Formula One Breakout Eas

Anyway - look how busy the thread is. Check your mail in a few mins.

Everything looks fine!

Everythings fine just very quiet !

silence for the storm....

just doing sum tests, but not ready yet to post results

and as always just reading and thanx for the music...oh no thats so... abba

something else

I gave feedback in this post, but clearly failed as scrum master.

If Claudia's simple dreams EA is to succeed short term (measured in terms of member participation), modifications are needed.
Trading is a game of getting the upper hand objectively observing a large number of trades and its frequency distribution.
A breakout EA - IMHO - is the closest one can get you a coin toss: heads or tails.
It doesn't matter what way the market goes or the direction it breaks out, as long as in the long run the results are positive.

Finding the right combo (pair, timeframe, session, min/max range, ...) is an arduous task.
Of course forward testing is fun, but it's a hit or miss thing and it will take at least 6-12 months to get a grasp of what is working and what is not. 6-12 months on 1 pair that is... Which is why most people lose interest quickly.

Run a backtest from the 2nd Jan 2017 - 16th Nov 2018 using the zipped .set file in attach (I used the Claudia's dreams V2.00 EA to run the test, spread 5 points) and compare your results to "mine" to see the differences.



The first thing you will notice is that the equity curve using "your" EA V2.00 starts sloping down the moment the first daylight savings time occurs !

The EA user wants to place a breakout order 1 hour into the London session, but in reality it's placing it during Frankfurt Open or maybe 2 hours into the London session. That is a huge difference in the long run and it is impossible to get a proof of concept using backtesting and looking for profitable combos.

Realistically, based on a representative trade sample size using a breakout EA you will get a hitrate of 50-ish % and be able to get a profit factor between 1.35-2.0, a return to DD ratio of 4.5-10 over a +10 year period. Full auto, full stop.

To achieve this, you will need the elements I outlined in my first post in this thread.
1. Implementation of DST
2. Time reference offset for open/close trades in minutes (Sydney (daily) open/close, Tokyo open/close, London open/close and NY open/close).
i.e.: set buy stop 30 minutes after Tokyo open, using a 150 minutes reference candle for breakout with TP 15/SL 20 pips.
i.e. 2: set buy stop 60 minutes after London open, using a 240 minutes reference candle for breakout with TP open / SL reference candle size in pips, move stoploss to breakeven at 50 pips and close out trade at London close -60 minutes.

Speaking about handing things on a silver platter, the equity curve screenshot above corresponds to example #2.

I have not tested most pairs yet, but to give you an idea of a balanced (using return to DD ratio as main risk criterion) breakout portfolio, see the pdf.

Happy trading.
LuXing

Thanks for detailed post. I don't believe you understand what we are doing here - has nothing to do with London or Frankfurt. That is actually the whole point !

Subscribe to me there's an explorer up.

Hi Claudia,

Well, I see 2 main scenarios of what you gals are trying to do;

1. Try to develop an EA that generates profits requiring minimal intervention or even better - unattended
2. Have an in depth discussion of daylight savings time, trading session opening times and the way these affect our bodily functions and whathaveyounot ;-)

I have been and will continue to work on scenario #1.
Having said that and reading your comment, I must have misread post #1 and completely missed the "raison d'être" of this thread.
Oh well, not to worry. At least I handed the keys, it is up to you guys to fire up the engine of the F1 car.

Cheers,
LuXing

Ok - scenario 1 is the way agree totally.

Things have changed a lot since we set out. Check out the explorer you'll see what I mean.

Thanks for the input.

To check if EA works properly in my platform and specially if I am able to run it, I have set it in your breakout Claudia, and with your template. At the moment, the BO seems to be set right I´m waiting for breakout and open trades. If all is ok with my MT4 platform, tomorrow I can put in in other different time slots and play a bit with it...

Perfect, trade open. Of course, I had not doubt of Retina works, but rather my ability to set up it correctly. Great work Retina and thanks for sharing Claudia.

Hi yall. Nice work. Gave it a shot and here it is live! Will keep testing.

Gold/$ Another winner!

Anyone uses "lots in percent" money management?

First losing night still up 15.7% for the week.

Still not taking opposite orders for me and there is some issue with "lots in percent" position sizing setting.

Haven't used "lots in percent" so can't help there. Opposite orders works fine though - wish it hadn't last night.

Had an awesome night with the system in its OOTB form. I must say that in my 10 years in the financial markets, this system makes the most sense and so far it shows. Really liking it and I must tip my hat off and give a warm Texas salute to these fine ladies for their efforts!

Great to hear and thanks. What pairs you trading and times ?

Hi and thanks. Well I'm in Houston, TX USA. The ea kicked in last night around 8:00 pm CST and has been going since. Trading E/U, E/J , U/J, USA30, XAU/USD

Interesting - subscribe to me there's an explorer up.