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  • #16,341
  • Nov 25, 2018 9:03pm Nov 25, 2018 9:03pm
SPX 10 pts call diags go on for a small credit, looking for at least a 100 pt claw back in the next two weeks.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,342
  • Nov 25, 2018 10:08pm Nov 25, 2018 10:08pm
SPX weekly charts look like it is ready to bounce up in the next 2-3 weeks, most likely to the 2750 area and possibly up to just over 2800. Hopefully that will happen in the next two weeks! Might have a little more down this week, but if everything is up, those targets should be hit.
  • #16,343
  • Nov 25, 2018 10:16pm Nov 25, 2018 10:16pm
Futures indicate we will most likely have a gap up in the morning, but will be looking at:

AAPL Dec14 185 CALL @ $1.60 or better

Chances are, it will not be available at that price, but AAPL looks good for a CALL sometimes tomorrow....
  • #16,344
  • Nov 25, 2018 10:58pm Nov 25, 2018 10:58pm
with you long AAPL, a lot depends this week on some good news out of the G20 re China trade war
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,345
  • Nov 25, 2018 11:03pm Nov 25, 2018 11:03pm
to protect big downside on diagonals I often buy cheap verticals in front of the diagonal front strike...risk $100 to make >$1,000 - me like
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,346
  • Nov 26, 2018 7:58am Nov 26, 2018 7:58am
How often are spreads like that profitable?

It seems like I could make a calendar spread work for me if the dates were spread out a couple of weeks apart....like if I saw SBUX close to making a move up within the next 3 weeks, but it's not ready to move yet, I could sell the 66.50 CALL for Dec7 and buy the 66.50 CALL for Dec18, with the rationale that it will go above $66.50, but not before Dec7. So I would be able to keep all the money I sold the Dec7 CALL for, plus own the calls for when the stock actually makes it's move. Does that make sense?
  • #16,347
  • Nov 26, 2018 8:40am Nov 26, 2018 8:40am
Out of this one:

WMT Dec7 94 CALL up to $2.60 from $1.90
  • #16,348
  • Nov 26, 2018 9:22am Nov 26, 2018 9:22am
Quoting moneymaker2
How often are spreads like that profitable? It seems like I could make a calendar spread work for me if the dates were spread out a couple of weeks apart....like if I saw SBUX close to making a move up within the next 3 weeks, but it's not ready to move yet, I could sell the 66.50 CALL for Dec7 and buy the 66.50 CALL for Dec18, with the rationale that it will go above $66.50, but not before Dec7. So I would be able to keep all the money I sold the Dec7 CALL for, plus own the calls for when the stock actually makes it's move. Does that make sense?...
your trade makes sense, sure. calendars and diagonals are a good way to trade directionally, but with a reduced cost basis. There are risks that you have to understand & perhaps mitigate. I make money on them about 1/2 the time, I guess. Like everything in speculation, you do well if you are able to buy low. The time to buy calendars is when the iv's have bottomed but you still expect a directional range toward your target strike. Also, calendars benefit from rising iv.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,349
  • Nov 26, 2018 10:21am Nov 26, 2018 10:21am
Got into AAPL at a better price than I expected:

AAPL Dec14 185 CALL @ $1.36
  • #16,350
  • Nov 26, 2018 12:18pm Nov 26, 2018 12:18pm
And got into some more AAPL:

AAPL Dec14 185 CALL @ $0.99

That makes average cost of just over $1.18. I'm good with that.....
  • #16,351
  • Nov 26, 2018 3:54pm Nov 26, 2018 3:54pm
will be looking to get into NVDA 170 calls Dec7 exp for around $1.05, it was last traded for $1.19 today. NVDA closing price was 153.05 and is now trading lower at 150.43 in the after hours, if it can stay above 150 and trade higher during tomorrows trading day then I be in tomorrow. May get a better price too, we shall see
  • #16,352
  • Nov 26, 2018 4:41pm Nov 26, 2018 4:41pm
Well, President Trump stepped on Apple today after hours....problem was he never said he was going to hit iPhones with a 10% tariff, just "Maybe...Maybe" and that he "could" impose a 10% tariff and people could handle it.

I doubt seriously if iPhones will be affected at all, but noise like what he was saying in the interview pretty much killed any upside for at least this week, maybe next week, too.

The only way to save people's money is to come out with a statement saying definitively they will not be affected, otherwise lots of AAPL option investors are gonna have a less than Merry Christmas...
  • #16,353
  • Nov 26, 2018 5:39pm Nov 26, 2018 5:39pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
will be looking to get into NVDA 170 calls Dec7 exp for around $1.05, it was last traded for $1.19 today. NVDA closing price was 153.05 and is now trading lower at 150.43 in the after hours, if it can stay above 150 and trade higher during tomorrows trading day then I be in tomorrow. May get a better price too, we shall see
NVDA looks good on the daily and weekly charts, but tomorrow will most likely be a down day, so you'll get in cheaper....might even be able to get a better strike price for the same money?!...
  • #16,354
  • Nov 27, 2018 9:23am Nov 27, 2018 9:23am
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/histo...122105871.html

A Powell put unlikely. I want to see that rally into the Dec FOMC that I expected, DJT needs to help with some good China news or at least shut up and go play golf. If the FOMC hikes in Dec and forecasts more hawk for 2019, we will see deeper slides into Q1 - possibly a 25% dip. Throw in some political turmoil and things will be interesting for volatility hunters...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,355
  • Nov 27, 2018 9:24am Nov 27, 2018 9:24am
Quoting moneymaker2
I doubt seriously if iPhones will be affected at all, but noise like what he was saying in the interview pretty much killed any upside for at least this week, maybe next week, too.
Well, not near as bad as I thought it was going to be, basically a non-event. Makes me think that AAPL is actually a lot stronger (and oversold) than a lot of people realize....
  • #16,356
  • Nov 27, 2018 9:40am Nov 27, 2018 9:40am
you can look at the charts and see oversold and overbought, but you also have to look at what is happening in the markets as a whole. Oversold AAPL may look like it is due for a rally any day, but if the market as a whole is sliding down, that oversold signal is worthless.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,357
  • Edited 10:33am Nov 27, 2018 10:21am | Edited 10:33am
Quoting The Fool
you can look at the charts and see oversold and overbought, but you also have to look at what is happening in the markets as a whole. Oversold AAPL may look like it is due for a rally any day, but if the market as a whole is sliding down, that oversold signal is worthless.
That is why you have to look at the charts for the market overall. A weekly and monthly chart of the OEX and DIA will give you a good indication where the market is headed, and if it is headed that way for any length of time. It is that length of time that is important, as the markets will always move up and down.

The extreme overbought/oversold signals I use are very powerful. I have made $2+ on CALL options on days the market's dropped 200+ points many times. Granted, a rising tide lifts all boats, but you can find stocks going against the major indexes all the time.

Remember, if all these financial people that can tell you everything you need to know about the markets every day really knew what to expect, they wouldn't be working for someone else, they would be taking advantage of that understanding by trading the markets. At any given day you can find different analyst that will have "Sell", "Buy", and "Hold" recommendations on the same stock on the same day.

Years ago, brokers used to call 200 clients and tell 100 to buy stock XYZ and 100 to sell stock XYZ. Whichever group he was correct on, he would take that group of a hundred people and tell 50 to buy ABC and 50 to sell ABC. Whichever group he was correct on he would then take that group of fifty and tell 25 to buy WXY and 25 to sell WXY. The group he was correct on he would then take that group of twenty five and tell 12 to buy LMN and 13 to sell LMN. The group he was correct on he would then take that group of twelve and tell 6 to buy EFG and 6 to sell EFG. Whatever group he was correct on would be his clients for life and would get all their friends to come to this broker since he was a "stock guru" because every recommendation he has told them was fantastic!

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  • #16,358
  • Nov 27, 2018 11:35am Nov 27, 2018 11:35am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} That is why you have to look at the charts for the market overall........Years ago, brokers used to call 200 clients and tell 100 to buy stock XYZ and 100 to sell stock XYZ.
lol....well, this gets into a whole long discussion about TA vs. FA, and we can skip it. The fact is, the chart only shows what has been, not what will be. There's validity in the concept of correlating and extrapolating past returns into the future - but it's important at least to acknowledge that known, future events (like Fed rate hikes, elections, etc) can and will have dramatic effects on the market as a whole. If the current FOMC stays the course on hiking the ffr, stocks will not rally like it's 2016....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #16,359
  • Nov 27, 2018 11:45am Nov 27, 2018 11:45am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} NVDA looks good on the daily and weekly charts, but tomorrow will most likely be a down day, so you'll get in cheaper....might even be able to get a better strike price for the same money?!...
I did get in and cheaper for 95c, I did put in for less but couldn't get filled, still same strike and Dec 7 exp, I'm looking at the aapl trade your in too but for me its a little early plus I want to see what Trump/XI will say about trade
  • #16,360
  • Nov 27, 2018 1:09pm Nov 27, 2018 1:09pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} lol....well, this gets into a whole long discussion about TA vs. FA, and we can skip it. The fact is, the chart only shows what has been, not what will be. There's validity in the concept of correlating and extrapolating past returns into the future - but it's important at least to acknowledge that known, future events (like Fed rate hikes, elections, etc) can and will have dramatic effects on the market as a whole. If the current FOMC stays the course on hiking the ffr, stocks will not rally like it's 2016....
I do agree that events can and will move the market, but I've found that most things like rate hikes or such as that have short term effects, as they tend to be priced into the market already. It is only those totally unexpected things that create total chaos, like 9/11 or something that isn't foreseen. I just can't put too much stock into it when people say the market is down today because of worries about trade, or up today because of dovish comments from some commissioner somewhere; it's like their job is just to come up with a reason, rather than say "It just is!". Heck, they used to study how Fed Chairman Greenspan would be carrying his briefcase when he would go into a meeting as an indication of whether a rate cut was coming or not or how much it would be if it did.

For what I do in the market, I don't care about the "WHY" as much as I do about the "WHAT" and "WHEN". If Home Depot chart shows it is overbought and ready to drop in the next couple of days, I don't care if that drop was due to fewer houses being built because of high interest rates, or someone on MSNBC thinks Lowes is a better buy or they are closing stores or whatever. All of this data mining and knowledge of all the financial details of the general market or a stock as a single entity is a waste of time unless it can be boiled down to answer what all traders want to know: What is the stock/index about to do and for how long will it do it?

For my purposes, I can usually get that answer from my charts and about 15 minutes on a good news site.
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