is seasonally weak. Also while opec talk of more production cuts, USA has become the global leader in oil production thanks to shale. I think we will see more weakness until the fundamentals change or there is a political event that puts pressure on production. {image}
It's already priced in, now worries. Try to look for something more sophisticated
  • #462
  • Dec 2, 2018 3:31am Dec 2, 2018 3:31am
From oilprice.com, a reputable source I have used for trading.

Crude oil has been in freefall, with both Brent and WTI having lost around a third since hitting highs in early October. There are some demand related worries involved as trade wars threaten to slow global growth, but the biggest reasons for the drop are supply related. A couple of months ago, those highs were achieved in anticipation of a disruption to global supply as the Trump administration’s abandonment of the Iran nuclear deal with Iran and the resulting sanctions took effect.
Since then though, a few things have become clear. Firstly, U.S. production has been stepped up by more than imagined. In addition, the Saudis increased their output to help offset the expected loss from Iran but, most importantly in that context, that loss doesn’t look likely to materialize. Despite a lot of tough talk, the sanctions on Iranian oil have been rendered ineffective by the granting of exceptions to a whole host of customer countries. The net effect has been that after a tight market for a few years as the OPEC+ agreement to cut output held and was extended, we are back to a glut.
Little wonder then that as Brent has dropped below $60/ barrel and WTI breached the $50-mark, talk has surfaced this week of a possible re-examination of cuts. The Russians, the largest of the non-OPEC signatories to the deal, and the Saudis, the de facto leaders of the cartel, were reported to be in discussions focused on the timing and scope of new cuts. That would suggest that supply restrictions are coming for sure, and just the details need to be worked out.
Given those rumors, you might expect crude to have reversed course and jumped in such a supply-sensitive market. As you can see, however, that hasn’t happened. The drop in WTI futures was halted just below $50, but the bounce was anemic and short-lived.

Whether it comes out of the G20 summit this weekend or not, that looks to be the most likely outcome. From a trader’s perspective though, it is not something worth betting on. As mentioned, any upward reaction in oil would be limited in the event of such an announcement, but if one doesn’t come and talks break down, the current mood in the market would ensure another sharp drop. Better to wait. If there is a deal there will be plenty of room to the upside and time to get long, but the downside risk makes acting in advance an unappealing proposition.

—------------------

From the G20 this weekend:

Russia's Putin says no hard figures on possible oil output cuts. "Yes, we have an agreement to prolong our accords," Putin told reporters on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires. "There is no final deal on volumes but we together with Saudi Arabia will do it. And whatever is the final figure, we agreed to monitor the market situation and react to it quickly."

There is an opec meeting on the 6th - 7th December where they will likely discus the numbers which will ultimately affect the reaction in the market.
  • #463
  • Dec 2, 2018 5:30am Dec 2, 2018 5:30am
Quoting EcoTrader
From oilprice.com, a reputable source I have used for trading. Crude oil has been in freefall, with both Brent and WTI having lost around a third since hitting highs in early October. There are some demand related worries involved as trade wars threaten to slow global growth, but the biggest reasons for the drop are supply related. A couple of months ago, those highs were achieved in anticipation of a disruption to global supply as the Trump administration’s abandonment of the Iran nuclear deal with Iran and the resulting sanctions took effect....
You know - in my experience and communication with traders I’ve noticed that such protracted BS articles and hours spent of justifying some guesswork is the main reason such traders consistently loose money. So consistently that end up putting insane position size because they “feel the market”.

If one puts 1/10 of that effort to just reflect the price dynamics on daily basis and carefully calculated position ranges - the net result is calm sleep, calm nerves and profits in any direction, trend, range, etc...

In the case with USOil - yes it might bounce next week, it might go to 25 in 4 weeks - who cares, as long as on 4h and 1day frames one is keeping the simple rule - buy low. And hedge progressive if this low was not the real “low”, and then restart the sequence from a price bellow that level. Sooner or later the series of no-profit or small losses will be reimbursed when the trend starts in one favour and one will make good profit.

Why people do so much mental waste to analyse political world disruption instead doing simple mathematics?
  • #464
  • Dec 2, 2018 5:40am Dec 2, 2018 5:40am
Quoting michaelpelly
{quote} You know - in my experience and communication with traders I’ve noticed that such protracted BS articles and hours spent of justifying some guesswork is the main reason such traders consistently loose money. So consistently that end up putting insane position size because they “feel the market”. If one puts 1/10 of that effort to just reflect the price dynamics on daily basis and carefully calculated position ranges - the net result is calm sleep, calm nerves and profits in any direction, trend, range, etc... In the case with USOil - yes...

Its BS like this that I trade off every week rather successfully. Price follows fundamentals, not the other way around. You don't need charts to trade or mathematics. It's not guess work, what you are doing is guess work assuming price will do something off historical price and assumption. If they mention reduction numbers and time frames then yes that's an opportunity to go long otherwise you are just assuming
  • #465
  • Dec 2, 2018 6:14am Dec 2, 2018 6:14am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Its BS like this that I trade off every week rather successfully. Price follows fundamentals, not the other way around. You don't need charts to trade or mathematics. It's not guess work, what you are doing is guess work assuming price will do something off historical price and assumption. If they mention reduction numbers and time frames then yes that's an opportunity to go long otherwise you are just assuming
We do same shit, no point to argue :-).

I only disagree that one can point out the point of reversal based on some “analysis”. Point of reversal is usually quite a random affect of a sentimental build up for price direction change. But it is never “obvious” when will happen. This is why I put “trials” to catch any reversal patterns.
  • #466
  • Dec 2, 2018 6:24am Dec 2, 2018 6:24am
Quoting michaelpelly
{quote} We do same shit, no point to argue :-). I only disagree that one can point out the point of reversal based on some “analysis”. Point of reversal is usually quite a random affect of a sentimental build up for price direction change. But it is never “obvious” when will happen. This is why I put “trials” to catch any reversal patterns.
One can but it depends on the type of analysis and news. The analysis I posted sets the theme of expectations and news of ruduction numbers and timing when it is released is the catalyst for a change in direction. Its never about predicting reversals that's a fools way of trading.
  • #467
  • Dec 2, 2018 10:46am Dec 2, 2018 10:46am
Quoting EcoTrader
From oilprice.com, a reputable source I have used for trading. Crude oil has been in freefall, with both Brent and WTI having lost around a third since hitting highs in early October. There are some demand related worries involved as trade wars threaten to slow global growth, but the biggest reasons for the drop are supply related. A couple of months ago, those highs were achieved in anticipation of a disruption to global supply as the Trump administration’s abandonment of the Iran nuclear deal with Iran and the resulting sanctions took effect....
I've also learned to start trusting oilprices.com. Glad I'm not the only one.

Here is a quote I read this weekend that caught my eye: “About $70 per barrel suits us perfectly well considering that the expenditure side of our budget is based on $40 per barrel,” - Putin in mid-November.
If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
  • #468
  • Dec 2, 2018 11:09am Dec 2, 2018 11:09am
DIdn't you guys realize that OilPrice.com did not cover anything about G20 meeting.... are they always like that, if that is the case, their news is lagging behind, and it could jeopardize your trades... maybe they are good in assessing the depth of the industry in general, but you cannot rely on real time news about oil...most of their news are couple of days old...
  • #469
  • Dec 2, 2018 11:10am Dec 2, 2018 11:10am
Quoting brr001
I must say that Oil is mainly driven by Fundamentals, news, and events.... Technical based trading is limited, it not same as currencies...

Currencies are the same. I trade them exclusively off fundamentals and have been returning 10% or more every month consistently for the last 15 months.
  • #470
  • Dec 2, 2018 11:12am Dec 2, 2018 11:12am
oil pre market, climbed to 50.93 still more time to wait, this could change, too early to tell
  • #471
  • Dec 2, 2018 11:13am Dec 2, 2018 11:13am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Currencies are the same. I trade them exclusively off fundamentals and have been returning 10% or more every month consistently for the last 15 months.
I agree with you, currencies you should combine the fundamentals and technicals together... great combination...
  • #472
  • Dec 2, 2018 11:21am Dec 2, 2018 11:21am
Quoting brr001
{quote} I agree with you, currencies you should combine the fundamentals and technicals together... great combination...
I don't use technicals, it muddies the water.
  • #473
  • Dec 2, 2018 11:25am Dec 2, 2018 11:25am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Currencies are the same. I trade them exclusively off fundamentals and have been returning 10% or more every month consistently for the last 15 months.
Nice return rate!
  • #474
  • Dec 2, 2018 11:27am Dec 2, 2018 11:27am
Quoting michaelpelly
{quote} Nice return rate!
Thanks, onward and forward to full-time trading.
  • #475
  • Edited 11:56am Dec 2, 2018 11:28am | Edited 11:56am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} I don't use technicals, it muddies the water.
lol I agree... I use my own mathematical algorithm ... cant trade without it....mostly, I try to understand the fundamentals, and then my algorithm will tell me the right deviation in the right time, and tell me what exactly the market is doing, and price behavior within the same day time frame... then I try to follow the price behavior which is prevalent during that day....most important thing about success is two factors (1) Stop Loss, (2) Do not Over trade.... Once you learn to apply stop loss, then only you will become successful...I am willing to risk unto 2% of my equity capital, i.e. on my $10K account, I am willing to lose $200 on a bad trade

losers bring money to the market... I try to spot the areas, where the retailers are willing to lose money, so that I take the money from them...

Futures, and margin trading is not a Zero Sum Game as they claim, its a Minus Sum Game, in order to win in Minus Sum game, you should be trading over your Head and two shoulders way above average trader to make money, its not easy, and very few people can do this...

Design a trading system, where you can trade less often...

My goal is not to make 10% or millions, my goal is to trade well, if I trade well, money will follow, money is just an indicator how well I am trading... If improve my skills by 5% every month, I will become a genius trader sooner
  • #476
  • Dec 2, 2018 5:11pm Dec 2, 2018 5:11pm
Quoting michaelpelly
{quote} I have long positions in range 49-51 - I guess I’m :-)
woooooow....... What a Gap up, 52.30 !!!!!

I had 50 lots open long over the weekend... Just closed my huge juicy profit.... Congrats....
  • #477
  • Dec 2, 2018 7:17pm Dec 2, 2018 7:17pm
Quoting brr001
{quote} woooooow....... What a Gap up, 52.30 !!!!! I had 50 lots open long over the weekend... Just closed my huge juicy profit.... Congrats....
I call..........
Attached Image
  • #478
  • Dec 2, 2018 10:43pm Dec 2, 2018 10:43pm
Quoting tradestar1
{quote} I call.......... {image}
As I said earlier, this has a tendency to go up $10 in two days... However, I wish I can stay put, but I am too greedy, taking all my profit out, and watch, but will not short now....
  • #479
  • Dec 2, 2018 11:45pm Dec 2, 2018 11:45pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Thanks, onward and forward to full-time trading.
Oil gapped up.

1:0 score for me in price predictions for this week :-).

Your turn .
  • #480
  • Dec 3, 2018 12:00am Dec 3, 2018 12:00am
Quoting brr001
{quote} woooooow....... What a Gap up, 52.30 !!!!! I had 50 lots open long over the weekend... Just closed my huge juicy profit.... Congrats....
Yep! Congratulations! .
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