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Plan the Trade

  • #9,401
  • Edited 2:36pm Nov 23, 2018 2:12pm | Edited 2:36pm
You know technically science is suppose to work the same way follow the evidence where ever it leads. But as long as it doesn't lead to GOD. Bottom line follow the evidence where ever it leads even in trading or toward GOD
  • #9,402
  • Nov 23, 2018 4:38pm Nov 23, 2018 4:38pm
Quoting Divergence
You know technically science is suppose to work the same way follow the evidence where ever it leads. But as long as it doesn't lead to GOD. Bottom line follow the evidence where ever it leads even in trading or toward GOD
Way to go H.
Assimilation of collective knowledge:
Attached Image
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #9,403
  • Nov 23, 2018 4:53pm Nov 23, 2018 4:53pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Way to go H. Assimilation of collective knowledge: {image}
Support and Resistance is Futile.
  • #9,404
  • Nov 23, 2018 5:36pm Nov 23, 2018 5:36pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} EDIT: I still think your edge is in your experience in cancelling your pending orders or decision to TP early or when to move SL to BE. Rule-based Automation of any kind will quickly drain the account from what I see and understand. I hope Nick succeed in his endeavor (if he is still trying).

Vee,

The endeavor of replicating Harold system into a fully autonomous algorithm has long been achieved. This is why i have said, and will continue to say with full confidence that Harold's system is completely objective and profitable. Data does not lie, especially when the data set is very large.

I have tried to shed light on some of the elements of the system that people have trouble with, namely S/D and thrust bars, but the truth is these elements have a much smaller impact on the overall system than another more important element of the system, namely, the trader. Few people want to hear this, but its a stone cold fact. The human, mouse and keyboard in-hand, is by far the weakest link of every system. Luckily, this thread has fostered a healthy environment were traders help each other and progress is being made by many.

Some traders will achieve comparable results to harold, others will not, but it wont be because of thrust bars or any singular element, but rather an overall state of mind which permits sharp execution, solid discipline, and unwavering belief in the system. Without this state of mind even the holy grail would be a losing system.

Harold (and few others) have laid it all out, start to finish, soup to nuts . . . The system is objective, the system is profitable, all it requires is understanding of each individual component, and consistent execution. Plain and simple.

Best,
N
  • #9,405
  • Nov 23, 2018 11:16pm Nov 23, 2018 11:16pm
so i've come up with a trader's theorem. let me know what you think

((T+E(p)-C)-L)^S=P

((trader+execution(price integrity)-cost)-lot size)^strategy=profit

strategy=must have positive EV strategy, larger EV the better

trader= must be positive (absent of negative actions (tilt,revenge)

execution=must be mistake free most of the time (positive)-and all signals must be taken per rules in order to achieve systems expectancy

price integrity=must be consistent and absent of price manipulation by brokers and without excessive negative slippage

cost=spread/commission/fees -need to be as low as possible

lot size=must be within reason-too much will overcome law of large numbers before profit is realized

profit=
  • #9,406
  • Nov 24, 2018 4:29am Nov 24, 2018 4:29am
Quoting hilmy83
so i've come up with a trader's theorem. let me know what you think ((T+E(p)-C)-L)^S=P ((trader+execution(price integrity)-cost)-lot size)^strategy=profit strategy=must have positive EV strategy, larger EV the better trader= must be positive (absent of negative actions (tilt,revenge) execution=must be mistake free most of the time (positive)-and all signals must be taken per rules in order to achieve systems expectancy price integrity=must be consistent and absent of price manipulation by brokers and without excessive negative slippage cost=spread/commission/fees...
I think you should stop smoking whatever substance you are abusing
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #9,407
  • Nov 24, 2018 9:58am Nov 24, 2018 9:58am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} I think you should stop smoking whatever substance you are abusing
look man i'm on the path of enlightment..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,408
  • Nov 24, 2018 1:04pm Nov 24, 2018 1:04pm
Think this video will be helpful to some looking for consistent daily income in trading...

Inserted Video


The Benjamin Formula
It's in fear when people show what they truly value.
  • #9,409
  • Nov 24, 2018 2:09pm Nov 24, 2018 2:09pm
Quoting ensale
Think this video will be helpful to some looking for consistent daily income in trading... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKm4MBVPyeY The Benjamin Formula
Blah blah blah another prop firm who makes their money selling their how to trade course Really!!!
  • #9,410
  • Nov 24, 2018 2:10pm Nov 24, 2018 2:10pm
Quoting Divergence
{quote} Blah blah blah another prop firm who makes their money selling their how to trade course Really!!!
I told you to check their course? just watch the video, get the info and move on..
It's in fear when people show what they truly value.
  • #9,411
  • Nov 24, 2018 2:21pm Nov 24, 2018 2:21pm
Quoting ensale
{quote} I told you to check their course? just watch the video, get the info and move on..
Did and moved on seen this a ton of times
  • #9,412
  • Nov 24, 2018 4:01pm Nov 24, 2018 4:01pm
Do the methods presented in this forum need any dilution? All that is required is focus and practice, and a regular income can be achieved.

All that is left then is to capitalise on the experience gained.
'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #9,413
  • Edited 9:35am Nov 25, 2018 1:38am | Edited 9:35am
Quoting Nik-Nyc
{quote} Vee, The endeavor of replicating Harold system into a fully autonomous algorithm has long been achieved. This is why i have said, and will continue to say with full confidence that Harold's system is completely objective and profitable. Data does not lie, especially when the data set is very large. I have tried to shed light on some of the elements of the system that people have trouble with, namely S/D and thrust bars, but the truth is these elements have a much smaller impact on the overall system than another more important element of...
Thanks Nick for your response. Wondering when did you go live with this automation? I have no doubt in your abilities and understanding of the market and wish to get to your level some day soon to have some meaningful conversation around volumes. I am not there yet and definitely not even close to any automation in Sierra. With that said, I wish you would engage us in this thread and share your automated results every day to improve our understanding as I am also (the only) believer of data as data never lies.
With that said, my concern is not whether a replicable automaton of what Harold does is net profitable. We all know he is profitable as he is showing it to you every day. If you could confirm some specifics that I am challenging here:

  1. I won't get into your SD thrust bar entry setups as I am not qualified.
  2. Your automation should have atleast couple of order cancellations based on the speed/momentum. If you do, how are you quantifying measurement of speed of price coming towards your pending entry order?
  3. Your automation should have atleast a couple of smaller than 25T wins
  4. Your automation should measure the bar length and if more than 8-12 ticks, place entries appropriately and most of such entries will have SL at tip of wick. Does your automation do the half-bar calculation?
  5. Does your automation blindly bracket at 25T TP and 12T SL? Move SL to BE @ +2 when 6 in profit and @ +10 when 17 in profit? Most of my trades are taken out at BE during market replay when SL is automatically moved unlike Harold who is subjective on moving his SLs or closing his entries before the target 25T is hit.
  6. A simple test of "Man Vs. Machine" next week with Harold would help us connect on these items. Automating decision-making based on speed/momentum is very hard for my coding experience (which is mostly MT4)

Regardless, I applaud your efforts. Please continue to share and contribute your experience the encourage the noobs in futures market towards attaining success. I completely agree about what you said about trader's execution being the weak link. That was the main reason why I began my automation journey and hopefully I will get into that soon with Sierra. For now, I am taking baby steps in trying several things that have worked for me and keeping it simple.

Staying in my lane...
  • #9,414
  • Nov 25, 2018 8:05am Nov 25, 2018 8:05am
Hello,
There is a person who speaks French here and who uses the method of Div 100% ?
If so, is it possible to join me in PV?

I have a hard time understanding the video of Divergence.(thank you ) :
Inserted Video

I had come a while ago, but with my language and lack of health, I was discouraged.

Having more time, I come back trying to understand.

I would really like to understand the logic and the operation.
If no French, a charitable soul to write me the specific rules?

I understand:
1- We trace the first 5 minutes of the opening.
2- Then we will try to identify a 123 pattern in the trend? (with big candles?)
3-We will wait for the retracement to return (how to determine the return line) or wait for a break of point 2?
4-If too strong candle during the return, I do not return, I cancel the order and wait for a following.

Sorry for my language. I hope I'm pretty clear.
I will already try to understand 100% the logic / method / specificity, before moving on.

Thank you very much, I wish you a good Sunday to everyone
  • #9,415
  • Nov 25, 2018 9:57am Nov 25, 2018 9:57am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} look man i'm on the path of enlightment.. {image}
Or try this perhaps to channel whatever crap life throws at us mortals.

Inserted Video


Also, if I may, looking at your recent losses, avoid vwap during the first and last hour of trading session. As with all moving averages, sudden spikes or volatility skews the Fading activity from the standard deviations.
Staying in my lane...
  • #9,416
  • Nov 25, 2018 10:28am Nov 25, 2018 10:28am
Just glancing at a few threads in FF about price action and yet what they discuss is not even price action per say. To makes things clear I use PA but it stands for pattern action
  • #9,417
  • Edited 2:00pm Nov 25, 2018 12:19pm | Edited 2:00pm
Hi V,

The last thing this thread needs is a discussion on algorithms/ea hijacking the healthy discussion. Therefore i will answer your questions in this singular post, also because i think there might be some overall benefit to all traders.

First of all, the automation of Harolds system was an excersice i assisted a talented programmers who was looking for a worthy system to automate. While his development proficiency is great, his market mechanic knowledge was at a beginners level, and so my involvement was in helping dissect harold's system in order to automate it correctly.

Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I won't get into your SD thrust bar entry setups as I am not qualified.
S/D & Thrust bars are both important and simple to understand. They are two sides of the same coin. A good demand level is nothing more then thick placements of buy limit orders. It is passive buying. Thrust bars are also buying, however, they are market buy orders (aggressive). You see once a good demand level has absorbed all the market sellers willing to sell at the level/zone, buyers only have one option to keep buying, and that is a to hit the Market button. In a nutshell, the demand bar & thrust bar are both buying, but one is passive, and the other is aggressive. Harold has said many times that the best SD level have proper thrust bars immediately following, and this is true because the thrust bar signals the end of the passive phase and the beginning of the aggressive phase. If you can ready orderflow, s/d and thrust bars are easy to identify and code.


Quoting VEEFX
{quote}Your automation should have atleast couple of order cancellations based on the speed/momentum. If you do, how are you quantifying measurement of speed of price coming towards your pending entry order?
Correct, there are many order cancellation mechanism, but the ones you are referring to a not time based. These cancellations occur because of orderflow strengthening during the pullback phase. You do not want to have large orders, stacked imbalances, or absorption occur against you in the pullback phase. If these are detected and meet the required thresholds, order is canceled. Also, remember that Harold used to trade volume/tick charts before and time has little significance on this type of data.

Quoting VEEFX
{quote}Your automation should have atleast a couple of smaller than 25T wins
Yes, when in a trade and certain ordeflow based calculations are strengthening against you, aggressive trails or early exits are triggered. This was and continues to be a very large discussion point. Too deep a dive to discuses here, but as Harold says, nobody ever went broke taking profit. (sidenote: a trade is never closed for less than 1:1 RR, rather take the BE+)


Quoting VEEFX
{quote}Your automation should measure the bar length and if more than 8-12 ticks, place entries appropriately and most of such entries will have SL at tip of wick. Does your automation do the half-bar calculation?
Correct, SL were never placed intrabar, minimum is one tick above/below hi/low. This meant some trades never connected (although we did test chase limit orders which did "work"), however this has become less of a issue when traded on volume/tick/range charts.


Quoting VEEFX
{quote}Does your automation blindly bracket at 25T TP and 12T SL? Move SL to BE @ +2 when 6 in profit and @ +10 when 17 in profit? Most of my trades are taken out at BE during market replay when SL is automatically moved unlike Harold who is subjective on moving his SLs or closing his entries before the target 25T is hit.
Initially, the trade management was built as laid out by harold, and of course was profitable. That said, once the "timeframes" became smaller and the trades more frequent many changes were made. Trade management is were each individual traders has the most latitude (after BE is achieved).


Quoting VEEFX
{quote}A simple test of "Man Vs. Machine" next week with Harold would help us connect on these items. Automating decision-making based on speed/momentum is very hard for my coding experience (which is mostly MT4)
Sorry to disappoint but this type of test will not occur. Personally, i do not live trade this algo as i have other trend following systems that i've coded myself and therefore prefer. Secondly, the trader who did most of the heavy lifting on this project is not a fan of FF. Lastly, it would simply be a distraction. That said, should anyone be interested in automating any portion of harolds system, or any system, through the analysis and calculation of orderflow data, i am happy to lend a hand.


The most important point i wish to convey is that once the switch has been made to the futures market, which is completely transparent, every market event can be analyzed, dissected, and eventually exploited. Nothing needs to ever be a mystery ever again. Why do some pinbars start a new trend/long-corrections and others fail? Orderflow can answer that question. Why do some extended ranges break to the hi side and others to the lo side. Orderflow can explain it and show you the correct direction before the break. Why does some S/R hold and others break? Oderflow analysis will show you. Why are some EW swing counts 7/9/11? Orderflow can show you the last wing. Why are some S/D levels with thrust bars excellent areas to place limit order back into the trend after the pullback? You see my point.



We trade Price, therefore price is king, but if you want to know what the king is likely to do next, ask the Queen (orderflow) she is really in charge any way :-)



N.
  • #9,418
  • Nov 25, 2018 1:06pm Nov 25, 2018 1:06pm
Wow talk about thorough analysis thanks nik for breaking it down.when I started trading this way I was just looking for the best place to take a pullback within the current trend. I use 123 and 2b breaks to determine current trend. If those are having trouble with 123s Google law of the charts that's where it all started for me
  • #9,419
  • Nov 25, 2018 1:52pm Nov 25, 2018 1:52pm
Quoting Divergence
Wow talk about thorough analysis thanks nik for breaking it down.when I started trading this way I was just looking for the best place to take a pullback within the current trend. I use 123 and 2b breaks to determine current trend. If those are having trouble with 123s Google law of the charts that's where it all started for me
Hi Div,

Glad you enjoyed it.

I should have also emphasized that the single most critical component effecting profitability of the algo designed based on your system was the 123 & 2b logic. Almost all the other components can be tweaked and changed without major differences to the bottom line. It all starts with 123/2b, so everyone should focus their attention there.
  • #9,420
  • Nov 25, 2018 2:25pm Nov 25, 2018 2:25pm
Here's pdf of 123s what I call a 2b is a broken 123 pattern where point 3 takes out point 1 then price takes out 2 point with no pullback
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf FREE_EBOOK_The_Law_of_Charts_TLOC.pdf   973 KB | 3,199 downloads
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