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Plan the Trade

  • #9,441
  • Nov 26, 2018 2:00pm Nov 26, 2018 2:00pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks Nik (again). the 123/2b is the one even I struggle with (not conceptually but because they happen so fast and wicks are so close to each other on a 30 second chart, it gets confusing and most of the time I lose patience with measuring candles etc). If you can assist us in developing a "visual aid" study, that in itself would be a huge win for those who are struggling out here. Even the PDF that harold shared has some minor tweaks.
Will be difficult to find the time to code a custom study for sierra now, however after the new year, once things settle down, i'll code and share a study with the group, as a visual aid for structure as per Harolds rules.


Quoting VEEFX
{quote}I would still like to understand the order flow mechanics or "footprint" that will indicate or measure or simulate a strong/weak move in price. I think that is essential for us to understand. The secret lies in this element and could be a very powerful validation tool. I have traded momentum for many years and I could not find anything come close to my eyes and "feeling" the speed of price movement.
To properly understand momentum you need to study the two major forces behind price movement. Limit orders (friction) & Market orders (inertia). Both for the Bull team and the Bear team. Price movement is a result of these battles, and therefore its "speed" has less significance than the underlying battle that took place in the orderbook. My recommendation is to duplicate your trading chart and switch the candles to "orderflow candles", or "Numbers bars" as they are called in sierra. Make sure you check the option to copy all drawings from your trading chart so you can observe your entries and other structural drawing. Each day go back and review your trades with the numbers bars and start to take notes of what was happening. This takes time and practice, but you will begin to see patterns emerge from the executed bid/offer data and your "straight to SL" trades. With this data in hand you can begin eliminating the losers and start to analyze the winners. Rinse & Repeat.



Quoting VEEFX
{quote} EDIT: Perhaps, you can tell me what is the right trigger to move SL to BE? Either in distance or timeframe or tick/volume chart or bid/ask delta or whatever works across all your automated strategies.If I am to move BE at 12T profit, I am better off taking BE+6 and get several rapid consecutive wins and get done for the day :-(
Unfortunately there is no singular orderflow BE trigger i can share. Every system and instrument has different requirements, and these tend to evolve over time. That said, a BE should be considered a win. Might sound silly, but very significant IMHO. If you are learning Harolds system i would stick to his parameters.
  • #9,442
  • Nov 26, 2018 2:07pm Nov 26, 2018 2:07pm
Quoting hilmy83
interesting.. i say it'll break upwards sooner or later..we'll see {image}
well it did pop..

if you made money from this call, please provide in tips from your profits to my paypal account. thanks.
  • #9,443
  • Nov 27, 2018 2:02am Nov 27, 2018 2:02am
Rocket ride on a half tank of gas. 280 ticks up and nearly 250 back down in the span of about 30 minutes. Geez the indexes are super sensitive to any news right now. Trade with caution.

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  • #9,444
  • Nov 27, 2018 8:46am Nov 27, 2018 8:46am
i still can't figure out how to make indicators start at certain times. for example volume by price (with chicago time) always start at midnight.
well i tried to set the time at 17:00 (new day open), but doesn't work. i end up using Athens timezne to get it to work, but it messes up with my trading journal times...

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Quoting hilmy83
i still can't figure out how to make indicators start at certain times. for example volume by price (with chicago time) always start at midnight. well i tried to set the time at 17:00 (new day open), but doesn't work. i end up using Athens timezne to get it to work, but it messes up with my trading journal times... {image}
this is tradingview. starts at every new daily bar...

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  • #9,445
  • Nov 27, 2018 9:30am Nov 27, 2018 9:30am
nice day today 2 pullbacks with thrust following and a 2b break pullback
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  • #9,446
  • Nov 27, 2018 9:32am Nov 27, 2018 9:32am
I blame Harold - I am not smart enough to trade his way but I keep looking at the NAS !
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #9,447
  • Nov 27, 2018 9:35am Nov 27, 2018 9:35am
Quoting turnip15
I blame Harold - I am not smart enough to trade his way but I keep looking at the NAS ! {image}
i accept full responsibility
  • #9,448
  • Nov 27, 2018 10:04am Nov 27, 2018 10:04am
nice work harold, been helping a friend with a remodel and just getting back to trading. as everyone else says--thanks for keep us updated on your view of the mkt and best ways to capitalize on it
  • #9,449
  • Nov 27, 2018 10:10am Nov 27, 2018 10:10am
Intresting day. Had 4x BE, 2 loses and 1 win and ended up with +24 One of the loses should not have been a trade and on one of the BE trades I manually moved to BE instead of just letting it run with the trade settings, just after it hit BE price reversed and moved to +40.. Last trade was a 123 reversal and this time I sat on my hands to not manually move to BE and let the trade run resulting in a +40.
  • #9,450
  • Nov 27, 2018 10:16am Nov 27, 2018 10:16am
+42 6 trades, got the nice 2b on Divs chart (fastest +25 I ever earned )
'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #9,451
  • Nov 27, 2018 10:18am Nov 27, 2018 10:18am
Nice work guys
  • #9,452
  • Nov 27, 2018 11:07am Nov 27, 2018 11:07am
Quoting turnip15
I blame Harold - I am not smart enough to trade his way but I keep looking at the NAS ! {image}
That's just what I thought, at first.

If he can do it, so can you.

I tried the Rocky price method (I assume thats what you are using), but after several slaps in the face I retired it. Works for Rocky, but I like tight stops.

All you need is a free copy of sierra, +50 ema for direction and practice his setups in sim. After this I just started to see things differently with the speed and controls available.

Best thing I ever did and I owe Divergence for that.
'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #9,453
  • Nov 27, 2018 11:21am Nov 27, 2018 11:21am
Wait for trend locate pullback area notice if a thrust bar is there then trade the pullback manage trade make money. Trend is determined after a 123 or 2b breaks that's the whole system
  • #9,454
  • Nov 27, 2018 11:22am Nov 27, 2018 11:22am
Quoting hilmy83
i still can't figure out how to make indicators start at certain times. for example volume by price (with chicago time) always start at midnight. well i tried to set the time at 17:00 (new day open), but doesn't work. i end up using Athens timezne to get it to work, but it messes up with my trading journal times... {image} {quote} this is tradingview. starts at every new daily bar... {image}
I have these in my studies. just change the start and end time to match your global timezone settings. Mine is set to pacific time.
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Staying in my lane...
  • #9,455
  • Nov 27, 2018 11:34am Nov 27, 2018 11:34am
Quoting Divergence
nice day today 2 pullbacks with thrust following and a 2b break pullback {image}
I could not watch/trade today. You are the maestro if you have no loss or BE trades today!

Questions:
Would you categorize 123 as trend following and 2B as reversal trades?
Was that red circled 2B trade valid resulting in loss?
would you have placed entries towards the ones marked X?
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Staying in my lane...
  • #9,456
  • Nov 27, 2018 11:45am Nov 27, 2018 11:45am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I could not watch/trade today. You are the maestro if you have no loss or BE trades today! Questions: Would you categorize 123 as trend following and 2B as reversal trades? Was that red circled 2B trade valid resulting in loss? would you have placed entries towards the ones marked X? {image}
123 and 2b breaks result= change of trend. Neither of those 2 are 2bs until point 2 gets taken out. As for the speed of the 2b pullback it just spiked not time to cancel happened to fast
  • #9,457
  • Nov 27, 2018 2:06pm Nov 27, 2018 2:06pm
Had a quick look a moment ago and didn't take long to find a nice entry;

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GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #9,458
  • Nov 27, 2018 2:39pm Nov 27, 2018 2:39pm
Quoting Divergence
{quote} 123 and 2b breaks result= change of trend. Neither of those 2 are 2bs until point 2 gets taken out. As for the speed of the 2b pullback it just spiked not time to cancel happened to fast
I need a whole frigg'ng bottle of russian vodka to understand this darn system LMAO

Perhaps this is just semantics in my head.... one more time if I may :-

 

  1. 123 pattern setup indicates a POTENTIAL change in the prevailing trend measured via HH/HL for uptrend or LH/LL for downtrend
  2. The pullback to 123 level CONFIRMS a trend reversal INITIATION+TRANSITION from HH/HL to LH/LL for up>down and LH/LL to HH/HL from down> up trend.
  3. The pending order entry in the direction opposite of (or against i.e. BuyLimit if 2>3 and SellLimit if 2<3 in price) the pullback ANTICIPATES a trend reversal continuation
  4. AND the successful outcome (i.e. 25TP hit) results from "trend following" measured between the '3" candle and exit at which TP is hit.

FYI - I am seeing what Nick sees in regards to order imbalance but need more focus on the thrust-ness of that darn candle. On 30 seconds TF, it last price moves tremendously fast leaving my brain to see up/down motion and not the setup/pattern itself. Hence the ask for a visual aid study. Without that, I just am close to giving up on this style. Perhaps, I am the only one experiencing consecutive BEs / SLs and infrequent TPs in market replay. Looking for just one success story if anyone is willing to share :-(

Staying in my lane...
  • #9,459
  • Nov 27, 2018 2:46pm Nov 27, 2018 2:46pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I need a whole frigg'ng bottle of russian vodka to understand this darn system LMAO :-(
It seems to me that you are over-complicating the whole thing.

The trick is matching the size of the 123's together with which underlying trend (HH/HL or LL/LH's etc) that you are trading or watching. That's where nothing can make up for EXPERIENCE.

Determine the trend FIRST, then look for a pullback which ends with a strong thrust back into main trend. Then chance that level being retested. Placement of order is another area to play with (halfway distance of wick/tail or top/bottom of candle body of candle which ends the pullback etc).
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #9,460
  • Nov 27, 2018 2:47pm Nov 27, 2018 2:47pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I need a whole frigg'ng bottle of russian vodka to understand this darn system LMAO Perhaps this is just semantics in my head.... one more time if I may :- 123 pattern setup indicates a POTENTIAL change in the prevailing trend measured via HH/HL for uptrend or LH/LL for downtrend The pullback to 123 level CONFIRMS a trend reversal INITIATION+TRANSITION from HH/HL to LH/LL for up>down and LH/LL to HH/HL from down> up trend. The pending order entry in the direction opposite of (or against i.e. BuyLimit if 2>3 and SellLimit if 2<3 in price)...
From my fair lady: By George I think he's got it. The rain from Spain falls mainly in the plains
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